This Week In Charts Ep 262: Iran Peace Deal? Risk Is Back On, Gold Bottomed & Big Rally Starting?

追加: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]Markets in total melt-up mode here as the S&P has approached and hit 7,400 on the dot here and what an incredible move it has been this week.

[00:00:11]Markets completely decoupling from really any major news, macro, or fundamentals at this point here.

[00:00:18]And markets are just continuing to melt up, specifically led by you guessed it, semiconductors. There's the SMH.

[00:00:25]I'm doing this video Friday afternoon.

[00:00:26]We're currently sitting up 4.7% Really no news. We're just getting melt-up mode here and you can see capital inflows right now have just been in this this last couple of years really, but really have just gone parabolic and I've I've had a lot of um there was a lot of talk on the internet right now about short squeezing and things of that nature. I I you know, I'm in the camp here that this was this was a short squeeze a long time ago. We're now into just really deep long gamma territory and really we're just seeing a emergency stimulus being done, you know, quite frankly. That's the truth of it. So you can thank Scott Bessent and the White House for this type of a move here, but yeah, I mean you can see here right now even intraday and all call premiums on SMH are elevated. Elevated. If we look at the shorts um you know, just the short volume ratio here, it's really not exactly anything to write home about. In fact, there was really not that many shorts in it. So to me it's just really just a you know, it's it's gamma and fund manager chasing, but really liquidity. If you and if you guys are not day traders or active swing traders like I am, you can see you're not going to really see this on on like the daily chart, but you know, like intraday if we just look at an SPX here you know, it's very we're we're hardly getting you know, we get like one day a week where we have a chance to even you know, get a day trade in you know, for like a a buy.

[00:01:57]Every other day, you know, it's been like straight up, right? We're just going straight up. We got one this week, you know, yesterday. And it's it's very few far between. And it's very rare for ES to do this. You know, ES is very good at trapping. It likes to trap very often. But I mean, you we've had periods here where we're just going straight up here. Intraday without any kind of not even a retest of minor support, right? And you know, that's normal every now and then we get a lockout rally. We saw a couple of them last year.

[00:02:26]But for it to go on for this long is is it's unprecedented. There's never been a time in 125 years of the market where we've had a 15 and I think now 18% or something like that I think on NQ rally in what what 40 days after a 10% correction, right? We're not talking about 30% correction or 20%.

[00:02:49]We're talking about 10. So, this is unprecedented territory. You can see here that that line on NQ, but what I'm looking at right now on the QQQ.

[00:02:58]We are heading and this is this is pretty wild, right?

[00:03:02]So, you take the April low from last year.

[00:03:04]Draw it up. Low, low, low. We broke through it, tried to get back above and it sold. And now we're kind of hitting that so full circle moment here for the Nasdaq.

[00:03:16]And what an incredible run.

[00:03:18]We saw a little bit of weakness and I I'm seeing a few and I mean a few minor signs here, maybe some slowing. The breadth has slowed down a little bit. I've heard a lot of talk people complaining about the breadth, but it was very strong on that run up here. And it has backed off a little bit.

[00:03:35]Yesterday I saw a little deterioration and I'm seeing right now you know, volatility catch a little bit of a bid. And that is something that can happen with when you're making new all-time highs.

[00:03:44]The VIX does kind of inch up a little bit.

[00:03:47]These types of things signal hedges, uh institutional hedging. They're starting to uh you know, prepare for maybe a drop here.

[00:03:55]I mean, and at this point, you know, it's very hard to I mean, the market's ignoring everything, right? So, the street is open, you know, we get a peace deal uh news, the market pumps, and then it gets shot down or or a uh port in uh Iran gets bombed, and it doesn't the market doesn't go down, right? It's ignoring, right? It's all one-sided here.

[00:04:15]Um but at this point, I could see I mean, the triple Qs here are 50 points above their 20-day moving average, right? So, we could drop 50 points tomorrow, it'd still just be at the 20-day.

[00:04:28]Um so, at any point here, we could see, you know, a a pretty steep mean reversion. Um but the momentum here is is incredible, and I don't think I've seen anything this strong before um in my career.

[00:04:41]And that's it's for a long time.

[00:04:45]So, pretty incredible stuff here. Uh you know, Dow here still kind of grinding higher. Did hit it did touch 50k again this week.

[00:04:53]Uh IGV cloud software, it had a nice gap yesterday uh clearing the 100-day. So, if it can hold that, um this can, you know, maybe uh get towards the 100 handle.

[00:05:04]Um you know, I know there's a lot of sectors that can play catch up here. I I don't know if they're going to do that without the market consolidating a little bit first, but you know, so far the market has uh you know, we we have seen a little bit of a catch up here, not a ton yet, but um you know, the the key will be do we know when chips when chips top out, memory tops out, if that happens, you know, do other sectors play catch up? My guess is it will, but I think it'll be after some market consolidation. But uh nonetheless, Dow transports uh testing the 50-day.

[00:05:33]We got a bounce off of that. TLT uh also rebounded nicely this week. Uh had a little bit of a dip yesterday, but came right back. If you look at ZB, the bond futures, um that has held up, and it had a higher low there. And that's also helped out the market, right? Uh ZT, the two-year, getting a little bit of a bid.

[00:05:49]Still, you know, at the lower end than where I think Trump would like it, but um you know, it has come off the lows and that that does help out.

[00:05:59]Uh we also had jobs this morning. That was a beat. I figured that would be a beat. They would manufacture a number to get a good number to go into the weekend with.

[00:06:08]Um home builders have not liked the uh little rise in rates, though. Uh they have and you can see here I'll look at the We just looked at TLT, but I'll look at the 30-year yield. It has come up. Uh this week it's backed off a little bit, but that's put pressure on home builders and uh conversely, IYR, so REITs, has held up well and this is a sector that is a little less sensitive to rates than home builders are and this is on the verge of a big breakout here and I do have some IYR personally.

[00:06:36]Uh just full disclosure here, but I like this setup here on the monthly.

[00:06:40]Um look at this range here, very tight and it's starting to expand, so I think there's a lot of energy to release here and you know, there are like I like I said, I think this is a catch-up area.

[00:06:50]Um financials have um come in a little bit. I'm not going to get too worried until I see HYG down and HYG's holding up, so um additionally, regional banks are holding up well, right? Nothing terrible there. I think a lot of XLF's underperformance is due to Berkshire, honestly.

[00:07:07]Um which is at I think a four-year low relative to the S&P 500 right now.

[00:07:15]So, um but yeah, broker dealers here, again, they're holding up pretty well. They're not that far off all-time highs, so I'm not going to make too much uh noise over the XLF just yet.

[00:07:27]Credit spreads also appear to be pretty tight, too, so oil backing off this week on peace deal news, but it it did it did hold up and it's holding 95.

[00:07:39]So, we have a tightening range now and it's it's pretty wide but it is tightening.

[00:07:45]So we'll be you know we'll be keeping an eye on this. Oil has been uh you know it's holding the 50-day. It's been in a tight range. We'll see how that goes. I do like XLE here and I did pick some up this week. Um I have some good support at 55 and I think this will result in a higher low here and I I do think that energy stocks can hold up into the summer which is what I was originally kind of predicting here.

[00:08:06]So XOP as well that is fractionally higher today and OIH is you know very small dip off the highs. I still think that can get to 500.

[00:08:16]Dollar index hanging in there okay.

[00:08:18]Um still trying to hold on to 98.

[00:08:21]And uh you know again uh you know you hear this funny the narrative right? The narrative is the dedollarization this and that but I mean right now right US exports just surged to a record high 8.2 million barrels per day. So we had the UAE last week opening a swap line and leaving I mean it left OPEC right? Um that's a big deal.

[00:08:46]So the dollar I mean it's just interesting to me that this narrative as is like the dollar is in like this swift decline is just simply not true. It just simply isn't and if it were then um we wouldn't be able to do what we're doing here with Scott Bessent would be able to pump the Qs like this.

[00:09:03]>> [snorts] >> But um anyway gold and silver had pretty good uh rebounds.

[00:09:09]You know gold had a nice pop the other day. Silver was uh actually intriguing to me and I noted this earlier in the week when we had a trying to remember exactly where it was.

[00:09:23]I believe it was yeah so it was Monday.

[00:09:26]Okay so it was Monday.

[00:09:27]So that would have been right here.

[00:09:30]So gold you notice how gold had a slight ever so slight lower low to last week on Monday but silver had the higher low and I said oh that's of a risk on signal."

[00:09:38]And uh lo and behold, silver popped up through this trend line. So, trying to reclaim the 100 day. If you can get above that, it reclaims trend on all you know, on the daily time frame there.

[00:09:49]So, precious metals having a pretty good week.

[00:09:52]Platinum still um trying to firm up. Still needs a little bit more work there.

[00:09:58]Um palladium backed off yesterday. Still got to clear like 1580.

[00:10:05]But yeah, they had a good week here.

[00:10:06]Copper also finally through that 620 level. We'll see if they whack this before the end of the day because they have not wanted copper to get above 620.

[00:10:14]The last time I mean 1 2 Look at how many times they've hit this.

[00:10:19]But there it is.

[00:10:22]So, copper ready to break out here. Speaking of getting whacked uh the yen got hit a few times few more times this week. Look at this. They can't even keep it down.

[00:10:35]They really just need the Fed to cut.

[00:10:39]But I don't think this is a problem yet unless this really starts to unwind lower.

[00:10:44]But yeah, I mean like with the amount of leverage here in NQ, it certainly could be if that you know, were to start happening.

[00:10:53]Bitcoin had a good week as well. That has pushed up.

[00:10:56]Uh Ethereum's been a little bit of a lagger, but Solana is actually starting to inch up now, too. So, SOL uh catching a little bit of a bid. If you can clear 98 or so, that's got some runway to it.

[00:11:08]But yeah, crypto's even starting to firm up a little bit, too.

[00:11:12]So, again, market continuing uh higher.

[00:11:15]We'll see if this uh trend line offers any resistance. Um nothing has mattered so far, but we'll see we'll see when that uh if when that does. We'll be watching for rotation should that happen as well.

[00:11:26]So, anyways, guys, we'll wrap it up here. Don't forget to come find Jason on patreon and me on countabletrades.com.

[00:11:32]And we'll see you guys all next week.