Middle East Tensions Rising: Oil Prices Rise as U.S-Iran Peace Talks are Abruptly Postponed

[00:00:04]This will show you some of my indicators, but in my last video I talked about the Elliott Wave count.

[00:00:08]Here's the lower high scenario on the S&P. I talked about this for the S&P and the NASDAQ. You have a wave one and a two and it's done and I talked about that. You can uh link that video at the end of this video if you want to see it, but keep that in mind as we're looking at the indicators. Confirm a lower high or is the wave five not done yet? If if wave five is done over here, then you have a wave one and a two now underway and possibly or we're in wave three already. My last video I talked about the that if the peak is not in yet and we go higher, then I talked about the five-leg push higher here for the wave five forming a double top pattern. Those are the two Elliott Wave counts that I think are most likely. Looking for a five-leg push higher. The other scenario suggests it's done. This scenario uh would uh suggest it's not. So, those are the two most likely outcomes whether we get one more push higher and then get a dramatic drop or whether we have already peaked back on June 2nd. So, that in mind as we're looking at some of the indicators and looking at crude crude oil bouncing off the 200-period moving average with the nine count and some of these things I'm talking about.

[00:01:16]And happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there. Happy Father's Day.

[00:01:20]Hey, let me just run through my indicators real fast just so you can look at them. Here's the S&P signals here still bearish.

[00:01:27]Possible lower high in play here.

[00:01:30]NASDAQ 100 sheer daily chart.

[00:01:34]Uh signals mixed. Uh signals some signals have turned back to bullish, others remain bearish here. We flipped to bullish and flipped right back to bearish uh here right after the Fed sell-off.

[00:01:45]Here we got right back above my rainbow cloud and again we're resting right on it. So, again, be watching. Do we get a lower high or do we try to push and challenge our June 2nd peak?

[00:01:57]Other signals turn back to bullish.

[00:01:59]It could still challenge the highs, still fill the gaps. S&P has not filled the gaps, Nasdaq 100 has. We turn down to get lower high, we got to get a lower low, and see signals slip back to bearish.

[00:02:15]Here, signals turn back to bullish.

[00:02:17]Is really going sideways or up? Going sideways, we get a lower high, go higher, you probably get the fifth of the fifth and complete the top and then reverse. See which way it plays out.

[00:02:27]Again, I talked about the Elliott wave count in great length in the detail in my last update.

[00:02:32]Nasdaq 100 daily chart here.

[00:02:37]Weekly chart here, try to turn bearish previous week, but we get a bottoming tail candle of indecision. Now, we get another candle of indecision. Do we have the candle of indecision continue to take us higher, or do we get a lower high and a reversal?

[00:02:54]Now, at the highs of the week, we tried to flip the signal here. It was unsuccessful, and here we still have a bearish signal. We got the momentum warning, a warning that momentum was going to shift 3 weeks ago. That so far has been correct, but now we have either a lower high or a higher high that is setting up here for the five-leg push higher. Is the five-leg push higher done, or is it not yet done, as I've been talking about?

[00:03:23]Signals back to bullish here for the S&P.

[00:03:26]Signals back to bullish here.

[00:03:29]Signals back to bullish here.

[00:03:32]We had the divergences play out, and the signal turn bearish here. It still remains bearish, so mixed signals.

[00:03:39]That's because we're going sideways.

[00:03:41]Now, it's a waiting game. Do we confirm a lower high and get a lower high, lower low? Do we pop higher above the June 2nd peak, complete the five-leg push higher if it is not yet done. That's the $64,000 question. It's a waiting game.

[00:03:55]And signals here in the weekly timeframe still bullish. We have these diversions within the weekly timeframe. If they begin to play out, then the candle can be a reversal, uh you know, doji spinning top-looking candlestick, or it could be a continuation to challenge the high.

[00:04:09]We'll be watching our candle here. We did get that topping tail on the Dow, though.

[00:04:17]And again, a similar candlestick on the Nasdaq weekly chart. And I talked about the candlesticks in my last video. Uh same thing here, though. The bars have to turn back to red.

[00:04:26]They marked a reversal here at the bottom, and they remain bullish at this time. Price is going to go lower. We'll have to see something like this or like this with these reversals.

[00:04:42]Please support the channel. Please support the channel with the link directly below. That allows me to be able to provide you this information. If you could take a moment to help out, I would really appreciate it. If you follow the link below, it'll take you to a secured site. You can donate any amount you want.

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[00:05:13]Please let me know you want this information by supporting the channel today. I thank you for your consideration for that. At the end of the video, I'll be talking about the Dow. And uh just want to give you a little preview of coming attractions. Again, the topping tail we got on the Dow, this is what I'll be watching closely as it's slamming into resistance levels.

[00:05:32]We have a topping tail in the form of a shooting star on the Dow. It has to be confirmed. The S&P gets a black candle of indecision, back-to-back black candlesticks, meaning that we opened higher but closed lower. But you got a candle of indecision in the form of a spinning top, not moving to new high, the Dow did. The Dow sold off with a hawkish Fed that expecting rate hikes before the end of the year. Similar candlestick on the Nasdaq weekly chart, and again, I talked about these candlesticks in my last update, I'll link it at the end of this one. Also, a very interesting candlestick on the Russell as it's forming multiple points of divergence here on the RSI. We're getting a candlestick more of a doji. The real body was a little bigger, it could be a hanging man or a sloppy hanging man, maybe, but a sloppy hanging man or a doji looking kind of a candlestick here that if again, we close down sharply, closing below this last week's lows, then you can confirm these candlesticks on the Dow and on the Russell. Candles of indecision for lower highs. We saw the Russell and the Dow both make new highs, but the S&P and the Nasdaq made lower highs. So, they got candles of indecision, so we'll see if any of these candlesticks get confirmed next week.

[00:06:46]And I'll talk more about the Dow charts towards the end of the video.

[00:06:51]With tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran canceling the peace negotiations, so futures down about jumping higher 1%.

[00:07:03]We've had the stochastic roll over here on the S&P. We have again what is either going to be a confirmation of a lower high here on the histogram or histogram, the awesome oscillator or again, if that five leg scenario I talked about plays out, then we could get a triple divergence on the RSI and here on the awesome oscillator of the daily chart. But if you look at the future, which traded after the the market closed on Thursday and on into the Friday session, but are are now closed over the weekend here.

[00:07:34]Again, got another green bar, but we were down we're down more during the lows of Friday session for futures, but you ended up down uh 0.19% down 14 Sorry about that. Had a cough. Down 14 and 1/2 points. We tested the 20 period here with futures. So, again, watching the Elliott wave count. Do we go up and get one more push higher, slam into uh the previous high, take it out, do you get a double top, or do we get a lower high here and invalidate that? So, that's what I'm watching. Things calm down by Monday and the markets celebrate things have calmed down, or do they still tension remain high? We'll see how all of this unfolds. This is the S&P futures right here. And again, I think you're eventually going to see red bars that confirm the lower high or getting a triple divergence, one or the other. Get a triple divergence, you can do the same thing here on the S&P uh daily chart with the MACD and get something that looks like that. See how it unfolds. Stochastic's already rolled over. It's dropped back below the 70 or the 80 area. If we're going to see a sell-off, we got to drop below the 10 and 20 period moving averages to get a reversal of conditions, dropping below the lower boundary of the cloud, and that means uh taking out right below that the 50 period moving average, the green line.

[00:08:49]Same thing with the Nasdaq 100. Here's the Nasdaq 100. Again, uh we've got a lower high so far. Do we get a higher high? We've got a divergence that gave us a peak. Do we get a triple divergence?

[00:09:00]So, again, we're going to be watching to see how all this unfolds early on next week. We have Nasdaq 100 futures down by about um almost 73 points, down a quarter of a percent. And again, same thing here. Do we get a lower high or do we get And we went back and filled the gaps on Nasdaq 100. We did none of the S&P. This is the Nasdaq 100 futures, NQ. Do we get a lower high here eventually that uh gives us confirmation of a lower high, or do we get a divergence? And same thing with the MACD.

[00:09:32]If we pop higher, again, we can get wave five of five, as I talked about my last video. I'll link that at the end of this video if you want to see those Elliott wave counts. I went into great length and detail showing you the bullish and bearish count. Both of them complete will complete a wave five. One of them is going to get invalidated. A five will be followed by bigger sell-off and that may have already started if our recent peak on June 3rd on the NASDAQ and on June 2nd on the S&P 500 continue to hold as a peak.

[00:10:07]Here's a weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100.

[00:10:10]We got a red bar last week followed by a green bar this week. We'll see if again we get a lower high or a higher high followed by more red bars. I put the Elliott wave count in the last video.

[00:10:21]Link it at the end of this video. See the counts I'm looking at. S&P got another red bar. And again, this is showing that momentum is waning on the S&P 500, but sometimes you get, you know, bar you know, two or three bars and you still go higher and then you turn. Other times you get the red bars and turn immediately back over here in January or pardon me, February 2025 we had the diversions and then the red bars followed and we had already started to turn with the diversions.

[00:10:54]Other times we had a diversions here, we got the red bars, but we still went higher to the January high before we got the sell-off after the January 2026 peak down to the March low. There's a multiple point diversions here, so we'll see what happens with that. But you got to flip the weekly back and drop back below the 10-week moving average and flip it back to a bearish reversal of conditions if we're going to see a sell-off.

[00:11:21]You got to take out the 10 period and flip the cloud back to red, the bars back to red. That's going to be the case.

[00:11:30]We had We had the markets drop sharply on Wednesday with the Fed now expecting uh a rate hike before the end of the year and five of the voting members are expecting two hikes or a 50 basis point hike. Remember, that's what happened right before it's a right after the market peaked 2000. We sold off with the CPI data, concerns about demand pull inflation, turns the Fed would have to raise rates, market sold off. Fed The Fed did, they raised by half a percent.

[00:11:59]Market eventually set up a lower high and had tanked by 20% shortly after that. As I said, the 2007 top was similar, it was a an oil shock coupled together with the early stages of the uh subprime mortgage crisis. Here we've seen the S&P peak on June 2nd. We sold off by just around 5% here and then we've rebounded back up and I told you we're going to rebound back up towards the moving averages or towards trying to fill the gaps. And if you fill the gaps, then maybe this is a wave four and a five as I've talked about.

[00:12:29]But if it is a wave one and two down like this and we're now starting wave three, we need to take out this low and this would mean that we're in crash wave three of our first leg down and it could be pretty ugly. So, we'll be watching and again eventually I think we're going to move back here to the lower end of the cloud and the 200 period moving average for a test taking out the 50 period moving average. But we might pop higher still before that happens if the wave five is not done in the five wave push higher which I talked about in this video briefly and went into great length and detail in my last update. Nasdaq 100 dropped by 8.34% uh dropping here from the peak on June 3rd, the day after the S&P 500 peaked. And then we saw the sell-off. We saw the trend lines break as I talked about in my other charts.

[00:13:19]And I told you again, we're going to rally up to these moving averages or try to fill the gaps. Nasdaq got above Nasdaq 100 got above the moving averages as they got a bearish cross, the 10 crossing below the 20 period. The 10 is a red line, the 20 is a blue line, and as we did that, we filled the gaps. The question now is do we pop higher and end up getting these double top patterns with the second higher high or and and this is a wave five and it's the five leg push isn't done or is the five leg push done over here and we now have a one and a two and we're now about to get three and get a lower high and a lower low. Same thing as I talked about with the S&P 500.

[00:13:57]We do then again we're likely headed back here towards the cloud and the 200 period moving average and eventually to get back all of this in all likelihood. If we come back here to the March 30th low, again there's the possibility of massive head and shoulder patterns developing.

[00:14:18]Now I warned you that crude oil was getting a nine count going into the 200 period moving average. This is crude oil futures and it's up. We had the holiday on on Friday but futures still traded after the market session on Thursday on into the early part of Friday's session and we saw crude oil go higher by just under 1%.

[00:14:44]I warned about the stochastic getting the bullish cross. I warned about the 200 period moving average that would likely be the place where we would bounce it within a few days. I told you that in the previous over the previous last few days.

[00:15:03]I warned you that we were setting up a nine count a 13 nine to be exact a double sequence count bullish signal with crude oil into the 200 period moving average. I warned you about that earlier in the week. We ended up getting it there on Wednesday and then we had a test of the 200. We were just above it with a candle of indecision on Wednesday. On Thursday, we tested the 200 period moving average in the daily timeframe.

[00:15:27]And then here, this is the bar with futures and after hours after markets closed. Again, we're seeing futures go up by about one just under 1% bouncing off the one 200 period moving average as tensions rise in the Middle East. Iran boycotts going to Switzerland for the particular talks. Gee, who told you that was going to happen? Well, they were supposed to sign an MOU there, which they did, but I told you even if they signed it, again, they'll end up violating it and it's going to end up falling apart. So, again, crude oil bouncing off the 200 period with a 13 9 count here in the daily timeframe.

[00:16:09]And we still have the 50 way up here.

[00:16:10]There's no death cross and we are trying to test the 200 here bounce off of it.

[00:16:17]Here you can see that on WTI and again, they're trying to bounce off of that 200 period moving average. Again, oil has been dropping because markets believe the Strait of Hormuz going to be reopened and stay opened.

[00:16:31]That's why we've seen crude oil go down.

[00:16:33]This red line is where crude oil was right before the war started. This right here is this uh gap higher is when the war started in late February and we saw markets reacted at at the start of the new week and after it had begun.

[00:16:53]I told you we were getting very oversold. We got a bullish cross and then we're getting this bounce with crude futures for the Monday bar. Marked the bullish fall the smallest smaller bullish falling wedge here. I've marked the larger one here and again, we're hitting this dotted trend line, but you also have potentially I should say bull flags. The smaller bull flag and the larger bull flag, but you also have potentially a little bullish falling wedge, right here. And with crude futures, we're breaking out of that or we're attempting to break out of that. As the trading for the Monday session is not yet done, it will spill over into the new week of trading, but you have a bullish falling wedge there.

[00:17:34]So, again, the ink wasn't even dry on the deal. Uh Trump signed it on on Wednesday the 17th and the here in the US time, ink The ink wasn't even dry and Hezbollah struck Israel. Israel's struck Hezbollah retaliated back.

[00:17:49]Then Hezbollah struck Israel again, killing four IDF uh soldiers. Israel hit back. Again, Iran continues to demand, you know, Israel withdraw from southern Lebanon.

[00:18:05]The reason why they're there is because Hezbollah, Iran's proxy group, and Iran is probably ordering Hezbollah to do all this stuff so that they can claim that Israel is violating the cease-fire.

[00:18:15]Israel's not even part of the cease-fire agreement. They didn't sign anything.

[00:18:19]They want to drive a wedge between the US and Israel, and they're trying to put pressure on Trump surrounding these negotiations, surrounding this extension of the cease-fire deal to try to make Israel withdrawing from Lebanon, southern Lebanon, that deal. Israel has moved into southern Lebanon because Hezbollah, the proxy group of Iran that is working within Lebanon, this isn't Lebanon doing this. This is Iran's proxy group, Hezbollah, doing all this. They were striking civilians and striking civilian cities and military sites. Again, the civilians have had to move away from northern Israel. Again, they're trying to drive out the Israelis and make it an unsafe place to live, make Israel an unplay unsafe place to live. Can't defeat Israel Israel's military, they can make people want to leave by making life unsafe. And And And since this so-called ceasefire between Hezbu- Lebanon or I don't know what they like Hezbollah wouldn't abide by it, this ceasefire back in April, Hezbollah has fired over 2,500 rockets on Israel.

[00:19:36]They respond and Iran feigns outrage every time. What is Israel doing is responding to them being attacked. Even the US news media doesn't bother reporting that again Israel was attacked first and they're responding retaliating to what was done to them. The cartels in South America were to strike Texas or New Mexico or California or something like that, even a military base, were to kill people even if they weren't even if they didn't kill anybody, Trump would not respond.

[00:20:11]So, Iran knows absolutely Israel's going to respond and that's why they're ordering their Hezbollah is taking their their marching orders from the Iranian regime. I'm going to attack Israel so Israel will respond so Iran could feign outrage and say that the the uh the MOU's being violated and Israel hasn't agreed to nothing between the US and Iran. Tensions continue to rise and this popped crude oil higher crude oil futures as markets were closed on Friday and futures started to sell off so new tensions mount, the VIX is predicting a down day either Monday or Tuesday. We get that lower high scenario then maybe we see that happen. Talked about my last update the leg push higher, one more push higher for five leg if if we're in wave five.

[00:20:56]Sorry about that, I had to take a call.

[00:20:58]We're watching does the S&P get a lower high or does it get one more pop higher and then get the higher high and a double top and I talked about the Elliott wave counts in my last update, I'll link that video at the end of this one. Since continue to rise, I was seeing crude oil tick back up and I still think this deal is going to end up falling apart even if it is extended.

[00:21:15]And again, Trump's really worried about the midterm elections. There's been real concern uh and I think that's probably why Trump's going this avenue going down this avenue rather than continuing his military campaign. You know, if if the US continues and goes forward with combat operations uh real concern that Iran is going to strike uh the oil infrastructure in the Gulf states surrounding Gulf states. There's real concern that that's going to create a global economic crisis hiking crude oil to nosebleed levels and tanking the stock market ahead of the midterm elections and into a recession or even something worse if we had a real oil crisis here. And again, I do think there will be an oil shock. I don't know to what extent it will be. I think that that is weighing into Trump's thinking and why he's trying to pursue this ahead of the term elections. I think it's about two things. It's about markets and about midterms for Trump right now.

[00:22:21]Stock market's down and oil's higher ahead of the midterm elections and the risk for Trump is that his party doesn't win the midterm elections and if the Democrats win, then his whole second the whole second half of his second term will be thrown out the window. It will It will be shelved. It will be blocked if the Democrats take control of the house or the Senate or both in the midterm election. The Democrats really In order to really a slam dunk at the midterm elections, they've got to have the stock market tanking, which is what I think we're going to have right before the midterm elections. And the Democrats have to have the crude oil spiking, which is what I think we're likely going to have. I think it's what's going to happen.

[00:23:05]And I just want to finish my thought. I got sidetracked here.

[00:23:09]If we see markets tank ahead of the midterm elections, again, we could see the new Fed chair, Kevin Walsh, Walsh be forced to cut rates. Again, they're going to They're The Fed will panic eventually when markets begin to crash.

[00:23:21]And we saw Powell do that. We saw Powell do that right before the general election, and then he started cutting rates, and then he stopped right after the election. Most Fed chairs don't do stuff like that, but this Fed chair, this new Fed chair, he's going to be forced to do that along with the other the rest of the members of the committee because the Fed is going to panic. And again, Powell has left uh the new Fed chair a mess. The new Fed chair is making mistake the same mistakes Powell was in that he should be slashing rates right now because we're going to move into recession.

[00:23:51]Eventually, he would Again, the guy uh coming off as a hawk, he's going to quickly have to change his tune on that.

[00:23:59]He'll have to choose between fighting inflation or supporting the economy, and they will choose. And he And he was even asked about that at the the the press conference, and he went around beat around the bush. Well, I don't have to choose.

[00:24:12]Pretty much dodging the question. He's going to have to choose. Are they going to try to fight inflation, or are they going to support the economy? They'll choose to support the economy. Coming off like a hawk, and again, the narrative is going to be that the Fed can't cut cut rates. They're going to have to raise rates now. And again, that's what the betting markets are now betting. And why we should see a bigger show off, then the Fed will shock markets. Even though inflation is high, markets could think, okay, even if Fed does end up raising rates like they did in 2000, they'll quickly reverse themselves, or they won't do it like in 2007. They'll just shock markets when the markets aren't expecting it. Uh the Fed will shock them, and they'll panic, and they'll cut rates. In both cases, they panicked.

[00:24:52]In 2000, they raised rates, and markets began to crash, and they panicked. 2007 they didn't raise rates. The markets were crashing on the early stages of the subprime mortgage crisis and the oil shock, the the concerns about the inflation going higher and the weakening labor market. Eventually, the Fed panicked. So, once at one time they they they did raise rates and then they reversed themselves.

[00:25:17]At the top they didn't, so we'll see what happens. Have a very similar situation that in 2007 the Fed has already begun to cut rates, but they paused.

[00:25:27]2007 they had already begun to cut rates. They moved to jumbo cuts once markets tanked and panicked. Fed panicked, markets were tanking I should say. Eventually, I think there's going to be uh markets tanking right behind of the midterm elections, but I think the Fed will panic on that and they will do jumbo cuts ahead of the midterm elections in all likelihood, meaning that it's going to happen in all likelihood in less than 4 and 1/2 months before the November elections.

[00:25:56]Now, I'm talking about all this cuz this this could really the midterm elections and what happens before them uh and the market tanking maybe ahead of the midterm elections and oil spiking or Trump now as we get closer 4 and 1/2 months to the midterm elections, maybe that's go going into his thinking and his strategy is now to okay, let's let Iran drag out negotiations. We'll see what happens or if his hand will soon be forced right before the midterm elections were here over the summer. Again, I'm not on either one of these political parties, so I have no dog in the fight. I think most politicians are corrupt. Explaining all this to you because this is stuff that could really impact the stock market just like recent volatility with with tech, just like the Fed now coming out and saying, "Hey, half the voting members saying, 'Hey, we think there's going to be a rate hike before the end of the year. Which again, could really impact markets. So, just these different issues, these different catalysts all could allow the bearish divergences on the monthly charts to begin to play out.

[00:27:05]Say this, uh I think why I'm saying that about Trump concerned about the economy so concerned about the economy all of a sudden and and the midterm elections is his recent statements about he that he didn't want to be you know, another Herbert Hoover uh you know, Herbert Hoover Hoover presidency.

[00:27:23]Herbert Hoover is the president in 1929 right before the stock market crashed and that was a president as we moved into the Great Depression. I think that's uh weighing on Trump's thinking here. But nevertheless, I digress. By the way, with all this back and forth between Hezbollah and Israel uh again, supposedly there's this new ceasefire, but other media outlets are reporting that that it's not being kept.

[00:27:50]So, who knows? Things look like come Sunday when futures reopen and on on Father's Day when futures reopen. Happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there. And we'll see what happens going into Monday's session. The oil prices rise after Iran uh postponed the talks in Geneva.

[00:28:10]Nevertheless, I digress. Again, I think this will eventually fall apart. Even if it goes to 60 days, again, there's not going to be a deal. Iran will never agree to abandon their nuclear program.

[00:28:23]Trump gave up all of his leverage with the blockade for a promise that they would do that. This paper means nothing.

[00:28:30]They've made these promises that they're not pursuing their nuclear weapon in the past and they are. They did the same thing in 2003 and 2015.

[00:28:39]As I've said, I think you will see a decline ahead of the midterm elections.

[00:28:43]Iran, their master negotiators, they wanted the strikes to stop. They've stopped in the first round of the ceasefire. They got the United States to stop, but here they wanted the blockade removed. They wanted to sell their oil, and they wanted to extend the negotiations. They got every single thing they wanted. They are outmaneuvering Trump, the guy that wrote The Art of the Deal. Iran's writing the new book on it. Question is, when Trump realizes, and he may realize it if he's just trying to get negotiations past the midterm elections so his party can win, so he can continue putting forth his agenda. The Democrats take control back of Congress, or you know, either the House or the Senate or both, again, it's going to slam the brakes on his agenda. Maybe his strategy is to, you know, negotiate past this, and hopefully crude oil stays down in 4 and 1/2 months to the midterm elections, but again, stock market tanking. Again, the monthly charts are suggesting that's going to be the case ahead of the midterm elections. Crude oil spiking ahead of the midterm elections. Odds greatly favor Trump's party's going to lose the election, and the Democrats will take back control of either the House or the Senate, one or both. What happens here with all of that, but that could be in his thinking. If there are huge violations of the ceasefire, then again, his hand may be forced sooner rather than later. Or if there is a strike in the United States from, say, a sleeper cell, God forbid, or something happens like with what happened recently happened with the recently happened with the Apache helicopter, and somebody gets hurt, those things going to this whole deal is going to fall apart, go by the wayside. So, we'll see what happens, but Iran violated the ceasefire multiple times. The first ceasefire, now this extended one, again, it's going to be violated. Hezbollah is going to continue to strike Israel, and again, Iran's trying to make that part of mission, or trying to force the hand to to try to they can to to put pressure for Israel to have to withdraw from Lebanon, eventually try to make that part of the deal if it's what they're claiming, which there's not going to be a deal. They're not going to agree to abandon their nuclear weapons. They're not going to agree to hand over the already highly enriched uranium that's buried under all the rubble, hoping they can drag all of this out and put enough political pressure on Trump to where he just goes away and doesn't resume any more combat operations and then they can recover. Likely not going to end that way, but question is, does all of this take place over the summer, tensions rise up, or right ahead of the midterm elections, or after? Monthly charts are suggesting we're going to see a a summer sell-off. Showed you those monthly charts in my last video, link it at the end of this video. Yeah, if any of this rattles the markets or if it's calm, uh things calm down and markets celebrate come Monday, or do they sell off uh Monday or Tuesday as the Vix is suggesting? Watching do we get a lower high or a higher high on the S&P and the Nasdaq.

[00:31:40]Yeah, one thing to be aware of, the Dow is pushing up into this upper boundary here from these previous highs back over here, uh and in here in the weekly time frame it did get a topping tail. The Dow just pushing above that. If we take if we take uh the highs here and connect this high to this high, and this high is just under the connecting of these previous two highs, and we've just slightly overthrown that trend line. If and if we connect that uh these two highs over here to the peak over here, we had from the January sell-off down to the March low. So, again, just uh some trend lines I'm looking at on the Dow.

[00:32:20]And you can see that it closed just under it with connecting those previous uh highs, and then again, if we had touched this connected to this one right here, then you're just overthrowing it. But, uh we got a night count a couple weeks ago, and we've now gone a little bit higher, but you got a topping tail here, and you got back-to-back reversal bars with the Dow. But Dow had a possible hanging man, but it turned out to be a bottoming tail continuation.

[00:32:42]And now you get a topping tail in the form of a shooting star. So, this is a reversal bar, but it means absolutely nothing unless it's confirmed by closing below. If we start selling off closing below this past week's low and then getting a follow through here in the weekly time frame.

[00:33:01]We got our shooting star shooting star at topping tail on the Dow where we got a candle of indecision on the S&P 500 as I talked about my last update.

[00:33:12]That's really giving us in the monthly time frame. The month is not closed yet.

[00:33:15]We still have you know, more time, but it is giving us this rising wedge in the monthly time frame.

[00:33:23]This is from the 2020 low. If we exclude the shadow, you have an even larger rising wedge going all the way back.

[00:33:30]Hang on, my trend line moved out of me.

[00:33:32]Going all the way back to the 2009 lows.

[00:33:34]So, the Dow weekly and the monthly chart.

[00:33:37]Here it is on the weekly one more time.

[00:33:38]Again, a topping tail in the weekly time frame. So, something to pay attention to on the Dow with a shooting star candlestick.