What the Data Says About Ghana's Electricity Generation Deficit?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]casting methodology employs various socio-economic and policy-driven indices to estimate the total electrical load for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers for the forecast period.

[00:00:14]Demand for electricity in Ghana continues to increase due to population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and ongoing national electrification initiatives aimed at achieving universal access to electricity by the year 2030.

[00:00:30]An accurate load forecast The The word you need to uh underline here is accurate. Mhm. An accurate load forecast is important for realizing the government's commitment to foster economic growth and support energy-intensive sectors.

[00:00:47]Electricity demand in Ghana can be classified into domestic load, which refers to electricity demand within the Ghana control area, excluding VALCO, made up of residential, commercial, and industrial loads.

[00:01:01]So, there's the domestic loads excluding excluding VALCO, and then there's VALCO, and then three, exports to Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Togo. So, if you look at the dispatch sheet, you'll see CIE, SONABEL, and CEB.

[00:01:19]The month-by-month peak load will vary depending on the impact of load drivers such as seasonal changes in weather, Mhm. sporting events, etc. Now, this chapter presents the electricity load forecast for Ghana for 2025.

[00:01:37]And as I said, we are doing 2025 because we don't have 2026.

[00:01:42]2025 peak load, the base case.

[00:01:46]The 2025 projected coincident peak load for the Ghana power system is 4,338 MW.

[00:01:56]4,338 MW.

[00:01:59]This represents an increase of 386 MW, which is a 9.8% growth over the 2024 peak demand of 3,952 MW, which occurred on December 19, 2024.

[00:02:16]Mhm. [clears throat] I hope somebody's taking notes.

[00:02:19]The following assumptions drive the 2025 base case peak load, and we are using 2025 as our baseline for whatever analysis you are going to do.

[00:02:28]VALCO 1 and 1/2 cell operation at 105 MW, mine loads, Namdini 46 MW, Newmont Ahafo 42 MW, export to Burkina Faso supply up to a maximum of 240 MW, Togo-Benin 120 MW projected, Côte d'Ivoire 140 MW projected at peak.

[00:02:49]Integration of GENSA 36 MW captive generation to the grid for delivery to Damang and Chirano gold mines, and ongoing distribution network expansion works to extend coverage and improve service quality to ECG and NEDCo customers during including the ongoing rural electrification projects.

[00:03:09]I hope you are all following. Kofi, are you following? I am. Robert, are you following?

[00:03:14]Uh Sammy, are you following?

[00:03:16]I hope I'm not reading too fast and we are all capturing whatever I'm trying to establish.

[00:03:21]Now, the 2025 high case peak load.

[00:03:25]The 2025 projected high case coincident peak load for Ghana power system is 4,454.

[00:03:33]So, if you heard me right, the base case 2025 peak load base case was 4,338.

[00:03:41]The high case peak load 4,440 uh 54 MW.

[00:03:46]This represents an increase of 502 MW over the 2024 peak demand of 3,952, which occurred on December 19, 2024.

[00:03:58]And the assumptions are made again. I read through the assumptions earlier, so I will not read through the assumptions again.

[00:04:05]Now, they give us the distribution system load forecast methodology.

[00:04:10]Distribution network demand typically accounts for approximately 80% of total Ghana demand.

[00:04:16]The demand forecast for the distribution system ECG, NEDCo, and EPC, which is Enclave Power Company, was based on projection for GDP growth of 4.4% in Ghana as determined by the Ministry of Finance.

[00:04:29]>> Yeah.

[00:04:30]Customers of the distributing companies have been classified into categories ECG, special load tariff, non-special load tariff, and so so on and so on so on and so forth. For NEDCo, there are three categories, residential, non-residential, and special load tariffs. And the NEDCo operational area covers 64% of the geographical area of Ghana, including northern parts of Volta, Ashanti, and Western regions.

[00:04:57]Now, EPC customers typically industrial distributes power within the free zones Enclave and Tema industrial. That's the Enclave Power Company. Yeah.

[00:05:06]And then they talk about suppressed demand.

[00:05:09]Ghana has inherent suppressed demand for electricity attributed to several factors. Very important.

[00:05:17]>> Suppressed demand is This is demand that is there, Mhm. but because our voltage is low, because we are not producing enough, because A B C D E and if that demand is not being absorbed. Sort of, right?

[00:05:33]>> Yeah.

[00:05:34]>> [snorts] >> And so, the suppressed demand one, inadequate generation capacity resulting in system-wide load management. We are not the one saying this. Inadequate generation capacity.

[00:05:46]Two, low voltage levels at the load end resulting in the inability of some customers to operate voltage-sensitive appliances that would otherwise function under optimal voltage conditions. That's why when I switch on my fan, it goes slow and doesn't blow any air.

[00:06:06]That's why some of you when you switch on your fridges in the evening because of low voltage, your fridge doesn't work. That's why some of you you can't run your Nika Nikes sometimes because you don't have proper voltage that will let your appliances run.

[00:06:20]And they write that additionally, low voltage leads to sub-optimal performance and reduced output from certain electrical devices, ultimately contributing to lower overall energy consumption.

[00:06:33]So, it's not like the people don't demand or need the electricity, but the electricity I demand and we can't give them that quality of electricity, so the machines don't work.

[00:06:42]So, the demand would rather drop, and this is suppressed demand.

[00:06:47]Now, point number three, limited access to electricity caused by delays in new customer connections, especially by distributing companies.

[00:06:56]So, there are people who need the power, but they are not getting meters, so they cannot connect. And so, all that is part of it.

[00:07:01]>> Yeah. And then poor reliability and inadequate redundancy in some segments of transmission and distribution networks leading to prolonged outages for consumers.

[00:07:14]There's a lot to be read, but I'll leave it here.

[00:07:17]And then ask and then ask a few questions. Okay?

[00:07:21]There's a lot to be read, but I want to leave it here. But before I even leave it here, I'm going to go to the the demand projections that they Yeah, I think that's very important. Yeah.

[00:07:32]the demand projections.

[00:07:34]If you look at what GRIDCo um the technocrats at GRIDCo have done, they did the demand projections based on year-on-year increases, right? So, in 2026, the projected demand based on all the criteria they gave us that I read, is 4,718 MW.

[00:07:59]Now, the minister says that peak demand now is 4,300 MW, which was the peak demand projection for 2025.

[00:08:08]>> Mhm.

[00:08:09]Okay? By GRIDCo.

[00:08:11]Which was the peak demand for 2025 4,300 MW, and that was the base case.

[00:08:16]The suppressed top case was 4,454 MW.

[00:08:20]>> Mhm.

[00:08:21]So, it means and I've also explained the suppressed demand as well.

[00:08:24]>> Yeah.

[00:08:25]That because we have the low voltages, uh we have this, we have this. We actually need the electricity, but we are not getting them.

[00:08:32]Okay? So, these are the assumptions we have and the base information we have for making our final inference that we are not producing enough electricity and we are actually practically load shedding even though it's not on paper. Now, Kofi, Yeah.

[00:08:54]since January, you have the data from January 1 all the way to date, right?

[00:08:59]>> Mhm. Since January, what has been the highest ever electricity produced and delivered in Ghana?

[00:09:09]Well, so according to what you just read from GRIDCo, ideally 2026, our peak demand should be around 4,718.

[00:09:17]Yes.

[00:09:19]Answer my questions one by one.

[00:09:21]We don't have time.

[00:09:22]>> [laughter] >> We don't have time. Okay, what do you mean by "We don't have time"?

[00:09:26]>> what has been the highest ever delivered?

[00:09:31]4,168 MW. Is that okay?

[00:09:36]>> which day did we deliver that?

[00:09:39]That was March March 27th, 2026.

[00:09:43]At what time? It was around 10:00, which is peak hours, right?

[00:09:48]Now, we've tried I don't like doing averages, but anyway, we've tried to average the amount of power that we've produced since the 1st of January. What has been the average peak um readings that we have?

[00:10:03]Average peak readings since beginning of year is around 3,856 MW. 3,800 MW. Which day was it?

[00:10:14]That occurred That's a no, average it it didn't occur anytime but it occurred around 10:00 p.m. Okay.

[00:10:21]>> the average average reading.

[00:10:24]The GRIDCo ESP projection for 2026 puts our peak functional that we need to run at 4,700.

[00:10:32]Minister says we do 4,300.

[00:10:36]Based on all the things I've shared, in fact, if I had gone deeper into the document, you'd realize that the company like B B5 Plus adding on new production capacity would definitely mean it's factored into the thing. B5 has added on new production capacity. The people doing Olam has added a Talia company. What's what Was it noodles or pasta company?

[00:11:02]There are new houses getting connected, right? There's new demand. Nobody at the Ministry of Energy has been able to tell us that for 2026 our demand has dropped.

[00:11:12]And if you look at the charts and the projections from GRIDCo, year on year we are doing 5 6 7 8 9% increase in demand.

[00:11:21]So, demand has not dropped. If demand has dropped, then we can safely infer that okay, for 2026 even though the economy is growing still electricity demand has dropped. We don't have any transmission losses.

[00:11:34]Whatever we produce, we get to straight to your homes. We don't have any challenges. So, we are producing this amount and you are getting We don't have anything like that. Demand has not dropped.

[00:11:44]Transmission losses still exist.

[00:11:47]But the average peak demand we've average peak production we've done is 3,800.

[00:11:53]The highest we've ever delivered is 4,168 on the 27th of March 2026 at 10:00 p.m.

[00:12:00]So, if the technocrats are telling us and I've read all the underlying the the contest and everything that we actually need 4,700.

[00:12:10]Let's throw that away. We don't need it.

[00:12:12]The Minister says you are doing 4,300.

[00:12:15]Which is last year's peak demand, right?

[00:12:18]And if you heard what I read, they gave us the date That was even a projection anyway. projection and and and the date that we we recorded the highest peak and we have the sense of the average peak as well. Okay. We are not producing enough.

[00:12:30]So, on a day like take me to Independence Day, 6th March.

[00:12:36]Take me to Independence Day, 6th March.

[00:12:37]This This will be the last thing then we move on. Take me to Independence Day.

[00:12:41]>> generation, right?

[00:12:42]>> Yes, take me to Independence Day, 6th March.

[00:12:44]Okay. 6th March.

[00:12:46]If if if you you you take me to a day like um 17th April, for example, which is about 2 weeks ago.

[00:12:54]>> Or I almost got it 6th March or or Okay.

[00:12:56]6th March is fine.

[00:12:57]6th March is fine.

[00:13:02]A minute.

[00:13:06]Okay. So, we have 6th March.

[00:13:07]>> How much electricity do we produce in the morning, the afternoon, the evening?

[00:13:11]In fact, if you are looking at peak demand, 6th March, 3,880.

[00:13:17]And our peak demand for a day like 6th March, which is a holiday, people are home, everything blazing because you know, they they say that days we have sporting events, big events, our demand goes up and all that.

[00:13:32]On a day like that, would we hit 4,300?

[00:13:34]>> No.

[00:13:35]We can hit the peak, but did we hit the peak?

[00:13:38]>> of demand, 4,300. In terms of supply So, so so so we are not here to do any mischief.

[00:13:46]>> Yeah.

[00:13:47]We are just worried.

[00:13:49]I am a farmer. I have operations in three regions of this country. Bono Region Bono East I have operations in Bono East, Eastern Region and Volta Region. I need electricity to run and have a home [clears throat] in Accra and other office and business interests scattered around the city. I talk to people, people talk to me.

[00:14:13]Since the beginning of the year the power has been going on and off.

[00:14:18]It's been going on and off.

[00:14:21]And we all know it's a demand and supply thing, push and pull thing. If the people need the power and it's there, why do our power keep going on and off?

[00:14:30]Even if it's it's it's it's to do with inadequacy in our transformers and everything, we should be getting power at half current or one phase off.

[00:14:40]But the power goes off and comes out like fwing.

[00:14:44]So, we we are not here to be mischievous.

[00:14:47]We are here because we know we need the energy and every technocrat and technician in this country has done their their their their analysis.

[00:14:58]They've done the projections. And DPC, everybody has done the projections. We don't have enough energy.

[00:15:04]If we all accept that this is our reality and that we must work together as a people on it we will discuss that and as a people we will work towards it. Because when the government came to us and told us that we have a problem with getting fuel for our electricity generation and if we don't pay a CD extra, we cannot power it. The government explained. We asked questions, but in the end we thought that it was something we could do because we need the power to run.

[00:15:34]I slept in darkness last night. Me, too.

[00:15:38]My children slept in darkness.

[00:15:39]>> we had about 18 hours of light last yesterday.

[00:15:43]>> children. So, when I say when I say this, nobody Look, nobody has a problem with the energy ministry.

[00:15:50]We only have a problem with the fact that Ghana at 60-something we still are not producing enough electricity.

[00:15:58]And if we if we net the power we are producing and spread it across all Ghanaians, we are doing 113 W per person. Far far >> 113 W per person, which can only power one ceiling fan or one TV. Your chap one Everybody can power only and we we we all want to switch it on only one ceiling fan. That is not adequate. That is not enough. So, we expect the leaders in the sector to come to us, tell us what you are doing, we'll support you.

[00:16:30]The President says you are going to build a 1,200 MW power plant owned by the government. Let it come. If we are if we are to pay extra levies or if we are to pay extra for for that to be done, let's explain the the the the the the the the the the journey to establishing that 1,200, which takes us to some 6,000 MW of dependable capacity, which can power us through to 2030. At the moment, if you don't add at least 300 MW to our generation every year, we are going to be thrown into the old doom so that we experience. That's where our challenge is. So, honorable Minister, we are sorry if we made it seem as though we we we are being mischievous, if you felt that way. The Ministry, the technocrats, we are sorry if you felt that way. But one in Ghana is one in Togo, one in Spain, one in on Mars. What we've read tells us that we are in a deep existential problem when it comes to energy generation. We must fix it.

[00:17:32]Quickly, you have 30 seconds.

[00:17:34]>> In fact, one thing that is clear is that we don't have any headroom in terms of reserve margin. Make our 30 seconds.

[00:17:40]Remember I'm a lecturer.

[00:17:41]>> [laughter] >> And it's clear that we don't have a headroom. That headroom of average 18% doesn't exist. And anytime we have any of our generation plant going off, we will plant ourselves into what we don't want to call doom so, but it's also clear that since Monday per the GRIDCo reports we've actually read ideal demand of 4,718 we've actually been underestimating the actual deficit in terms of power generation since Monday. If you add technical losses, transmission losses and all what have you, the situation is actually dire.

[00:18:18]And so, we need to do some work.