Bitcoin Just Entered The Same DCA Zone As 2022

[00:00:00]Wow, last week we gave you an Ethereum short and I've already taken profits.

[00:00:07]Let me take you over to BTCC, the broker of our choice who offers fast execution.

[00:00:11]We sit flat right now waiting for opportunity.

[00:00:16]But there's something much bigger happening behind the scenes and as you can see, the next trillion-dollar movement will not happen because of candles.

[00:00:29]It will happen because it's about Washington.

[00:00:35]Senator Cynthia Lummis just delivered a stark warning. If the Clarity Act fails, crypto could be stuck in regulation regulatory limbo until 2030.

[00:00:48]The vote's only a few days away.

[00:00:51]Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren is demanding President Trump disclose every dollar of crypto-related income before the 23rd debate of July. One political battle, one vote, and years of crypto regulation could be decided in a day. At the same time, Bitcoin is quietly sitting inside its accumulation zone, although it is still inside internal liquidity.

[00:01:23]And of course, the old resistance the old support is becoming resistance.

[00:01:29]So we're going to break it all down. So welcome back, crypto crew. It's your boy Tommy. I bring you the hottest of Bitcoin and crypto action. If you like what you see, make sure you give us a like. Make sure you hit subscribe if you have not already. And of course, make sure you follow us on X where we talk about Bitcoin crypto all day, every day.

[00:01:52]Because we're crypto maniacs and the information we give you is like an adrenaline shot with steroids and you always leave with a triple shot cappuccino. Hey, if you're new here, welcome aboard. I just want to give you a brief background on myself. I spent 30 years on Wall Street trading floors, trading in commercial banks. Today, I trade my own capital and I work with Merlin, the traders trading group. Now, our objective, we show every position live entries, stop losses, profit targets, winners, losers.

[00:02:22]The goal is simple, show you exactly how we are positioning before the market moves, not after. Now, just on last week, that was a perfect example. We shared our Ethereum short setup. We took our profits and now we're sitting flat on BTC or both of our choice.

[00:02:38]We're waiting for our next opportunity.

[00:02:40]Make sure, make sure, if you want to trade alongside of us, join our free Telegram trading community. The link is in the description below. That's where we post our live setups before they happen. Now, let's get into the highlight of today's charts. We got a few for you. So, just hang tight cuz it's all going to start to make sense. Look, everyone it loves to tell you they bought the bottom, right?

[00:03:04]Almost nobody actually does. Why?

[00:03:07]Because real bottoms are totally boring.

[00:03:11]They're frustrating. They make you question whether crypto is ever going to come back. Now, there's a lot of headwinds against crypto right now. And this is exactly where Bitcoin sits today. If we look at the historical accumulation curve, back in 2019, right in here, okay? Bitcoin entered this exact zone. Most investors had given up. Most short-term traders were selling short. Then Bitcoin exploded more than 2,100% eventually reaching that $69,000 top. Now, if we fast forward to 2022, >> [snorts] >> Bitcoin came off again.

[00:03:50]Same story. Fear was everywhere. media calling for lower prices. Bitcoin entered the same accumulation zone and then rallied 650% eventually reaching the old time new high about 126,100.

[00:04:05]Now, history isn't promising it's going to happen again, but it does show some important things.

[00:04:12]The best buying opportunities never feel comfortable. When you're trader, everything you do hurts.

[00:04:21]Everything you do hurts.

[00:04:24]Keep that in mind. Write it down. That Write it down. That was a great saying by uh Charlie D'Francesco of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He said, "Every time I got to take a trade that I know is good, it hurts." But, here's something that's really important, okay?

[00:04:42]As I just said, best buying opportunities never feel comfortable when you're living through them. They only become obvious weeks, months, and years later. In 2028, people will claim they bought right down here, and they didn't. Very few actually will, but we are positioned. We are positioned, so make sure you get into our free pro group. All right, so let me take you over to the next chart. Make sure that I hammer this point home.

[00:05:11]This is the cycle that breaks people. Everyone thinks crashes destroy investors. They don't.

[00:05:20]They do not. What crashes do is they create opportunity because waiting, okay, destroys investors. This is where patience get gets tested, okay? Bitcoin remains below the 200 EMA.

[00:05:37]Every rally is being sold cuz we're below it, okay?

[00:05:41]Uh every bounce feels like a fake out.

[00:05:45]News slows down. People stop checking prices. That's exactly what happened before the previous bull runs. In 2020, months of sideways movement, then Bitcoin exploded more than 1,600%.

[00:06:00]Again, in 2022, weeks of boredom followed by a rally of more than 600 % 700%.

[00:06:10]Most people won't quit uh most people won't quit during the crash, they quit during the silence.

[00:06:17]Okay? The investors who survives this phase are usually the ones who benefit from the next expansion. Now, as you know, we're looking for dollar cost averaging all the way down to 50,000, potentially even 49,000. Now, let's get into the macros that are actually showing this. All right, let's look at oil. All right, oh actually yeah, this is a good chart. I didn't erase it.

[00:06:40]We're still sitting in internal liquidity right now. We have that level at 67,000 that we want to short. Now, we get over to good old oil. Where's my oil chart? Here we are in the oil chart, right? Oil, as it gets out of this zone because of what's happening in the Middle East and starts to move higher, what is that a you know, what what's the what's what's that picture painting?

[00:07:03]Pushing oil back above 80 bucks a barrel isn't great news for risk assets.

[00:07:09]>> [snorts] >> Higher oil prices increase transportation costs, manufacturing uh costs, and inflation actually starts to heat up across the economy.

[00:07:19]>> [snorts] >> That makes it harder for overall inflation to cool. If if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve has less room to cut interest rates.

[00:07:31]Higher rates generally mean tighter financial conditions. Tighter financial conditions usually reduce liquidity flowing into speculative assets like Bitcoin and the total crypto market.

[00:07:42]Now, it doesn't automatically mean Bitcoin has to fall, but generally, it actually is putting pressure on the upward momentum of Bitcoin, especially up at that 67,000, which we haven't even been able to reach yet. We got to 65.9.

[00:07:59]We actually cooled down. We're trading at uh What are we trading at right now?

[00:08:03]63.9 or something like that. Let me see where we are in Bitcoin.

[00:08:07]I moved my Bitcoin. Yeah. Oh, we're We're back to 65.1. Back to 65.1. Okay.

[00:08:13]>> [snorts] >> So, usually, that's a That's a headwind. Um it creates, you know, headwinds that traders need to respect.

[00:08:24]So, that's why we're watching the macro just as closely as we're watching price.

[00:08:28]A lot of stuff to keep track of here.

[00:08:30]You know, it's like trying to herd cats.

[00:08:32]If you've ever tried to herd cats, you know, you You got three cats, you put one in the corner, two walked away, you go grab one, the other guy in the corner leaves, you know, then you grab one more, you put him in the corner, you try You put two next to each other, you're trying to chase the third one, the two leave. It's a nightmare. That's why I say get into our free pro group, because we do all the cat herding for you. Now, I'm going to take you over to a chart that I've not talked about for a very long time.

[00:08:58]The 10-year yield.

[00:09:01]The 10-year yield has climbed back to around four Actually, it's sitting at 4.59 right now.

[00:09:09]This is not what crypto bulls want to see. See, when Treasury yields rise, uh investors can earn higher returns from relatively safer, supposedly safer, government bonds. That pulls capital away from higher-risk assets like technology stocks and of course cryptocurrencies.

[00:09:30]Higher yields also tighten financial conditions. So, we got a double whammy.

[00:09:35]We got the oil and now we got the bonds.

[00:09:38]Historically, Bitcoin performs best when liquidity is expanding, not when borrowing costs remain elevated. As long as yields stay near these levels, crypto could experience increased volatility, very slow momentum on the upside. It's another reason why risk management matters completely in this thing. If you're a Bitcoin bull and you you go, "No, I don't think we're going down to like 50,000." Just use really good Bitcoin, you know, use really good risk management. You got to You got to respect the macros. All right, let's get into the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, and let's go over what's happening.

[00:10:16]All right, good old Tom told you like this 64,000 was important. We had broken down below it. We created a higher low right here. Market actually came down, tested this, said, "If we break upward, where we going to?" Said we're going right to here. This has been here for a couple of weeks now. The 65,505.

[00:10:38]Now, we punched through it.

[00:10:39]We need to close above it in order for us to actually see the rally that we're looking for to get short at 67,000.

[00:10:47]Uh cuz we expect that that's really where the major liquidity is. We look We look for basically a liquidity sweep, a fall back into the range. We'd be short already. Okay, with a stop loss up at like 70,000. I think the guys put it at.

[00:11:02]And [snorts] we'd expect the market to actually come back down and start trading to these levels. So, right now, as it stands right now at 3:24 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, resistance sits at 65,000 553.

[00:11:21]Another level of resistance sits up right at this pin right here, 66,384.

[00:11:27]Major resistance at the 67 to 68,000 dollar level. Okay, so if you didn't get involved in buying at 64, well, don't chase green candles. I wouldn't do that. That's not something I do. You could actually look to see if we get a retracement from this level back down to the 64 protect potentially even back down to say 63 8. And this is the area where you want to take a good shot at getting long with a very tight stop loss on it. Um because if it breaks this and holds below the 64, we're probably trading back down towards the 62.

[00:12:07]So, that's what stands in Bitcoin right now at this moment. All right, let's move on over to good old Ethereum.

[00:12:14]Uh where's my Ethereum chart? Where is it? Right there is Ethereum. Ethereum's been doing quite well.

[00:12:20]It's actually showing some power moves here and now. Where is it?

[00:12:24]Where's my levels? What happened to my levels? My levels disappeared.

[00:12:28]Hang on a second here. Where's my levels?

[00:12:31]All right, just had a re-put them on. I don't know we lost the chart, but anyway, okay, resistance.

[00:12:36]I gave you resistance at 1950. So far, that's been a monster resistance.

[00:12:41]Actually drove us right down to our support at 1800.

[00:12:45]1800, we pop back up. We're sitting night right now at resistance at 1900.

[00:12:50]Uh if we close below it, couple of bar uh candles down, most likely Ethereum is going to fall back down towards the 1,842 and potentially back to the 1800.

[00:13:02]The only way it shows any type of strength, it is needs to get above 1950.

[00:13:07]Hold above it. Now, I wouldn't buy the straight breakout. Okay, I would wait for a pullback down to maybe 1920 and even maybe 1900 again for the marketplace to actually come back up and take it out. But but the main resistance in Ethereum sits at 2,000. You want play-by-play updates all the time, get into the free pro group. Link in the description. All right, so what do you got to do? Well, you definitely got to follow us on X, where we talk about Bitcoin crypto all day, every day. And what else you got to do? Well, you got to do your own research, as you know I'm a trader just like you. I don't offer any type of financial advice. And what else you got to do?

[00:13:46]Well, if you're a short-term trader, you got to enjoy the party, but dance near the door. I'll see you tomorrow.

[00:13:52]Cheers.