The MOU Is Signed But the Real Deal Isn't Even Written Yet

[00:00:00]Well, as we like to say, happy Friday.

[00:00:03]It's June 19th. And yesterday yesterday afternoon to be specific, J.D. Vance, well, he had a press briefing. It was about 45 minutes long where he was asked a series of questions, but mainly about this memorandum of understanding with Iran. Now, I want to start off with the very first question of the entire briefing.

[00:00:30]Cuz it's going to lay a predicate for where we go with this entire episode.

[00:00:35]Play the clip.

[00:00:36]>> Thank you, Mr. Vice President. I wanted to ask a follow-up on something you just mentioned. You talked about the possibility of the current Iranian leadership fundamentally changing their behavior. Do you think that the current Iranian leadership recognizes the leverage that the US holds over itself economically and militarily enough to actually go forth with fundamentally changing their behavior over the long term and going about things differently?

[00:00:59]>> So, I certainly think they recognize the leverage that the United States has over them. We've seen that in a number of our conversations. We've seen that just in their behavior over the last couple of days. They certainly recognize that the United States has great leverage. Will that ultimately lead to a change in behavior? I don't know. Uh you know, I've seen skeptics of the deal. People say, "The Iranians will never change their behavior." Well, maybe that's true. And if so, they don't get any of the benefits of the bargain. But isn't it worth trying? Isn't it worth seeing whether this incredibly weakened position that the President of the United States has put the Iranians under, whether that motivates them to change their behavior. Not just vis-à-vis the West, but vis-à-vis the Middle East. You know, one of the the interesting things about this is, you know, the technical details of this, we can of course get into. There are any going to be any number of opinions about the negotiation, about where it's ultimately going to go. But I tend to think that you should trust the people who know the Iranians the best and who have the most to lose. What are the Gulf Arab states saying about this deal? What are they saying about this deal compared to the JCPOA in 2015? This is the Obama nuclear deal. Well, back then, they hated that deal. They felt like it empowered the Iranians to be bad actors across the region, and of course, that's exactly what happened. They were right about that. What are they saying about the president's peace deal? They're saying this is an amazingly transformative thing for the region because either way, we and the broader region win. Iran is weakened, their nuclear program destroyed, their economy in desperate straits, and if they change their behavior, big things are going to happen for Iran and for the world. If they don't, no skin off our backs.

[00:02:36]Either way, we win, and that's the way the president has set up this deal and this negotiation.

[00:02:42]>> Yeah. Un- You You expected there was going to be some additional questions after that comment. In fact, my Substack of this morning, which [snorts] I called Playing with Fire, Iran is continuously They've been doing the same sh- stick now for what, 47 years. 47 long years, the same sh- stick. They're moving the goalposts before the game has even started.

[00:03:08]Here's the problem for them. Trump sees it, and the consequences could shake the world. You know, as I write in my Substack, there is an old adage that those who play with fire are doomed to get burned. Well, right now, Iran, well, they seem determined to test whether that warning still applies.

[00:03:31]And welcome back to the Michael Cohen show on our continued journey to a million subscribers. My friends, I ask you get every single day. Let's grow this community. Help to grow the community. Hit subscribe, like, comment, and share because there is a ton a ton of [ __ ] to talk about. Now, JD was then asked about Israel and how they were involved in the deal.

[00:03:53]Play the clip.

[00:03:54]>> He does not withdraw from Israel. No one could withdraw from another country the right of self-defense. Israel has the right to defend itself, but fundamentally the Israelis just like everybody else have to respect this peace process that is fundamentally good for them and good for the entire region. What the president has grown frustrated sometimes is that we seem to be right on the cusp of a major breakthrough in the agreement and then all of a sudden there's a major explosion that goes off in a civilian population center in Beirut and a lot of people who have nothing to do with Hezbollah lose their lives. That's not acceptable. That's the sort of thing that we've asked for closer coordination so that we ensure it doesn't happen. And our message to the Israelis just as our message to everybody else is fundamentally we want this peace process to be good for you. We do not want Hezbollah attacking Israel, but in order to ensure that that happens, we have got to actually build the kind of regional framework that can cut off the money to Hezbollah, cut off Iranian support for Hezbollah, and also ensure that Lebanon's terrible territorial sovereignty is respected by by all parties. And the the difference between the two agreements So, [clears throat] first of all, the two big differences are not even in the substance of the deal itself, but something I said earlier are number one the Gulf Coast Coalition loves this deal because they think that it makes Iran weaker. They hated the Obama deal because they thought that it made Iran stronger.

[00:05:18]>> Okay.

[00:05:19]Let me put it to you this way.

[00:05:20]Less than 48 hours after the signing of that memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran a deal that was supposed to calm the markets, was supposed to reduce tensions, was supposed to create a pathway towards stability Tehran doing what they always do looking to figure out how to find a loophole rather than peace. That is who they are.

[00:05:50]That's what they do. The ink is barely dry.

[00:05:55]And now, that formal signing ceremony that they were talking about appears to be on its way to being canceled.

[00:06:03]Now, J.D. Vance, again, having to play the part, not well, but trying, went on to try to destroy the Obama JCPOA.

[00:06:15]That, of course, being the former deal with Iran. Play the clip.

[00:06:19]>> So, there are many differences. The Obama deal gave them over a billion dollars of American money. The this deal gives them zero dollars of American money. So, a lot of substantive differences, but I think the most important differences are where we're coming at it from a position of strength and the fact that our Gulf Coast partners love this deal.

[00:06:37]>> Okay. First of all, they did not give a billion dollars of American money. It's the same thing. America ended up holding about more than a billion dollars of seized Iranian assets.

[00:06:53]Obama, his administration, chose to return it in exchange for the signing of the JCPOA.

[00:07:02]Now, Vance was also asked about the Iranian missiles that have not been fired and what they will do with those after the potential signing of this agreement.

[00:07:13]Play the clip.

[00:07:14]>> What has changed about Iranians about the Iranian ballistic missile program is it matters much less the number of missiles they have, the number of bullets. What matters much more is the number of launchers they have and importantly the teams on the ground that have the capacity to launch those missiles. Their ability to launch missiles has been substantially degraded. Is it zero? No, but it's substantially degraded and in that sense, we haven't abandoned the mission.

[00:07:40]We've accomplished that particular part of the mission. If you look at the >> Okay. There is no mission yet that has been accomplished. And while there is an executed memorandum of understanding, I want people to understand from a legal standpoint what is a memorandum of understanding.

[00:07:59]It's technically an agreement to agree.

[00:08:04]What does it agree to? Well, nothing yet because that agreement has not been executed or even prepared.

[00:08:13]Now, another great question that was asked of Vance, after this deal, would it end up making Iranians stronger?

[00:08:22]It's a very fair question because at the end of the day, leverage is what this entire negotiation has become for Iran.

[00:08:33]Play the clip.

[00:08:34]>> Thank you very much, Mr. Vice President.

[00:08:35]As you know, because you were involved in this process, the MOU allows for Iran to sell its oil right away, which means that Iran can take in on a monthly basis tens of millions of dollars. Iran's economy was in tatters. How is that this not essentially giving a lifeline to Iran economically? And what's to prevent Iran from [clears throat] using all of that money, all of those millions of dollars to prop up its proxies in the region?

[00:09:06]>> Well, the number one thing is that we actually see where the money moves now because of what we've done with the financial sanctions. We actually know where the money's going to move. And so, we have great confidence that we're going to be able to see if they try to fund terrorist organizations. We're going to be able to see that, but you said that millions of dollars is a lifeline. Right now, the Iranian nation is a nation of 94 million people. Their economy is in a free fall. They have sky-high inflation. And fundamentally, about a trillion dollars of damage to their industrial base was caused over the last 3 months. The idea that selling a few million dollars worth of barrel barrels of or a few million dollars worth of oil is going to fundamentally transform the Iranian economy, that's just not true. We thought that it would be good in order to lift the blockade and open the Straits of Hormuz to allow the free flow of energy. We felt that it was reasonable that if we're going to allow everybody else to sell their energy during this period of negotiation, we would allow everyone to sell their energy. That's all we're doing. We can slap everything right back on if the Iranians don't make the deal that we expect.

[00:10:10]>> Right. And that's the problem. Right now, the signing of any formal agreement is off the table.

[00:10:17]Bance also asked if the deal happening um looked just as chaotic off screen as it does on screen.

[00:10:27]Didn't particularly care for that question. Play the clip.

[00:10:30]>> On on Monday we were told the MOU would be published within 48 hours. The president then said uh after Friday. You I think then said by Friday. And then it ended up being read out on a on a briefing call yesterday. We were told the MOU had been signed electronically on Sunday. There was an access report that it hadn't been. There's going to be a signing ceremony on Friday and then it's signed at Versailles yesterday last night.

[00:10:57]Uh um is is what's going on behind the scenes as chaotic as your public messaging?

[00:11:02]>> [laughter] >> Well, I don't think our public messaging has been chaotic. I think dealing with a fractured Iranian system where communication isn't great is just sometimes something that we don't fully appreciate or we don't fully understand.

[00:11:16]Uh what what really happened here is that we we did sign the MOU on Sunday.

[00:11:20]Uh that locked in the terms of the deal.

[00:11:23]What the Iranians came to us and said is we'd like not to release the text until Friday. In order to we don't I don't really understand that. I wanted to get the text out immediately. But in order to be accommodating to them, we said sure, okay, we'll wait until Friday. And then what happened over Monday, Tuesday, the president was in G7, maybe foreign leaders were talking to the Iranians and encouraging them to do that. We were definitely saying to them, we understand your desire not to have the text out until Friday, but you know, we we live in a democratic system. The American people want to see the text of this deal. We would certainly like to get it out as soon as possible. And so they came up with having their president sign it, our president sign it, and then just releasing the text as a signed document immediately at that point. I I do wonder Rob, just this is pure conjecture. I'm just guessing at this. I wonder if part of it is that they wanted to have a Persian translation, a Farsi translation that they felt good about. And then of course, once they translate it into Farsi, our State Department has to confirm that the Farsi translation matches the meaning of the English. I think that is part of what was going on here, but the text is out there now. We said that we would be transparent about it, but the reason why it went back a little bit about when exactly the text would be released is just we were trying to show good faith to the Iranians who for reasons I have no idea cared a lot about how the text itself was rolled out.

[00:12:41]>> Okay. Wrong.

[00:12:43]I'm going to get to that in my summation, but finally, I do actually want to end this video when Vance was asked about the comments that the president made saying that he would end up being the fall guy.

[00:12:56]Talking about JD with Marco Rubio standing to camera right. Play the clip.

[00:13:03]>> President Trump said yesterday that he was going to blame you if the talks with Iran go sideways. Are you worried that he's going to make you the fall guy?

[00:13:10]>> Uh, no, not at all. I mean, I think the president was joking, uh, but as as he often does. But no, I I think look, the entire team has worked very well on this and we've got this thing to a very good place for the American people. Now, I have >> Let me turn around and say this.

[00:13:23]The problem with Iran is that they're testing limits and Tehran in their infinite stupidity may actually believe that Washington is eager to avoid another confrontation.

[00:13:41]Tehran may believe that this memorandum of understanding has fundamentally altered the strategic landscape.

[00:13:50]Problem though is if the Iranian leaders convince Trump that they are deliberately undermining the agreement even before the implementation has started.

[00:14:00]Let me be very clear.

[00:14:02]They risk provoking a response whose scale and severity may not be fully appreciated or anticipated by them.

[00:14:12]Having watched Trump operate for years, a decade and a half, I would also if I was the Iranian regime, not assume that patience is unlimited.

[00:14:24]Mark my words and let's see if I'm right.

[00:14:28]And as always, thanks for listening.

[00:14:31]>> Hey everyone. First of all, thanks for watching. I mean, we're going to be posting daily episodes with reactions and talking about politics. We'll be talking about everything in fact. So, please like and subscribe. Join us on this journey.