I Found Where EC Demand Goes Next

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Why is Singapore making EC's so much harder to buy? By now, you should have already heard about the new EC cooling measures. For those who are not aware, EC was actually introduced in 1995 to cater to families, right, who want to buy private condo but do not have the capacity to do so. So, why did government drop us a bomb with this series of new EC cooling measure? And this is why in this episode of Ask Joy, I'm going to share with you exactly why what's the triggering factor, as well as the potential impact of all these factors. But, before we begin, do take some time to subscribe to my channel, okay? Or scan the QR code if you got any question regarding your property portfolio in terms of restructuring or anything at all, please reach out to me. Having you to like this video will give you a lot of motivation to actually produce more of such useful content. So, this is the whole reason why government threw in such a extensive series of cooling measure this time for the EC. In fact, this is really the most extensive since um EC was actually introduced in 1995.

[00:01:21]One decade ago, which is like in 2016, right, the average EC price is only 782 uh per square foot. And currently, in 2026, based on the latest figure, right, per square foot is currently selling at 1,843.

[00:01:37]This whole increment is a increment of more than 130%, which is almost double, right? Last time, EC prices used to be at least 20 to 30% cheaper than private condo. And on top of that, right, if you're a buyer of brand new EC, you get to enjoy um up to 30,000 grant depending on which income range that you are in. But today, based on this latest price of 1,843 per square foot for a EC, sometime this price is also on par as a new launch such as the latest Tengah Garden Residences. And this is exactly why Tengah Garden Residences did so well. So I totally understand that why government want to have this series of cooling measure because the gap between the EC, brand new EC and a brand new condo, honestly, the line right now is a bit blurred. Government's intention right now is to bring the prices of this EC back to a range whereby it suits their original intention, which is to cater to families who want to upgrade to private condo but could not afford to do so. So here's the new set of uh measures that will take place for EC lands that are tender on or after 8th May 2026.

[00:03:05]We have got five uh changes over here.

[00:03:08]I'm going to go through every measure to share with you actually which other measure I think will have a huge impact on the EC market or on the property market moving forward. First, the changes in the minimum occupation period from 5 years to 10 years. By now you should already know that the two key driving factors for EC prices, uh the increment of EC prices, is that anyone can buy a on MOP except for foreigner, and also the changes in the financing method. EC users MSR, whereas resale EC users TDSR.

[00:03:44]I'm not going to dwell too much on the details, but if you like to watch the full explanation, you can click on the top right-hand corner of this video to watch the full video. Instead of taking 5 years to realize the first part of gold kind of. Right now you will need to take 10 years to realize this part of gold. And on top of that you have got about 3 to 4 years of waiting periods, which means that anyone who wants to buy a brand new EC today, the next round they can do a property restructuring, you you will be in 13 to 14 years time.

[00:04:21]Which for private, you could have already done three to four rounds of selling and buying. Even though this may be a put off for a lot of people, I do honestly think that sincere buyers, genuine buyers who still need a roof over their head will still be willing to wait and willing to pay.

[00:04:40]But of course I of course demand will be significantly reduced. Next is the changes in the privatization from 10 years to 15 years. Okay, last time of the current ECs right, they have to wait after 10 years then they can sell to foreigner, which they do expect another round of price search. But right now the ruling has been changed to 15 years means the new batches of EC need to wait for 15 years later then they can sell to foreigner. Honestly, this is the ruling that I think personally will have the least impact in the prices because of one key reason, foreigners have to pay ABSD if they were to buy this product.

[00:05:22]I'm going to show you this condo called Woodsville EC. Woodsville EC right TOP in 2000, was semi-privatized in 2005 and fully privatized in 2010. You can see that after every time where it's being privatized right, the price confirm will search one. Over here about 2 to 3% of the owners are actually foreigners. Next is Eastville. So this Eastville is the first EC to launch in Singapore. It first semi-privatized in 2004. You can see a round of search in terms of prices. After that, when it was fully privatized in 2009, the price took another search. And in terms of foreigner, it's about 3 to 4% ownership.

[00:06:06]These are the ECs that get to enjoy another round of price search after it became fully privatized. But, in 2011, something happened. And that is the implementation of ABSD for foreigners.

[00:06:21]In 2011, they started to implement 10% ABSD for foreigners. And you can see up to 2023, the ABSD has become 60%. So, technically, any EC that became fully privatized after 2011, they are not going to enjoy another round of price search because no foreigners will actually pay this amount of ABSD for a resale EC. And what's more is 99 year. I'm going to show you some of the latest EC that achieved the fully privatized status and did not enjoy any price search. Before we go to that, right, do not forget to subscribe to my channel. Click the like and subscribe uh button. This is one of the latest EC to achieve the fully privatized status.

[00:07:10]We have got Austville Residences. So, you can see Austville Residences, right, was semi-privatized in 2019.

[00:07:17]And yes, is there another round of search? Totally. And it became fully privatized in 2024, but do you see another round of search? Not at all. And in terms of the breakdown of ownership, right, we have got almost 0% of foreigners entering the EC market. Then, we also have another project called Blossom Residences. It was uh semi-privatized in 2019 as well. You see a round of search, but then after it became fully privatized in 2024, you do not see any point of search again. And in terms of the buyers profile, not even 0.something percentage for the foreign test, totally none of them, okay? So, this is exactly why I do think that this privatization ruling will not have a significant impact in the EC prices or in the market at all.

[00:08:08]Now, on to the type of payment scheme, so government is going to scrape off the deferred payment scheme. Honestly, what are the impact for this one? Yes, I think slightly because um the difference between normal and also deferred payment scheme is the 5% differences in terms of the down payment. And on top of that, if you let's say you are a second timer owning who owns a HDB, and you bought a brand new EC, you have to pay not only your HDB mortgage, but you also have to pay the brand new EC mortgage. But one of the key impact I see coming from the payment scheme is that a lot of even young family, right, who are first timer, and if they were to buy under the normal payment scheme, they may not be able to get the full loan amount, which hopefully after this set of new measures, perhaps government would think of increasing the income ceiling for ECs even. And lastly, the changes in first timer quota as well as the priority period. This is the measure that I think is going to change everything. This measure will have the most amount of impact. So, last time of 100% for example, we will have 70% set aside for first timer and 30% set aside for second timer.

[00:09:31]But it's going to be changed right now to 90% set aside for first timer and only 10% set aside for second timer. So, that's key change number one. The second change is the period. The priority period has been changed from 1 month to 2 years. I think this is the part where a lot of buyers get confused, so I'm just going to do a very detailed explanation over here. Based on the old EC ruling, on the first day of launch, we have got 30% set aside for second timer. And once this 30% quota is hit, second timer can only buy 1 month later.

[00:10:09]But right now, instead of 1 month, second timer need to wait for 2 years in order to be eligible. This priority period will be the very key reason to driving this kind of second timers who have got immediate needs also, driving them to not wait for these brand new ECs, but instead explore other type of properties in the market. For the sake of better understanding how this first timer quota as well as the priority period will impact, right? I'm going to show you Oriel of Tampines. So, Oriel Tampines, right, overall there's 760 units. It's a EC that has already been launched. Today, I'm going to use the launch day data for Oriel of Tampines to share with you the impact if Oriel Tampines were to launch under the new EC ruling. For Oriel of Tampines, the second timer quota, which is 30%, is actually 228 units. On the launch day itself, all 228 units were taken up. And 1 month after the launch, another 55 units were sold. So, it's very clear-cut that these 55 buyers, these 55 groups of buyers, are people who wanted to buy as second timers who wanted to buy on the launch day, but failed to do so because the second timer quota hit. And all in all, because of this current ruling, we have got 283 units that were being sold to second-timer.

[00:11:38]But, if today O R of Tampines were to launch under the new EC ruling, the new EC ruling only allow 10% of second-timer, which is only 76 units.

[00:11:51]And if there's only 76 units sold, right? The next group of second-timers who wish to enter, who wish to buy this uh brand new EC will have to wait 2 years. And what does that mean? They probably will have went somewhere to buy, right? And because of that, we will have 207 groups of misplaced buyers who will be looking at other opportunities in the market. Likewise, for River, we have got 572 units. On the launch day itself, right? The second-timer quota was also hit already. All 172 units were sold. And exactly 1 month later, we have got another 58 units sold to second-timer. So, all in all, second-timer quota take up 230 units, right? But, if River were to um launch under the new cooling measure, we will only have how many units sold?

[00:12:45]57. Because um 10% is set aside for second-timer, and the rest of the second-timer have to wait for 2 years later. And if they can't wait, in total, I have 173 groups of buyers being misplaced again.

[00:13:00]Which means that again, this group of buyer will also go out and find other opportunity. The biggest impact that this set of cooling measure will bring upon is that it will give birth to a huge group of buyers who do not know where they will be going. What I've said earlier is the five new measures, and right now, I'm going to share with you the aftermath of these new measures. But before we get to that, please like and subscribe to this video or subscribe to my channel. And if you do have any question at this point of time, please also, you know, feel free to reach out if you need to.

[00:13:38]So, the first impact is that there will be a huge surge in demand for the next five EC launches. Which five? These five. Because all these five EC launches will not be impacted by the new cooling measures. A lot of buyers will probably be rushing to buy because this they may feel that this is their last chance to get a unit under the old EC ruling.

[00:14:03]And second is the spillover effect. Now, I already mentioned there'll be buyers, second timers out there that did not manage to get a brand new EC unit.

[00:14:14]They'll be looking out for other opportunities in the market. And usually this group of buyers, where will they be looking at? They'll be looking at something where the price point is very close to the brand new EC. And what are they? They are the projects that is going to be launched close to the EC prices such as currently we have got Dairy Farm Residences, we have got Dairy Farm Walk area. And of course, we have got the Lentor Gardens. And third, the spillover effect to affordable resale condos. Like I said earlier, right?

[00:14:49]Today, if you're a buyer, your loan eligibility when you hit to when you go out and buy a resale condo versus your loan eligibility, if you were to buy a brand new EC is entirely different. This is based on the max household income of 16K because that's the income ceiling for EC. Based on a household income of 16K, you can only loan about maximum about 1 million for a brand new EC.

[00:15:15]But, if you were to buy a resale EC or even a a condo, you can loan up to 1.84 million. And assume you have the same amount of down payment, for example, you have a 600 over 1,000 of down payment over here, you can only afford maximum a 1.6 mil brand new EC, but in the resale market or in the brand new condo market, you can actually buy up to 2.4 million. For resale properties, they are in the range of, for example, 1.5 up to uh 2.2 or 2.4.

[00:15:52]This group of resale owners, the brand new EC buyers will be coming for you. And so, that will be the end of my sharing. If you do find this uh video useful again, please share with your friends who maybe they are facing a dilemma whether they should enter the next wave of EC or maybe they are exploring other options out of this brand new EC route. So, feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions. You know, that will see you in the next episode of Our Joy.