Gold & Silver Are Breaking — Bitcoin's Next Move?

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Gold's down, silver's down. Both likely going lower. In fact, perhaps much lower. Bitcoin just rejected 79,000 bucks. And I do have some targets for this next downside move as well as the next trade that I'm looking at for Bitcoin specifically. And other than that, welcome back to the Crown's Crypto Cave. No, just welcome back to the Crown channel because we got plenty to discuss today. We did call a major macro top on both gold and silver back in February based off of many different things. But of course, the most important of them were extreme extreme extreme levels being hit on monthly time frames like your monthly RSI read being the highest level since the past, you know, 40 to 50 years going back to 1968, 1970ish region. And then of course extreme levels on volatility. And all this was coming on the back of just incredibly insane parabolic blowoff tops type behavior. And on top of that, you just saw gold and and silver dominate the narrative as far as, you know, the world's going crazy, this and that. And of course, when we see these sort of things happen and coales at the same time, it's almost always going to lead to a major and perhaps even a macro high. And in this case, I don't think it's just a major high. I do believe it's a macro high. And of course, this all came on historically high levels of volume and volatility. These are just all makers for major major major major major tops. So in this case, I am still looking for gold to come down. It looks like it has confirmed that next lower high at just below 4,900 bucks. Took a long time to do it, which is why we were patient on this one. But yes, I am still looking at this analysis as more or less playing out. We are printing now a drive of bearish divergence on the weekly RSI.

[00:01:29]This is yes, a phantom drive right here on Caretaker's RSI. But these typically are good for range plays. And in this case, a range play brings you back down to that uh most recent price action pivot here, which is also in alignment with that green 55 EMA. and that is just around 4,100 or so. So, anywhere around there is fair game on this move. How long is it likely going to take? I would imagine a month or two at most. And ultimately, we're going to likely see another one of those corrective setups between the red 5 EMA right here crossing underneath the yellow 21 EMA.

[00:01:57]And again, this is the same thing that we've seen a million [ __ ] times on Bitcoin since we started following this signal over the past couple years, which is a general area of interest for this downside correction all the way to the green 55 EMA. Again, it's a little bit above 4100 right now, but generally I'm just looking for the price action to come down. And look, when we go, you know, when we go up to the higher term time frames, like the monthly or even the quarterly, this does look like it has a lot more potential for lower over a longer period of time. But in the short term, you know, I don't think that we're going to see anything like super super crazy below that low that we saw in last month of March. Um, but very likely revisiting that, I do believe in the next month or two at most. Now, when it comes to silver, same [ __ ] over here.

[00:02:35]Although I don't have the best silver chart. Let's go to the silver chart over here. Same thing. This one already has 1, two, three lower highs in contrast to gold's just one and two lower highs showing that it is, you know, a little bit on the weaker side because, you know, it is more volatile. Obviously, you get bigger gains to the upside and also bigger loss to the downside. Duh.

[00:02:52]Anyways, same thing right here with that next lower high on regular bearish divergence. Again, it is a phantom drive on caretaker's RSI and we are going to see again that weekly 5 EMA very likely cross to the downside of the yellow 21 EMA, especially as long as this thing is below $74. it looks like. Um then yes, you know, I'm looking for this one to come down as well and probably come down greater in terms of a percentage fashion than gold. General area of interest for this move over the next month or two is going to be back down to that green 55 EMA. Let's just call it 60 to $61. You know, do I think that things are going to go lower over time? Probably. But, you know, first things first, let's let's wait and watch for these moves to play out. I'm assuming that they do play out. And for both of them, I do have a very specific invalidation as well, which would instantly make me, I guess, bullish. I don't think it's going to happen, but as always, need to have a line in the sand to know exactly when I'm going to do wrong. Because at the end of the day, man, like it's not about being right or wrong. It's about making [ __ ] money. And the way that you make [ __ ] money is knowing when you're wrong extremely [ __ ] quickly. And the way to do that is to pick out that last what is going to be very likely a lower high. For silver, that's going to be 83 bucks. Just above 83 bucks, 83 and 5 cents according to the price action pivots indicator right here. And for gold, that same number would be 48.91 12 or 48.91 and 54 cents. As long as you're below there, yeah, direction is down.

[00:04:05]And I do look for this move to come lower over time. But anyways, that takes it into Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin did reject 79,000 bucks or let me actually go to it from this chart right here. Did uh so yes, it did reject 79,000 bucks. Also, the weekly 21 EMA, which you know is kind of common to see pullbacks around this. I don't think that that necessarily Bitcoin's doomed or anything like this, but we could see a little bit more downside. We did identify in yesterday's video that there is extremely like a stream like an extreme likelihood of a short-term pullback based off of the daily bearish divergence which has been forming right here. 1 2 3 drives on character RSI once again. And generally my sort of easy target for that is going to be the yellow 21 EMA at 70 uh 75,000 bucks and 280 it looks like right now. Uh Bitcoin hasn't necessarily exactly hit it just yet, but I am looking for that target to be met. Can Bitcoin go lower from there?

[00:04:53]Yeah, sure. What would effectively um validate lower for Bitcoin? Well, in this case, I would be going over here.

[00:05:01]Oh, [ __ ] I got rid No, it's right here. I'd be looking at the Revan ribbons once again. And the top side of the bottom band, which is basically 75,000 bucks in change. Let's call it 75 and um 100 or 75 200. Uh we'll put it we'll pin it right there. So, it's very close to the daily 21 EMA right here.

[00:05:20]Um, if Bitcoin starts to close below there on the daily time frame, I do think that this pullback does bring us back down to, you know, another 10% or so, probably a little bit at least below 70,000 bucks. There will be stops along the way obviously, but but that would be my next sort of major sort of uh dam bursting for Bitcoin. Until then, it's still higher lows for Bitcoin here and it could very easily bounce off of that exact same number. And that is why I operate on daily closing basises for this particular analysis. And if Bitcoin does close below there then yes I am generally looking for Bitcoin to come like I said you know decently lower probably a tra or probably it is a tradable move obviously um I wouldn't necessarily still get like fullon super mega ultra [ __ ] bearish on Bitcoin but I'd be looking for Bitcoin to pull back somewhere down very high 60s maybe mid60s and I do think that that would be another major opportunities I personally would very likely be buying around there you know depending upon a few a few things but in advance yeah I would say very likely going to be buying around there so that begs the question what would be my next trade or what is the trade that I'm essentially looking at for Bitcoin. It's pretty simple trade right here. I I kind of alluded to it on yesterday's video. Um, but on yesterday's video, we went over this, which was the 81 versus $84,000 call uh call spread. I'm going to be selling that spread 3 to one. And this is going to be expiring at the end of May because if you know, if we do see Bitcoin fall through here, this move is probably going to bring us, you know, for the next few weeks at least. I'm I'm just not worried about Bitcoin going above 80,000 bucks before then. And basically this this position will print the maximum profit of you can't see it but there it is uh at the bottom uh at the bottom middle right here. It'll print a maximum profit of about 53,000 bucks again if Bitcoin finishes out below $81,000 on May 29th. Um if it does, then I pull in that full uh full maximum profit. If it doesn't, then I'm in trouble. But there is a very easy way to manage this because if Bitcoin does confirm that it actually wants to set in the next higher low right here, I would be happy to cover that position getting long once again. In fact, having real long deltas by just buying the spot underline to cover that short call position at the $81,000 call strike as soon as Bitcoin comes back up above what was this yesterday's high, Monday's high at $79,498.80.

[00:07:27]Bitcoin could do that. I'm happy to cover that because I do think it's going much much higher. I think it's going to like the mid 80s. So, I would definitely want to cover that and I'll make the difference between basically that number 70 uh 79500 basically uh and 81,000 bucks plus I would pick up the long deltas from that 10 lot of long calls at 84 strike uh you know I believe it was.

[00:07:48]So, uh so a lot of ways to manage this.

[00:07:50]Like I say, I'm not that um concerned about being right super right on direction for options. I'm very concerned about having specific invalidations that effectively imply that you know a bigger move is like to occur from there because with options you can basically be wrong in direction and still make money. Like that's the beauty of them. That's what I hope to show in the TA no not the TIA 101 but the options 101 playlist which there's a link to in the description below. It's all free by the way as is the TA 101 playlist and uh and yeah it's there for you right now. It's all good. Anyways, on on the topic of potentially a greater pullback for Bitcoin would be over here again going to the funny rates. We can see that funny rates are actually uh posted positive for the past couple days today being positive as well. Now it has stepped down a little bit from yesterday. Yesterday was about half percent positive now about spot 36%. Um but you know that is still positive and it's the first time that we've really seen positive. you know, in the past month or so, as you can see right here, it's been mostly mo mostly very negative and in some cases, uh, slightly neutral to very slightly positive. We're back again in the fear zone right here. So, it's like, look, on this downside move, I I don't think it's going to be like a [ __ ] crash out move. I don't think it's going to be like new lows for Bitcoin on a closing basis or anything like that. Um, so I would be extremely defensive um against Bitcoin, you know, putting in a higher low, basically anywhere above about, let's just call it 75,000 bucks. as long as you're above there, still high or low territory and uh and I'm happy to be, you know, on the same side of the trend. But for right now, you know, there are signals of a, you know, a little bit of a deeper pullback. The real question to me is, does Bitcoin violate on a daily closing basis 75,000 bucks or not? Cuz if it does, I think we're going much lower. I think it's ultimate an opportunity and I'm happy to hold that short call spread position. And if Bitcoin does basically bounce kind of, you know, where it's gotten to today, maybe a little bit lower. I do think it'll at least get to 75300 and test that 21 EMA on the daily time frame officially. Um but uh but assuming that you know it's still possible that it could bounce there reverse and if it pops back above uh Monday's high, hey, that's bullish to me. I'm happy to uh to get on the same side of that as well. So these are the setups that I love. Very very obviously and objectively well defined and the triggers for taking action are just super [ __ ] easy to be to be blunt. Um so yeah, anyways, on top of that, I should let you know that if you are interested in the Revan ribbons, we are going to be raising the price on this on May 1st, which is I think this Friday.

[00:10:04]Yeah, it's this Friday. Um, but we are raising the price not just because we want to raise the price and [ __ ] you over. We're raising the price because we're offering more functionality to this. Uh, for the people who already have the rebon ribbons, the rebon ribbons, the revan ribbon, the revan ribbons indicator, the rev bonds, um, uh, you will get at no additional cost access to this new script which can actually be appropriated to different assets like triple Q's. We got strategies for that. This one over here is for Bitcoin and this is basically like my daily scalping strategy that I would be applying to this indicator. um which has more or less taken over my short and medium-term analysis for Bitcoin. It's just it's just gotten things incredibly well. Um you can see the results right here. If you do want to follow it, you don't necessarily need to follow it to the tea. You could just use it as kind of like, you know, calls to action to take or to pay attention.

[00:10:50]Or you could literally play it out, you know, exactly as it is stated, but over the past uh 10 plus years, you know, for Bitcoin going back to 2013, 2014, it's posted very nice results over time, getting a profit factor of 1 spot 95, which is very, very nice. And of course, profitable trade rate or basically your win rate is just above 67%. Of course, doesn't mean it's always going to be winning. You get some periods of intense sideways chop. You saw it over here from uh March of 2021. Really not making any gains or really any losses on the equity curve until February of 2024. That's three [ __ ] years. So again, if you're looking at these things, you got to be in it for the long term. Similar to um simil similar to how we look at the what's it called? the quantum wave bounce which have actually just posted new all-time highs on the what's it called the um [ __ ] the equity curve uh that was actually quite recently it did take a nice step down of course after Bitcoin did reverse months ago um but as you can see right here like literally fresh new highs um as of recent you know so again when you have a long-term edge the main thing is to just stay in the game long enough to let it work for you and how do you do that don't overleverage don't be [ __ ] herpey derp greedy [ __ ] you know [ __ ] grease bag mc makec [ __ ] case.

[00:11:59]Uh but the longer that you stay on it without blowing up yourself, yes, those will work for you. Um and again, you know, this thing, it has taken periods of nasty losses, but it's over the long term. It's over the long term that these edges work for you. Anyways, uh cool.

[00:12:14]Yeah, I think that's where we're going to end things for today. Um I feel like there's some that I missed completely, but whatever. That's fine. We'll get it on tomorrow's live stream. We didn't really go over traditional markets today, but uh I don't know. Do we want to quickly go over that? getting a bit of a pullback as well. Kind of expected from yesterday's video. There is a little bit of bearish diverence developing right here on the daily time frame for SPY. Again, you know, for me, there is not a problem at all whatsoever with spy as long as you're above 6950 on a daily closing basis. All pullbacks are higher lows. And generally, I'm still looking for this market to go higher into next month and the month after that most likely. Maybe May ends up being more of a pullback month, but you know, I I don't think that this mark's going to have like a [ __ ] crash out from here. I think worst case scenario, we get to like 69 or 6950, which are great numbers. Anyways, uh yeah, and and and by the way, on those moves, I would be taking the opportunity to go more into some of my more winning long-term investments. Anyways, uh yeah, we'll end things right there. I have a couple of major announcements coming soon, which I'm really excited about, but uh still got some things to hash out in the background. Other than that, Central Command still available to you at zero cost, so you can secure your account if you so desire. You can leverage the AI agents over here as well. I'm going to post another video on how to set up the AI agents and my sort of um flow into how to uh how how I set up strategies using this um using also other AI which is actually really really fun. Uh I'll be releasing that video either today or tomorrow and other than that just want to wish you the best as always. Take care. Much love.