Analise de abertura | CPI EUA + IPCA Brasil | Cessar fogo no radar

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:04]Hello operators, welcome! Have a great day!

[00:00:09]How are you all doing?

[00:00:12]Let's begin our market briefing.

[00:00:16]What awaits us today?

[00:00:19]Schedule it for me, okay? Most important agenda. Good morning, Ronald.

[00:00:24]Mark of Paul. The operators are arriving there.

[00:00:27][snoring] Good morning, Mauri Lima.

[00:00:32][clearing throat] My throat hurts a little bit here.

[00:00:33]Operator, you're not bothering too much, are you? But let's do that overview here. Well, today is the main event on my agenda this week, okay? Which contains data primarily related to inflation. Today we have the American CPI, and here in Brazil we have the IPCA, okay? The main backdrop today is the focus on inflation and also, you know, we can't take the tensions in the Middle East, between the United States and Iran, off the radar. Okay?

[00:01:03]So, I want to share with you an analysis I always do with the macro traders in the group, you know, we have the close macro analysis, when there are important events, like inflation events, when there are other events as well, we have a complete checklist that I give them with 21 more events on the economic calendar, which are events that impact the markets, okay? So I usually do this live stream, this class with them, in the morning, but I opened it up today and I'm going to show you how I analyze it, okay? These data that will be released today, both inflation here in Brazil and in the United States, and how we can position ourselves accordingly, okay? And especially at the market opening, try to catch any movement in the dollar index, if there's an opportunity, okay? And we also have the data from the American market there. So, to get us started here, first thing, okay? Well, the material that I provide for macro operators, I'll also share with you here, okay? It's going to be a really cool study, and it will have metrics and parameters. If the event unfolds in a certain way, that's how the market will be impacted.

[00:02:16]Eventually, we'll get there. But first, let's begin here. The first thing I want to show you is our term, "trumacro," which is our system that summarizes the global sentiment. Before we start making our trades, I try to find out how the market participants are positioning themselves. Where is the money going? For riskier assets, such as stocks, emerging markets, ETFs, or for safe-haven assets like treasuries, uh, those are the US yield curve, the dollar, which is DXY, safe-haven assets, as we usually say.

[00:02:51]So what did we identify today?

[00:02:53]Our macro thermometer system is capable of scanning the entire economy in real time, across multiple markets, okay? In several different assets, and it can also, through news that comes out in real time, indicate to us how this global sentiment factor is doing. Today, for example, this red line up here, you see it? And the green underneath already shows me that it's a feeling, right? of pessimism. Beauty? Oh, one important thing here, operators, that exchange, right, that free exchange, right, the currency of exchange, I'm saying, leave a like there, look. That's a very good point, operator Ronald. I do these live streams here, I share the analyses with you completely free of charge, so in return, you can like this video and subscribe to the channel too, okay?

[00:03:41][clearing throat] Subscribe to the channel, operators.

[00:03:44]Let's hit 3K subscribers! We started with the macro analyses there. Well, it's been a few months, right? Let's go!

[00:03:53]So, uh, as I was saying, the current situation, looking at it as a whole, is that later we'll take a tour, do that overview of the continents, okay? Europe, Asia, America, but the term itself sums it up for me: the feeling today is one of a certain pessimism. Beauty? So, we have a red line on top, a green line below, and the factor is at six, which indicates pessimism, okay? Optimism is at -8.5. And here is the thermometer's reading.

[00:04:23]It's very important because it will show me that pessimism is increasing if this dashed line here, the orange one, is pointing upwards.

[00:04:31]The more it points upwards, the more it shows me, look, pessimism is increasing, isn't it?

[00:04:38]Investor tension and sentiment are worsening, right? Pessimism is increasing. So this shows the strength of pessimism, right? Factor six, right? It's generally a moderate factor of pessimism. So we have the thermometer showing us that. So, how do we identify it? Is it really true that the global sentiment today is one of pessimism? So theoretically, what would we have? Risky assets like stock markets are falling worldwide, while safe-haven assets like the dollar are being used, right? For example, going up, gaining strength, right? Dollar against the CDY, dollar against emerging market currencies. So, we're going to give an overview here to really understand the information that our thermometer is showing us.

[00:05:24]Then I'll get into the inflation part, okay?

[00:05:27][Clearing throat] So, first thing here, folks, let's take a look at the real-time news. This system here is our Macroia operator, and this is the Macronews radar. What is the macronews radar? He gives us real-time information from sources, right?

[00:05:43][Snoring] is very reliable, right? You can see here that it's from Helters, Blom eh Bloomberg, right? Well, there's another source we use here, you know, media outlets that provide content and information about the economy, about what's happening, what can really affect prices in the market. So, if we take a look around here, let's see if there's any important news.

[00:06:05]Let me grab a tool here to freeze the moment I select, look, let's see here, from 7 am onwards, how cool, the news will be in real time, okay? In real time.

[00:06:19]Let's see if there's anything interesting here early on, showing that the outlook is possibly pessimistic for today. Since 6 AM we've been seeing, look, there was news for today. Wait a minute, let me pull it up a bit more so we can see.

[00:06:33]Oh, the first news I've seen here already!

[00:06:35]Oh, there's another one here that pops up too, look. Two news items here, look. 720 has already been released here, look.

[00:06:45]Oh, stocks fall as fragile ceasefire in the Middle East dampens appetite for risk. So, as I said, today we have inflation as the main focus, but we can't take the spotlight off what's happening in the Middle East. So, 719, a news report came out here from Hitler's talking about a fragile ceasefire, right? Oh, European stocks fell on Tuesday as expectations of a peace deal between the United States and Iran weakened, which pushed up oil prices, right? Click here to see the news article. Let me click here so we can open it, so we can take a look at it.

[00:07:26]You click here, you get the information, right?

[00:07:29]That's your headline, here's the whole story, okay? I hadn't seen that earlier, okay? Well, to justify why the term is showing a certain pessimism. He's getting real-time analysis, right? So, uh, that's what drives up oil prices and keeps investors more nervous. Do you see this word? Nervous. This here, our thermometer is identifying all of this in real time. That's why that red line is on top today, okay? That's why. So, here we've already identified, we've already confirmed, because the thermometer is showing us a feeling of pessimism. Today, here's another piece of information that I see here. Oh, this is it. Futures are falling as the rally cools down, right?

[00:08:07]The rally is being dampened by AI, and inflation data is in focus. Oh, the future of US stock indices falls on Tuesday as the rally in chip company stocks loses steam and expectations of a solution to the war fade. So you can see how important it is to anticipate market movements before you even start trading. How do you anticipate this? Knowing the overall sentiment allows you to more predictably understand the potential direction of the market today. Beauty? So, this news here is enough for me; it's already showing that what 's on the radar today are tensions in the Middle East, because there's no agreement between the United States and Iran. Okay? Inflation is the focus.

[00:08:49]So investors, as we know, are concerned about inflation data.

[00:08:52]I'll explain why to you later. And the futures, right, American and European ones are trading lower, they're losing strength due to, right, these issues in the Middle East and with inflation being the main focus for today. Have you understood the analysis so far? So, uh, look, there's even a news item here now, let me take a look. Oh, that was just a little while ago too.

[00:09:18]Oh, you just accidentally spun out of there, okay?

[00:09:23]Let me see if I can open it again here. I lost the news story I was going to share here.

[00:09:39]Oh, I found it again here. It was on CBN, I think. Oh, this one here.

[00:09:47]Iran has received an ultimatum from the United States, which will only accept an agreement if Iran proposes 14 points. There are 14 points being proposed, right? So Iran is saying that it will only accept the agreement with the United States if 14 of the proposals they submitted are accepted by the United States; otherwise, the negotiation will be fruitless. So, operators, what does this mean? The United States, right, is in Sin, the narrow pass of Hormundus, we know that it's still closed, the biggest oil supply interruption in history. So the thing is, the United States wants Iran to abandon its nuclear program, specifically its uranium program, and Iran isn't agreeing, so it 's at an impasse. And these geopolitical tensions, the closure of the Strait of Hormus, have caused a great deal of apprehension among investors, okay?

[00:10:35]We see that the United States is experiencing an absurd upward rally, it seems like they weren't paying much attention to it, but President Trump spoke yesterday about a possible escalation, right, intensifying attacks against Iran again. So that's the main focus and it's on the radar. Beauty? So, the feeling today is one of pessimism because of this whole geopolitical scenario. And today, we're going to talk about important data that will be released starting at 9 AM, beginning with the domestic market, specifically the internal market. We have a lot of important things to happen today, okay?

[00:11:13]Well, once the thermometer is taken, how many minutes does it take to update?

[00:11:18]The thermometer operator updates every 5 minutes, okay? But the player feed here updates in real time, okay? So here, every 5 minutes it will show an overall sentiment, the trail also every 5 minutes, and the flow of players, because it's one thing for us to know the possible direction of the market today. Today, there's a feeling of pessimism; it would be a fall for the stock market and a rise for the dollar. But what do we need to wait for? The local stream input is used to confirm entry, and the stream is in real time. The reading here moves in real time, okay? And we also have here the historical data of trading throughout the session, right? It's just that it's not showing up now because it's reset, right? But hey, if I pull up yesterday's date here, it shows the players' trading history, right? In real time. Okay, let me see here.

[00:12:09]Yeah, it's not pulling. There was a little bug here, okay? I'm trying to replay it here, but anyway. It was supposed to be showing here, look.

[00:12:15]Ready. Good. Live events can't have bugs, right? Oh, this was a story about dollar trading yesterday. It only sold, you see? Foreign investors have only sold in dollars since the market opened.

[00:12:25]Well, anyway. Okay, let's go, then, let's come back here. Let's go back. Okay, let's go back then, operator, as I was saying, let's go to the analysis of the IPCA, look. What do we have today? As I was mentioning, look, I'm not going to get into questions like, " What is inflation?", all of that is covered in macroeconomics, right? I'll explain, I'll break it down in detail. I've done other analyses here on PCA, right, on CPI, uh, live streams here on YouTube. I'm going to start from the point where you already have some knowledge and know what the effect of inflation is.

[00:13:02]Traders, in short, high inflation is bad for the stock markets. Beauty? Bad for the stock markets. This tends to push the dollar upwards and the stock market downwards.

[00:13:12]Lower inflation, rising stock market, falling dollar. To summarize in a very general way, that's it, okay? What do we have here today? Well, we've had this data for 45 minutes here in Brazil, okay? We had the Focus bulletin yesterday, right? What is it?

[00:13:34]Fox News Bulletin. Every Monday, an analysis is published there, by economists, on how the market is viewing inflation. And we had, okay, an increase, let me see if I can find it here, look, an increase, a forecast of increased inflation in Brazil until the end of the year. Let me see if you have yesterday's news here. Ah, the report is here. Let me see if it's going to happen.

[00:13:58]Oh, if you come here to the Central Bank's website, you won't be able to see it here, zoom in. Let's see.

[00:14:06]See this here? This here.

[00:14:09]Okay, take a look at this line here, the first line, IPCA variation. See this? Well, we've had the Focus Bulletin showing us an increase in the IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) over the last eight weeks, right? Oh, four weeks ago it was at 4.71, a week ago it was at 4.89. Yesterday, well, it's today, but it was yesterday, Bullet Fox came out saying that the market sees inflation at the end of the year at 4.91%.

[00:14:37]So that's what many economists are emphasizing, right? How is the Central Bank cutting interest rates while inflation is deteriorating? Because you only cut interest rates when inflation, you know, when inflation is under control, when it's being brought back to the center of the target. And the inflation target in Brazil is 3%. The average inflation rate. And if inflation, you know, the inflation forecast is increasing, what justifies this interest rate cut by the Central Bank? So, that's why some people in the market are already speculating that at the next meeting the Central Bank won't have room, won't have the incentive, to cut interest rates if this IPCA inflation forecast continues to rise as it has been rising.

[00:15:22]For the past nine weeks, all the readings from the bulletin have been positive. Beauty?

[00:15:27]Primarily because of Fábio, due to the Middle East, this supply shock, oil, right, global risk, because the increase in the price of oil impacts the entire economy, all countries, and it's a bottleneck for central banks, because they need to recalibrate their projections. And Brazil had a prominent place here, you see. If you look at the Selic rate, right, before, the Selic rate, the projection before, right, at the end of the year, four weeks ago, was 12.5, right, we even saw it at 11.5, that was the Selic rate at the end of the year. It's been increasing now, look, it's at 13%, right, the forecast until the end of the year. But what we see here is a forecast, and with each meeting that's happening, right, with the bulletin being released, let's go back to inflation here, mentioning that inflation here, by the end of the year, we're going to have an increase in it. So, it may be that the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle, which was previously at 0.5%, then dropped to 0.25% due to the war. So now, at 0.25, it's possible that at the next meeting the Central Bank won't be able to continue cutting interest rates to reach a rate of around 13% by the end of the year due to inflation issues. Look at the importance of inflation. That's why the merchant is looking at it.

[00:16:43]This came out yesterday, okay? That's the prediction, right? This is a median market estimate of inflation at 4.91% by the end of the year. What is our score? 4.14.

[00:16:55]The previous reading for the last 12 months is 4.14. Today, analysts, economists, and the market are predicting a 12-month reading of 441, okay? And the monthly IPCA of 0.38, a slight drop, a slight drop of 0.70.

[00:17:15]So we're going to be paying close attention to this data here at 9 AM, which is quite important. So the material I want to bring to you here, which I provided for macro operators, I'll even provide it to you here in a summarized way, operators, I'm going to show you what we'll be waiting for and in which direction we'll position ourselves after the data comes out. That's what I want to show you, okay? So, wait a minute, I think I showed it.

[00:17:41]No, it's not, it's not this one, it's not this PDF here, no. This is the wrong PDF for you.

[00:17:47]Let me see if I can find it here. I sent it to the macro operators group over there. This is it.

[00:18:02]Let's go. I'm not going to read it here, am I? I usually send this study to the macro traders beforehand, you know. But to summarize, we have a projection, according to the market today, of the monthly IPCA at 0.70%, and an increase, according to the annual rate. Let me see if it's gone, let me go back here to, let me remind you, operators, just a minute here, just so we don't get lost. We have an increase, right, in the 12-month IPCA, okay? And a slight drop, a slight drop compared to the previous monthly reading. Is that really so?

[00:18:37]Let's see. That's all I'm talking about today, okay?

[00:18:40]We're going to focus on what's surprising in this data. The market will be impacted, trader, if it comes from outside the market consensus. If the data comes in line, it won't have as much of an impact on the dollar index. Now, if the market comes in much higher than inflation, which is what I believe—I don't believe, I don't believe inflation will be lower, because this reading is for the month of April, okay?—then... And we're going to see some of the contamination from this escalation of attention in the Middle East. Due to the high cost of oil, we are seeing this impact on inflation. For example, in the United States, gasoline went up 7% last month, all due to the impact of oil prices, okay? Okay, operator, let's go.

[00:19:23]Today, the market is expecting 0.70% monthly and 4.1% over the last 12 months, okay? What I want to show you here, what it means, just so you understand, okay? What this means is high inflation, right? This means that the Central Bank doesn't have room to cut interest rates, okay? There is no room to cut interest rates. So, just so you understand here, going straight to the data, as I said, this material here, the macro operators, it's detailed here, okay? So, here's a summary of what's happening with the interest rate, right? Uh, the CELIC, which reflects the Central Bank's more restrictive stance, right? The job market is booming, fueled by high demand and inflationary pressure, but I won't go into that with you. Oh, the impact, oh, that's the path to follow when the data comes out. IPCA released. What is the yield curve impact sequence? Our DI here, it's the first economic indicator, right? Well, it's an economic indicator, an adjustment, okay? The laws are there.

[00:20:25]So it will be impacted first by the dollar, and then the impact will be felt in the stock markets.

[00:20:30]So when the IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) comes out, I usually look at the January DI (interbank deposit rate) for the 27th and 29th, because it reflects the expectation of monetary policy in the medium term, the 27th, January 27th. So it's usually the first one to move. So I'm already keeping an eye on the short ends of the yield curve, you know, when the data comes out. One good example is the one that happened with Perol. When Peru was announced last week, on Friday, what happened right away? The yield curve took a hit, didn't it? He threw it upwards, then it went down. So, if you look at the effect on the graph, that's exactly what the yield curve did to the dollar. The yield curve went up and then came down. We saw that in the graph, look.

[00:21:14]Oh, let me show you here. It was Perow's day. Just so you understand what I'm saying, when something important comes up, like today's data, the first ones to feel the impact, to absorb the news, are the " deis," okay? Oh, for example, here, let me show you something really interesting. Perow, he left on Friday, right? Oh, this here is the quantitative system. I'll show you the pearl here on Friday. What happened at the moment the dice were rolled? This is... I know it's a bit far, but it was exactly here at 9:30. You see here, at 9:30, this curve here, these are the interest rate curves. It's here, okay? I don't know if it's possible to zoom in here. Let me see if I can zoom in for you.

[00:22:01]Ready. I think it will be better this way. Just so you understand, look. I want to show you this pull here, look. Right here at 9:30, look. That red line went upwards. and then it melted and kept falling. This was the impact of Perol, okay? Impact of Peroll.

[00:22:17]So what happened when Pearll left? This is an extremely important piece of information.

[00:22:22]The first economic indicator to feel the impact there, to absorb it, was the... it was the... it 's our yield curve, the red line. And if you look at the chart, the dollar made exactly the same movement. He pulled it up and it melted right here. See? This is important to look at when you have a high-impact event, okay? A high-impact event. So, taking this aside, if you come to the chart, let me see, let's show you the chart for today.

[00:22:51]Let me see if I can show it to you here.

[00:22:58]I want to show you the graph so you understand what I'm talking about.

[00:23:05]The dollar, look what the dollar did today, that's really cool, okay? You need to understand those movements there and understand why I'm looking at the yield curve today, okay? It's Friday, right?

[00:23:20]Oh, look at the dollar at 9:30. Look here. The pearl came out, right? We analyzed it in the room, you know, the upward surge went down, then the dollar fell and plummeted throughout the day, right? He finished.

[00:23:34]working in decline. When was this taken? Day 8.

[00:23:38]Friday was indeed the 8th. Just so I can see this here and confirm. Wait a minute.

[00:23:43]But that was the real movement.

[00:23:45]Exactly. Day 8. Okay. Let me put the WDO here. So, for you to understand, it was the same movement, okay? The same impact. Then we saw that the dollar fell for most of the day, right?

[00:24:00]But, oh, in the middle of the roll, Perou, oh, it went up, it was that sharp pull, and then, boom, it fell, you see? And the market was trading lower that day. So, that's why I'm talking about the first one today, the first economic indicator, okay? What are the things we keep an eye on that I teach macro operators? Interest rate curve, right? That's why this information is here.

[00:24:25]Coming back here, let me remove this information here. DI 29, right? I'm watching the whole curve, okay? The entire curve, but if you don't have the interest rate curve like I do in the Conti Web system, you monitor one day here, I recommend the 27th and the 29th. So the PCA data came out today, it was released.

[00:24:47]First impact: yield curve. Well, if the yield curve pulls upward, the dollar goes up, the stock market goes down. If the yield curve pulls down, the dollar goes down, the stock market goes up. Why is that, Fabio? That's where you learn this in Max's training, okay, operator? I can't go into detail about everything here for you, but let's get to the point. So here we have a surprise today, pay attention to this part here, to this scene, to this panel. What would be a surprise today regarding the IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index)? We have three types of scenarios, okay?

[00:25:16]Positive surprise, inflation is lower. Why? Because it's good if inflation comes down. Why is it good?

[00:25:26]Because there is room for the Central Bank to do what? Cut interest rates. So lower inflation means that the price, the cost, of a product or service has cooled down.

[00:25:36]This opens up space and momentum for the Central Bank to cut interest rates. So, a positive surprise is within expectations, which is when it's in line with market consensus, and a negative surprise is if inflation comes in high, above expectations, you understand? That's because it's a negative surprise, because it's bad, so what does the Central Bank need to do?

[00:25:54]Raise the interest rate or leave it unchanged. Beauty? What happens then?

[00:26:00]If inflation doesn't decrease and interest rates remain high, the stock market suffers and falls. So, we're going to have these readings here, look. Okay, let's start with the surprise. First, I believe it will be a surprise, a negative one.

[00:26:13]What's so surprising, Fabio? When it comes in far outside of what the market is expecting. For example, as expected, the annual rate is 0.65, but the monthly rate is 0.75. Beauty? It's an interpretation within the consensus. We probably can't, we probably won't have that strong impact because the market is already expecting it.

[00:26:31]Annual figures of 4.36 to 4.46 are within expectations. Negative surprise, operator. If the monthly figure here comes in above 0.80 and the annual figure above 4.51, both moving in the same direction, then that's a surprise, a very negative surprise, okay? Why? Because the market today is working with a certain metric, what should we use as a benchmark? Let's remember this here. Economic calendar.

[00:26:58]Oh, economic calendar.

[00:27:10]Let's go back here, okay? What's the metric, then? It's not the annual figure, it's not 441.

[00:27:17]If it comes to 4.51, that's much higher. And the monthly payment is not 0.70. If it comes in at 0.80, that's much higher. The market no longer expects this. The market expects 4.1 for the year and 0.70 for the month. If you come here, look, if you come here, look, the monthly payment on 065, man, it's almost here at 0.70, you see? 0.65 to 0.75. The 0.70 monthly fee is included here. The annual rate, the annual rate is 4.36, it's 4.46, that 's the annual rate, you see? Because it's in the middle of the 441. Do you understand what the consensus market expects? And the positive surprise, which is what I find least likely, okay? Because of all the supply shocks that oil has been generating, right? Uh, it would be the monthly one here, in 060, right?

[00:28:11]The bar is 0.60.

[00:28:14]Why is the projection 0.70 and the annual figure below 4.41, when the awareness is 4.1?

[00:28:22]Beauty? So let's keep an eye on these values ​​here, because the market isn't going to react to the IPCA (Brazilian inflation index), right? He won't react to the IPCA (Brazilian inflation index), he 'll react to the surprise of the data. That's how the market works. Why?

[00:28:38]Managers will have to reposition and rebalance their portfolios.

[00:28:41]Money will be coming out of fixed income investments, right? It will shift from being a safe-haven asset to a risky asset. For example, if the PC is very expensive, what does the manager do? Wow, inflation is so high, where is he going to allocate his money if he takes it out of risky assets, out of the stock market with such high inflation? Invest your money in fixed income assets. He wants to protect his capital: high inflation, high interest rates for longer, and a falling stock market. That's why money is being moved from risky assets to safe-haven assets. This is the reading. Beauty? So, to wrap things up here, okay? I don't want to go on for too long. To summarize the main point, this material is much more detailed for Mac operators, but in short, here's the summary. Here's the summary. Listen up, pay attention to this. This is important, do you know why? Oh, if the monthly payment comes up here, that part is really cool, okay? If the monthly PSA reading comes in above average, and the annual reading also comes in above average, the DII (interbank deposit rate) rises, the dollar rises, and the stock market tends to fall. What do you need, man? I don't really know much about this, you know?

[00:29:46]I'm just starting out on your macroeconomics channel, I don't have any knowledge, I have n't taken any macroeconomics courses. Decorate this here. If you see the monthly and annual readings above, it has to be above, not just slightly above the projection, it has to be above what I showed you, that negative surprise, above the negative surprise, okay?

[00:30:08]What's happening? Then you'll see the currency rising, the dollar rising, and the stock market falling. If both of them come down, which I think is unlikely, but it could happen, okay?

[00:30:19]Well, if the monthly figures come in below expectations and the annual figures also fall below expectations, I'll close the deal, right?

[00:30:25]With interest rates falling, premiums pay less, the dollar falls, and the stock market tends to rise. Now, if an operator comes along, this here, see, the monthly one above and the annual one below, without direction, okay? More volatility. Either the monthly rate below and the annual rate above. Same thing. The movement there generally tends to be more volatile, without direction. The structural trend is if both the monthly and annual IPCA readings come in the same direction, okay?

[00:30:52]Both up and down. So that's what we're going to keep an eye on.

[00:30:56]That's the IPCA reading for today. Alright, operators? So here's a summary of the material. So what do we have today as well? Aside from that, operators, so listen up, pay attention to one thing. I want you to understand one thing. How are we going to position ourselves before the data comes out? It wasn't before, right? You're already paying attention, right? Ah, you're already paying attention.

[00:31:24]Operators, you're already aware of what the focus is, right? What could the readings be? So, if the reading comes up much higher, you already know how you 'll have to position yourself. Well, the United States today will also have the same inflation data, only over there in Uncle Sand's homeland, which is the CPI, okay?

[00:31:41]What is the CPI? So, I want you all to pay attention, okay? If they both come in the same direction, if they come here, look, green here, green here, you have to see the value too. That's bad. Green doesn't mean it 's good, no. Green doesn't necessarily mean it 's good, okay? The green color means it came in above the analysts' projections here, but in a scenario where inflation is high, that tends to be bad, okay? In the cycle we are in now, the scenario is worse. So what do we have here, operators? Later, right? The backdrop today is the IPCA inflation rate, starting here in Brazil and then, you know, we have it here in the American market.

[00:32:17]Why is the American market important?

[00:32:18]Because it will impact all markets.

[00:32:21]Oh, everyone is looking at the United States, which is the stage for the world's largest economy. So, here in the United States, we're going to have their IPCA, their inflation rate. Our IPCA here is their IPCA, or their CPI, right? So, the monthly report is coming up here, this April reading, okay? The monthly payment is expected to be between 0.9 and 0.6.

[00:32:43]The annual rate is set to increase from 3.3 to 3.7. That's an increase, right? It's very similar to Brazil, one reading per month and another annually. And here we have the core IPC, right? This is where the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to the core.

[00:32:58]Why, Fabio? Because what exactly is inflation? Inflation is anything that generates consumption in the economy. All. For example, transportation, restaurants, travel, health, education. Beauty? Everything that generates consumption is included in the inflation calculation.

[00:33:14]When you see "core" here, it means that some categories are being excluded, for example, food and oil, which are items with a lot of volatility. So, given this tension in the Middle East, it's important to understand macroeconomics. All of this that happens in the Middle East impacts the markets, especially these inflation data because, you know, we have these readings of this CPI here, for example, the annual one, it takes all the items, but here we can have a slightly more distorted reading because oil has skyrocketed, right, the cost, the price of oil has risen, so due to this high volatility it can contaminate this CPI inflation metric. So the Federal Reserve, it pays more attention to this inflation here, because it's excluding food, it's excluding energy, for example, oil, which is a very volatile asset, so it ends up excluding that reading. So, the Central Bank looks closely at this reading here to really decide on the trajectory of the yield curve, to know if the cost, you know, per American has actually increased or not. Given the geopolitical tensions we've had, this interpretation is a bit more tainted, so it might actually come in higher, but the Central Bank is looking at the core figures. So, the monthly fee is going up, right? In the United States, in April, we had a gasoline price increase, right, due to this escalation in the Middle East, 7%, right? So we see that the monthly payment has increased, right? From the IP, from the CPI at the core and also annually, we have a slight increase. What should we be paying attention to? It's the same reading as Brazil's IPCA, okay? If both come in the same direction there, that further strengthens the interpretation of a scenario where the stock market is down and the dollar is up. If the CPI comes, it will be even more expensive. And remember, we are already in a pessimistic scenario today. The market is already somewhat anticipating higher inflation, you know, and there's attention focused on what's happening in the Middle East. Now, if the data comes in much higher than what the market is expecting, it will further intensify this movement, this global pessimism for today. Beauty? So, that's the drive, that's the trigger of the day, that's the event of the week for me, okay? This is the agenda for the week, it's today. Okay, inflation is in focus, it's on the radar, and today we also have what's happening in the Middle East. So today's data could further intensify the overall pessimistic sentiment that we already have today.

[00:35:51]Or if the data comes in a little lower as well, that's not possible; we could see a shift in sentiment. The market is alive, Trump might say something, you could reach an agreement there, global sentiment could shift, the data could come in good, we don't know what we know.

[00:36:03]Based on what is released, we know which side we will take, which side we will prioritize buying from, which side we will sell from; we will follow the money. That's what we do. Beauty? Questions there, operators. Questions, questions, doubts.

[00:36:24]Hey, look at this, operator. Dude, look at this, look at the trail. Look at that, look at that violent pull of the trail up here. This shows that pessimism is increasing even before our market opens. If this upward trend continues, it further intensifies what I want to do today, which is to buy dollars, okay? Obviously, it depends on the market opening and buying dollars and selling stocks.

[00:36:45]This, to me, man, is, look at this, I think: "Whoa, pessimism is increasing."

[00:36:51]See that? Pessimism is increasing here in real time. Look at this pull here at 8:10.

[00:36:58]8:10 until 8:30, right?

[00:37:05]Let's see if there are any questions or doubts here. Hey, do that overview here that we do in the classroom every day.

[00:37:18]Let's see how things are going there now. Fasten your seatbelts. Let's travel around the world.

[00:37:23]Let's do that trip overview.

[00:37:26]Oh, Asian traders are falling.

[00:37:31]Asian lockdown, right? That's negative, isn't it? Today the bags passed by there. Oh, South Korea fell today, right? At least one day the guys have to go, right? Oh, Europe, we see [clearing throat] over there in Europe, the stock futures are already trading down, right? Our news system over there already showed us that, right? Precado, [rumbling] our Macrons radar. Future Americans. Let's see what the future holds for Americans.

[00:38:04]US futures, down 0.41%, CP500 C slightly less, and DACs a little more, which is, you know, more sensitive to interest rates, technology, there's more volatility in DAs, falling to 0.88%. The VIX, which is the fear index, is pretty calm today, right? It's at 2%. Okay, but we can see it here, look, the scenario is all declining in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Beauty? Now let's take a look at future Americans. The future of Americans, the operator, is extremely important, right? As for stock futures, oh, everything's falling, you see? The current scenario is truly pessimistic, as our brother Marcos was showing. So here we see the stocks falling, the American blue chips falling, you see? sectorial. Here we see the American sectors working at slightly more positive levels, but the stocks, the stock futures, are trading down, right? And these are significant drops, not small drops, it's 4%, Nvidia 4%, Tesla 1.5%, Amazon, Apple, nobody gets away with it today, huh?

[00:39:08]Google's down 1%, man, everything's down out there today, okay? Well, here we have the American interest rates, look. Look at the American interest rates, the Treasuries, you see?

[00:39:20]The money's leaving the purse, right? Stocks are losing momentum today; it has to be going somewhere. Where are you going?

[00:39:26]Apparently, we're heading towards treasuries here, right? Interest rates, US bonds. So, all those curves, right? Uh, short tip, long tip, right? 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 years. That's why American interest rates are rising. Our EWZ.

[00:39:41]Look, let's take a look now at the domestic market, our EWZ, shall we? These are ADRs, which are Brazilian shares traded in New York, okay? The future is already open. The WWZ falling 0.5% represents our Bovespa. Petrobras is falling, huh? Petrobras is falling there, even in the pre-market, despite the rise in oil prices. Oil is up 2.5 and trading at 105 right now, okay?

[00:40:07]So here we have the banks also falling, and the overall emerging markets index, which is the EEM, is falling, man, almost 2,000%. Beauty? There's a very sharp drop in the global stock market across all the major continents that we like to monitor. So we see a scenario, traders, with a much more bearish bias in the stock market. Oil, you see? Oil is up almost 2.70%. A classic risk-averse scenario. A classic example of risk aversion. That's why our brother was already showing signs of pessimism, okay? Okay, now let's take a look at the dollar's value around the world. Interest rates, right? The American ones are going up, as I've already shown, the DXY is up 0.32% today against developed market currencies, beating the dollar across the board. And compared to emerging markets as well, the dollar continues to crush most emerging currencies, only losing out to the Norwegian currency, right? A zero to zero with China here. This one is duplicated, I don't count this one. Compared to the others, an average increase of 5%. Why on average? Because those who are in the live room with me know how high our dollar can go, what the fluctuation rate can be, and what percentage to aim for. I look at the currencies of emerging countries to see where our dollar can go. That's why we sold at the peak of the day in the dollar yesterday, right? Because we had variation here, not exceeding 0.25%, which is the variation that the dollar had against emerging market currencies.

[00:41:46]So you look for correlation to use these operations. If our dollar opens here with a very strong gap of % up, I won't think about buying dollars, because no currency here is trading at 100% today. That's correlation, okay? Now, if our dollar opens here without a gap, just a small gap downwards, I only want to buy dollars, especially if the inflation data confirms and further intensifies this already pessimistic scenario that is in place for today. Do you understand? What does it mean to prepare yourself, to interpret the macro before you enter a trade? That's what we do every day. Beauty? So we already have here what's happening in the background for today: inflation on the radar, tension in the Middle East. And here we are having a day of prevailing pessimism, a great day of risk aversion. We'll see how the data is being released starting at 9 AM. Alright, operators? Let me check the questions here so we can wrap up, then I'll go to the room with the operators.

[00:42:40]Fabio, your system A picks up the news, the news in real time. Yes. Oh, what time is it here now?

[00:42:48]8:44, oh, 8:42, it just came out. 8:31.

[00:42:53]Shares plummet after strategy change. Some news is actually relevant, right? Oh, high impact. It came out here, at 6 AM in the Eurozone, right, that there was some data there. So, here are the red ones, and here are all the ones that will be released in real time. What's important is coming out here, look. It just came out 2 minutes ago, always in real time. Alright, operator? Awesome! That's where the operators are.

[00:43:17]So, how do you react when the market opens with a gap? Could the dollar open higher already? It can open higher, yes.

[00:43:24]In our system, I teach the operators how to do market calculations. That's the dollar exchange rate for today, okay? The dollar is opening up a slight upward gap, okay?

[00:43:33]But I teach how to do market calculations in the treasury mentorship program. What do we do if it opens with a gap? It depends on where it's going to open, okay? If it opens at a higher percentage point, I won't consider buying in that region.

[00:43:44]Why? Because it is the region from which all the borders are fluctuating. I need a slightly smaller gap, further down. If it opens with a small upward gap, makes a downward move, seeks the exchange rate settlement rate, which is what was taught there, or a protection mechanism, which is what the dollar usually does, then we buy, okay? So it's not about opening by buying right away. If it opens with a gap, we'll analyze it to see in which region it opened, okay? That's why I teach about this in more detail during the mentorship program, but we specialize in account opening operations, okay? We specialize in that; we handle opening operations every day, okay? Well, yesterday, for example, it didn't work right away at the opening.

[00:44:21]I sold after about 15 minutes at the top, but why? Because the dollar already opened with a small gap yesterday, right? Around 0.25%, I waited until I reached that point to make my sale. Beauty? But when it opens up there, everything comes together, right? That's a cool, interesting area, man. It 's great to catch the operation there, but there are days when it might open up halfway there, okay?

[00:44:41]So today, traders, pay attention to the data, as it could provide a great trading opportunity right at the opening of the dollar index.

[00:44:46]Alright, operators? So, macro analysis was performed there, see? Look at this. This is a beautiful thing to me. The terminal is tearing upwards, operator. Look, there's a trail right here!

[00:44:54]Tearing upwards. Pessimism is taking hold strongly before our opening. This could generate a lot of activity right from the start for us.

[00:45:04]Here, look. This thing pointing upwards is showing me the dollar going up and the stock market going down. Beauty? This shows that the pessimism of the day is intensifying. Okay, operators, a macro analysis has been completed. Let's go to the live room with the operators now. Let's try to catch it at the opening if we have the opportunity and wait there, okay? These are the data that will be very important for today. Alright, operators?

[00:45:30]Great trading to you all, and let's go to the room for those who are with me there. Is it closed? It cost,