Oil Prices Are Higher & Stocks Don't Care

[00:00:01]Today's market call is presented by NASDAQ 100 index options positioned for what's next. Trade NDX and Faxet financial data and analytics powered by tomorrow.

[00:00:19]>> I'm taking a beat. See what I did there?

[00:00:21]>> Don't do You know what? Uh and we're going to we're going to give a little behind the uh curtain sort of stuff after you. Well, usually I come in, you know, I I you hear my voice, but you don't see my face.

[00:00:31]>> Correct.

[00:00:32]>> And then this morning we had a conversation, so I took a beat. By the way, it's 11:02 a.m. now on the East Coast. Makes it 8:02 out there in California and places west. That's Dan Nathan. I'm Swizz. Just a few minutes.

[00:00:44]Uh we have Bruce Keon. Some of his work that he did.

[00:00:49]It's not Bruce Keon. Bruce Konson was a pitcher, Dan, as you know. Um talking about, of course, the great Kevin Dav.

[00:00:56]I'm just getting in your head because >> you are getting in my head.

[00:00:59]>> It's easy to do.

[00:00:59]>> We have some great work from Kevin.

[00:01:01]>> We do.

[00:01:01]>> Yeah. Of NASDAQ.

[00:01:04]>> Yeah.

[00:01:05]>> Focuses on the NDX, which is the NASDAQ 100.

[00:01:09]>> Yeah. No, we we have some great, you know, as we get into earning season. I think a lot of Kevin's stuff is going to be very, very helpful to us as the options market is considering um some of the big names uh in the NASDAQ 100. So, we're going to hit hit that. just to just listen just so people know. I mean, there was a bit of an inside joke that was going on there. Um, you know, after how many years of doing market call? I I'm not sure.

[00:01:30]>> I think we're approaching six.

[00:01:32]>> I don't know why. Definitely.

[00:01:34]>> I finally said to you, do you know that after they have the intro thing where you come in pretty hot? I can only hear when you're getting to, you know, I missed like a half a second or so. So, that's why Guy was doing that. Guy is somebody who does not like to be produced. Amanda, who's doing what? guy >> producing and she's doing great.

[00:01:53]>> And she's doing great. She knows from when she used to work on the CNBC's Fast Money that you want to give Guyadami a note, he's going to do the exact opposite. Is that fair?

[00:02:02]>> So, what you should tell me is give me a note of that, you know, and and do the mind game. Like, >> yeah, >> then maybe if I do the opposite, it'll be what you want me to do. But I'm also sort of in tune with that so I get what's going on. Amanda just put in our chat the line that you've probably used a thousand times as it relates to your uh CNBC uh collaboration. It's producers will produce.

[00:02:24]>> Producers like to prod I mean that's what they do. It's it's in the name.

[00:02:27]>> That's what they're there to do.

[00:02:28]>> So we're here. We're looking at an we're looking at an S&P 500 that is what Dan.

[00:02:32]It's flat on the day.

[00:02:34]>> Yeah.

[00:02:34]>> Um now the indication coming into today was you know maybe down 25 or 30 handles. It obviously worked that off.

[00:02:41]Uh crude oil seems to be what Dan >> partying.

[00:02:45]>> Partying. Yes. And we've discussed that.

[00:02:47]And you know, we'll look at our earnings calendar because here we are now on Wednesday. And since Amanda does great work, let's put up that earnings calendar. We'll come back to the crude oil in a second. So we have an X through Monday because Monday's gone. As Leonard Skard said, Tuesday's gone with the win for you Skynard fans out there. By the way, Metallica, Dan's one of his favorite bands.

[00:03:09]>> Not my favorite band. put an album out I think in 1997 if I'm not mistaken where they covered certain songs. One of them was uh Tuesday's Gone.

[00:03:20]>> Oh yeah, I do.

[00:03:21]>> You don't care about this.

[00:03:23]>> No, you don't. So today we have the GooG. We already heard from AT&T. They had the CEO on Squawk and Friends this morning. I think Texan could be interesting. Obviously, I'm going past Tesla, but let's talk about the GooG because I think we've talked about it to death, but here we are in the, you know, within a couple hours of earnings report. Any thoughts somewhat different than what we've talked about? Because I think my feelings are I think you want to try to be the play this from the long side. Yeah, I I listen this is one of those ones where it's kind of like we always focus on some of the early names in the cycle as far as earnings are concerned and how that might set the sort of stage um you know for the some of the other competitors. I I kind of feel like Google is really different than what's going on at Microsoft or Amazon um or Meta and I feel like that investors this is the one right despite the fact that the stock has obviously sold off from just above 400 to you know around 350 or something like right here.

[00:04:18]It seems like, you know, that's something in line with the way the NASDAQ has sold off or many of its peers, but it's shown a little relative strength. You know, I I I think this is one guy where I'm not sure you have to play like if you like are looking for an opportunity to get back in, let's say, some of the the hyperscalers, I know that they uh generally have lost their luster and really kind of flowed through to the chip space and the memory space.

[00:04:42]Um, but then when I look at just some of the results that we saw like from Super Micro and that's a weird company. I know we've talked about it um for a while, you almost say that the sentiment is not great heading into a lot of these reports, right? Because they've all kind of the fever's broken to some degree.

[00:04:57]And if I were to choose some to play for the long side, I actually don't want to play like a Microsoft, I'd much rather play a Google. I think they have a lot more leverage to pull. And I think a lot of the disruption that's going on right now, at least in SAS and enterprise software, it really squarely is in in in Microsoft's sort of ballpark, if you will. And that's not a great place to be right now in my >> right now. It's not no question about it. And we'll talk about Mr. Softy over the next week or so, I'm sure. But, you know, listen, you could also say, you know what, guy, why let the chart be your guide in terms of Google and you know, you're in this pennant formation.

[00:05:31]The ranges continue to get smaller and smaller, which makes sense. you know where the 200 day moving average is. You know where that uptrend line is. Let it break out one way or another before you make a decision. I think that's fair as well. I think with a lot of these names, I think you would agree. It's absolutely a coin flip at this point. There's no really rhyme or reason. For some reason, I just got a better feeling about Google going to earnings. I'm not sure why, but we'll see. I think their search business will continue to sort of impress people.

[00:06:00]And this is just me, but I think Netflix woes could be YouTube's gains. So maybe you'll see something on that front as well.

[00:06:07]>> Yeah, that makes some sense. I mean, you know, I mean, you have, you know, Google down 15% um, you know, from those recent all-time highs. If you want to go back to late April, you saw that big gap right at the level in which it is right now. That was the earnings gap. It kept on going for a bit, but it didn't take long for that sort of retracement. So, from a technical perspective, you know, does it look a bit oversold? Sure. Um, does it have some support from that uptrend from, you know, the April or late March lows? Sure. Um, it just might be one of those things where you got to get this thing banging back up towards that downtrend, right? And you better hope that it kind of holds that uptrend or the next level is kind of that 200 day moving average, which is 323. You've been making the argument that there is some valuation support relative um to some of its peers. But one of the things that kind of sticks out guy to me is that you know this this competition it seems like almost and you saw the deal today maybe they can pull it up. So AMD is investing in Anthropic. Anthropic now is basically going to turn around and and buy they said tens of billions of dollars of AMD chips. Everybody wants to diversify away from Nvidia and that's part of the Google story right with TPUs. And so when you think about this, it just goes back to the fat guy, and I can't remember who said this to us. Oh, Jim Cheno said this to us on the podcast last week. Why should any of these companies that are basically customers of Nvidia have higher multiples, traded higher multiples than what Nvidia does.

[00:07:33]Now, Nvidia is being priced for losing pricing power and decelerating, you know, earnings and sales growth. Like that's just a fact, you know, and AMD on the flip side is not. So AMD has caught a little bit of that Nvidia magic from a couple years ago, but the more I hear about these deals, man, you know, like AMD is investing in Anthropic and they're getting orders from Anthropic.

[00:07:55]Okay, look at go back um to late last year. I think it was in October where Open AAI and AMD did that huge deal.

[00:08:03]Okay, and I think where's that gap if you go back and look at it? Yeah. All the way back there in the See that like the stock was trading at 175 had that huge gap. And you ready for this? AMD almost gave away half the shop. you remember they gave them a bunch of warrants and everything like that. So back then they had to give away part of their business, right? And and so I just think it's kind of interesting. It's a really interesting book ad in my opinion.

[00:08:23]>> Yeah. Listen, I'm with you. By the since I brought up Netflix, we might as well man had the chart and throw that chart up again because what we had talked about and just full disclosure, Dan has really done a great job with this one.

[00:08:34]I've been dead wrong. But what we thought could happen in retrospect was we trade down to the prior highs. The prior all-time high was about 68 bucks if you go back to I think the fall of 2021. So Amanda's got to make this a longer term chart and you'll see. So that horizontal line which she will effort in a second. Yeah. So that's basically it. And we got down to it and bouncing. I know we overshot a little bit but just you know as they like to say close enough for government work. So this could be the level we bounce from.

[00:09:06]It it makes a little bit of sense and maybe although still broken, you get a bounce back up to the 200 day moving average, which in time decay is probably going to come in in the high 80s, low 90s.

[00:09:16]>> You know, it's interesting. Close enough for government work. It's something that your dad used to say. It's also something that my dad used to say. So, I wonder if it's something that a lot of dads who are born, let's say, in the 40s, um, used to say. I don't know. Um, >> well, I I I was born in the 60s and I just >> Yeah, I guess I guess I guess well, you're quoting your dad. Um, I guess the micros, excuse me, I guess the Netflix thing is important from the standpoint of like setting the tone, right, for other names as it relates to how investors are going to react to their earnings and their guidance. And maybe that's one of the things again why you sit on your hands a little bit with Google. I'm in your camp, I'd like if a gun to my head, I'd much rather buy it than sell it, but I'm not sure I have to do anything um in front of it. Um, I know this sounds redundant. I swear we're going to get away from tech, but look at software today. Okay, so look at the IGV and it's like I'm looking at the SMH up 1.1% and I'm looking at the IGV down 2.4%. It just seems like this they're two sides of the same coin, meaning like, you know, like one goes up, the other goes down. It's just absolutely impossible to see them both go in the same direction.

[00:10:26]It's literally like I've never seen anything like this. And the the way investors guy are getting turned around, you know what I mean? And I got to think traders are just getting really chopped up here.

[00:10:37]>> Yeah. And a lot of it is and you're so right. And it comes on the heels of, you know, we have a question about service now, which sucks today. Oracle continues to suck. So obviously these are all components of that. And you're right, you know, it it is on software on semi days software gets bashed on on software days, you know, or vice versa. and and that's what we're seeing. Now, there was one day recently where they both went up, but that's a bit of an anomaly.

[00:11:04]>> Throw up Oracle real quick because I do think you're getting the levels which could be interesting. Go longer term and you'll see we just traded down to the levels that we saw in the spring of last year effectively. So, that horizontal line, I mean, that theoretically, Dan, if you're looking for a line in the sand, >> that should be your line in the sand.

[00:11:23]>> Yeah. and and Carter I think is in your camp from purely a technical perspective and again you know this is one of the stories though if if you think about the benefit of the doubt that is given to so many other companies in the space or has been I just think if you look at some of the neo clouds if you look at like a corewave um investors are kind of making their minds up what they think about the unit economics of these businesses and if you're a Johnny come lately and if you have to finance with debt I think that's one of those sorts of situations that has not played out particular ly well or at least in investors um eyes.

[00:11:56]You know, I I just want to and before we get to some of Kevin David stuff, I think it's worth noting that Oracle does not report um I just want to do this. I think it's until September, guy. And this is one though that should trade off of Yeah, it's September 9th. And I just want to give you a sense of kind of what the options market is pricing between now and then. I think you're going to be somewhat surprised, but it's also going to speak a little bit to the sort of risk. So, this is September expiration.

[00:12:21]I'm looking at the at the money straddle, right? So that is uh September Oh, I went to the wrong expiration. Give me a second. Um September 18th uh 2026.

[00:12:33]So that 18th is the third Friday of that month. If I were to look at the stock trading at 126. I'm just going to go to the 125 straddle. You're looking at nearly 30 bucks. Okay? So you could look at that on a $126 stock. Let's call it high teens. let's just round it, you know, 20% between now and then, you know, >> okay, like that gets you down to maybe a h 100red bucks. It gets you up to, you know, 150ish or something like that. I mean, that's the implied range. And I I would almost make the argument that maybe that seems just like I don't know, it's trading right at the midpoint of that. Maybe that's a little too light as we think about what some of the results are going to be from some of their major competitors over the next couple months.

[00:13:12]>> No, I think look, I think that's fair.

[00:13:13]And obviously there's a lot of time on the clock going into that. the entire the the remainder of July and over the entire month of August and then couple weeks in September. So your point is well taken there. You know Doug Cass just emailed us by the way and Doug has been short Netflix. I want to point that out and he's been right and in his note he says they're remaining short of Netflix and for the reasons that we've talked about. I mean the fact that they're being as inquisitive as they're have at least it's been out there in the press or they've talked about suggests that the growth the growth portion of their lifeline is sort of in the rearview mirror and that's obviously been true if you go back to last summer when they actually when the news came out that you know there was a potential for this Paramount um deal that Paramount Watchface Warner Brothers >> Warner Brothers deal to happen and Netflix was in the midst of it. So, as Tom Rogers pointed out back in the June quarter last year, he was getting a little scared and he was spot on. So, Doug has been right. I just pointed out that level as that just that a level to sort of trade off it. But look, being short this stock has been the right way to be.

[00:14:18]>> You know, one thing was interesting. I was looking at this the other day. You saw that some judge there's uh you know um a handful of states, maybe it was like 10, 11 states were um you know uh requesting a review of that deal before it closes. That's the Paramount Warner deal. And we know that again as you just mentioned that Netflix had made that initial bid and then was going back and forth, back and forth. Ted Sarandos, the co-CEO of Netflix, I'm going to say it was like, you know, um a couple months ago um went to the White House. He came out of the White House. He pulled his bid for uh Warner Brothers, which I think was uh go to the one-year um chart, please, and you'll see, you know, >> that's when he got the bounce.

[00:14:56]>> Yeah. Stock bounce there. But I don't know if you saw this guy right as this is coming up as it relates to the Warner and the Paramount push back. Again, this is one judge and it's a it's a two-eek review or something like that. Ted Sarandos was supposedly in Trump's box at the World Cup final talking to Jared Kushner. I mean like which I think is pretty interesting. I don't know if people have been talking about that. I just kind of read that in one of the articles. There's also a situation where there's a ticking clause. Okay. So, if this deal, the Warner Paramount deal, is not closed, I think by September 30th, every week they pay like 25 cents more.

[00:15:29]This is a company that a lot of folks think they overpaid massively for. So, it's just a couple things going on there. Maybe this thing is not done. I don't know.

[00:15:37]>> You don't think they were talking about like the football and and Mbappe and those people?

[00:15:42]>> They probably were. Let's go back to Oracle for one sec, guys.

[00:15:45]>> I can just throw an Mbappe out there.

[00:15:47]>> August 21st, it's the third week in August. Um, that would be the regular way expiration. If you were looking at the stock here, let's call it 126. The 126 call >> in August is 10 bucks. Okay, so at the money 10 bucks. Okay, you can do the math on that. Your break even is at 136.

[00:16:07]I know that sounds like from a dollar standpoint 10 bucks like a lot, but if you thought this stock was going to bounce and it's going to kind of get back to that, let's call it that 175 level or something. It's kind of where it broke down. um you know going back a month ago or something like that. That's probably not a bad way to play it.

[00:16:25]You're basically risking 10 bucks to the downside. Now the problem is obviously it's decaying. A B you got to get it right by the certain uh you know you know day on the calendar that sort of thing. But that's one way to think about it with defined risk. You could also look to sell an out of the money call and make a call spread.

[00:16:42]>> I think that's an interesting way to play it. So it's like what is that about 8% of the stock price give or take and you it doesn't get you through earnings obviously right but you know you get yourself about a month or so to play and what I have said and look it has not come to fruition but I still think >> there's a decent chance when I say decent you know one in4 chance that at some point you're going to hear something out of this administration about Oracle the company and the stock and if in fact that were to happen we have precedent for it you've seen what's happened with other companies. Now, I don't know anything. I'm not suggesting I do, but you also know the relationship that Larry Ellison has with the administration. So, it's not as far-fetched as it sounds.

[00:17:24]>> Yeah. One thing I just mentioned about the potential for this to, you know, to bounce. We were at 250. This is going back to, you know, early June and here we are. We've been cut in half. I mean, that is an astounding move in such a short period of time in a month and a half. And, you know, look at a core for a second. Okay. So, so this is a company that obviously has had a rough, you know, um, you know, last, you know, four or five months or so. Um, look at it's already rallied 20% off those lows, right? So, you know, that and those lows are going back to Friday morning, that sort of thing. So, the lack of bounce that you've had in Oracle when you think about some of the names that are attached to it is pretty astounding. And pull up Nebus. This is uh comes out what guy? Mbis I think comes out that way. I mean, this talk about as a neo cloud. I mean, >> I didn't know. That's why I hesitated because I thought >> has been all over the place, man. And look at the bounce that that just had.

[00:18:16]So, for some reason, Oracle is not in the guise of traders right now, meaning like they're not playing it for a bounce the way they are playing these, but it definitely is. Every pop gets sold as it relates to Oracle from >> listen, there are people writing about the potential for there to be a bankruptcy here in Oracle if the things continue to deteriorate on the balance sheet front. And again, I think it's low probability, but it's not zero probability. And I think that's out there. And I don't I got to tell you something.

[00:18:43]I don't know what happens to the broader market if in fact something like that would would transpire. But man, oh man, that's something we talk about for a while. And this nebates move, by the way, as Christina Parts pointed out on her Twitter account, this is sort of old news being rehashed. And it's amazing how many times stocks in the market can rally on the same piece of news over and over again.

[00:19:03]>> Yeah. You know, one thing as we've been talking, you know, I think when we started, um, it was kind of like, you know, unchanged. Look at the day chart there. Um, and what's interesting to me about that is that every piece of news that we talk about as it relates to anthropic or open AI or any of the other hyperscalers, um, you know, AMD like and and then we go look at AMD. I mean AMD has acted very well on a relative basis to I mean look at that thing. I mean that thing that consolidation there and everything like that. It it's interesting though that a uh that Nvidia doesn't act worse and I mean that it just seems like every piece of news that comes out of this space is not good for Nvidia and the stock trades really well. Maybe it's a multi thing. I you know I you know I don't know. I mean it's just kind of odd to me.

[00:19:52]>> Yeah. Nor do I you know and Jim Kramer obviously has been talking about it. I mean it it has been hanging around like I thought it was public.

[00:20:03]>> I'm just asking. Geez, >> you know the answer. You know the answer.

[00:20:06]>> I don't know such >> but again you know I remember I remember saying this at the time. Did I lose you?

[00:20:12]>> Was going back to late last year.

[00:20:15]>> Think I lost you.

[00:20:16]>> Yeah we lost you. I lost you. But we're all back baby. So I asked you does Jim like the name?

[00:20:21]>> Yes he does. And that's why I hesitated because I think that's rhetorical and hopefully I'm still here. But it's amazing and we actually addressed this that it traded down to the 200 day moving average in Nvidia and like a boss it bounced right off it. So we've seen it before. So I you know what I said was fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me type of thing. So here we are. Let's take a quick look at Texan because I do think I just lost Dan if I'm not mistaken. But >> I'm back.

[00:20:48]>> You're back. So, Texas Instruments reports today, monster gap on the downside, big valuation. Whether it's deserved or not remains to be seen. I'm going to go out on a little bit of a limb here, Dan, if I may. There's a chance you have a monster island reversal to the downside. And if you look right in the middle of the little island, you see what was a bit of an island reversal. So, you have this entire sort of move and then you have that one sort of line sticking up at an all-time high. There's a chance that this thing sort of I think has a gap to the downside. And I don't know if I'm still here or not. Am I still?

[00:21:26]>> Yeah, you are.

[00:21:27]>> Yeah. You know, so this is a really interesting one. You and I talked about it going back to, you know, three months ago when they reported that last quarter. I mean AI is such a small part of their business and I think they use the term like a lot on their last call, you know, and the fact that the stock has been able to kind of hold um these sorts of gains, you know, going back to that last quarter. The one thing I'll say is it should scare the out of people when you think about that move in IBM that we saw last week because was that was that worth a quarter of its market cap, guy? like the the quarter that they put up and the commentary that they gave and it has not bounced. I mean, >> you know, so I I'd be a bit concerned.

[00:22:07]Um, >> it has not bounced. And again, what is amazing, we continue to bring this up and Doug Cass again to bring Doug up, writes about this over and over again.

[00:22:16]It's about market structure now. And the the moves that we're seeing, the day-to-day moves we're seeing in individual stocks are staggering. For some reason that I I still don't fully understand. It's not manifesting itself in the VIX, but it's clearly happening in individual names. If we could put up yields real quick because why not? I hammer them every freaking day. I think 10 years just got up to about 464 or so, which is highest level we've seen, I want to say, since the spring. You know, my view on this thing. I've been pretty outspoken. I think the TLT breaks down.

[00:22:50]I think yields are going higher. I think yields are going higher for the wrong reasons. And this is not a market or an economy that is is situated or set up for this to happen. So you tell me what happens on the back of it. And Dan, believe it or not, Dan sent me an article about dollar yen and I actually put a smile on my face last night.

[00:23:09]>> I put it see if these guys can find it.

[00:23:11]I feel bad. I should have put it in our show notes here um a little bit. But on the macro stuff, guy, I mean your point is that the 10-year is going back to those highs, you know, that we s about two months ago. 47. maybe give us a fiveyear um and you know for all intents and purposes when you think about um yeah that's been a really nice you know sort of base. So if you get through this kind of 47 level then you got the high you know late I guess that was late 24ish or something like that that gives you maybe 475 and then you have to go back to kind of 23 late 23 it gets you to 5% that sort of thing. So if you have the 10-year on its way, let's say to 5%.

[00:23:50]And you have crude oil that is stuck in and around 90 bucks or something like that. You have dollar yen hitting levels that it has not been in 40 some years or something like that. What are >> years?

[00:24:01]>> Yeah. Give me like what are some of the implications here? Because it hasn't happened yet, you know, like I you know, is it the unwind of a carry trade? Like what what what is what is in the offing?

[00:24:10]>> It's some negative feedback loop which is almost inevitable at this point. It's amazing to me how quiet the Bank of Japan has been with the weakening yen and obviously a weakening bond market.

[00:24:19]So, I think they're probably putting their heads together and say, "Okay, what do we want to address? We want to address our bond market, which is basically imploding right before our eyes, or we want to protect our currency, which is you just said at a 40-year low against United States dollar." They got to pick one. And by picking one, they sort of screw up the other one. And there's no easy problem is there's no right answer here. and whatever they do is going to have ramifications. And as I've said, Japan is the largest um international holder of our treasury treasuries.

[00:24:52]There is going to be a situation where I think they start and it's probably happening right before our eyes. But you know, they start to sort of dump treasuries and start to try to protect either their bond market or their currency market. Now, if there is a silver lining in this, you got to believe the Treasury, our Treasury knows exactly what's going on as well. So, behind closed doors, I got to believe there conversations going on in terms of how we can be of assistance because it's not in our best interest for this thing to blow up. So, you talk about a lot of moving parts. If you want to go down a rabbit hole, folks, read about, again, as Dan just said, the yen carry trade, the the Japanese bond market, the weakening currency, how many treasuries they own, all that thing. And then you come to your own conclusions after sort of spending a half hour or so.

[00:25:40]>> Yeah. No, I mean, it's something that you've been uh making us all aware of for a while. It feels like one of those sorts of things where a couple things can happen in and so, you know, and and all at once you have a sort of meltdown one way or another. So, um, I want to hit some stuff. Our good friend Kevin Davitt, who is the head of content, um, for NASDAQ 100 at NASDAQ, he sent us some charts here, and I I I think there's some really good stuff here because, you know, you don't have to be, you know, a ball market genius to take some of the uh, takeaways. I mean, listen, I I've been, you know, in the options market for a very long time, and I'm far from a genius, but um, I I think this data right here is really interesting. So he's looking at the NDX component returns versus the one month at the money implied volatility. That is the price of options. So he's looking at Micron here. Micron remains one of the highest volatility stocks in the NASDAQ 100 highlighting where the options market expects the biggest moves heading into earnings. Now we know that we're not going to get mic micron earnings for a bit. But I think it's instructive guy because if you think about all these names that we have down here um these are hyperscaler names. Well, high bandwidth memory is something that needs to be um attached along with GPUs that come from Nvidia or others, right, to kind of, you know, go into the servers that train the models that go into the data centers, that sort of thing. Um, you know, it doesn't surprise me that Micron is um, you know, higher than a lot of its peers, but it does surprise me the magnitude guy in which it is.

[00:27:04]Yeah, look, it's tough to sort of ascertain what's going on here, but the headline is the implied volatility for two names specifically, AMD and Micron at the money, one-mon implied volatility. I mean, this is something you don't see all that often, and it speaks to what we've been talking about now for the last couple months, the day-to-day 8% 8 to 10% moves both up and down in names like that. The other sort of sort of log jammed in the middle, which makes sense. Then you look at the you know the returns if you go to go against the bottom axis and then try to figure out okay where you have to it's that whole thing you used to do a show risk less make more. Yeah.

[00:27:44]>> Well this is a situation where you're risking more to potentially make more because you are way out there on the risk curve if you just look at this through that lens. Dan. Yeah, and I think that the takeaway here is that from a qualitative standpoint is what we already know is that Micron has, you know, picked up the baton. It's one of the very few, it's a scarcity situation, right? If you think about it, it's one of the very few ways to play this in the US markets. But once we now have, you know, SKHEX, which did that huge listing a couple weeks ago, about 27 billion here on the um, you know, in our markets, you have to, it was on the NASDAQ actually, and you say to yourself, okay, well, what happens?

[00:28:23]because Samsung quickly said that they want to do a listing here. Now all of a sudden investors have different ways to express this view. Um you know I I said to myself this is a really dangerous situation if you're buying premium in Micros uh micron despite the outsiz sort of return. Um so again pull up the micron chart for a second because this went to exactly where you thought it would retrace to and that was about $800. That was also that breakout in late May which was you know on the earnings. And if you think like when I say that breakout in late May, do you remember the breakout in late April? I mean like that's what's truly astounding. I mean this stock broke out in April, kept on going into the print.

[00:29:02]You would have said well it and I did say this, it's probably discounting a whole heck of a lot of the good news the quarter and the guidance that they're going to give and then it had that gap checked back kept on going. That move from 1250 down to 800 in such a short period of time. It's kind of the again the other side of the coin when it was going up a little bit but it bounced right where it was supposed to bounce.

[00:29:23]>> Yeah. And we listen again I get a lot wrong. This is one we actually did get right. We talked about about the potential for a gap filled potential to trade down to the prior all-time high which is about somewhere between 800 and 805. I don't have it exactly in front of me but that's pretty much what it did about four I think trading days ago. And it stopped there and bounced that day and it's been bouncing ever since. So, we'll see how long this bounce uh lasts.

[00:29:48]Now, this is where it gets interesting.

[00:29:50]Do you see a 50% retracement from this 800 lowish prior all-time high? Let's just call it 1250. You can do the math.

[00:29:58]That's $2,000 or so. So, what's half that? What's a 50% retracement? Let's call it just th just either side of a,000 bucks a little north. Let's call it $1,100. That's your bounce. So, what happens if and when it gets there? It's a logical place. I think Dan to then take profits again if you think about it. So that's how my mind is working.

[00:30:19]>> Yeah. And and we're gonna have some time, you know, with some of their biggest customers and the reports that they're having and some of their peers to kind of get a better sense of kind of, you know, what is discounted in this stock in particular, right? um as you think about just kind of um you know where this high bandwidth memory um what is the tail of demand what is the RPOS and all the BS that we keep hearing about the long-term agreements or whatever let's just see um if that backlog changes and if it doesn't go up meaningfully what do investors what have they already discounted all right let let's finish this last one because I think this is interesting so Kevin brought us obviously the ind individual components let's look at the uh NASDAQ the NDX implied volatility and the term structure and the term structure really means what like volatility looks as if you're going out on experies. You can see that um with uh the chart here. So we have on the left hand we have implied volatility the price of options and then we have the expectations for ball levels going out one year two years that sort of thing. So the NASDAQ 100 options are pricing a meaningful jump in volatility ahead of next week's mega cap tech earnings. That's not a huge surprise.

[00:31:24]you will see that right because the cost to protect those names if you're using NDX options which I think a lot of institutions a lot of folks do and I think a lot of retail are coming around to this as being a different way to express views in the NASDAQ 100 the elevated July 31 implied volatility reflects expectations for larger market swings as Microsoft Apple Meta and Amazon report all of those names have at least like let's say four and a half% implied moves in either direction and you may say well that doesn't seem like that big of a deal well those are also multi trillion dollar market cap companies and if you think about the potential impact on the NDX which a lot of those names make up a disproportionate amount of the weight that's where you want to start focusing on this a little bit >> and I'll say this and maybe I should know the answers I don't but you have to wonder when I look at this what's the what's the put call skew on the back of this that has volatility at these levels my instincts suggest that the skews towards the call side of the equation so people have sort of to the extent that people even think about protection anymore. I think they've sort of thrown that out the window and are probably looking to play things for the upside as well, which also scares me. And then I look at this quickly, Dan, before we wrap it up, and I say, "All right, this is obviously telling one side of the story. The other side of the story is a volatility index, which is, you know, either side of 17." So there's there are things going on here that I think historically are creating a bit of an anomaly.

[00:32:49]>> Yep. No doubt. Um, all right. Well, we want to thank Kevin Davitt. He is the head of options content, NDX content over at NASDAQ, focused on the NDX, the NASDAQ 100. And hopefully we'll get Kevin back um on the program in the very near future. All right, just last thing before we get out of here, Google. Okay, you said you're more inclined to be long. I'm just going to ask you one question, please.

[00:33:11]>> You kind of alluded to it.

[00:33:12]>> Do you need to be there if you are a trader and you're looking at this setup?

[00:33:16]Do don't you want I want to hear what they have to say about capex? I want to hear all that sort of stuff. And I'm not trying to, you know, basically be wishy-washy. I just think at the start of earning season, I think it's important earning season. I want to get like the flavor of kind of what these guys have to say on capbacks, what they're saying about the environment, you know, um, and how you might extrapolate that to their peers because you and I are both in agreement. We think they are one of the best position hyperscalers for the vertical, you know, kind of nature of their business from GCP uh, to TPUs, right, to the Gemini models to the distribution of them. I mean they just announced a new chip that's going to be um more memor or power efficient with using Gemini and you know embedded in it. So a lot of good things going on at Alphabet. I just wonder you know how investors are going to perceive good news and whether it's good enough.

[00:34:05]>> I think to answer your question no you don't have to be there. And just to sort of build upon that there's also a very good chance that the initial move is the wrong move in this stock as well. And as you get into these penet formations, as Carter often talks about, sometimes you do get a bit of a head fake. So, I think the smart thing to do is, as Dan just said, sort of wait and see and listen to what they have to say during the conference call because the initial move could be uh a a bit of a head fake.

[00:34:34]>> All right. Well, we covered a lot of ground here, guy. We appreciate everyone being here. We're going to be back.

[00:34:39]>> Even Kevin Dav Bruce Davitt. Um, we'll see you all tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. Thanks so much for being here.