Bitcoin is Heading Lower... And That's a Good Thing? | Market Cycle Secrets

Ajouté : 2026-06-02

[00:00:00][music] >> We've seen the planets. You know what the outlook is, but that is entirely based on planetary motion.

[00:00:12]Um, now let's see what macro is saying.

[00:00:15]So again, let's start here with a weekly chart of um of of Bitcoin because they're lining up again, guys. I'm not making this up. You know I'm not because we're we've been looking at this forever.

[00:00:27]Uh, so we're looking at this.

[00:00:29]Uh, let's copy this this line. Boom.

[00:00:32]Boom.

[00:00:33]And macro is saying the same thing that Bitcoin appears to be doing. And so we've been looking at this February bottom since last year.

[00:00:43]We've been talking about a Q4 correction since Q4 of last year.

[00:00:48]We were expecting a sell-off into February. So I called it a Q1 uh bottom because I wasn't sure if it was going to be February or March or or January. I personally actually started buying Bitcoin in late January um because it was very close to this to to to these dates, these February dates, but it was we were expecting this. So we expected the rally. It was nowhere near as strong as I personally expected. I thought Bitcoin was might go to 90K or 100K because that's what liquidity said.

[00:01:19]That's what the bond market suggested.

[00:01:20]But no, we had the war. We have this.

[00:01:23]This is what I'm landing on right now.

[00:01:25]What What happened here is look at the the orange line, which is Bitcoin, versus the other two lines. And what you see is this.

[00:01:33]The second half of March was bearish.

[00:01:35]Now I know the Japanese N2 shows this correction, but there is an alternative interpretation. The alternative alternative interpretation is that the second half of March it is the thick of the Iran war. It is when it got worst because up until the first half of March the market was all too willing to dismiss what was happening in the Middle East. They dismissed it as this is Venezuela.

[00:02:00]Right? This is this isn't going to last long. Uh it will be solved very quickly.

[00:02:04]Apparently, the market is not good at geopolitics, unfortunately. Um so, that's what the market uh expected, quick resolution. In fact, going into this high in mid-March, I believe this is when Trump was saying, "Oh, let's just use the US Navy to patrol the Strait of Hormuz, and it will be fine."

[00:02:29]And the market believed that.

[00:02:32]And the And the second around March 17th, I believe the Navy itself came out and said, "Uh that's not happening. We're not going to do that. We can't actually do that.

[00:02:41]Uh we're not going to risk our ships.

[00:02:42]Like this is this is a stupid idea."

[00:02:44]I I'm I'm paraphrasing. I wasn't there, all right? I don't know exactly what how those conversations went. But basically, the the idea is around March 17, it became clear that "Oh, there is no quick resolution to this. We're We're [ __ ] We're in a bad situation." That's the second half of March. And so, we have the sell-off here that does not show up in the macro models, a 2-week deviation, which yeah, there I've seen plenty of those.

[00:03:10]I've seen plenty of those. When Trump was shot, 2-week deviation from liquidity and from macro. Uh when the CLOUD when the GENIUS Act was passed, 2-week deviation uh from macro. I believe that we may even see a very bullish um crypto market around the time that the market begins to price in uh CLOUD Act passing. I do believe that's going to be a bullish catalyst because GENIUS was a bullish catalyst. And so, you might see divergences from the ideal liquidity picture around these key pivotal times.

[00:03:38]And I do believe that the Iran war was one of one such time. However, barring that ignoring that, Bitcoin has been moving alongside the macro. And so, what is the macro saying? And this was fascinating to me. I don't know if this was fascinating to you guys or not. Those of you who are paying attention, we were watching for late April early May top. It was showing up in the bond market 13 months ahead of time.

[00:04:03]That's how early we could see this. And lo and behold, you saw this liquidity line. Let me change these Let me make these blue.

[00:04:14]Uh Oh.

[00:04:16]Oh, no, that's the text.

[00:04:18]So, we make these blue. So, liquidity was rallying up into this same top somewhere around the same. So, within a week, liquidity does the same thing and begins to head lower following the bond market. Not only that, it actually already established this important low again a week ahead of the bond market. So, it topped out, liquidity tops out a week later than the bond market, and it makes a low a week ahead of the bond market, and look at Bitcoin.

[00:04:46]Bitcoin is topping out exactly alongside liquidity if this high holds, which I believe it will. I think it holds.

[00:04:53]Yesterday, it was confirmed that the Clarity Act is headed for a Senate vote.

[00:04:58]And I sent on Discord, you guys saw that. Okay, it's now or never.

[00:05:03]This is the only chance Bitcoin has of ignoring the bearish liquidity outlook and the bearish planetary models. It It can ignore all of that if people get so bullish about this Clarity Act that they just buy it regardless. Well, that came and went. We took out I think we're taking out the lows. We're not taking out the lows. We're still There's still a chance. There's still a chance.

[00:05:25]We can discuss that in a minute. All of these All of these tools are pointing to downside, and these tools have predicted both the rallies and the sell-offs very reliably for years. Um and nothing has changed in my opinion. Um not to be dismissive of institutional flows and what have you, but I've been asked that question for years now, and my answer has always been the same. Cycles don't change. I've never seen cycles change on any market ever, no matter who's involved in those markets. Like for instance, gold. I just gave a pretty bearish outlook on gold. China's buying. Like they're the largest. Central banks are buying. Nobody wants to touch the treasury market. How can I possibly be bearish on gold? Oh, because these tools are saying gold is going down, and it's trading like it wants to go down. By the way, by the way, I just want to zoom out here and be very clear. I'm not predicting 50K.

[00:06:20]I'm not even saying it goes below 70K.

[00:06:22]I'm not even sure it goes below 70K. I think that if you're shorting this, uh this is not not really what my framework is suggesting. My framework is suggesting that this is the correction that confirms that the bear market is over.

[00:06:37]Why am I saying that? Because that's been my expectation all along looking at the market. Look notice that the black line, which looks forward 13 months, is bullish. It says the low is in February, and it will not be retested. That's what that line is saying. Now, I know these and I've said I've said this many times, and it's true. These tools do not predict price, but price does tend to follow the shape of what is suggested by these tools. So, in other words, if the bond market prediction is sharp low, V bottom in February, and that's it, it's one and done, usually it's one and done. And so, that's the February low. Uh liquidity only looks forward by 12 weeks, so 3 months.

[00:07:21]But, it's starting to follow back it's starting to follow the bond market. And if it does follow the bond market, what you're going to see, you're going to see the rally, you're going to see the low sometime in June, and then you're going to see a bottom being established, which it already has.

[00:07:35]Liquidity has already made this June July low, and then it's going to rally.

[00:07:41]And it will not make new lows. And if these two do not make new lows, my expectation is Bitcoin does not make new lows. I am not personally selling this.

[00:07:52]I'm not shorting this. All I'm doing now, personally, just maybe that helps answer how I'm looking at this. I'm looking at a cyclical correction, a cyclical downturn, and I'm selling strangles. So, right now I'm selling calls because Bitcoin is close to 80K. Bitcoin sells off, I'm I'm starting to sell the 70K put, the 65, 60K put. I don't think it goes below precisely because of this of this framework. Now, there is a chance it goes to 60K again, simply because cyclically, that is as low as the Hurst cycle model would allow it to go without turning bearish. And since I don't think the market turns bearish, I would say, according to the cycle theory, it can go as low as 60K, but it can stay as high as This is a very question actually because I haven't thought about like downside projections. 65, 66 looks more likely.

[00:08:42]Because that's That would be a higher low. So, this 320-day cycle will be doing something like this.

[00:08:49]Um some something like this. You see this? It's quite bullish.

[00:08:54]This is a bullish It's right translated higher lows, like all the makings of a bullish uh 320-day cycle wave.

[00:09:03]So, I'm expecting just this downturn that sort of confirms that yeah, the regime has changed. And to be honest, if we see that, that would be the most shallow bear market in in crypto history.

[00:09:19]It ended with a single low.

[00:09:21]It ended very early, and it wasn't even retested. So, that's the outlook.

[00:09:27]That is the influence. And you and I discussed this before. That is the influence of all this institutional buying, all this institutional money coming into the market. Completely changing how this crypto winter normally shakes out.