Solana Price Analysis: Where Does This Rally End?

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]So the Solana chart has rallied substantially from the February lows.

[00:00:05]The price moved up roughly 45% into the March highs. Then we saw a corrective pullback that formed a higher low and the market might be setting up for a rally to $110 plus. In this update, we want to talk about how probable that is, what the next upside resistances and targets are, and what you need to watch for this week. So we'll talk about the daily chart first, then take a look at the Solana Bitcoin and Solana ETH charts to see which one is currently outperforming and where we might see reversals. And then we also take a look at the micro structure. So this here is the daily time frame and what you can see on this chart is that the market has rallied quite nicely from the February lows. Um and we tested the $95 to $96 area which has remained quite strong and important resistance in the last few weeks. This level is also the April low that was tested last year and was basically flipped for resistance.

[00:01:11]And so the question is this rally that started in February, can it still extend higher? And how much higher can we actually go? So first of all, I think it's important to recognize that the market is simply following a standard ABC pullback scenario in which the initial decline from the January high unfolded as a three-wave decline. Very typical. It's what Bitcoin did as well, just slightly different because the correction on the Solana chart started already in 2025. But Solana didn't start the correction in October or end of the year. No, Solana started the correction in January 2025. So, the correction has already been ongoing for quite some time. Um, like on many altcoin charts, we have yeah a correction 77% or higher. That doesn't mean however that the overall low is in. Just an example in the last bare market in the last correction.

[00:02:13]Yeah, in the last bare market, Solana declined roughly 97%.

[00:02:19]Of course, this was the first cycle.

[00:02:21]Yeah, this one is a bit different. Um, but still, um, just let's say a 70 or 80% correction doesn't mean it's enough to correct the rally that happened before. Um, and so because Solana very much follows Bitcoin and Bitcoin probably hasn't completed its entire correction, I would also be ready here for something like this or maybe if we get an extended variation of this higher. Yeah. And then lower. So either way the idea is not only because Bitcoin is doing it we have to take every chart on its own but also here because of Solana structure that is very overlapping messy choppy there is simply no confirmed low in place and the upside reaction even though the market moved up quite substantially as I said around about 45% it is still not enough to confirm that a meaningful low is in we have only three waves up instead of five we would need five waves up for a trend shift and we also haven't broken above any meaningful resistances. So the idea is this entire correction could stretch out a little further like on the Bitcoin chart. We might spend the entire year in a correction but in a correction the market doesn't go down in a straight line.

[00:03:44]We had it in April last year. The market started a larger bounce. Something similar could unfold here, either like this or even like this. It's impossible to say in advance how high a three-wave move is going to go. Especially B waves are very difficult to forecast. They are chameleon-like structures. They can form basic three-wave movements or more complex ones. So that's why I said in my Q2 update on Solana, we really have to take it level by level. We have to, you know, we have to check at every juncture what is the reaction. And if the pullback after the next high is corrective in nature, a three-wave move down and we hold support, we can leave the door open for higher prices. But most importantly, not necessarily in an in a trending move, but rather in a counter trend move, a three-wave move up. So, and to define targets, we measure the length of the Awave. That's the rally from the February low and we compare that with the possible C-wave advance ABC and we get to the target area $110 to 138. This would be the initial target. Look, if afterwards we get a higher low and another higher high, we should see that in the pullback afterwards. But the default expectation will be ABC up and then a risk of a decline.

[00:05:10]Please note that Solana is likely going to follow Bitcoin. Um, however, if Solana follows Bitcoin, we need to understand how does it perform compared to Bitcoin. And while they often, you know, while they often agree in direction, so if Bitcoin goes up, Solana goes up as well. If the Soul BTC chart goes down, Solana will obviously also show more weakness than Bitcoin.

[00:05:38]And so we see it go down. It's actually been in a decline since 2024. If we look at the sole ETH chart, it's the same.

[00:05:46]Yeah, actually here it started 2025.

[00:05:49]We've now reached support on the sole ETH chart. So maybe we get a bit of a bounce there. So Solana compared to bit to Ethereum. However, the overall situation is that both Ethereum and Bitcoin outperforms Solana at the moment.

[00:06:06]So if you then look at the uh shorter time frame, you can see that Sana is currently trying to move higher. So we have from the April low moved up in you know higher highs, higher lows. We formed a sequence of higher highs, higher lows.

[00:06:24]But there's a lot of overlap in these movements, very choppy.

[00:06:29]And this is certainly not impulsive. And so it's very difficult to find a clear pathway here. I mean, it is going higher. As long as the support area is holding between $781 and $81.75, the door remains open for higher prices.

[00:06:48]The resistance area that needs to be watched is between $85.90 and $88.95.

[00:06:56]So there is a potential like on the Bitcoin chart for an ABC move and we dip back into support. But as long as we're holding $781, there is a chance for higher prices.

[00:07:10]So that means all eyes need to be on this initial resistance zone and our micro support area for wave two. Please note this is not an aggressive uptrend.

[00:07:20]It's likely part of a counter trend move. That's the update on Soul. Hope you like the update. If you did, please hit the like button, leave a comment, and subscribe. And if you're interested in additional updates, check out our membership. I put the link into the comment section. Thanks so much.

[00:07:35]Bye-bye.