Cardano (ADA) - Who's Still Here? (2026 / 2027 Price Prediction)

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily discord updates. So, the market situation unfortunately is still very very boring which happens to look exactly like what we did for example back in that area over there back in the previous bare market. But you should already know this. I think right now the charts are probably waiting for the b market support band to catch up. So once the b market support band gets to maybe around 27 cents or even 26 cents that's when the price might test it and that's when we're finally going to start getting a move to the downside. And yeah I mean on the bitcoin chart on the 4hour at least we are not looking too great right here.

[00:00:46]We keep going down and we got rejected by the b market support band. And by we keep going down I mean that on the RSI keeps going down but the price kept forming higher highs which is again bearish divergence on the daily chart we broke below the moving average on the RSI and we even closed below it which happened exactly back in this area over here. So, if we're at that point right there, and if the local top is in, I would expect the next move to the downside to maybe put us at around $70,000, then the price is going to try, you know, starting a much bigger reversal, but it's going to get rejected by the moving average on the daily RSA, which is more than likely going to lead to Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 to continue this pattern. We kind of need a drop like that to happen in my opinion.

[00:01:27]Right now, even though the market situation is boring, not many people are out of the market. And for example, in the previous couple of cycles, the bare market only stopped after everyone was out. I mean, not everyone obviously, but after most of the people were out. And that's exactly what happened at $15,000.

[00:01:45]Just to give you an idea of how much we went down every single bare market. From the all-time highs to the bare market low in 2021, for example, we went down about 76%. Back in the 2018 cycle, from that high to the bare market low, we went down about 84%. And right now in 2013 from these highs to let's say the bare market lows it was about 87%. So in every single cycle we went down a bit less than in the previous cycle. Let's say we go down about 70% in this cycle from the alltime highs. 70% is going to put us at let's say $38,000 which just happens to be exactly where I'm expecting Bitcoin to bottom. But of course it could drop a bit. let's just say lower, maybe to $28,000 to get to the 200% extension, but that's not really necessary. What we have to do is form a fivewave move to the downside for a much bigger C-wave and then we can finally focus on getting to new alltime highs in the next couple of years. After that, the RSI on the daily is a downtrend. And on the ADA chart right here on the, you know, daily RSI, we tried testing the moving average on the daily RSI many times. And unfortunately, we never bounced off of it, which is telling me that the third wave is probably going to overextend to 19 cents or even 15 cents or to maybe copy exactly what we did back in the previous bare market. We can drop to like 13 cents and then the fourth wave move up. is probably going to be something like that over there which is going to mean that let's say after the October lows and maybe even you know before that maybe let's say we get this move right now and then we go up until let's say the end of August or the end of September and then in October we go down again in the fifth wave and then I get a wick like that over there. So if something like that happens then I'm going to say that maybe in this cycle ADA is not going to bottom months after Bitcoin bottoms like it did for example back there. ADA bottomed about six months after Bitcoin and back in the first cycle it was the exact same thing.

[00:03:33]So Bitcoin bottomed let's say in December of 2018 but ADA got another low back in March of 2020. So it took another year and a half to actually get another low. Of course you could say that maybe this would not have happened without the pandemic. But yeah, you get the idea. Even if that's the case at some point after we get above the B market support band like we did for example back there or back there we are going to test it. we're probably going to drop below it, which is either going to be a lower low or it's going to be a higher low like for example back there and then the price can finally start going up again. That's what I'm kind of waiting for to be honest. Even though we are above the 50% support level, keep in mind that in the previous bare market, we also went sideways above the 0.32 support level right here at 42 cents and then after we broke below it, which happened to be exactly after we got rejected by the ban support band.

[00:04:23]That's when we dropped exactly to the next support zone, which was the 50% support zone. And you get the idea. So yeah, the market situation is boring, but again, I'm telling you that these boring periods are the best time to make money. Of course, I do believe that the prices are probably going to go down a bit more, but I mean, if you just take a look at the history of the price action of Cardano and you take a look at what happened every single time the price went down for a couple of months or even years. For example, back here after we went down from $130 to like 2 cents, even though it was looking like ADA was dead in the long term, it still managed to recover and it still managed to get to new alltime highs. But this obviously took a long time. It did not happen overnight. I mean only this move from let's say like 2 cents to about 8 cents.

[00:05:06]Only this move alone took like 3 or 4 months. So you get the point. It is going to take some time for ADA to try to get above these highs or even above these highs. But yeah, after Bitcoin decides to get above its previous all-time highs, which is most likely going to take some time, that's when Bitcoin dominance is expected to go down and that's when I'm expecting ADA to start going up again. Let's also talk about the Ethereum chart for a second.

[00:05:31]Ethereum is also getting rejected by the B market support band. And I warned you a couple of days ago that we closed below the moving average on the RSA. And by the way, we did that again yesterday, I believe. So, we closed multiple weeks below it, which is telling me that Ethereum is going to get rejected, which is going to lead to Ethereum getting another low. And I'm expecting that low to put us at $1,200 to complete a third drop of the cycle.

[00:05:54]If you don't know my theory, I believe that in this bare market, we're going to get four drops because in the previous bond market, Bitcoin had four significant moves to the upside. So, this was 1 2 3 four. And yeah, right now we only had two drops, which is telling me that the next drop is probably going to happen soon. And the next drop, according to what happened so far, can't even put us at $40,000 only because this low was, I believe, at $80,000 and the next low was at $60,000.

[00:06:21]And the reason why this is important is because in the previous bond market, we had a similar setup. This low was 25K, this was 50K, and this was 75K. And we even found support at $100,000 when we tried going down right here. And when we broke below that support level, that's what told me that maybe the bare market was over. So I think it's pretty much the exact same pattern, but it's still a much bigger ABC either way. So this was the Awave. This is the Bwave right now.

[00:06:46]We got to the 0.382 resistance level, which happened to be at $79,000, which also happened to be where the B market support band is. And that's pretty much all we need for a Bwave. This looks like a very clear ABC setup. So, the price can start going down right now. And it's probably going to do that. Maybe it's going to take another 4 weeks because I mean, the price action is very boring.

[00:07:06]But if it does not take that long, I I'm hoping for Bitcoin to break down in the next couple of days or even weeks. But of course, I've been saying the exact same thing for quite a long time. And unfortunately, these moves take some time to play out. But at the end of the day, I not really count on Bitcoin not going down just because I would like to see Bitcoin get to the oversold territory on the monthly RSI. I think you already know my theory about that.

[00:07:30]Yeah. I mean, let's say you were around for the previous bare market and let's say you waited a couple of months or even years after we topped right there.

[00:07:38]If you waited one year after the top, which was in August of 2021, let's see where ADA was during that time. It was, let's say, around these highs, which happened to be exactly where the third wave three downside was.

[00:07:50]And back then, the price was at like 57.

[00:07:52]So, if you waited for longer than a year, maybe like a year and a half from that all-time high, it would have been a good investment because obviously these were bare market lows or at least it was very close to being the bare market lows. ADA pretty much topped in this cycle back in December of 2024. So waiting one year after December of 2024 would have put you pretty much in this area over here and waiting a year and a half after December of 2024 would put you in the middle of 2026 which is going to be let's say in June of 26 or maybe even later. So yeah, it's the exact same story every single cycle. But of course it's not going to look the exact same way as it did for example back there.

[00:08:29]But the setup is going to play out in a similar fashion in my opinion just because the bare market looked very similar every single time. But you get the point. Honestly, I know these videos are very, very boring and I know there's not much to talk about, but I mean, please remember that every single time ADA went down, even here, I mean, in the long term, it did get a move to the upside. Either way, of course, I'm not expecting a move to the upside right now, but you get the idea. Even when it looks like ADA is dead, like it did for example back there or in the previous bare market, it still manages to start a move to the upside either way. So, I think a move is going to happen, but just not right now. Just a reminder that on the S&P 500 chart even though we got a new alltime highs on the RSI on the monthly we have some bearish divergence exactly like what we had back there in that area and then after we got that bearish divergence which happened to be exactly in let's say 2017 that's when the price started going down again and that's when we went down quite a lot and during that time that's also when Bitcoin found the bottom that's exactly what happened back in this area we got bearish divergence and then later on in the previous bare market we went down quite a that. So, yeah, the weekly or not the weekly, but the monthly wick is about to close in 2 days and 11 hours, if the RSI closes below the moving average, or even if it closes above it, I think that next month is going to be very bad and it's going to give us a drop. And until the end of October, we might even be back at like $5,500 or maybe even $5,000. And that's going to be a bare market for the S&P 500 and for the Bitcoin chart as well. And then later in the year, we can finally start a move like this. And then obviously we're going to have to go down again and then start a much much bigger move later on. That's what we do every single cycle. We kind of need to be in a bare market if we want the next b market to be good. What people do not seem to understand is that Bitcoin cannot go up forever. It has to get a bare market at some point. And right now we're getting one. We got one every single cycle so far. This is nothing out of the ordinary, but I am aware of the fact that it's very boring. But that's pretty much all I have. I hope you enjoyed. If you did, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates. Like, subscribe, and I will see you in the next