Massive Rate Hike?🚀Technical Analysis @EvanAldo

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Rate hikes incoming. Could it be huge?

[00:00:02]Today we'll break it all down for you.

[00:00:04]We're going to have a trader on. You don't want to miss it. I want to thank our sponsor today and of course that is Uphold. If you are holding crypto right now and not earning rewards, you're essentially leaving money on the table.

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[00:00:32]It's the perfect setup for anyone who wants to grow their holdings without losing their exit strategy. Download the Uphold app today and try it for yourself. Uh let's get started. I want to lead off here with a Tom Lee clip where he breaks down this three-phase market because we are seeing the S&P skyrocket. Take a look.

[00:00:52]You're calling for a three-phase market still. Explain to our viewers again what what what that means >> is we would rally towards 7,300 initially. Now we're above that, but I think >> almost 76.

[00:01:05]>> Yeah. And I think we can get to maybe 77, as high as 77, but I think then we're going to digest a lot of things until October. And that's a new Fed share. It's the energy shock. And the third is the IPOs of SpaceX opening an anthropic that when the unlocks happen that's a lot of extra supply. So I think that could pressure stocks in a way that feels like a bare market.

[00:01:31]>> All right. So very interesting statements there in terms of this three-phase. Uh timing is going to be very similar. He also talked a little bit about that we are going to see essentially a face melter in 2027. Uh I'm going to break this down with Evan Aldo. We've got we're actually going to talk about all of those. So Evan, how are you man?

[00:01:48]>> I'm doing fantastic Paul. Always a pleasure talking.

[00:01:51]>> Nice to see you.

[00:01:52]>> Yeah, nice to see you. Hey, we got a potential here. Fed rate hikes in 2026.

[00:01:58]Uh it is rising. We are sitting at right at 32% right now before uh Kevin Walsh does his first FOMC meeting, if in fact we have FOMC meetings anymore. Who knows what's going to happen during the Fed.

[00:02:11]>> But what's your position right now? Do you feel like we're going to see the hike or do you feel we'll see a pause?

[00:02:15]You know, I I have the more optimistic path. When I look at the charts, it looks like yields are going to head down. I think it's highly unlikely you're going to see a hike. I think the moment you get a 5% pullback from the S&P 500, that's going to kind of end any speculation of a hike. I also think Iran is obviously coming to a close, I think that's going to end any speculation of a of a hike. It's probably going to be a long pause. Maybe, just maybe, you can get a cut before midterms. I wouldn't even rule that out. So, yeah.

[00:02:42]>> Interesting. A cut before midterms.

[00:02:44]Evan, all >> if the S&P 500 comes down a little bit, but maybe I'm being >> adjust. Well, that's kind of like what uh Tom was talking about is that we could see a bump in up to July, then a a bit of a a step back in the S&P and then after midterms, a run on this three-phase. Uh, of course, one of the key things that would have to happen here is the Iranian deal. You've got now Trump announcing a proposed term on the US Iranian deal. A few key things in here. Uh they're talking about the mines. They're talking about coordinating mine removal. Uh enriched uranium. All of this has to be destroyed and of course um by the US and China now in on this. So that's new. Then of course you have Iran coming and firing back according to BRICS news saying no it's just it you know this is what he wants but it's not reality which is going to be interesting. I think at some point there's got to be an offramp here.

[00:03:40]All of this is going to get a little bit crazy. And then of course you've got uh situations right now with Trump made so much fun of Obama giving Iranians cash and of course this was talking about the proposed peace deal right now with 300 billion reconstruction fund going in. So I don't know man this is getting crazy uh in terms of how this plays out. Do you think we get out of Iran before let's say July? That's in the next 30 days. You know, it's tough to say. I mean, that I think that may be a little bit too soon, but I'd say before the end of August could be a good goal. I think, you know, you're going to see more negotiations. Um, you know, price gets factored in quickly. So, I I would say very likely within two months. I would say that question you asked is probably a 50/50. That's tough. Yeah. Maybe.

[00:04:25]>> Yeah.

[00:04:26]>> I think it's going to be a little bit longer unless something really changes in terms of uh the Iranians mindset on how they want to exit this. And of course, this is all about winning too for Trump. Mhm.

[00:04:37]>> Speaking of that, we've started to see an issue around Bitcoin and Bitcoin, of course, did a little bit of a bump here.

[00:04:43]It erased some losses, reclaimed 74 uh at the same time that this announcement was going on. We'll probably see this go another bounce down and bounce up again as a lot of this seems to be correlated to both energy and what's happening in Iran. When you chart this right now in the near term, if you gave me a price target for Bitcoin into July, so here we are, end of May, all of June, where am I at in July?

[00:05:12]>> So, I would stay a bit more on the bare side for now. As long as we stay kind of below 78 79K, I would lean more towards the bare side. If you look at where your money flow is going right here, generally downward on your two week and that's generally a bearish pattern.

[00:05:28]Everything's kind of coming down. You're losing momentum right here. Same thing on the weekly. This looks pretty bad as well. You're coming down with money flow. And I think this is going to look like how a lot of bare markets have looked where this is your weekly 200 SMA. So, and it's cool that you asked about July because, you know, it's looking like something like this, maybe mid60s for some type of double bottom.

[00:05:48]In every single bare market, we've bottomed around this kind of area. So, yeah, I think that you may come up a little bit in the short term, but I think you're generally as of right now, as long as you stay below these levels like 77, 78, you're probably more in a bare trend in my opinion for the next month only, next month, two months, you know, the summer, that area.

[00:06:08]>> All right, so bare trend on Bitcoin. One thing that could really start to spiral this down is an actual rate hike. I want to go to a clip here because there there is some arguments out there and some analysis that maybe it's bigger than what people are expecting. Take a look.

[00:06:25]>> Why at least 100 basis points?

[00:06:27]>> Because if you look at core inflation from where it was before we attacked Iran, it's going to be up at least 100 basis points. So in simple basic math, your real interest rate has collapsed 100. You'd want to offset that by raising the funds rate at least by that amount. How urgent is your call for at least a hundred basis points? In other words, if the Fed stands pat, which it might very well do for the next couple of meetings, is that going to be a policy mistake looking in the rearview mirror?

[00:06:56]>> Maybe. It's hard to say because at some point you could make the argument that Kevin Worsh is going to make, which I understand, which is this we're going to increase the supply side of the economy.

[00:07:06]Uh shift that aggregate supply curve down and to the right. That will increase growth and lower inflation.

[00:07:11]That that that's a legitimate forecast.

[00:07:13]They could wait in the short term because market-based expectations, inflation expectations are contained and you haven't seen an acceleration in wage growth. But Melissa, if either of those two developments change, there's going to be tremendous pressure on the Fed to hike as soon as September. I think Kevin Worsh will do a very good job and we'll push back against it. But if an if the economy is growing reasonably well and inflation's moving further away from target, why wouldn't he be hiking?

[00:07:39]>> Okay, so I'm going to go on record. I don't think he's going to do it. I don't think he's going to pull the trigger.

[00:07:44]Um, even though US inflation is running hot, you look at all the numbers. I get it. Everybody says this all the time, but in reality, I think it's still a price to measure situation. And when you consider that and potentially all of the macro environments loosening up is primarily going to be energy. This could change things a little bit. And of course I I guess the question right now if we got a 100 basis point rate hike where would you put Bitcoin?

[00:08:15]>> Oh man I mean that's first of all I think it's so highly unlikely you would get a 100 base you know rate hike. I think the price is already starting to factor in maybe one rate hike with all this fear you know >> I mean 100 basis points that would be a nightmare. Probably somewhere in the 50s I don't know high 40s but I that's not going to happen. Highly unlikely.

[00:08:32]>> All right. There you go. I like it. I'm on your side. I don't think it's it's going to happen at all. Another person I'm on the side of is Clarity. Uh but at the same time, we're looking at some, you know, I would say a little bit more pressure of getting it through. Next window for digital asset legislation after Congress is 2030.

[00:08:51]Until then, developers remain exposed.

[00:08:54]No legal protection. I don't know. this maybe this is just a little bit of um you know grandstanding to a certain extent but I think with with what Lumus is trying to do you think what's your percentage on clarity right now >> I I think 60 40 you know 65 35 >> yeah I I think it's a good bet um I think in all likelihood though they should be able to do it I don't see why they can't I mean >> um >> there's so many things that are sticking points I think the the concern right now, at least I have, is going to be ethics. Whether they will get it, you know, get the Dem or the Republicans in a position where they'll, you know, at least reposition on ethics. The other thing that could actually be an interesting is CBDC's of how that plays out because, of course, Besson is all out there. We're not going to have it.

[00:09:44]You know, we're going to get this through. And you have Besson out there and Patrick Whit both really pushing hard to try to get this through. maybe get it across the line or something else is uh out there for sure. Let's jump over to Ethereum. Joseph Shalom. Uh we had him on the show not too long ago and this gets into some of the dat it's it's a clip on him talking about the burned thesis and then I want to ask you where the ETH chart flows if this happens.

[00:10:13]Take a look.

[00:10:14]>> What is the thesis for ETH the asset and why is you know Ethereum not ETH? Why is that the incorrect take here?

[00:10:21]>> Yeah, I think the it's the former, but we generally believe we're going to see step function increases from stable coins, tokenization, and Aentic that will create that demand that will trigger the burn. And when that happens and you start seeing 10x, 20x, 50x or more transactions on Ethereum and the L2s, you're going to end up needing Ether as that trustwware to secure the transaction. All right. So, he is very bullish for obvious reasons. One of the large stats out there he's in charge of.

[00:10:55]Uh he's in alignment with Tom Lee uh with what BMR is doing. You look at that and where ETH is right now, which is struggling.

[00:11:05]Would you consider this if the thesis plays out, I do you think we would see that kind of all-time high runup here on on Ethereum?

[00:11:13]>> You know, it it's there's a case to be made for it. Um, so there there's definitely a case to be made for it. The thing is though, right now it does, you know, you're you're at such a big decision point right here right around 2,000. You know, your two week looks really bad. However, sometimes you get lucky with this. If you look right here where we went into the red for the money flow lost momentum, it was actually a nice bottom in September of 20 2023. So, there's that. That's the kind of Hail Mary right there. Um, if I had to guess here, I mean, you're kind of losing this point. Like, it it's not looking that great at the moment, potentially dropping down to 1,600. Uh, these kind of areas. Maybe there's some hope at,900. There was a lot of capitulation.

[00:11:54]So, you know, I think if you could hold these lows, you know, get some more momentum there on some of, you know, these indicators, um, and kind of hold these areas and break back above 2100, I would get much more optimistic and potentially get a position in Ethereum.

[00:12:07]Right now I'm just solely um kind of in bit mainly in Bitcoin right now. But you know when you look at ETH versus Bitcoin as well, we did with this this was where the capitulation happened I believe the other day. A lot of people capitulated.

[00:12:18]You get a nice jump up on your two-day.

[00:12:20]So I think it's early but if you were to hold kind of this area and show some more momentum and the thing I want to see on this is breaking back above the lows from February because it's not good that we lost these lows from February right here. These areas we didn't want to lose this. we want to see us reclaim this and hold this and then I'd be much more open to that, you know, that trajectory of getting to the new all-time high and ethforming Bitcoin.

[00:12:43]But until then, I think you want to be very cautious um on Ethereum. Last thing I'll say quickly is this weekly, this is what I'm looking at this to go from red to green. This is a big momentum shift that could potentially happen sometime later summer and I think that could be a potentially really good buy for ETH and uh Bitmine.

[00:13:01]All right. So, Evan, when did you become so bearish on ETH? Because you've been bullish on ETH almost the entire year.

[00:13:09]Did Did you just flip the Did was it David Hoffman that did it for you? Was it the bank?

[00:13:14]>> The main thing Yeah, I mean it's a great question, Paul. The main thing is just losing momentum here. So, I mean, I I just I'm a more of a moment just losing this low. I was bullish and I got into ETH over here and we went up and then we went back down. and I kind of roundt tripped it and I got out at these areas kind of at the break even point against my Bitcoin holdings. So, I just don't want to hold, you know what I mean? I don't want to hold it if it's just going to keep bleeding, you know, against Bitcoin. But, I'll gladly get back in if you rec claim these areas and show more momentum. You know, that's kind of my main strategy as a macro allocation swing trader.

[00:13:47]>> Let's jump over to a big IPO coming up.

[00:13:49]Uh SpaceX now targeting a valuation of 1.8 trillion in its IPO according to people out there talking about this. So I maybe it hits it or not. What what amazed me was the fact that they did this right here. They waved the profitability rule uh for SpaceX to basically go for indices now uh to be able to go into ETFs, other funds out there. This is a big deal. This is a big deal. What what happens when SpaceX launches and we do see a runup on this?

[00:14:20]Would you invest in SpaceX right now?

[00:14:21]the way it's looking.

[00:14:23]>> You know, the the thing with a lot of these IPOs is they're fun in the beginning because you always get a runup when it first kind of goes public. So, yeah, usually you can get a little runup and then a lot of the people that have been holding, you know, accredit investors that have been holding for many years, they dump it. This is I'm not saying this is going to happen, but a lot of times you see this happen, then you see like a 6 to 12 month bare market, 6 to 8month bare market. So, I think if I had to guess, again, this is just speculation. If I had to guess, the real good time to buy SpaceX will probably be early next year, later this year. That's where I think would be a gold past the IPO entry.

[00:14:56]>> Uh let's go to a clip real quick cuz this is talking about how this pump for SpaceX might be deliberate. Take a look.

[00:15:03]>> The interesting nuance with regards to SpaceX is not that it's going to sell off post IPO if we are expecting that as our base case. It's the fact that Tesla's SpaceX merger is starting to become priced in because of the ownership stake. And I know Elon's targets of wanting to have over 20 to 25% ownership in Tesla to be able to influence the direction that the company goes. I think he controls like 80% of the voting power in SpaceX. The pumping of SpaceX, the $2 trillion valuation, I think is deliberate so that they can have leverage to do the merger of equals. At this point, SpaceX is even bigger than Tesla, which would thereby give Elon even more control. Otherwise, Elon will try to rush through as quickly as possible after IPO so as to capitalize on that momentum because if you have a big fade out of the stock, he loses some of that leverage. And so, it behooves him to be as quick as possible so that SpaceX maintains a higher market cap than Tesla, maintains the negotiating leverage there, and ultimately Elon will have more control when they do merge. So, I think it's going to be IPO immediately leading into merger conversations or rumors shortly thereafter, days, not months.

[00:16:04]I'm in agreement. I think they will merge. Um I don't know if it'll be that fast, but if it is, I mean, that would be wow. Would you be owning Tesla right now in that kind of condition?

[00:16:15]>> Yeah, you know, Tesla's interesting and I think it could be somewhat attractive.

[00:16:18]Um the first thing I'll say about this is I mean, inevitably this is going to hit 600 and then probably eventually 900, you know, by the end of this decade. You know, if you can hold this, you'll get a good return. I think that's highly highly likely. You'll eventually break upward. I mean shortterm, sure you could dillydally around, maybe come back to, you know, 390 or something. It's hard to say, but Tesla versus because, you know, obviously if you're buying Tesla, you want to outperform the NASDAQ. This has been lackluster against the NASDAQ for, you know, a while now, really since, you know, 2020, 2021 here.

[00:16:48]I think you're hitting a pretty decent area at this point. Um, and I think you might see a jump against your NASDAQ right now. So, I think Tesla's Tesla is an attractive buy as long as you kind of hold, you know, these lows against the NASDAQ from April of this year. So, I like Tesla. Yeah.

[00:17:04]>> Okay. There you go. Liking Tesla. What would you say probability of the merger would be? Are you are you as confident as I am or are you more on the >> Yeah, I mean it it probably Yeah. I mean 70 80, you know, it's hard to say, but yeah, I think what you said makes sense.

[00:17:21]It'll probably merge. Yeah.

[00:17:22]>> Yeah.

[00:17:22]>> Yeah. Uh Sailor tweets out uh CFTC guidance advances the Bitcoin capital markets. This is talking about their 247 uh Bitcoin collateral on per futures.

[00:17:33]This changes the game maybe for micro strategy strategy in general. Would you what about strategy right now Evan? Is this still an investment play that you would go with or are you looking for an entry on strategy?

[00:17:47]I think strategy is pretty attractive right now at these prices at around 150 is pretty attractive. You you definitely could come back down. Like if I had to guess here, I would probably tell you that we'd come back down to like 120 something, but I still think it's a pretty attractive buy, you know, right around 150. Your momentum's coming up, your money flow momentum's coming up on your 2-day right here. It could be a little premature. Maybe wait a month.

[00:18:09]That would probably be a really good entry if I had to guess here. Strategy, I mean, the number one thing we're trying to do with strategy is obviously outperform Bitcoin. If you look at strategy versus Bitcoin, I think if I had to, you know, make an estimate here, I think the the the bottom for strategy versus Bitcoin was February. Maybe in the next month you come back down to somewhere over here, but I think you're going to generally make higher lows on this chart as you did, you know, all the way from 2022 to 2024. So, I think you got at least a year to two years of, you know, probably two years of strategy upperforming Bitcoin. So, yeah, I think it's a good buy.

[00:18:42]>> All right, there you go. long-term hold on strategy for that one. Hyperlid has been absolutely stellar on the charts.

[00:18:50]Uh there's some reasons now. We saw another pump on Hyperlid the and for this reason right here, the CFTC's actions, approval of the first US listed per derivative contract. So this of course was clarified and now we have Hyperlid actually showing it on the chart itself. when you consider hyperlid right now and where it is today. I want to go to the chart real quick because I'm going to show the gauian uh trail on this that to kind of show you this is the only pretty much the only chart that has been in the green. If you look at let's just go down through them. If you look at Bitcoin not performing obviously ETH same situation Salana XRP even Avalanche going into uh what we're talking about here in terms of performance hype how long before this thing turns around or do you think this continues to track up? I mean after you know kind of really going into the stratosphere at around $66 right now. Yeah, there's, you know, there's always this saying, I'm sure you've heard, Paul, there's always a bull market somewhere. This has been the the bull market as as Bitcoin has gone down. I mean, it's breaking upward.

[00:20:01]Your your next major target is $80. I'm not seeing any major reason to believe it's going to, you know, dump down, you know, anytime soon. So, if I had to, you know, if I had to make an estimation here, probably 80 bucks does look likely. Um, you know, I do think if Bitcoin really tanks and loses 70k soon, you know, this probably would go down, too. But as of right now, it seems like you're probably going to hold 58 57 and break upward to 80. I would get more bearish if you I would say lost 56, but you know, right now your momentum's still there. I don't think there's a reason to believe this is going to correct just yet. You're probably going you're probably going 80. So, yeah.

[00:20:39]>> Well, and you have to remember this has been uh really marketed heavily by Bitwise. Bitwise has uh talked about it.

[00:20:46]We've talked about it with Matt before.

[00:20:48]They're out there doing a full podcast blitz right now on it. So, it's getting more exposure to in institutional and then you have all these news drops and of course per is, you know, absolutely exploding. The real question is does Salana get into a position where they can compete on perpetuals? That'll be the question right there. And if you just look at the hype data right there, it's the only one that's starting to perform right there uh right now. That's crazy. Wow.

[00:21:15]>> Yeah. Yeah. It's nuts right now. When you look at Salana though, I want to go in on Salana. And when you look at the Salana chart and you think about all of the things that are happening with Soul right now in terms of perpetuals especially, where would you put Salana at the end of the year right now?

[00:21:37]>> Oh man, that's a great question. I mean, I think that Salana, let's map this out.

[00:21:41]So I think there's you know Salana is probably going to come back to 76 you know in the next month two months I would guess there's a possibility could hold here sure or maybe even scare a lot of people away 74 but end of year I think there's a good shot you know you come down in June July correct a bit end of year I do think you know September October 90 bucks I would hope for maybe even 100 >> pulling it back up okay >> um yeah I think you know I it could break upward I mean it's hard to say that you could if Bitcoin goes up to like 90k which I think it I could see 110, you know, some area like that, you know, end of year. So, >> all right. Even with this news, I mean, you've got Kowi launching per futures now in the US. Uh, this is, of course, all going to be tied into Salana. This is big, don't you think?

[00:22:25]>> It it could go higher. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it it could go well it, you know, I mean, your technical target, you know, from a technical perspective, you would have your technical target by end of year would be okay. 120. Yeah. I mean, you know, looking at this some more 120, I would say. I don't know about much higher. or how far back does that go in terms of that uh selloff that happened with Salana back in >> the selloff? Oh, from from here from FE.

[00:22:48]Yeah, that's 67. So, it'd be a double from there, you know, somewhere something like that.

[00:22:53]>> You do have a trend line. I mean, yeah, I it could go higher, man. I mean, it's tough to say. I mean, 130, you know, if you're trading on fundamentals, it would give you higher numbers than technicals, I would say.

[00:23:03]>> Yeah. Is there a window? Are you invested in Salana right now? Are you buying in? Not at the moment, but I'm I'm getting close because I want to, you know, I have Bitcoin and I want to really have a good reason to convert my Bitcoin over to Salana. And obviously, you know, I want to see a little bit more momentum here. Right now, it still keeps bleeding against Bitcoin. But if we can break above this area and show some more momentum against Bitcoin, you know, have things look a lot better on the weekly here, then I would I would definitely get pick up some salada. As of right now, I'm still waiting, but I'll get in. Don't worry.

[00:23:35]>> I'll get in. Don't worry. All right, man. We're going to cover this and a lot more uh next week. We've got a line of new uh guests for you guys. So, be on the lookout. A lot of new topics that I think you're going to be interested in it. If you guys want to check out Evan Aldo's YouTube channel, you can do that just by searching Evan Aldo over there.

[00:23:52]Uh doing are you still daily live or what's the the flow now of content?

[00:23:57]>> Most days are live. Try to go live around, you know, noon, midday. Get some viewers for the lives. Do pre-recorded videos a couple times a week as well.

[00:24:05]market updates and then some vlogs here and there. So, it's a fun show.

[00:24:08]>> I like it.

[00:24:09]>> Evan, thanks so much for coming in today. We appreciate it.

[00:24:12]>> Always an honor, Paul. Great talking to you.

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