Mayne offers a sharp reality check on the breakdown of market correlations, correctly identifying liquidity dynamics as the primary driver in this fragmented cycle. It is a necessary pivot for any trader still clinging to the outdated belief that all boats rise with the same tide.
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Correlation Is Dead: Inside the Most Divided Market I've Seen
Added:Yo yo yo. What's up friends, party people?
It's your boy Maine. We're back with another episode of the Order Book Show.
Uh, super excited for today's episode.
Obviously, we got a lot going on.
Markets have pumped almost $10,000 off of the low, which we longed, by the way, on stream, including Salana. Long long the low on Salana and Bitcoin. Who's counting, though? Uh, but up almost $10,000 on the low and the bulls are starting to creep out of their caves. Okay, I know bears are the ones who are in caves, but allow me. Okay, allow it. Bears are uh the bulls, excuse me, are creeping out of their cages and they're getting a little bullish.
They're coming out and they're saying, "Hey, is it safe to bullpost out here?"
Because you know, no one's bulling at the low. Very few people bull posting at the low. Your boy longed the low. The chat long the low, right? But not a lot of people on the timeline. There's a few. There's a few, right? But not a lot of people on the timeline getting bullish. They wait, right? They wait. This is This is K Twitter brand building 101. You don't bullpost at the bottom. You wait until you look around.
Other people bullying, bulling you, okay, it's safe. You know what I mean?
It's safe. They're they're not leaders, right? They're not leaders of the pack.
Okay, they come out when it's safe. The coast is clear. And then they go, "Okay, now I can start bulling." Other people are bulling.
The coast is clear. I'm going to come out and do a little bit of bullposting.
So, listen, I get it. the market's going up a little bit. Things are looking kind of good. And so, naturally, people go from, hey, you know, it's a little bit bullish, things are looking good to like the bottoms in. All right, bottoms in.
I'm seeing some all-time high calls.
People are getting real excited. Now, what I will say and what I have said many times is this is the best we've looked in a while, not just on Bitcoin, but on other assets as well within crypto. seeing a bit of a disorrelation in certain areas, crypto equities, right? Certain equities against each other. So, there's definitely some stuff percolating, stuff cooking. Now, I still stand by my four-year cycle meme that I think we don't bottom until after the summer, but again, that could mean some more sideways and then the bottoms in or it could mean one more low. But the end of the day, people are starting to get a little horny out there. Okay, the bulls have been edging for like a year.
They're ready to bust. They're ready to bust. Um, so we're going to talk about Bitcoin. We'll go over that top down. I deleted all of my levels. We're going to do a nice fresh top down analysis on Bitcoin. Then we're going to get into some other stuff. We'll talk a little bit about what's going on in Korea, what's going on in this AI memory trade, all that crazy fun stuff. As always, my boy Cody is in the chats, multiple chats, kick, Twitter, YouTube. So, if you got some questions, um Cody is going to be taking chart requests and feel free to ask questions, too. It doesn't just have to be like, look at my random coin that's down 99%.
And then I'm going to say, "Hey, it's down 99%." Maybe see if it puts in a bullish setup. Because that's usually the same script for every one of these chart requests. But if you got a question about the market structure videos, the whiteboard series, anything at all, life advice from an old not gay married man, let your boy know. Okay, let your boy know. So, without further ado, let's get in the charts. So, uh, as I mentioned, I've got a fresh, just nice and fresh [ __ ] and span Bitcoin chart here. Okay, no levels on it. No levels on it. Okay. So, we're going to start from the high time frame and we're going to work our way down here. Um, the only level that I think is really important on the high time frames are this low to this high. This is our kind of last bull market range. Why is that relevant? Well, every single bull market has traded back into the last bull market's range. And the last bull market bottomed right.
right at the prior bull markets yearly order block and right in the OT. Okay, so markets love symmetry. The equivalent setup there, right? And this is where I've gotten a lot of my levels as you guys know is taking the low to the high, right? So that's the bare market low.
That's the bull market high. And then the yearly order block you can just mark out with a nice big line right there.
That's the top of the yearly order block. We can even label it. Let's just do that. Let's get crazy.
Let's get insane in here.
Okay, going down to the threemonth chart. I don't think there's anything on here that adds significant value.
And and and this is a good example of top- down analysis. Remember that video that I did here? top down analysis.
Okay, all these great great videos I've done for you guys. Um, top down analysis, right? That's what we're doing right now. It does not take very long. So, the yearly firmly bullish, right? We have a low and a high. We have a market structure break on the yearly. So, like the yearly, good news, it's bullish.
Okay, threemonth, I don't think there's anything worth adding. You could argue that this is your three-month range and maybe we take out the range low, but I don't really need to see that there.
Going down to the monthly. Oops.
Okay, we have that key monthly low. That's also a uh quarterly low, right? It's the quarterly swing low, key monthly low.
And that lines up really nicely with our yearly order block. And if I were to flick on these, you'll also see that the 62 lines up right where that current low is and the 70.5 lines up bang on the yearly order block. And if you want to say like, well, is that important and relevant information? Let's look at the last bare market bottom here. There's your low to your high. Okay?
And here is your yearly order block right here.
So if you now zoom in, look where the last bare market bottomed right at the 79 right into the yearly order block. So if we were to do something similar this cycle, right, what would that look like? Well, that would likely look like us bottoming somewhere in this region, right into that yearly order block. And now some people are saying this is already the low. So, if this were already the low, then the fractal that you're seeing a few people throw out is basically the low is in here. And now it's just going to be basically like a lockout rally on the way up.
I think we're more likely here or here personally. But hey, even if you bought here or here and the low ended up being 15K, I think you're pretty happy buying 25K even if there is one more low. Hence why I've said anything kind of in the 40 to 60 range and we've dipped below 60 a few times now pretty good value.
So we're still high time frame, right? The highest time frame bullish. But now on the monthly, right? We got that key low there. We're at this monthly order block here, which absolutely could be where the bottom forms. By the way, we don't have to dip down below this low. We could form a bottom in here. Okay. But again, I still think that the bottom will take time to form. Even if this is the bottom, by the way, guys, let's say this is the bottom, like this is the bottom right here.
We're here right now.
Well, guess what? Like once we got a break of weekly structure, you got a retest and you knew the bottom was in. That's here. So, we still got an opportunity. Even if you didn't long this, once we start trading up, we're going to get some sort of retest. It's not going to be a straight line. There's multiple big time retests with weekly SFPS. Okay, so there's going to be it's going to be time. There's going to be time, but we'll see. We'll see if we're there yet. We don't know. But we could be bottoming in the monthly here. But the one thing that we have to be aware of once we get down to the monthly time frame and below is there is bearish market structure here on these highest time frames. So the monthly right here is your low. There's your high. This is a lower low on the monthly right there. This is a lower high and this is now another lower low. It's a very marginal lower low, but it's a lower low nonetheless. So we are in a monthly downtrend until we get above 82.
we are in a weekly downtrend, right? Arguably until the same time, you could potentially say, hey, this is like a little internal weekly structure break. So, if we flip that, I do think that that generally looks really good.
But the same level on the weekly is the monthly level, which is this 82 level.
So, if the bottom is in this 82 level, right, is equivalent to this 22k level.
So, from the low to the 22K, right?
That's a 40% move already off the low that occurred before weekly structure shifted. There's your low, right? 40% move before you had weekly confirmation.
Well, guess what? From this low to here, it's about the same 40% move. You might be like, "Well, I can't get in 40% after the move." Not saying you have to buy a little now.
see if we go lower or once we get that weekly shift. I'm pretty confident we will get some sort of pullback. You're not going to have to buy right here, but if we get above here, it's pretty similar to this. And it's probably high odds that the low is in.
Okay.
But the weekly and the monthly are still bearish until we get above 82. Now, obviously, if you want to long the bottom, you have to do a little bit of educated guessing because you don't know the bottom's in until it's in. You don't know the top is in until it's in. It's obvious in hindsight to go, okay, well, we broke structure there and then that was it.
Oh, it's obvious here. But in that moment, when we're trading here and we start retesting, people are [ __ ] their pants, right? Ah, no. You know what? We're still in the range. They completely forget that we just broke structure and they told themselves if we break structure we're bullish. But then you psych yourself out here on the moment it ticks down. I for [ __ ] sakes did that exactly here. Remember I told everyone I said we break weekly structure the top is in. And what did I do? I refused to sell immediately because I was like ah well maybe maybe it's going to bounce and have one more leg. I got caught up in it. So it's easy to have that plan.
It's a lot harder to actually execute on that plan when the time comes, but you will have a better chance at actually following through if you have a plan.
Have clear levels where you're like, "Hey, this is weekly structure. This is my plan." That way, when it's staring you in the face, you don't fumble. You don't go, "Oh, well, look at the most immediate leg of price."
Right?
So, those high time frames are still bearish. That being said, we've talked about this a bunch, right? like the selling seems to subside a bit similar to here, right? So, at the very least, if we're not already going sideways, the selling is definitely less aggressive.
And we're definitely in a bottoming formation, I think, starting to appear here. The question is, do we get another swipe below these lows? Yes or no? It's impossible to say, but if we do, we know what we're going to do. And if we don't, we know what we're going to do.
Okay, so that's the top down high time frame analysis on Bitcoin.
My plan still remains the same. Nibbled a little spot under 60. If we go under 60 again, I'll buy more. The moment we get a weekly structure break, I'm going to assume the bottom is in and I'm going to look to start aggressively allocating going into the end of the year. Simple.
Okay.
Now, in terms of more immediate price action, where are we right now? Like let's talk about how can I get into a trade today, tomorrow, in the next couple of weeks, right? Because I'm all I'm talking high time frame [ __ ] right now that could take months.
Why do you say not gay married man?
Because if I wasn't married, you could be like, well, you might be gay. But the fact that I'm married to a woman who's real, she just doesn't use Twitter, she goes to a different social media platform, lets you know that I'm absolutely not gay. Which is very important because bears are gay. I'm not gay.
No ven diagram here.
You understand what I'm saying?
So in terms of immediate price action, we are in a new weekly down leg because we did break below right the current weekly swing low on these closes here. So to me immediately this is my swing high and this is my swing low.
So, if I'm just trading this as I have every other leg down, right? I'm going to draw my fib from the high to low and I'm going to look to sell in the premium. Now, I've said this before. I think these were high odds shorts. These were high odd shorts. Even these were this next bounce. Whether or not it makes a new low or not, I have no idea.
But these are not as high odds as these prior ones that had big weekly structure breaks here because I do think we're closer to a bottom. It doesn't mean I don't want to take a short on something like this. It just means that I'm not expecting it to go to 20K in a straight line much like we had this giga drop down here or giga drop down here. I think we're a lot closer to a bottom and my overall high time frame premise is I'm looking to accumulate spot Bitcoin.
That being said, if we got into a premium or we get some sort of sell signal, weekly SFP, didn't quite get into a premium, you're short. New leg down here. There's your swing high and swing low. We traded really nicely into the premium into this weekly bearish fair value gap. And on the lower time frames, we had a pretty clear breaker setup here, right?
Traded up back below structure break, bearish retest, selloff. So, I'm going to be doing the same thing in this most recent leg. Right, we have a leg of price here.
I'm going to look for price to trade into the premium and then I'm going to look for signs of weakness. I'm not just going to max short the moment it gets up here. I'm looking for signs of weakness at any point in time. So, if we get up into this fair value gap, even deeper above the 50%, I'll look for signs of weakness there. If we ultimately come all the way up to this breaker and order block up here, I'll look for signs of weakness there. But for now, the high time frame drawn price based on the weekly, my assumption is it's going to mitigate internal range liquidity here.
Right, we just took out external range below the prior weekly low. Now, we're going to look for a retrace back to internal fair value gap, break our order block. Okay, this is 101 stuff from the whiteboard series.
So, I'm looking for reasons, right? We do have that nice weekly sweep here, which is what we actually use to get our long on the bottom.
This sweep down here, weekly sweep, and then I mentioned if we get some sort of retest of this, right? I thought maybe we might get a retest of this and a run of these lows. That was kind of my premise for the last little bit here to the point where I actually took a short on um I think it was this SFP that was forming here.
But then I saw that we traded up and I said, "Okay, maybe it's not ready quite yet, but I'm still watching." Right? We have this high here that hasn't been run. We've taken out all of these highs.
Maybe we get something like this, right?
And then this gives us our move up to the OT. I don't know, right? Or we could literally just drift higher from here.
We could very easily just continue to drift higher from here. And then I'll be looking up there in those areas that I mentioned for any signs of weakness. If we sweep this high, I will look to short it. But ideally above the 50% is where that's most prot uh optimal. And if we get some sort of nuke down to here, depending on where it occurs from, I'd probably take a long. Like if we do this, I would probably long. Okay. If we do this, I will not long this because that to me is the lower high for a lower low.
Whereas, if we just do this, I think we're just actually forming some sort of range that can have one more leg higher still.
So, that's my thought process shortterm for Bitcoin. Okay, I gave you the high time frame plan. Super straightforward, super easy. Okay, and this is kind of my low time frame levels I'm looking at for the week.
If you have any questions about this, please let me know in the chat. But I hope this is pretty straightforward. I try and make this super super easy to understand.
Hey mean when you say sign of weakness, how can you identify it? The same way that we identify signs of strength.
Oops. So if you remember this long we took down at the lows here. Well, it wasn't just a random long. We had the weekly trade below a wick and then back above, right? We had an H12 sweep here.
We had on the hourly, right, a flip in market structure. We were in a downtrend and then bang, right? Flipped into an uptrend here on the hourly, swept out the lows again. So, this is what I mean, right? We're looking for some sort of sweep, market structure shift, just any sort of clue that in this case, the buyers are stepping in. We're looking for that in the inverse now, right?
We're looking for signs that the sellers might be stepping in. A good example of that is up here. Okay, when we had our bounce here, how did we know to get bearish up here? We shorted this move and we shorted this move. How did we know to get bearish here? Well, we were bouncing. We put in a weekly bearish SFP. You go down to the lower time frames, right on the H12. This isn't even that low of a time frame.
We broke structure after sweeping out the week. This is now a reversal, right?
Look at the result. So, we're going to be looking for the opposite stuff here, right? We're going to be looking for the opposite stuff to what we took at the lows here. I'm going to look for any sort of sweeps of high time frame swings. Going to look for any sort of market structure shifts because right now this is an uptrend.
low, high, higher low, higher high, right? It's in an uptrend. So, if we get some sort of sign of reversal, a market structure shift, that's our clue that perhaps this weekly bearish trend is looking to continue. If we don't get that, I don't short. It's that simple.
My system is very straightforward. It's very rules-based. There's clear things that we look for to get long, to get short, to do nothing.
I don't try and I'm I'm not complicated.
I don't use a bunch of um indicators or weird [ __ ] [ __ ] that I don't show you guys on stream. The whiteboard series is exactly how I trade. The thousand plus videos I have on YouTube is exactly how I trade. You can even go look at my videos from back in like 2018 and you can see how I've evolved my trading over the last seven to eight years. It was still price action back then, but I do things a little bit differently now. I'm much more of a swing trader now than I was back then. And things have changed all the time, but it's been pretty consistently price action. And I've shared it all openly for years and years and years.
All right. Any questions on Bitcoin here?
A lot of married men could be gay, so I don't believe you. That's true. That's why I said I'm not only am I gay, I'm not only am I married, I'm also not gay.
Like I made sure to specify both of those things, but they're not mutually exclusive. You're right.
Hey man, do you think crypto respects technicals more than stocks? That's all it can really rely on, or do you think it's all the same? Um I think listen technical analysis really is a summation of the participants of the market expressing their view on the chart. So what I mean by that is like if enough people think Bitcoin is bullish and they buy it and there's more buyers than sellers, it's going to go up. If enough people think it's bearish and there's more sellers than buyers, it will go down. That's true for stocks as well. It doesn't matter how great the fundamentals are. If there's more sellers than buyers, goes down. If there's more buyers than sellers, it goes up. Now, a lot of crypto do not have underlying fundamentals. Like, you can look at hype and you can start making, you know, um, uh, a trade idea hypothes hypothesization hypothesis. Let's just keep it short.
Let's not try and [ __ ] spaz out on stream here. Um, you can make a a a trade idea based on underlying fundamentals. This is a company. It has revenues.
What's the value of the token? What are the tokconomics? How much money are they making? How much money are they keeping?
All that stuff. And then you can say, okay, is this undervalued or overvalued based on the fundamentals alone? But the fundamentals can be crazy bullish and the chart can still go down, right? If there's more sellers than buyers. So I think obviously a lot of crypto there are no underlying fundamentals. So the reason TA works so well is because if enough people think this trend line is support and they buy there it can turn it into support. So really all you're seeing when you do TA like this is I'm trying to find the most optimal areas where I think traders are going to be engaging with price and then I try and get into a trade at those areas. If I think a lot of people are going to be bullish on Bitcoin, you know, um up here because it's gone up a bunch and then where are they going to put their stop?
I don't know, here or here. And I see a reason to maybe short here, right?
Or up here after they run their stops.
Whatever it is, that's just how I'm formulating my trade idea. You're just looking for areas where you think other people are going to be interacting with the market.
So, yes, I think they work it works well on crypto, but I don't think um I don't think it's necessarily better than it works on equities. I think I've shown you can use TA on gold, on silver, on stocks, on all sorts of stuff. Um because at the end of the day, there's only the people, machines, the algos, there's only the stuff in the market.
There's buying and selling going on. and TA can kind of help you, you know, identify those areas where that might be occurring, where stops might be resting, right? You can oftentimes look at areas that I call, you know, like a liquidity sweep and on the order flow chart and the heat map, like you'll see stops there, you'll see orders there, you'll see a liquidation occur. Um, but that's human psychology, right? If I see price do this and it starts going up, the average trader is going to put their stop down there and be like, "Okay, I'm long in this. Send it." And then what happens? It takes them out and then it goes. Right? Again, this is something I talk about, I believe, mostly in episode three of the whiteboard series is liquidity.
Um, I won't claim to be an expert on trading stocks. Um, I'm much more a crypto kind of commodities trader. I have a lot of experience trading gold and silver, some FX pairs. Um, I don't trade a ton of stocks. My stock trading is very basic. I'm not doing like crazy complex option stuff. Um, you know, I'll buy stuff in my portfolio. High time frame charts only. I find TA works pretty well.
Haven't retested the H12 MSB line yet, but I but if we don't push too high before coming back, retest would make sense. Agreed.
Um, okay. Let's uh move on to some of the other charts here. ETH, right?
one of the more talked about charts in crypto and why we covered this in depth in the last stream. We're potentially seeing a sign of reversal. So, we've now had a clear weekly close outside of this downtrend line. So, single line analysis still hasn't broken structure, but right now you have a low, a high, and potentially a higher low.
potentially. We still got a lot of work to do before this is confirmed a reversal. But if we can get above this, right, that's a really good sign for ETH. And consequently, ETH has done pretty well coming off the low here for the last little bit. A lot of people getting bullish on ETH.
Robin Hood chain blah blah blah. At the end of the day, right, it's going up.
It's all that really matters. So, if you look at the weekly chart, just like we did on Bitcoin, we're still very much in a down leg here, but this has some room to go. This can very easily trade into the 2000s and then still put in a lower high or trade into the 2000s and then put in a higher low and then the bottom's in and we're going to it's go time. I don't know, right?
But this has room for more upside. We just took out external range liquidity. We put in a low. next target is back into the internal. So, that's what we're going to be looking for here on on most of these markets here is how high can these bounces go, but being cognizant and aware if we get signs of weakness, might be time to get the [ __ ] out. Now, ideally, I want that weakness to occur in the premium, right above the 50%, ideally 62 to 79, but we're constantly monitoring. Someone on Twitter said 12 hour sweep on F though. No.
Yes. So, there is a 12-h hour sweep here on ETH. It's a little bit lower than I'd like it to be. I'd much rather it occur up here, but like I said on Bitcoin, we kind of have that trend line liquidity building up on Bitcoin. You have the same thing here on ETH, right? Some really nice clean lows that could get wiped before continued upside. We don't know yet, right?
Go down to the 4our hourly. You know, you could argue you could argue there's a, you know, short in here somewhere. Whether it's already played out or not, maybe you want to wait till it loses this.
That's kind of high, right? Structure is like a little messy.
Like you could argue this is structure, but I think really structure is probably more realistically down there.
But maybe this is what plays out on ETH to your point, right? I don't know.
I don't know. I don't really have a trade idea on Bitcoin, ETH, or Soul right now. Like, I'm chilling. So, yes, there's a 12-h hour sweep there. Let's see what happens. But that's something to monitor. Soul, we had that sweep, we came down, we tagged demand, and now we've had a sweep to the downside here, right? You could argue this is looking slightly better.
Right, we had marked out this on soul BTC big pullback into this kind of weekly breaker. I would now want to see a bounce here.
Soul ETH, right? ETH has been outperforming Soul for the last little bit.
Could this be ready to turn around? I don't know yet.
But soul itself, it's coming off of demand. Still similar to ETH, similar to Bitcoin. We have a weekly down leg here from that high to this low.
This one's already come into the premium and sold off a little bit.
Maybe if the market's got one more push up, Bitcoin to 67, maybe we see Soul do something like this.
Right? Or if the market is just straight up bullish, like I said, soul is into demand here. This could absolutely just be a continuation of this reversal that's potentially occurring here and it could go make a higher high. So, I don't have, again, I don't have a trade on soul, ETH, or Bitcoin right now. I have areas that I'm watching. I think everything can trade higher. If there's a sign of weakness, I'm willing to short it. But for now, I'm chilling. We longed soul at 65 or 66. We longed Bitcoin at like 59. I don't need to. And we caught the meat of the move, right? Like we caught the meat of the move. We caught this entire leg on Bitcoin and we caught the entire Salana leg from like here um up to like here.
So again, I caught the meat of the move on both of these assets. Soul, it was here to here. Bitcoin, it was here to here. I don't need to be immediately in another trade, right? Just wait and see.
High leverage spots, high odd spots.
That's what the whiteboard series teaches you to look for. High probability areas where trade setups are going to occur. That's what I'm looking for. Now, all that I've talked about for the last 30 minutes here pretty much is low time frame trading. Right? We're looking at the 12-h hour, the hourly, the 4 hour. We're looking for trades that we can take on these assets. You have to be able to compartmentalize trading and investing in crypto. So, let's say I'm telling you I think Bitcoin might do this and you go, "Oh my god, Maine is bearish." Okay. Well, maybe for a trade I'm bearish, right? But high time frame, I think I've been abundantly clear that my mindset right now is I want to be a Bitcoin accumulator, a hyperlquid accumulator, sole ETH accumulator going into the end of this year, which is only five months away. So, even though I might be bearish for some sort of trade here, I've laid out in a variety of different ways, right? My bullishness, high time frame, how I think the bottom is close both in time and price. And I'm looking to accumulate these assets on any sort of dips. That's investing, buying spot, holding it because I believe we're going to have another bull run. I think I'm going to be able to get multiples on these coins. That is separate from what I'm talking about when I'm saying, "Hey, I think we might pull back a little bit." That doesn't mean sell all your spot. Main things are going to zero. Two different things.
Okay? I know it's very difficult sometimes have two things in your mind at the same time. Monkey brain, you know, not very sophisticated, very smooth. Okay? But there's trading, there's investing. So, if you see me say, "Hey, I'm shorting Bitcoin."
Doesn't mean that I don't want to buy Bitcoin long term. All right?
real quick. We'll go through some Trafy stuff and then I'll get into these. Uh, well, actually, let's look at Hyperlid, obviously. So, Hyperlid's an interesting one cuz like I really want to long Hyperlid down here. I have no idea if I'm going to get that chance. The only way I will get to long Hyperlid down here is if Bitcoin has another significant low. Like if we see Bitcoin put in, let's say Bitcoin does this just hypothetically. Hypothetically, let me talk about hyperlquid for a minute, please. Okay, let's say Bitcoin does this and then that's the bottom and then whatever. Okay, not exact squiggle, but let's say it has another push up and then one more low.
That's like a 30% drop. Okay, in that time, Hyperlid might go like this.
And then could it get a 30% drop from here? Yeah, absolutely. I think if Bitcoin drops 30%, there's a real chance that Hyperlid could drop 30%. So something like that, whether or not it goes up first, maybe Bitcoin just sells off from here. I don't know. But if Bitcoin does have one more low that's like decent, I think I might have a chance to buy Hyperlid sub 50 into even the 40s and I'm going to gobble it up.
I'm going to be a hungry hungry hippo for Hyperlid tokens.
All right.
Now, just because I want to buy here, it doesn't mean I'm going to get to. And it doesn't mean if we don't get here, I'm just not going to own Hyperlid.
If we only come down to here, but then Bitcoin in my opinion bottoms and hyperlquid puts in bullish structure. I will buy here. Okay, I need to have hyperlquid in my portfolio long term. I want to buy it down here, but it doesn't mean I'm going to get that opportunity. So, if Bitcoin does get that one more leg down, I'm still going to leave my high time frame area of interest and alerts here to buy.
But if we don't get that big leg down and the bottom's already in and we're just going to go sideways here, maybe a little bit of a pullback and sideways, I'll look to accumulate hyperlquid at a higher price. So, that's kind of the plan. Lower time frame here, right?
We're kind of in the middle of this range, but if you want to draw the range differently, right, to fit your bias, if you're like, I don't like that range, you could argue this is a decent range on Hyperlid. And we're kind of at the the low of the range right now. And you could just say, "Hey, you know what?
Like like I think this is just a buy, right? You got this whole breaker here, right? Order block. We took out this low.
You could say this is it right now."
Like you could start buying like you could start buying hyperlid for a trade like here. I think probably get away with it.
Even zooming in right there's your daily SFP.
If it comes down and tags this, I think you can probably long that long that B with a stop below 52.
or if you don't want to get cute with it and you could just start scaling in now.
Stop on a close below there, you're in.
Um, so it's like a very um clean setup I think as just like assuming this one of the most bullish assets on the planet uh and definitely in crypto is giving you a kind of really nice range retest type of setup. I see it. I see it. I hears it. I believes it.
And the riskreward is pretty good. Even just into a new high from a [ __ ] entry, it's 2R. If you can get a little bit of a nicer entry, right, you're probably you're probably good. So, that's short-term for Hyperlid. Just like I gave you a short-term plan for Bitcoin and everything, high time frame for Hyperlid, right? Just in case. I'm going to leave my levels here just in case. Just in case. You never know. You never know.
All right, let's go over some Trad 5 real quick. So, we're still just waiting for something to happen here. This has been May to now July that we've basically been going sideways.
Now, last time we had a really long consolidation period and ended up with a sell-off, right? And the trade was the exact same trade I'm showing you here. I said, "Hey, if we get a break above this all-time high range, you long it."
Didn't happen. Sold off. Break above the all-time high range, you long it. We're looking at the same [ __ ] here. Once we get a decent break above this all-time high range, I think you can just long uh equities. Otherwise, maybe we get a spill. You guys know where I'm looking.
But for now, like for three months, May, June, July, we're going sideways. So, if you ever been staring at ES other than like really low time frame day trading this and even that it's been pretty dog [ __ ] lately. Um, but if you're looking at it on any sort of high time frame, we're going sideways. And the last three times we went sideways for like a prolonged period of time, it led to a sell-off, right? Sideways, selloff, sideways, selloff, sideways, sell-off. The good news is every time it gets a significant break above all-time high, it just rips.
Significant break above all-time high, [ __ ] rip. Significant break above all-time high, ripped. Significant break above all-time high, ripped. So what? If it ain't broke, don't [ __ ] fix it. So I'm not fixing [ __ ] If this breaks out significantly above alltime high, I'm going to assume it's going to rip and I'll look to long. If it pulls back, this is the area I'm looking for the pullback. Just like this. Pulled back basically right into these old highs here. A little bit of a front run.
That's all I'm kind of marking out here.
Not rocket science. If it's [ __ ] complicated and you can't explain it, you probably don't know what you're talking about.
Like, if you ever want to know if your trade idea or your system is solid, like, you should be able to write it down on the back of a napkin.
Like I can write my trade setup down in like three lines and it's that simple. I know exactly what I'm looking for, where to enter, why I'm entering there, where's my stop, why is it there, where's my target, why is that my target? That's all you need.
A lot of people do not have if you're like sitting there and you're trying to find all these different confluences and this and that and you're really trying to like curve and adjust this chart to fit this idea that you have. It should be easy and simple, right? Keep it simple, you silly little [ __ ] Isn't that the Isn't that the term? The anagram. Is anagram even the right term?
acronym.
Talk about stupid. I'm [ __ ] stupid, clearly. Uh, but yeah, keep it simple.
Keep it simple. If you can't explain it, it's not obvious, probably not a good setup. Look for something different.
All right, real quick. We'll go over some of this memory stuff. So, I talked about on the stream last stream, right?
We had this big sell-off. A lot of stuff has broken structure, taken out the high. Now, it's made a new low. Okay, this is like giga alpha I'm about to give you. Okay, so I I told all you guys a lot of this stuff butt clench time.
Like, we're probably going to see some sort of bounce across the board on this stuff. All you do is you box out the high and the low. Okay, we traded above back below. This is your short. Okay.
Now, if this is a breakdown, this is going to do this or it might just do this. But if this is just a leverage wipeout based on what we saw happen in Korea, just a lot of leverage in the system in general, a lot of people late to the party, if this is just like a 30 40% sectorwide wipe that's going to clear out a bunch of leverage and these things are just going to continue, guess what?
That will be your long right now because we broke structure. If we get a reclaim here, any sort of weakness I see on the way up, I'm going to be hesitant that it's a lower high.
But I think if we reclaim the range lows here, it's worth longing all of this [ __ ] This works really well on almost everything this kind of setup, right? I did the same trade on Nvidia.
Take the high, right? Map out the low.
That's your short.
That's your long. Right. Look what's Nvidia doing right now.
Right. Deviation breakdown, potential deviation, break right back in. So, it's just wiping out both sides there.
Same [ __ ] So, Bloom hit the butt clench level. I think that's pretty straightforward, right? Get back above here becomes interesting again.
Nvidia, right? I want to see another structure break. We have the weekly take out the high, weekly structure break.
Still nothing. It's bouncing here. It didn't make a lower low. Kind of put in a lower high here or an attempt, but it's trading back up. If we do this, okay, I think this chart is now like high time frame bearish and probably gonna wipe out these lows, equal lows here. I've said this a thousand times, but if we don't, if we just keep trading like we're trading, we just grind higher. I'm going to assume this is a range reclaim and we're going to go take out this micron hit the butt clench level. Big [ __ ] bounce here, right? This is like a 40 30% bounce almost.
Still declining amplitude on the moves up, a breakdown of the primary trend and the secondary trend. This very well could be some sort of bearish retest, right? Absolutely.
But similar to Nvidia, I think you can do the same type of like analysis.
There's your high.
Here's your low. So, I'm going to assume this goes back up so long as it doesn't take this low out.
If it has some sort of sweep in here, if there's some sort of weakness, I think I can turn this to extended so it's a little cleaner.
Right? If we get any sort of weakness in here, it's not what I wanted.
There we go. If we get any sort of weakness in here on the way up, I might look to short because we have broken structure. Like we've broken weekly structure on some of this stuff.
Micron maybe not so much. 3-day technically, but as long as we're holding above this low, I'm going to assume this was a deviation deviation.
SanDisk, same thing. Hit the butt clench level. Definitely broke structure on this one. Right, there's your weekly low. It broke below there. There's your three-day low. It broke below there. So, this could be a relief bounce into a lower high. You got to remember, a lot of people got nuked, but there is some selling going on. There's people who joined this AI and semi trade late who might be underwater after buying over the last several weeks, right? All of June. Now they're underwater. They might look to sell on any sort of bounce and be like, "Holy [ __ ] that was scary."
There's also people who were in this trade from here. Okay, imagine being in this trade from here, right? You you longed this [ __ ] hella early. You're looking at your retirement account. You're like, "Oh my god, mama, I made it. I hit a [ __ ] 10bagger."
Okay, but then all of a sudden after a couple of weeks, you went from being up,00%.
To being up half of that. That's the funny thing about math. You're still up massively from your entry, but just a few short weeks time, you've wiped out 30 40% of your unrealized P&L.
What up RJ?
So, not only are there going to be people who were late that might want to sell, there's going to be people who are up a [ __ ] ton and they might go, you know what, I had enough. I don't want to suffer another draw down like this. I'm going to exit some. So, we could be met with some selling pressure on the move back up. Just saying. Anyways, Sandesk clench level. It held, but um you know, we've got a structure shift here.
Let me just clean this up here. Clean this up a little bit. But I think you can do same kind of analysis as you did on Micron there. If it holds this low, let's see what happens if we sweep out this high or something like that. It's probably a short.
Okay. Intel, same thing. Bucklance level held. But a lot of this stuff, right, this is the weakest it's looked in some time. Like that's a break of structure on the weekly.
AMD actually looks better.
The Cosby, the Korean index or this is SKH highix.
Sorry, excuse me. SK Highix.
This is the Cosby. No, that's Samsung.
This is the Cosby.
the one that says Cosby. But a lot of this stuff is broken structure, right?
Like art like hard to hard to deny that that is a structure break and it's the weakest a lot of this stuff has looked in sometime. And we're going to get into more of this when we get into the news.
But a lot of this stuff hit their kind of huge sell-off due for at the very least some mean reversion. Let's see how high these bounces go. Let's see whether or not this trade is over. We don't know.
We don't know. All right, guys. I'm gonna get into some chart requests here.
Um, QCOM.
Cody knows I'm [ __ ] so he'll be like stock. Otherwise, I'm like looking USD. Qualcomm. Qualcomm Incorporated.
Are these guys in the AI game now? Don't these guys do [ __ ] phones or something?
What do these guys do?
Mobile devices. That sounds like a [ __ ] phone to me.
Aren't they like broadband?
Is that a crazy pull?
Tell me the word. Tell me Tell me broadband is is is a word that that that that's applicable here.
voice data communications. I don't know about you boys, but that sounds like a [ __ ] phone.
You know, I saw a crazy video that said kids, if you ask like kids born after a certain [ __ ] year, if you ask them to hold a phone to their head, they go like this. Like this. Dude, are you in Are you Are you actually out of your mind?
Are you out of your [ __ ] caba, dude?
A phone is this, bro.
Okay, if you don't know what T9 word is for texting, don't talk to me. You're [ __ ] too young. You're too young. Okay, I used to [ __ ] have one of the phones that went like [ __ ] this, bro. [ __ ] rotary phone, bro. My phone had the cord, dude.
Okay, anyways, [ __ ] spazzing out here. Um, Qualcomm.
My boy is resetting his Qualcomm adapter right now. That's what I'm talking about. That's what I'm talking about.
Your boy knows technology.
I really really would have loved if this low got taken out because then this becomes like a giga just like breaker play right here. Like literally just ate this. Now this could be a mitigation block.
But mitigation has the word gay in it, so we don't like that. Um, I'm just kidding. I love the gays. Platonically, of course. Um, so yeah, I mean, I would look at this and be like, okay, what's going on here, Qualcomm?
That that I don't like. That's like reminiscent of like this kind of a move, right?
Like barely a higher high, barely a higher high. It's [ __ ] over, bro. So that's that's the thing that jumps out at me about this chart right now, right? Is just these kind of weakness up here.
Now, this absolutely can just turn around and rip, but that's what I'd be watching on this. Now, this is a [ __ ] huge range, but you know, that is your range. So, if this thing's going to continue to go, this is where you want to see the higher low form, right where we are right now.
But, ideally, I want to see this thing make a fresh significant high um and defend this low. So, I'd be watching that kind of structure. High time frame on this thing. Lower time frame, I don't really got much for you. It's at demand, right? Like this is this is demand here. So, if it's going to make a higher low, this is a good area for it to happen.
Hey, man. If I only have 25K USD to invest in crypto for the next cycle, if I want to make it, how would you plan to invest? Like how much spot, how much leverage, and how much for the trenches?
Um, if someone has to make it, they have to take more risk. How much you started with, how much grinding is required during the bull market. So, listen, dude. I'm not gonna I'm not I'm not handsome. I'm not um I'm not a a positive poly wag me. We're all gonna make a guy. So, I'm gonna preface this answer with, you know, that if you're coming here expecting me to tell you that you're going to turn 25K into enough money to make it, um this is not the stream for you. I will be very honest with you though. Um, and I think I can give you some tips and some ideas, but I also want to temper that with realism. The first thing, first question is what is making it? Making it is different for everyone. Is making it having enough money to never work again?
Okay. Well, where do you live? Do you have a family? Do you have kids? Do you have a wife? How much is your monthly nut? Like, what do you have to pay every single month to survive?
That's going to determine what you need to maybe never work again. you have enough money that's kicking off passive income that you don't have to work anymore. Is making it just paying off your house? Is making it just having enough money where you're not stressed about money anymore? So, that's question number one. But, I think the average person when they say make it, they mean, I want to turn a little bit of money into millions of dollars. I'm telling you right now with 25K, the likelihood of you turning 25K into millions of dollars is almost zero.
Now, I don't want you to be like, "Oh my god, Maine's a [ __ ] hater saying it can't happen." It can happen. You absolutely can turn 25K into millions of dollars, right? I've accumulated millions and millions of dollars over my trading career. And I started with very little money, but I've been doing this since 2014, right? And I didn't get rich on one single trade. Like I wasn't a guy who bought one meme coin and made it all at once. So I guess to answer your question a few ways.
Turning 25K into millions is and buying a lottery ticket. Sure it's possible.
Turning 25K into millions slowly by compounding over time. Sure it's possible, right?
But buying a memecoin lottery ticket has low odds. compounding over time. Yeah, you can get there, but it's going to take time and skill and effort and not giving up. But both of these scenarios are like 1% outcomes. The vast majority of people lose all their money investing. Just what it is. Crypto is no different. More than 85% 90% of people lose their money investing. They can't even outperform the stock market just investing in the S&P. So, I'm not trying to, you know, [ __ ] on your parade. I'm just being honest with you. Okay. Now, if you're saying, "Hey, dude. I'm willing to lose all of this 25K and I want to see how much I can turn it into and I want to turn it into as much as possible straight up." You're not going to turn 25K, in my opinion, into a crazy crazy sum of money trading unless you already know how to trade and you're good. And then we get a wicked bull run going and you're just a beast and you compound your wins. put all 25K into one trade, you get a double. Put the entire 50K into the next trade, you get another double. Like that kind of way. The other way you do it is you try and hit a [ __ ] scratch off lottery ticket.
You're buying a memecoin, hoping it goes crazy. Um, my not financial advice would be know what you're good at, know what your goal is, understand what your risk is, and then plan accordingly. Not a lot of stuff you're going to be able to put spot into is going to turn that into life-changing money. Let's say you buy Bitcoin with the 20 entire 25K at the low. The low's in at 60K. Let's say how high do we go next cycle? 180 240. It's like a three to 4x. You now have 100 grand. Like it's not making it right. Memecoins maybe if you get lucky.
99% of people lose their money on memecoins, but just maybe you're in the right one. You buy low with size and you sell high.
So, I don't know, bro. I don't think I don't know if I answered your question or if I just absolutely [ __ ] on your head. I didn't mean to, but I just feel like some people need to be a voice of reason because there's a lot of people, in my op opinion, irresponsibly telling people that they're going to get rich trading and doing memes when it's demonstrabably not the case. I want you to get rich. I want you to make it. The reason I share free trading education is to teach people to trade so they have a better chance in the markets. But I'm also very honest with people. Most of you won't do the work. Most of you are going to get absolutely [ __ ] smoked by the market.
So David, this is a very good example of what I'm talking about. He had 25K last bull market and he turned it into 250.
Now he has 200K. So he achieved a little over a 10x. If he's able to replicate that again this bull market, yeah, he's now got millions of dollars. That's absolutely a way to make it. The problem is, or not the problem, but the thing is is this has taken him admittedly one full bull market to go from 25k to 200. Now, if he can have a really good performance in this next bull run, he's in the a million dollars is a 5x for him. He might even be able to get there with just like Bitcoin or pretty damn close.
That's in striking distance. But in terms of a time horizon, we're now talking 2020, 2021 to possibly 2028, 2029. He's in there for five, six, seven years to get to that point. So that is a very realistic outcome or not realistic is the wrong word, but that is a that is a outcome that can happen in these markets for sure. You can turn 25K into a couple hundred grand and then next bull run turn that into millions. It's doable. Good for you, David. So yeah, I don't know if that answered your question, ML basics, but I'm just trying to be like, you know, pragmatic and honest and realistic with the vast majority of you. I love all of you for watching my streams. I'm going to do everything in my power to help you guys make money, sharing trades, teaching you to trade, sharing analysis, my thoughts, doing these streams. But most of you, right, it's just the reality aren't going to make it. It's how it goes. A lot of dead bodies on the [ __ ] summit to Everest.
Um, okay.
But I do believe that you need to be positive the entire time. You'll never make it if you don't think you're going to make it. So, just cuz I'm [ __ ] giving you all the negatives here, I'm just trying to say here's the reality, but you have to be absurdly optimistic about your own potential and and um abilities that you do well. Like you got to be like, "Dude, there's no I walk through life assuming everything's going to work out for me. I'm an overachiever. Things always work out in my favor. I'm blessed. I'm highly favored. I have unbelievable aptitude. I'm going to have unbelievable outcomes." That's just my mindset. You got to have that mindset.
Don't go in being a negative Nancy.
Um, but also understand the risks. And if that 25K is all the money that you have in the world, I would say don't invest the vast majority of it in crypto, secure your life first. Anyways, maybe I should change my brand to be Wag Me and just bull non-stop, tell you all that you're going to get rich on memecoins and in the trenches and you're all going to make it and I'd probably have more followers.
I'd probably have more followers.
I've built a brand though. I think being honest and telling people things can go both ways and it's done me well, but I know I would have way more followers and I'd probably have more money because I'd probably be taking shitty memecoin deals and shilling you guys trash like a lot of these guys do. Um, telling you we're all going to make it while they [ __ ] they're saying you're all going to make it while they're dumping their pre-sale allocation on your head. Um, anyways, let's move on.
lighter is the same setup as hyperlquid, right? Same setup here.
High time frame. We've got some demand here. We've got a sweep.
This is going to go. It should go from here. Similar to hyperlid, right? Like this has already moved a little more.
You could even maybe get away with a tight ass stop, but I ideally you would have gotten in lower here, but same idea as hyperlquid like this is if it's going to put in a higher low. This is exactly where you want to see it happen. Lighter is the same setup. I want to see it happen there. Weekly is put in a nice big move up. I would like to buy lower. I would like to buy lighter below 190 just like I'd like to buy hyperlquid at 50 cents.
doesn't mean it's gonna happen.
Brother, you have typed Nike in the chat 50 times. It's on the list. Okay. Cody is not [ __ ] He sees the suggestions. He takes he takes uh he takes note of them and he adds them in a little list here I have on one of my 42 monitors and then I try and get through as many of them as possible. So, don't worry. I'm going to look at Nike. In fact, it's coming up next right after this. Okay.
Um, so yeah, lighter. This is demand.
This is demand. If it's going to go up, there's your 12-hour range low, range high, order block sweep.
Right. This is like that's a trader main setup 101 right there. I wish I took that myself. 101.
All right, Nike. Here we go, big guy. I got Nike coming for you. Hot and heavy.
So, I think I saw someone, it might have been you, say, "Let's talk about things like Nike now that um the World Cup's over." How much money are some of these companies standing to make now that the World Cup is over? did they make selling merch, all the other [ __ ] all the other accuchal that goes along with the World Cup, right?
So, I talked about this like I want to say like a couple months ago, but like you know, hey, where's this recession?
Where's the recession? But then you look at some companies like Nike. There's companies that have fully had bare market pullbacks, right? So Nike is a company. It makes a lot of money, right?
Like Nike earnings estimate revenue 11 billion.
2025 they beat their estimate. They did 46. They're estimated to do around the same. Oh, something big happening here.
Some growth.
Let's look at quarterly here.
So, like they make a ton of money. Like this company's not going anywhere, right? And it's down 70% from the high.
So, I have to admit like at this point like this is something that's interesting to me. like at the highest time frames, right? We had an obvious top here. Okay, monthly SFP.
Go down to the weekly chart.
There's your structure break, right? You're a bear on this chart after that happens. So, I think at this point, like how much lower can this go? I have no [ __ ] idea, but I think there's probably a pretty good level below there, right?
Which is just below all these yearly lows here. This is like 2017 that we've wiped out these prices.
Is Nike less valuable than it was back then? I doubt it.
Looking at this just like an altcoin, aggressive selloff, less aggressive, right? Potentially time to turn around.
So, I don't really have a setup on this right now, but I will say it's down 70%.
Still think it's a good company. Some sort of reclaim of 50, which is effectively this level mixed with the big kind of psychological level at 50. I think you can probably structure a trade around that, right back above here, back above this. This is probably 50 right here. Pretty damn close. Back above this low. I think this looks good for a move up. And then that is your risk right and that becomes pretty interesting. You have this very aggressive orderly downtrend for what is this four years low or high low high lower low high lower low like super orderly. If all of a sudden and notice not in a single one of these lower lows do we have any sort of sustained rally. So if we're able to get above this down 70%. All of a sudden like something like this right trend line liquidity becomes very interesting and you can have like that is not a crazy loose stop right and that's a clear invalidation. That's a high time frame view on something like this. I think if we go on the lower time frames, like zooming in, I don't know, the 12-hour like there's a range here. We swept the range.
I don't know. I don't know if I would take a trade until it's back above there. Maybe tap three-day month down below. Yeah, right. That's the other option is this selloff's not over yet and it wants to come down here. It did it tag this level already though?
Pretty damn close. No, it tagged it.
Yeah. So, it tagged the level already.
So, consolidating here. I think you just kind of wait right above here. I think it becomes very interesting. For now, it's just in the range.
Cynics.
All right. The nifty IT index So, um, yeah, Nike plays dividends. There you go. Pays dividends. Um, so if I'm not mistaken, the Nifty index is the Indian NASDAQ basically, but I think the main difference obviously one of them is in India. Um, the main difference is I think the NASDAQ is a hundred companies and the Nifty is only 50. That's why it's called the Nifty50.
Um, yeah. I mean, this looks like so many of those charts, right, that we just shared. If you remember all of these, right?
Right. Box, box, right? Box. Box. Okay.
Um, you know, it looks so similar.
Kind of got like a nice range here that we're working with. And we kind of ran the range lows. What was the [ __ ] ticker you had for this? There it is.
So like that that's kind of what I'm watching, right?
Look at the sixmonth chart.
Yeah, it's a sweep. So that that that's just like this is just like a range trade, right? We deviated the top, we took out the low. The expectation is probably at least a move into here, right? Fill in a little bit more of this thing.
Go down like the weekly, the daily.
I mean, if you want to get crazy, dude.
You want to get crazy, you like [ __ ] like long it already. But I've never traded this in my entire life.
Yeah, like this is definitely like a daily breaker setup there for sure up into here.
Nifty50.
The more you know. Why can't ours have a cool name, guys? It's like 10 [ __ ] five outside today.
I gotta go to the gym after this.
Yeah, it is 100. Tomorrow is going to be 100 in Canada. That's insane.
What is that in Fahrenheit?
Tomorrow is going to hit 99 in Fahrenheit. 37 Celsius. Crazy.
Crazy. Crazy.
Uh, let's see here. LTC from the Nifty50 to LTC only on the order book show. Are you getting this kind of variety, boys?
Like, did I delete LTC from my [ __ ] list? I call it a memecoin.
There it is. Piece of [ __ ] I don't know, man. I like again, yes, this thing is going to go up at some point. It's going to have a rally like it always does. LTC always has its [ __ ] its rally, right? It's it's definitely going to have a rally. I mean, look, 2017, 2020, right? But this is the last bull run. Not saying this thing isn't going to have a rally, but I don't see LTC going back to these levels. Anything's possible, but I don't really see it going back that high.
And there's just like better stuff to own. Like LTC is effectively dead. Who's using LTC? What are they using it for?
Right? Like is it making any money? Is there anyone paying attention to this?
Are any new retail traders, new interested buyers in crypto going to look at LTC and be like, "That's the coin I want to buy." I don't really think so. Now, does it mean it can't go up? No, of course it can go up. And again, like a lot of these coins, it's down, you know, 99.9% right from the highs. It's down at the original areas of accumulation. So, like the last times this bottomed, it was all from this general area. So, do I think this is a good place to look at LTC? Yeah, it's better than looking here or up here. But do I have any interest in holding this thing? Absolutely [ __ ] not. Um, so it's at an area of interest.
This is where every single rally has originated from this area down here. So, it's got that going for it. Um, otherwise, I just have no interest in this [ __ ] coin. Like, zero.
zero.
It's like, okay, it's that demand.
LTC is the primary payment for back page and similar websites. Okay. I mean, but like is that like meaningful amount of revenue?
Litecoin generates very little actual revenue. Oftent times just a few thousand per day in transaction fees like am I wrong?
and it's like valued at 13 billion. I don't know, dude.
So, yeah, it's at demand. This is where this is where it should be, you know, finding support. However, just look at what happened here. Remember how many coins we were watching during this range?
like lighter like near like many other coins that ranged and then broke out. Lighter or Litecoin just made a lower low, right? So again, it's demonstrabably weaker than a lot of other stuff on the market. I'm not trying to tell you not to trade it. Trade whatever the [ __ ] you want. Um but I think there's just better coins to look at to hold, etc. But three-day sweep, probably a weekly sweep, too, I'd imagine.
3-day SFP, weekly SFP in demand.
It's going to go up, right? I you want to see it go up from here.
Could argue it has just now had its market structure. So like I don't know if Bitcoin gets a big pullback right to 60. How big of a drop is this?
Yeah, could see something like this play out on Litecoin. I don't know. But I'm not interested in this.
Can I help you cope with Tesla all-time high buys?
That [ __ ] stings. Let's see.
I mean, I've been pretty vocally bearish on Tesla, right? trend line break, market structure. This is the same chart as Nvidia. Until we get that secondary market structure break, we might still go up. If we do get a market structure break below 337, then I think we probably trade lower So for now, right, you have some hope, but the concern is sweep structure break, lower high. If this makes a lower low, I think it's probably cooked.
BTC daily candle stuck. I don't know what that means. Stuck. How?
All right. Near.
Yeah. I mean, into resistance here, right? On the highest time frame. You're just looking for this thing to put in a higher low now, right? Like if this thing's going to go up higher, I need this to be the beginning of a bullish reversal. So, I need a low, which I have.
[ __ ] you. We have a high. Okay. Now, I'm looking for a higher low to form.
Whether it's here or right where we are now, I don't know yet. So, you start looking for clues. Okay. Well, if it's going to potentially be where we are now, what could cause that higher low?
Well, we have a fair value gap right here.
Excuse me. Within that fair value gap, we have a sweep.
So, if this thing's going to go, if this is going to be the area for a higher low, kind of want to see it happen from right around here. Otherwise, I think maybe lower. This is very similar to like Hyperlquid, very similar to Lighter, very similar to even LTC that we just looked at. A lot of this stuff, it's like, okay, we've gotten this kind of bounce out the bottom.
Let's see if it can actually turn into some sort of reversal.
So, here's our big oops, our big swing low, big swing high. Now, anywhere within this price leg, right? Let me just demonstrate this with the fib.
Anywhere within this price leg, the higher low can occur. Most optimally, it's below the 50%. Well, we're already there. So, now my job, again, this is 101 stuff from the whiteboard series video, is I'm going to be looking for POIs in this price leg and see if price bottoms at any of them.
I don't know which one will make it bottom. I don't know if it will bottom at all, but that's the entire process here.
But this is effectively the first area I think of interest where it's in the discount. Got a nice sweep there invalidation like this is an area to look for an entry if you're not already in it for the higher low to form. If we break below from here, right, if we do another leg down, I'm going to say, okay, well, where could this be coming to? Maybe it's coming to this weekly order block, right? I don't know. That's kind of what we're looking at.
Would I buy for the next cycle? No. I have no interest outside of like Hyperlquid, Salana, ETH, and Bitcoin. Those are probably the only three coins. maybe some lighter um that I'm interested in holding spot in any sort of meaningful size. Will I trade other coins? Absolutely. But the vast majority of coins that came out in the last cycle are not going to perform as well in this cycle as they did in the last one. And they're most likely going to underperform new coins that get launched in this new cycle. So, not really interested in something like Ono.
Doesn't mean Ono can't go up and can't have a, you know, a a big rally, right?
It absolutely could. It's down 90% right, from its all-time high. It's turning around a little bit, but I mean, EOS is my favorite example of this.
Like, this is the future of the vast majority of your altcoins. they get launched, maybe they have another rally in the next bull market and then they fade to irrelevance. It's the euthanasia coaster, right? This is the vast majority of coins.
Go look at any 2017 2018 altcoin. Go look at 2021 altcoins um and compare them to this most recent bull run. That's just like what happens.
So, some of these coins are going to rally. They're going to have bounces.
Um, but the vast majority of them will never come anywhere near their old highs. I'll probably delete 90% of the [ __ ] off of this list right here.
Straight up.
I was so bullish. loop ring in 2022.
Yeah, bro.
RIP. Had a nice run, but then just like never again. Like if a coin can have two bull runs, like the bull run it's launched in and then another run, that's by crypto standards really good. Many coins, they only get their initial run and then never again. Link had a secondary run. So this is the first bull market. This is the most recent one.
Some coins only get [ __ ] one and then never again, right? But usually the second one is smaller than the the first one. What it is, guys, you gota you gotta you gotta be realistic with yourself.
Just go look at the data. I'm not making this [ __ ] up. Go look at coins that mattered the last few cycles. Look at them now. There's very few and you'll be like, "What about Hyperliquid or Salana, whatever." Like, there's there's outliers, there's exceptions, but those don't make the rule. The vast majority of [ __ ] just dies. What altcoins do I believe in? Pretty much none. Pretty much none. I don't really believe in any of them at all. Like Hyperliquid I believe in because it's the company, right? Lighter now with Robin Hood, there's something there. ETH base layer makes money. Got to believe in it.
Salana makes money. Got to believe in it. But really everything else, most of it's just dog [ __ ] Speaking of dog [ __ ] Dogecoin, you guys are unbelievable.
You guys are unbelievable.
So, I mean, little Doge dude again, crazy rip in 2021, crazy rip in 2024, 2025.
Still smaller, right? What happened to Dogecoin to a dollar? We didn't even go as high as we did in the last market.
Now, this is one of those coins that is just synonymous with crypto. It's a memecoin. It's like one of the OG meme coins along with coins like Pepe. So, like you could argue like this thing goes back to 2013 and it is higher than it was then. This is rare. Most coins are like below their launch levels, right? So, the fact that this is still way higher than when it got launched, amazing, right? But at the end of the day, this coin has no intrinsic value.
no intrinsic value.
Secondly, Dogecoin specifically has no supply cap. Every year, I don't remember the number. I want to say like four or five billion Dogecoin get minted.
There's no supply cap. It's inflationary. It goes like there's unlimited tokens forever. There's no scarcity even built into this. That's why there was an argument for like something like bonk, I believe. Or no, not bonk. What is it?
Um, let me look this up.
Yeah, Bonk has an actual like limit of coins now. It's in the trillions, but like there's a limit, right? So, the fact that this is higher than it ever was like back then, there's still something there. And like this has had this is the 2017 bull run, Doge had a crazy rip. And then obviously in this one, Dogecoin millionaires were minted.
So, like of the meme coins, like Doge is one that I think you got to keep on the list because it's got that OG staying power. And like I say with a lot of this stuff, it's down, you know, 80 90% from the last high. So if you're going to look at it, now's a good time. This is kind of the floor where it bottomed last time. So it went up, this was the bottom, went up. This is potentially the bottom. So this is where I'd be paying attention to Doge for sure. It hasn't turned around yet. Still very firmly bearish on all the high time frames, but you could argue, you know, it's starting to go sideways now. So, it's no longer just aggressively selling off, but it was going sideways here and it made another low. So, just keep that in mind.
But I would start looking at something like this and immediately my mind is like, okay, what are like some reclaim levels like that? You have this former price floor here 12 or weekly bearish order block above here. That's a very nice looking setup on something like Dogecoin.
clear invalidation, clear targets.
Okay, but yeah, Dogecoin's one of the OGs. And what's funny is there's people who are asking about coins that had a product and know all this stuff that they were going to do and deliver on and they raised a bunch of money. They raised many millions of dollars, some of these coins, and they're doing worse than Dogecoin, which is a completely madeup coin. Does nothing. It's been around since 2014 and it's outperformed all of some of the like look at Bara chain so many of these coins TIA raised millions and millions of dollars and did [ __ ] all [ __ ] all but go down VC exit scam Dogecoin unlimited supply doing better than that crazy what's up Zolia can I look at ton I I like I don't really have like are you talking about Titan Holdings or is there a crypto called Pawn Toncoin?
Yo, do you think most of these coins will die like Avac Suie will just die like how and died? I mean, unless they do something crazy like like you know what I mean? Like unless something happens and AVAC does something different where it starts making a bunch of [ __ ] money and a bunch of people want to use Avalanche, then yeah, I assume this coin's [ __ ] eventually just slowly going to die.
Yeah, Ton's the Telegram coin. Um, here we go. Uh, previously Toncoin.
Yeah, interesting spot, right?
Interesting spot there for sure. Three or weekly demand weekly SFP.
So if it can hold this flip here, if it can hold a break above like this, it's probably a decent setup.
Um, okay guys, I'm getting a little long in the stream here. We're an hour and a half in already. So, I'm going to answer this question here. Maine, I have two questions regarding external range liquidity or internal range liquidity.
If a candle broke under the starting point of the range but came back in, so you extend the range or leave it as alone because it's a sweep. So, essentially what he's asking is let's assume that we have price do this. Well, actually, I can show you because Bitcoin just did this.
So, the answer is you move it, right? So, this was our weekly swing from here to here.
Now, we broke below it here, but we reclaimed. So, he's asking, do you leave this range, right? Or do you adjust? I adjust. Okay.
So, the new weekly range is now here to here because we broke below that old weekly range. So, even though we reclaim that old low, we broke below the old weekly range. It doesn't change anything. You still trade it the same way. We're at the range lows. We put in a sweep down here. You would trade this setup at the lows here the exact same as this one. Sweep at the range lows. It's the same. But in terms of marking your current levels of structure, which is what you're asking, it gets adjusted when we get that new break.
Now, if it's an SFP, if that wouldn't have been a close, you leave it because it's not a break yet. But when there's a break below, it's a break in structure.
You have new structure levels.
Also, when a range is still forming, do you wait for a pullback before drawing the range or do you look left to see the last swing in the meantime?
Once you have like you're saying, okay, you have a low to a high here. Let's say this is your range.
And then he's saying, let's say this breaks low.
Do I look for the last range, right?
While this new one's formed yet, it hasn't put in a low. I'm actively waiting for this thing to put in a low before I do anything. I'm not looking to trade once it's broken this low because eventually this thing's going to reverse. And the actual trade I want is down here. And then the next trade I want is here into that new range. So once it's forming a new range, you wait for a swing low to form. Requires patience. So, okay, we made a lower low.
I'm not doing anything. We just made a lower low. Like the short was up here, not here. I'm waiting. Once I get that three candle swing, now I have my new range to work with.
How do you uh adjust between that and a deviation? But it doesn't matter.
Doesn't matter even if this is just a deviation, right? Let's assume that this this low is just a deviation below this low. It doesn't change anything. Nothing has changed. The weekly here is bearish.
This is bearish.
If anything, by adjusting the range, if this is actually a reversal now, by adjusting the range, I get a earlier indication of bullishness above here rather than here. But even if this is just a deviation, how does that change anything? We're at the range low. I'm expecting a bounce. And if this is just a deviation, well, where do I expect that bounce to go to? Somewhere in here.
Same thing. It's all the same, right?
Um, okay. I'm gonna get into um some of the news and stuff here now, guys. I appreciate uh all the chart requests and stuff. I hope you guys learned something as always. I hope you know what my plans are. I try and be super clear. I didn't get to all of your guys' uh requests, but we'll get to them on Thursday's stream. I'll have Cody leave these on.
Zack, Rocket Lab, M Micro Strategy. We will look at those Thursday 100%.
Um, but yeah, let's get into some other stuff. But real quick before I do that, make sure you go follow the order book orderbook show on Twitter and on Instagram. It really helps me out.
Do I not allow super chats? You're missing out on lots of money. I don't even really monetize my YouTube. I don't think I've ever received any money from YouTube ever, but Cody, we can look into that. I don't know how it works. Um, but yeah, please go follow Orderbook Show.
We've been doing this stream for five months now, guys. I'm really enjoying being back to streaming. I used to be one of the OG crypto streamers back in the day. Then I stopped for a long time.
Um, now I'm back and now it seems like everyone's streaming now thanks to guys like Thread Guy, Anom. Tons of people are doing crypto content. Back when I used to do these videos, it was like me, Bit Boy, [ __ ] Moon Carl and Kryptoface, right? Moonongarl and Bit Boy were trash. Me and Cryptoface pretty goated, but not a lot of people were doing just straight up TA stuff. It was only me for a long time. And then slowly more and more people are starting to stream, starting to share their charts, do videos, which I love. I think it's awesome. Uh, but I've been doing this a long time, guys. 000 videos plus on YouTube. Over 1,000 videos going back to 2018. So if you like me, you're liking the new streams, go give a follow on the orderbook show on Twitter and go give a follow over on Instagram as well. We're posting tons of different clips from the streams, getting pretty consistently in the thousands of views, which is awesome. So if you want to support your boy, order book show on Twitter and Instagram. And of course, go watch the whiteboard series. We just released a new video yesterday.
Look at the shirt. Crazy shirt for a 42year-old man to wear. Insane shirt, but I'm trying to keep up hip with the kids.
So, go watch this. This is stuff not to do when looking for trades instead of just looking for trades on everything.
Look at that freeze frame looking absolutely [ __ ] anemic. The cut is cutting too hard maybe. Um, but things not to do when looking for trades. Okay, so go watch this. There's what's this?
The 15th video. We've got another 15 coming. I'm recording a new one tonight after the gym. So, if you want to support me, make sure you're watching those videos as well. If you're wondering what these ranges are, order blocks, terms I'm using like SFPs, internal range liquidity, external range liquidity, all of that stuff is in these videos. I've been working really hard on them. I think this is the best work I've done on YouTube is this video series.
So, make sure make sure you go give these a watch. Really helps me out.
So, I want to talk a little bit more about our Korean DGEN friends.
Our Korean friends are degenerate in ways that us crypto traders could only dream.
I think I told you guys the stat last stream. Something like one in 30 working age Koreans got liquidated in this massive kind of Korean stock market selloff.
One in 30. You're walking down the street. One in every 30 people got liquidated. They're having a bad [ __ ] time. We as crypto traders know all about it. We just had a mass casualty event, an extinction level event like 10 months ago in October. People got absolutely smoked. They got smoked.
Okay. So, 130 working age Koreans get licked. And we got stories like this coming out.
Now, this guy is the epitome of the diamond miner meme. Okay, so this guy is he's this guy right here. Okay, he is this guy right here.
Never give up when you're this close to the guy the diamonds, right? Never stop gambling.
Okay, I just turned on super chat. I don't know if it works right away. Maybe you got to refresh, but give it a try.
So, Lee Sung-ho, great name, awesome name. He's a university student. He's 24. I'm 42. I'm HJ's backwards.
Um, he made 300 million Juan. I don't know what that is in dollars. Okay. He's a university student. He took out a 500% margin loan and he turned his 20 million into 300 million. He hit like a [ __ ] more than a 10 bagger, 15 bagger, 20 bag, almost 20 bagger, 15x gain. It says right here, why even do math? Okay, so Lee Sun-ho, 24year-old Korean trader, university student, took out a 500% margin loan, turned 20 million Juan into 300 million. Then the Korean stock market crashed violently and he got liquidated.
He says, "I'm not quitting. I'm going to take out another margin loan the moment I save up enough money." And his story isn't unusual. It's the system working as designed. Korean stock market margin loan balances hit a record of 38 trillion one in June.
Broader investor debt, including other forms of borrowing, crossed 60 trillion Juan by the end of May. Right. As the Korean's $4.1 trillion market became the world's most volatile. Think about these numbers here. Okay? Massive [ __ ] numbers. The head of financial supervisory services already admitted the approval was rushed. Leverage accelerates losses on the way down far faster than it builds wealth on the way up. Ain't that the truth? And right now, an entire generation of Korean retail traders are finding it out the hard way.
Now, this goes to what I talked about in the last video, which is like a lot of people, thanks for the super chat, the Oscar Hernandez. I appreciate you, bro.
First one ever. Um, are feeling like many young people I think around the world, the only way to escape the permanent underclass to keep up with the rising cost of living is to literally gamble your way out of it. But this guy is a gigachad. He's not giving up. He's not quitting. He says, "You know what? I got annihilated. I'm going back to the drawing board. Soon as he saves up some more money, he's going right back into the game, right back into the trenches with another insanely margined levered loan. I wish him the best. I wish him the best. But that guy earlier who asked me, "How do I turn 25K into making it?" Doing what he did is one way, but it his result, his outcome is the norm. Getting absolutely smoked.
A lot of people go crazy heavy on the leverage on the way up and then they get wiped out. Look at the bonk guy who is now devolved into just shilling like one coin. I like it's uni uni or whatever.
Uh he just starts shilling like a meme coin I think if I'm not mistaken. Same with white whale right giga leverage guy. Everyone's like this guy's a Chad gets annihilated on 1010 and starts shilling the white whale token. Um, I don't I don't think uh this is any different, right? People are trying to get rich, they go crazy on the leverage and most of them never take profit. They never delever and they end up getting smoked. Very few people actually make it. A good example of someone who made it is like Nexus. So, he farmed the hyperlquid drop, traded aggressively very well, and then took profit at the top and turned a little bit of money and an airdrop into more than eight figures.
If I'm not mistaken, that is the exception, not the rule. He is an outlier. He's the 1%. The vast majority of people end up like White Whale Bonk Guy or Sun Leho or whatever that guy's name was. So, with the title, keeping with the title of the stream, the markets are becoming kind of decorrelated in some ways. Some things are correlated. Some stuff's going up, some stuff's going down. It's a little bit different than what we had where for the last handful of months it seemed like all of tech, all of AI, um the indices were just going up. But now, right, the S&P is going sideways.
NASDAQ's going sideways. The US30 arguably going up, Russell arguably a little bit more bullish here, right?
There's your breakout of alltime high and retest, but a lot of stuff been going sideways, chilling. All of a sudden, crypto perking up a little bit.
But a correlation that's, you know, really strong right now is actually the South Korean market and the US market with regards to this AI trade. So, these two markets have become increasingly synchron synchronized. The 60-day correlation between the Cosby and the NASDAQ is up to 46. This is the highest in over two years. This is a sharp reversal from the negative correlation that they had in March. So, how can we look at that visually?
Pull up the NASDAQ here.
Okay. Pull up the Cosby over here.
So, in March, right, Cosby selling off, right? Right? Whereas in March, NASDAQ ripping here. So negative correlation, less correlated here. These arguably look still pretty correlated, but now these markets are very tightly correlated is what this is suggesting.
By comparison, the average 5-year correlation is 0.16, nearly onethird of the last 60-day metric. Furthermore, the NASDAQ's hundreds sensitivity to decline in South Korea's stock is up to its highest level since 1990. So, they're so correlated right now that when the cost be sells off, we're seeing a correlated decline in the NAS. So, in other words, declines from South Korea's equity are increasingly serving as an early read on US and global equity risk appetite, particularly in technology stocks. The AI trade has never been more global. So pretty interesting stuff coming out of Korea here. We saw that mass liquidation event. The selloff happened earlier in Korea, right? Like before this even really started to sell off here. Korea started to sell off really aggressively and much more uh downside was captured there.
So while that's happening, we're seeing this correlation tighten between the NASDAQ and the Cosby. We're seeing a lot of people step right back into the market. I saw a ton of tweets today being like, you know what, Micron looks good again. This is a big leverage wipeout. SanDisk looks good again. The Cosby looks good again. We're due for some mean reversion. At that same time, we have leverage unwinding in China.
Margin depth on the Shane High. Uh, and Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, how's my pronunciation? Exchange fell 2.8% 8% on Friday or 11.7 billion. It's the largest daily decline in over 10 years, almost 10 years, sorry, over nine years. This also marks the fourth consecutive daily decrease totaling almost $ 37 billion.
This comes after the star 50 index, which is Chinese, the Chinese NASDAQ, the Indian Nifty50, it's the star 50 in China, plunged 7.1% on Friday. It's its second largest daily drop this year, while the CSI 300 fell 3.6%.
Memory chip stocks were at the center of the sell-off after attracting the highest level of margin borrowing. As a result, their ch sharp selloff triggered margin calls forcing investors to liquidate and sell.
So, we're seeing the same thing happen globally, right? Big sell off in the NASDAQ, big selloff in the Cosby, big selloff in China. We're seeing people who were using margin get annihilated.
Koreans annihilated. Many people in America got annihilated. Right?
What we're seeing in China now, however, is that rapid unwind of leverage is occurring. Whereas comparatively, you look at what happened in Korea. You got guys like Sun Leho. I can't I think I've said his name three different ways now.
He is going right back in the casino.
He's like, "The moment I have more money, I'm putting the leverage back on." China is unwinding some of this leverage.
Okay, we have hedge funds slashing their exposure at a record pace. Goldman Sachs has reported that hedge funds are net sellers in six of the last eight weeks through July 16th. So, this is already fiveday stale data. The biggest 8-week outflow in over a decade in tech. Tech now ranks as the most sold US sector by hedge funds with net flows down nearly 9.5% and exposure at a 2026 low of 15.5%.
Again, this lines up with the big pullback that we saw in the markets as semiconductors just semiconductors now make up 14% of the US market cap.
double com peaks driven by Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, etc. Big tech obviously under scrutiny mostly for spending. So these earnings are crazy.
The valuations are high and spending is nuts. 5.3 trillion in spending plans. So a lot of retail I think is thinking like Korea. They're buying, they're holding, they want to be long, they want to be levered, they want to be margined.
And hedge funds, you know, unwinding a little bit. Is that smart money? Is this a tell of what's coming?
Are they ahead of the curve or are we going to get one more leg up? TBD. TBD.
But something to watch, right? This could just be profit taking, right? Just because they're pulling out, it doesn't mean it's over. A lot of this stuff is up such ridiculous amounts just in the last year alone. Micron's up 300%.
Right. This could be profit taking.
Now, back to what we know. Sailor, I I appreciate that not as many people are talking about this. Like, I didn't even see this on my timeline initially. A lot of people jumped and were like, "Okay, USD reserves went up. Did he sell more Bitcoin?" The answer is no. Right? So they've shared up more cash. They shared up more cash and they did it by diluting um common stockholders even more. So there was no Bitcoin sales. It was all micro strategy common stock. So have that single line analysis, right?
We're holding outside of there. Now ideally if this thing is bottoming and it's going to reverse, it has to happen above there. Okay? We're not there yet.
We're not there yet, but it's going sideways. It's not selling off as aggressively, and it's broken this downtrend line. So, it's something to watch. And he didn't sell Bitcoin. And now he's got 3.2 billion in USD reserves, which is years worth of dividend payments.
So, have they weathered the storm? If Bitcoin has bottomed, you could argue that Micro Strategy, even though they had to sell some Bitcoin, it weathered the storm. Now, part of my four-year cycle theory is that we're going to see Sailor have to get one more big, you know, smack, one more leg down on Bitcoin, causing him to have to sell um, you know, a significant sum of Bitcoin.
Like, I'm talking billions. That hasn't happened. If the bottom is in on Bitcoin, you could argue the worst of it's over for Sailor. And as Bitcoin goes up, he secured the bag and he he survived. So something to watch.
Breakout made some nice quality of life changes today. How about we talk about the fact that Breakout now has listed NASDAQ 100. We have dipped our toes into Tradfi Assets. We have been the biggest and best crypto prop firm on the planet for years now. Um, we're one of the biggest prop firms on the planet, full stop, paying out tens of millions of dollars to our traders. Um, with no payout denials. We have the best rules. We have the best payout terms. Hence why so many prop firms are trying to do what we do, daily payouts, things like that. We pioneered that [ __ ] And now we're coming for their lunch. A lot of what has been asked from me over the recent years is like, I want I love Breakout, but I want to trade other assets. We're finally ready to start dipping our toes in that world. And we started just on Monday, yesterday, with NASDAQ. So, you can now trade NASDAQ the same way you trade crypto using your breakout account.
So, we've been talking about Bitcoin looking potentially bullish, right? Make sure you use code Maine, by the way. If you're buying a new account because of NASDAQ, use code Maine. Shout out your boy. Make me look good to the higherups. Um, I think Bitcoin is arguably being viewed as more bullish than it has in a significant amount of time since like back here in May when people were bullish at the top. People getting bullish on this move up. That's being reflected in the poly market here.
So on the poly market for what price will we hit in July? It's now the 21st.
We got 10 days left.
A lot more people thinking, hey 70k 675, right? What's the high? We already hit 67.
675 not that far away. 70k not that far away.
$1,000 pays you 2.6k on a move to 70K. That's only like a less than 5% move away from current price.
Where are you going to long Bitcoin and get a 2.6R? Like let's assume you long Bitcoin here to 70.
Your stop to get 2.6R has to be way tight. Like you got to assume it's just going to rip from here. That same $1,000.
You can get 2.6K to win, right? I guess this would be a 1.6R.
Excuse me. So your stop could go here.
You get your money plus 1.6. But still, that's a tight stop. You're assuming Bitcoin just goes up from here to 70.
So, a $1,000 risk on this setup is the same as taking this poly market bet. Now, the reason there's more juice on the poly market bet is because here your risk is price doing this.
Then you're stopped out. The polyarket trade doesn't have a pricebased stop. It has a timebased stop. So, as we get closer to July 31st, the closer we are to 70K, the more value this contract will have. You'll be able to sell in profit.
But if we aren't at 70K, you know, and it's now July 25th, this thing's going to go down. So, one is a price-based invalidation, one is a timebased invalidation. But these are interesting ways that you can use Poly Market versus trading the chart itself. You can also do both.
You got to use code main at checkout.
Just type it in the box.
There's a little box that you select saying that you have an affiliate code and you just type in code main. It's that easy.
Get your boy some referral clicks for the higherups over there. Breakout, the big boys.
So, this didn't have a community note when we first looked at it. Um, now it does. The IRS is to take a cut of Spain's $50 million World Cup prize through taxes on tournament income earned in the US. Now, I I don't believe this is true, and this seems to say that like they're going to get taxed in Spain, not in the US. But, Uncle Sam does have a very long dick, and he will get his money while he can. The USA is one of the only countries, I believe, with global taxation. As long as you have a US passport, you owe money to Uncle Sam. Canada, not much better. Um, I just finished paying all of my taxes.
I got absolutely [ __ ] fisted, rearended. But I'm so glad that it's now July and I can finally start working for myself because the first six to seven months of the year, I pay tax to Mark Carney, to the CRA, to the government.
That's who I'm working for because I pay more than half of my income. That's not even including GST, PST, oil and gas, alcohol tax. I just mean an income tax.
I pay more than half of my income in tax to the government. So for the first six to seven months of the year, all the money I make effectively goes to the government, but July through January, all that money I make, I get to keep it.
I just get my little bit of breadcrumb, my little breadcrumb that they leave for me. They say, "Oh, thank you." You know, they're [ __ ] full. Thanks, Trader Mine. Thanks for all that money. You're full now. You can have a little bit now to feed your family and just take care of yourself and and and afford to live.
Thank you, government, for letting me work for 12 months, but only five of those months, the money actually belongs to me. It's awesome. I should have moved to Dubai. I should have moved to Dubai.
I should have moved to Singapore. I should have moved to [ __ ] Puerto Rico or Bahamas or something. Uh but I didn't want to. I wanted to live close to family. I thought Canada was a country that, you know, wanted to win and, you know, do well and see its citizens do well. But, uh, over a large part of my money-making life, which has been the last, you know, 10 to 15 years, um, Canada has objectively gone to absolute [ __ ] Um, so yeah, it sucks. But, uh, I don't think Spain's going to get, uh, attacked by Uncle Sam, but they will get anally penetrated by their local government. Spain has inordinately high taxes as well.
Singapore fan here. I'm jealous, bro.
It's too late for me now because I'm so entrenched in Canada. Um like I would have to pay exit tax to even leave.
So, it's like I'm just kind of I'm cooked no matter what.
Uh Justin, and now if you're a kick-ass tax attorney in Canada and you've got some hot alpha for me that you can let me know being like, "Hey, do this and and don't pay exit tax." I'll [ __ ] leave here tomorrow. Um London Stock Exchange to launch roundthe-clock trading to compete with 247 crypto platforms. This is [ __ ] huge. Um I've said this consistently over streams. I think one of the coolest things that we're seeing happen in crypto is everything going on change. the uh the ubiquitous acceptance that PERPS are the apex financial instrument 247 365 perpetual contracts. No expiry, no rollover, no [ __ ] 247 trading and crypto is kind of the progenator of that. Um I think that that's the best part. Nate hit it on the head here. uh they're launching round clock trading.
Another example of Tradfi bending the need to expectations set by crypto. I don't know if it's expectations or more just that people are realizing what we do here in crypto with perpetual contracts 247 is better. It's simply better. Um you can trade 247 real-time settlement, easier access, all that stuff. I do believe that this is going to be even more ammunition in the chamber for regulators saying, "Listen, if everything's going on chain, everything's going 247, companies like Hyperlid are going to have to figure out um KYC and stuff quickly to compete because they're going to want to be able to offer their services. They're going to be forced to if they want to operate in America, Canada, the UK, um they're going to have to have KYC rails. So, we'll see how that regulatory piece solves. But this is all This to me is the most bullish [ __ ] happening in crypto. [ __ ] meme coins quite respectively uh respectfully. Yes, I get them.
Lottery ticket. You want to get rich? I hope that you do. But this idea that directing people to memecoins is the smart thing to do, getting them into crypto where they've already been onboarded by the [ __ ] president and gotten [ __ ] annihilated. Thank you, President Trump. So much winning. This idea that that's the way to onboard the masses through get-richqu meme coins that likely are going to annihilate them. This is what's cool about crypto perpetuals. Everything going on chain.
This is cool.
Um, can't help but dunk on my fellow bald brother Jim Kramer. One of the best counter signals in the world. Um, miserable close, miserable market for the moment. Watch tonight. Uh, this is the pico low like on equities, on crypto, on everything. He tweeted that [ __ ] right here. Everything up the next day. Many of these big AI memory semiplays, some of them are up double digits. Um, this is the OG counter signal. There's no one who does it better than Jim Kramer, but what I can say is someone who's been online sharing thoughts on the markets for a long time. We all get got um the market humbles all, but this guy's hit rate is impressive. And then it looks like he hurt his leg.
I mean, like, imagine imagine being like horrible clothes. The market's [ __ ] right?
Like where is this? Can we find this? He tweets a lot, dude. I got to step up my game, dude. Like, have I even tweeted today? I've tweeted twice.
Jim Kramer's tweeted about 30 times.
Anom tweeted, I think, 300 times today.
I got to step it up. Uh like miserable clothes, right?
And then literally hours later, he's like, "Things look good. We're fired up.
Dell is gonna do well.
So, I mean, I think obviously this is like like is he watching the singular day eb and flows of the market? I think a lot of people see this and think he's saying, "Oh, it's all over." Maybe he is, but it seems like he's watching things daily because, you know, today things went up and now he's saying, "Hey, things are good now." But OG counter indicator. There's nobody better than Jim Kramer.
So saw this today. Multicoin ends up nuking hype under 40. I'm a full port.
So a lot of people see this, right? And they assume because they unstake Hyperlid, it means that they're going to sell. Now I hope that they do because just like Zir here, I want to buy Hyperlid lower. I want to buy Hyperlid, you know, sub 50 in the 40s even. and he's saying, "Hey, if they unstake 120 million of Hyperlid to sell, maybe that will give us an entry." I completely agree with this. If they nuke it and it goes under 40, I'm full porting, too.
I'm with you, bro. Um, but I think a lot of people see stuff like this and assume that they're going to sell. So, Multicoin released a base case analysis for Hyperlid of 319 per token saying 20x multiple on earnings. Barecase 20x multiple on weaker earnings. bolt case 20x multiple on crazy earnings that would impute these token levels. We're at 60 right now. So even their bare case is almost a 2x from current prices. They're like, "Oh my god, they unstaked it. They're going to full stack." Not necessarily.
Just because they unstaked it, it doesn't mean they're going to sell. And if they do sell, I think like Zir and Crypto Kool-Aid here or Kool-Aid Crypto, um it's a good buy. It's a good long opportunity.
So, study PA around previous big hype on locks. Events like these oftent times set up great options trades. Really like adding some all-time high break 75 hype calls for September and de and December expireies.
Interesting take. Interesting take.
Speaking of unlocks, you ever want to feel small about crypto? Space X is about to have one of the largest share unlocks ever with up to 116 billion in stock becoming for sale next month. Some of that includes your boy here who is in the IPO. Now, everyone is clowning SpaceX. I think this was predictable like most of us were expecting pump on IPO and then some sort of selloff.
There's people taking profit, right?
There's people who are going to be taking profit once this thing launched.
Um, so a lot of people have asked me to analyze this, look at it, try and figure out what it's going to do. I have no interest in touching this. I believe in SpaceX long term. I believe in Elon longterm. I'm an Elon bull. I'm going to wait for this to form some structure right now. There's nothing tradable here for me. And I'm going to wait for some of these unlocks to happen so we can actually figure out what is the fair market value of this thing. It's way too early to tell. and then start building a case around that. Uh because maybe you're going to be able to buy this thing, you know, sub 100. If you remember when the IPO happened, we talked about how many of these big tech IPOs trade lower than 80 plus percent, 50 to 80% off of their IPO price in the first year. This proved to be no different.
So, I'll wrap it up here, guys. We're two hours in. This one went fast. I don't know what happened, but I got to go to the gym real quick. We got 10 days left in the combo cup here. 50K in daily bonuses paid out to the top combo trades on Poly Market. Ends in 10 days. If you want to support your boy, go here, click this [ __ ] link, and start gambling a ton of money on Poly Market to help me.
Help me help you. I got to keep the lights on on in here. Poly Market is the stream sponsor. So, if you want to support your boy, go click this link a thousand times today. Just click it a thousand times and then go deposit a bunch of money and start ripping on bets like where is LeBron James going to end next.
Listen, my heart is Miami.
No, sorry. My heart is Cleveland. Excuse me, because I would love to see it be like a homecoming. End his career in Cleveland. It's where it started. He brought them a chip. It'd be great to see him come back there. Also, his longest tenure team, crazily enough, is the Lakers at this point. He's been with the Lakers longer than he was with Cleveland in a single stint. So, going back there, finishing with Cleveland, I think that's poetic. Now, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, LeBron James, is that a championship team? I don't know. I don't know. Could he go to Miami? Return to South Beach. Pair up with Giannis.
Giannis and LeBron. It's pretty powerful opportunity there. Something I would love to see is Golden State, like reliving the Olympics. Him and Curry, they've had so many battles. LeBron's big into golf now. They got great golf in San Francisco. They got great in the Bay Area. They got great golf in Miami.
I don't know about Cleveland, but pair up with Curry and LeBron's always done best when he has good shooters around him that he can pass to. It's always been his kryptonite. When he's got no one he can dish to, he can hit shots, he's [ __ ] She had Ray Allen right in Miami.
Other role players, Mike Miller in Cleveland, Kyrie, Kevin Love. We're hitting threes.
Um, so I would like Golden State. I would I'd be happy with any three of these. I think if he wants to win a chip, probably Miami is his best bet than these two, second and third. I don't really see it in Cleveland, in Philly. I don't know. I would love to see one of these three. Golden State I think would be the most entertaining though. Anyways guys, that's all I got.
If you want to support your boy, you know what to do.
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