Harry's Rant 5-29-26

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:06]Hi, Harry here with the rant for May 29th, Friday.

[00:00:11]Uh note, uh because I'm traveling going to a conference I'm speaking at, I'm recording this a day early on Thursday.

[00:00:19]Now, stocks are still kind of edging up, but I think we're moving into this major long-term top that is six years overdue. Now, I mean, this literally should have happened late 2019 and crashed into late 2022.

[00:00:36]That would have fit the best on all of my cycles that all bottomed together for the first time in history in late 2022, okay?

[00:00:45]Now, my short-term cycles, uh I won't get into that, but but the the most likely time for a top probably is just ahead. Uh stock again, stocks just keep edging up until something goes wrong, but mid-July is when I see the most likely time for a top, and then we get that first crash, okay? We we we which which can be now would be scheduled to be about 54% to just to get back to the 2022 lows on the S&P 500. 62% on the Nasdaq. And those first crashes, as I've documented, happen in two to four months, 2.6 on average. So, I think the most likely scenario here, stocks finally peak in say mid-July and crash into October or later. And again, big first crash, and of course, that's just the first wave down in a larger correction that again is overdue six years. Now, that everything's up in the air more than usual cuz once the government came in in 2008 and just started massive stimulus, 30 trillion I've outlined in the US alone, um over the last 16 years.

[00:01:59]You know, it all cycles have been thrown off, okay?

[00:02:03]I'm hoping we get a big crash and then that brings us back on the cycle and discredits the government from saying, "Well, we printed 10 trillion last time and we're going to go for 20 this time."

[00:02:14]There's a point where people say, "Hey, we've seen this before."

[00:02:17]So, again, what we have 2026, this is the four-year presidential cycle they call it. This is not a big cycle cuz it happens every four years, but there tends to be some corrections in the stock market and sometimes a mild recession, okay? Now, folks, I'm just looking for a trigger here, okay? If I was just looking at this four-year cycle, I wouldn't be predicting a major stock market crash.

[00:02:45]I'm predicting that because we've had the greatest bubble in history, the longest, and it is way overdue to crash, okay? So, I think, you know, this is the perfect year to just get that first crash in, which is what I'm talking about here, but again, 50 to 60% or more, enough to shock people and wake people up, and then start what what could end up being the crash of our lifetimes.

[00:03:10]And And if I look at at Stan Harley, one one of my favorite newsletters, Stan Harley has his next major low on on a very interesting 82.2 month cycles. That's just just under seven years. That's a new cycle.

[00:03:26]The first new cycle I've come across in a good while, and that says the next major low could come around May 2029.

[00:03:35]So, we get a peak here, let's say in July of 2026, and crash into May 2029, that's perfect. That's 34 month crash, the same as 1929 to 32, the greatest crash in history, and this will likely be the second greatest. Could be a little less or more, depending, but still that's what we're looking for until proven otherwise. So, so this will be the big test. If we if we cannot if the market can't even have a decent correction in this four-year cycle, then it says, "You know what? This stimulus is just working even though they've been doing it forever, uh and it's not going to stop till it stopped." And again, the other thing, remember they did drop the balance sheet 2.7 trillion, okay? Last year, so so that is another trigger on a one-year lag. So again, I'm hoping for this. And people say, "Are you a sadist?" No. The mar- I understand the markets cuz I've studied them my entire adult career, okay? The markets would have crashed a long time ago. The markets love to boom and then crash and shake out all the zombie companies and all the overvalued stocks and stuff and and get healthy again. The market knows what it's doing. We're not trusting free market capitalism. The governments around the world are attacking it for the first time in history. That's my problem. The only solution to this is a big enough crash to discredit these government policies of just stimulating artificially forever, okay? As if you can just die and go to heaven here.

[00:05:10]Now, this this I'm speaking at the Foundation for Study of Cycles conference. I got introduced to this group from my good friend and and newsletter writer Andy Pancholi. He's got the Market Timing Letter in in in London.

[00:05:26]Also, there's going to be Elliott Prechter. That's the son of Robert Prechter. I met Robert for the first time in 2002 in Scotland, where we were both presenting at the same time. And then again in in 2008.

[00:05:41]Um That's when I met Andy Pancholi and Robert Prechter and James Dale Davidson and and other long-term forecasters were all there at once. That was a great conference in Miami. Now, the other newsletter and and the in person I follow Stan Harley. He's going to be at this Foundation Study of of Cycles conference and and I very much look forward to meeting him. I have not met him yet. Uh and and again, he has and I I'll show you know in in in in the upcoming newsletter, my favorite new cycle, 82.2 months, you know? I I've I've covered it just about every cycle and fine, but this and maybe not going back 100 years but this has been a very credible cycle and again, points down into May of 2029.

[00:06:29]So again, until proven otherwise, best scenario, peak soon, not quite yet.

[00:06:36]Stocks still edging up again. By mid-July, first crash into the fall and then a continued downturn and that'll be very hard to predict cuz governments of course are going to intervene, but again, I'm hoping they lose credibility, okay? And people start saying, "Wait a minute. Constantly stimulating and blowing up the economy again, creating more bubbles is not the solution." We'll see on that, but but I I think we're going to see some real action soon and of course, I will keep you updated.