Capital gains tax changes that reduce housing supply can worsen housing affordability rather than solve it, as demonstrated by Australia's policy where Treasury estimates 35,000 fewer homes will be built over the next decade, potentially increasing intergenerational inequality instead of addressing it.
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Deep Dive
Australia’s capital gains tax changes are a warning for NZAdded:
Albanese and Chalmers ran an election campaign saying they wouldn't do this.
In the same way their Kiwi Labour colleagues claimed their capital gains tax will be limited in scope and scale.
But what does it achieve? The median cost of a Sydney house, 1.7 million. The country median almost 1 million. That's more than Kiwi prices, by the way. Try buy a house in Melbourne, good luck, Godspeed to you. The reason these changes are not going to change the game for any young Australian or young Kiwi flying the coop is simple, supply. As anyone with a townhouse in West Auckland right now well knows, the fastest way to lower prices to build more of the things, supply and demand. It is basic.
And these changes in Australia fewer homes will be built, not more.
Master Builders Australia says the number of homes built in future as a direct result will go down.
In the budget, Treasury, Chalmers' own Treasury, reckons 35,000 fewer homes will be built over the next decade. And that is not a recipe for rebalancing intergenerational inequality, if you ask me. Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, weekdays from 5:00 a.m. only on Newsstalk ZB.
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