We put the Budget changes through our $20m Super Computer to Model the actual outcomes.

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Well, how does though taxing all asset classes more help people get into housing?

[00:00:07]Well, I think I think on the the changes that have been made more broadly than the property market.

[00:00:15]Uh, that there is uh, you know, of course there's mixed views out there. It looks like a tax grab. It's well well, it certainly isn't that.

[00:00:22]Australians looking to start or grow a business have an epic opportunity, and that opportunity is to do it in New Zealand. No capital gains tax, very simple tax system, broad base, low rate.

[00:00:35]We keep it simple. We allow you accelerated depreciation and deductibility on your capital investments. Where the bloody hell are you? If you're an Aussie, come over.

[00:01:02]You know, we we put um, you know, 20 25 million more 30 million dollars into the technology over the last um, 10 15 years.

[00:01:12]And putting that data into the system and forecasting the outcomes on probability on pricing um, for hard assets. And and not just physical real estate um, all assets. So, family home rural property, industrial, commercial, residential.

[00:01:34]Um, physical, stock market values, um, the the the ASX businesses um, SME all hard assets.

[00:01:47]Um, so so forecasting that now is that the technology now and I wasn't surprised by the output.

[00:02:00]What I got a a bit concerned about was the impact the the data has has produced and it's very segmented from state to state, city to city but generally speaking I'll speak to Melbourne, Sydney and Queensland we know those markets intimately that we we've seen um great property price the last 30 40 years in this country.

[00:02:28]What we'll see now after this budget is effectively um generally 15 to 20% decrease in values.

[00:02:42]The reason for that is purely the removal of deductibility and the removing of all those tax concessions the and the removal of effectively um gearing.

[00:02:58]So gearing now and borrowing to leverage leverage is now expensive.

[00:03:06]Because generally speaking the cost of leveraging a million dollar asset let's call it a house a property the cost to do that now after tax has tripled.

[00:03:23]So and the reason for that is deductibility on interest appreciation.

[00:03:32]Now if someone said your house repayments are going to triple you'd have meltdown.

[00:03:43]So the cost of leverage pretty much anything an investment listed unlisted cost to carry that now has tripled.

[00:03:56]So, the the what happens those physical assets to it, people will still gear up, but they've got no deductions. If I don't have deductions, you've got to bring your price down to meet the market.

[00:04:10]So, what that means is the impact for people wanting to become financially independent or save for retirement, this is important.

[00:04:24]What it did highlight, this part's frightening.

[00:04:30]7:30 on the 12th of May last week, meant that the average Australian with an average account balance of $176,212 as of last Friday night, in a average account balance in the average superannuation fund across Australia, which is frightening, but they're the most Australians.

[00:04:53]You have to achieve now 24.7% more savings to achieve that same goal.

[00:05:11]What does that mean?

[00:05:13]We're at the Olympics and we've got Australia, seven countries, and we're competing in the 100-m gold medal.

[00:05:23]The 100-m final, most spectacular spectacular event in the Olympic Games, for me.

[00:05:31]And before the gun goes off or before you get set in the blocks, the steward comes up to you and says, "Paul, um just giving you a word of warning.

[00:05:44]You've got to run 125 m, Not 100.

[00:05:51]So, you've got a penalty.

[00:05:55]And I look at the steward and I say, "Why is that?"

[00:05:59]And he says, "Because you're an Australian."

[00:06:07]25% impact on savings now to be at the same goal as a 12th of May. So, it's a momentous time 12th of May.

[00:06:17]Not so much house price will be affected by 15 to 20%.

[00:06:21]But the retirement savings to be financially independent, and what I mean by that, someone needs 60,000 70,000 dollars a year, you've got to save 1.1 1.2 million well the bank 70 grand allocated pension.

[00:06:36]The retirement savings nest egg now has been blown apart.

[00:06:42]So, you've got to work 25% harder to make up for the lost tax concessions and the loss and the impact on growth on physical hard assets.

[00:06:55]That Olympic Games is a great analogy.

[00:06:58]Is it I've been penalized before in running at a wrong and made a start, you get penalized.

[00:07:07]Not good. Happens.

[00:07:10]25 m head start.

[00:07:12]You've got to run run 125 m now, not 100.

[00:07:15]How fair is that?

[00:07:18]Yeah, look, maybe New Zealand does look good.