CARDANO ADA - Death Cross Approaching? Rallied ~100% Last Time! Exchange Supply Record Low!

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:01]So, we are about to see something take place for ADA that is only happened one time throughout history. And coincidentally enough, the last time this took place was deep into a bear market. Actually happened at a similar price point to where we're at now, and surprisingly, it actually kicked off an almost 100% rally to the upside. Are we about to see something very similar take place this time? We're going to have a discussion about that in this video, but we're also going to look at a few things that have actually very quietly continued to improve, and people might be surprised by this. So, if you're new or haven't already, make sure you like, comment, subscribe, show your support for the channel down below. Now, >> [clears throat] >> it's still very early on for the day. I care less about where price is at today because we're zoomed way out. We're looking at the weekly charts. This is actually looking at uh from last bear market through this last bull market we went through all the way to the bear market now. And you guys can see, you know, we're we're down in some prices that we haven't seen since the last bear market cycle. Go figure, because we're in a bear market, right? And obviously, we're still waiting to see, you know, do [clears throat] we see lower lows? Is the bottom in? Those are questions that I think are going to be answered in very short order, probably like I've talked about within the next 2 months. Uh we're going to know.

[00:01:14]Was was that it? Is this a shorter bear market? Is there enough supply gone, and is there enough demand to start moving us in a different direction than what we've seen historically speaking? Now, I want to hone up in on this first of all, because what we're seeing right now, or what we're about to see, is actually a death cross, right? Now, people hear the word death cross, or the words death cross, and they immediately think, oh, it means more downside, it means bad prices ahead. A lot of times, it actually is the exact opposite. It means you have either set a bottom, or are very close to a bottom before you start to change direction. Coincidentally enough, the last time we saw this take place on the weekly chart, our 50-week moving average crossing our 200-week moving average, was all the way back in 2018.

[00:02:00]December of 2022 after we saw significant downside for ADA, coming down from those highs of, you know, $3 and $0.10, $0.15, whatever it was, all the way down to the local lows of $0.24.

[00:02:14]Coincidentally enough, very close to where we're at in terms of price right now. But, that drop, that aggressive drop to downside, immediately stopped, flipped around, and moved the opposite direction with weekly candles of 19%, uh 17%, and even further, and I'll get to that in a moment. But, this cross actually marked the local bottom, where ADA was allowed to basically bottom down on a wick and actually run, what, 90 91%, right? 92%, somewhere in that range. So, almost a 100% rally in the middle of a bear market. Now, am I saying this is going to happen the exact same way? No, not at all.

[00:02:50]Doesn't mean that's going to happen by any means, right? Uh history doesn't necessarily dictate the future. Uh some people think it does, but it doesn't, right?

[00:02:59]Now, coincidentally enough, we were very close to uh the oversold range.

[00:03:03]Actually, I think we just hit into the oversold range at that point in 2022.

[00:03:08]We're seeing something very similar right now. We actually hit the oversold range, the fastest uh fastest race down we've seen in history. We still hang around the bottom right there. Uh so, could this in fact be us gearing up for a potential big pivot in the crypto market? It's very possible, right? Um I will say that the fundamentals around the crypto space have been improving.

[00:03:30]Liquidity's been moving up. Whales have been accumulating. Yes, the institutional flows have obviously been uh negative, like we talked about in the earlier video today, um for a couple weeks here. But, still, what's interesting is you're watching the whales, the long-term holders, make moves that would typically dictate a a move it opposite of what we've seen here is coming. Now, we still need to see BTC hold structure. We've obviously talked about what BTC's got going on here that it needs to hold, you know, in this ascending channel, this bear flag that it's building. It probably should bounce off of this 100-day moving average.

[00:04:06]Obviously, we're still waiting for further news surrounding clarity act voting. We're still waiting to see if the US and Iran do finally come to an agreement and calm things down there. We're waiting for obviously the FUD now surrounding strategy to quiet down. I think it'll be quieted down very quickly this time.

[00:04:23]Won't drag on like it did it at at prior sessions.

[00:04:27]But, [clears throat] we're also at the same time seeing very good steps being made forward behind the scenes. I thought this was a good post by Cardanians. He said, "Ada Cardano TVL has actually been consistently growing over the past 7 months. Since September, it's grown from 388 million Ada to 532 million Ada. That's a 37% increase.

[00:04:49]Pretty impressive considering the current state of the crypto markets."

[00:04:51]And I would agree. Typically, these are not DeFi times in crypto. Typically, you see DeFi contraction rather than DeFi expansion. But, that that is a move worth noting, right? Now, what we're also seeing here, this was actually meant to be [clears throat] kind of a I forget I don't even know how what to call it. He's basically trying to, you know, trash this post saying, "LMAO."

[00:05:14]Laughing at but yet coincidentally enough, I said coincidentally a crap ton of times in this video. Let me rewind.

[00:05:21]Tries to post this as, "Oh, this isn't something good that's taking place."

[00:05:25]Showing token holders just showed a new all-time high in terms of of Ada holders. We're watching the ecosystem continue to grow. At the same time, we're watching the available supply in the market continue to drop.

[00:05:40]And obviously, we've talked about exchange supply a ton. It actually went back and I did the math on this, which I'll I'll you guys in just a moment if this wants to load here. You guys can see this week so far has been a bunch of red days, a bunch of exchange outflow days, not really that surprising. The weekly exchange flows have been red for a very long period of time. And just taking a look at 2026 here in general, a year of trash, right? A year where ADA, if we take a look at it now, I want to go to the 12-month. You guys can see we're down 30% on the year, right? At the same time, we've also seen 657 million ADA removed from exchanges.

[00:06:17]That's not a small amount by any means.

[00:06:20]And that's following the obviously, like I've said, I've done the math on this manually for quite some time. It's following the billions and billions of ADA that has continued to be removed off of exchanges almost week after week after week. So, you're watching supply just continue to dwindle. You're watching the whales continue to accumulate. You're watching conviction hold its ground for now. And hopefully hopefully it continues to grow. I saw a comment earlier today saying ADA bottom's in and very possible it it could be, right?

[00:06:50]That wick down in February could have been it for all coins. Um again, we should know in in very short order if that's the case or not. Uh but something I'll just kind of loop back here for just a moment. You know, if we're seeing very similar things uh to what we saw last bear market when ADA had this death cross, when we saw ADA having its local bottom and rally to the upside, some sort of relief rally or counter-trend rally. We're also seeing this with way way less available supply in the crypto market, right? Way more liquidity available in the crypto market. So, we'll obviously see what happens here, but I thought that was interesting. I thought it was worth noting. I want to hear you guys' thoughts. Do you think this is actually a moment where ADA can in fact pivot and rally again? Do you think we will see more downside? Are you thinking these these fundamentals um don't mean anything? But have a great day. Show your love below. Catch you guys in the next one. Take care.