Earnings Season‼️ Look Out for THESE Stocks!

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]All right, now let's get into what companies do I think are going to kill it versus which ones I'm a little scared of for this earnings season. Okay, so you know, specifically this is an insane week. I mean, look at this. UPS, first off, UPS, little concern with UPS and with Coca-Cola and it really has to do with energy prices. And I'm worried about the guidance of those two companies, specifically on margins and on earnings per share. I'm not that worried about necessarily revenue for UPS or Coca-Cola. I'm concerned with margins and with earnings per share guidance-wise. Not as much for the last quarter, more for whatever they guide for, right? Now, UPS doesn't trade at a very rich multiple. It's at a forward P of 15, but UPS generally trades at a lower range in general, so don't get too excited about a 15. That's about where it should be for company like UPS, right? And Coca-Cola trades at a 22, a do-si-do. That's about fair for where Coca-Cola should trade. Arguably one of the safest business models in the entire stock market, right? But I'm I'm concerned with both of those in regards to guidance around margins and around earnings per share for those two specific stocks. Spotify, don't have a strong opinion there. Robinhood, so good and bad with Robinhood.

[00:01:20]Robinhood last quarter could have gotten hurt substantially cuz crypto's in a tough place, Bitcoin specifically, right? And Ethereum. And then additionally, you had the stock market going down. So, Robinhood for their last quarter numbers, shaky. Guidance might not be bad guy if they're doing any sort of guidance, they might might actually be good for Robinhood.

[00:01:42]So, yeah, Visa comes in and beats their numbers almost every quarter, but Visa is one of those stocks it doesn't move big. It doesn't move big. It's um you know, what's one of those stocks on earnings? Is it V? Yeah, it's just V. Um Visa is one of those stocks on earnings that honestly it moves like 3 to 6%.

[00:02:01]It's not a big mover. What was that a do-si-do as well for Visa? A 22 forward P there. Yeah. Great company, obviously.

[00:02:08]A one-on-one. I mean, very special. Now, there is a stock I like more than Visa by the way and it is a company named American Express. Yes, I like American Express more than Visa. Uh getting in a discount and I actually believe American Express actually a little bit more of a premium business model, okay?

[00:02:27]Enphase been a mess for years, remains a mess, right? SoFi should come in with phenomenal numbers. SoFi, I like where SoFi stock is positioned going into these earnings as well. If they come out with great great numbers, great guidance, you know, great commentary on the conference call with the Anthony Noto, SoFi could go back to a 22 to 25 dollar stock after earnings, right? Eventually, we're going to get back to the 30s, but that might take a bit of time, but yeah, great numbers, great great conference call, Anthony Noto, you know, sounds good and confident. We're going 22 to 25 after earnings. If this stock drops in any substantial way and you go back to the 15 to 16 dollar level, for long-term investors that love SoFi, it's a great buying opportunity, right?

[00:03:12]Mr. Softy, Microsoft, they usually come in and beat numbers. Don't you know, don't be surprised at all if Microsoft comes in and misses, I'd be a little scary. Now, Microsoft's valuation's gotten very attractive recently and I've been talking about this one on the channel last month or two. Like I wouldn't mind buying Microsoft. I'm not going to buy Microsoft just cuz I have so many other opportunities in the market and I'm already heavily invested into a lot of big tech companies like Meta, like AMD, um like Amazon, right? But Microsoft, I've been talking about this one the last month or two. It's a buy, you know, straight up. Like it's a buy. I don't know what other way to put it.

[00:03:46]So, Microsoft should come in with good numbers. And if you're a long-term investor, I would actually hope the stock goes down on the earnings. Same as I think for Amazon, Meta, and Google McDoogle. You know, if I was you know, what actually I am an investor in all three of those companies, thinking about it. Amazon and Meta are big positions for me. Big big positions for me.

[00:04:05]Google, much smaller position.

[00:04:08]And I've actually sold a good amount of my Google McDoogle as well. But for these stocks, the nice thing with Meta is it sets up well from a valuation perspective. It's got a 22 forward P, a do-si-do for company that, you know, double digit earnings per share and revenue growth for years to go in the future. I think that's pretty darn attractive. Google, Google's been running heavy. So, Google I'd be a little more concerned with. Amazon's been running strong as well. So, those ones just have more uphill battles to fight here. Meta is a little bit easier.

[00:04:40]Meta is the issue with Meta, well, there's two issues for Meta. The main issue for Meta is you know, they're expecting 30% plus revenue growth this quarter they're about to report, which they can do, but it is a tough number. Like Meta is a big company nowadays. To do a 30% plus revenue growth number, I think they can do it, but I mean just like that's impressive and very difficult, but they should be able to do it.

[00:05:04]>> [snorts] >> Amazon and Google don't have those sorts of expectations. People are not expecting Amazon to grow their revenues 30% for this quarter they're about to report or Google. So, they just have much more modest expectations, but the other thing Meta has working against it going into these earnings is we don't know. Like it's just investor bases having trouble figuring out what is Zuckerberg spend for the next several years. We just don't know. We need more guidance for what is Zuckerberg thinking for spend for '27, for '28. Throw us some breadcrumbs, please, Zuckerberg.

[00:05:37]Throw us some dang bread. If he can just have a little bit more commentary around it's going to be a much more modest increase to CapEx in '27, '28 than this past year, stock will go back to 750, 800. It will happen quick. But people are scared. I'm scared even as an investor. I don't know what he's going to come in with. Like who knows? Maybe the CapEx next year they want to spend 150 billion. I I just don't know. He's taken it to such extreme levels last few years that we're just stuck standing here and like uh how high are we going, Zuck? So, like I feel confident in the numbers. My main concern is the CapEx spend. And ultimately, those chips depreciate over years and that could hold back earnings per share growth in future years. So, these are all things to consider, right?

[00:06:22]So, Google McDoogle, they also usually come in and beat their earnings as well.

[00:06:26]So, Chipotle, Chipotle's gotten more attractive.

[00:06:31]Chipotle was a stock I bet against a couple years ago and it was good time to bet against that stock. The valuation had ran a lot, but it's come in a lot now. You know, forward P of 29.

[00:06:42]So, Chipotle's gotten a lot more interesting. It lost it but the the issue with Chipotle is it has lost all hype in regards to that stock. So, there's you know, it used to be a very hypey, exciting stock. Used to be the darling of Wall Street when it came to the food and drink space.

[00:06:58]It lost all of that. It it has no hype and excitement anymore around it. But from a valuation perspective, it's much more intriguing now, right? Then we have Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory I'm expecting beats across the board for Cheesecake Factory.

[00:07:15]And when it comes to cake, the valuation is very attractive. Forward P of 15 with so many growth concepts for the next 10 plus years for that company. That's what makes them very attractive. Chipotle is very established now, right? And they can keep building locations, but they're very established. And they don't have another big growth concept coming behind them. Cheesecake's got growth concept after growth concept. We're talking North Italia, we're talking Flower Child. They have a huge opportunity with Culinary Dropout if they want to expand that and Blanco and we can run through all the different restaurants that they have potential for there, plus new ones they could create if they want.

[00:07:49]So, I really like Cheesecake and I'm expecting [snorts] double beats there and um good conference call as well.

[00:07:56]Mastercard, kind of like a Visa situation here. Apple sets up interesting into these earnings. It does set up interesting. So, and the reason being is this is Tim Cook's last quarter, right? Tim Cook's last quarter.

[00:08:11]The the forward P is high, right? About 31.

[00:08:15]I think people are probably front-run Apple a little bit. Here's the deal.

[00:08:19]Listen, Tim Cook's leaving the company, right? Um not like right now, but he is stepping down as CEO and the new guy is going to take over, right? Um what's his name? John? I can't remember the gentleman's name. He's worked for Apple for like ever though. But it since this is Tim Cook's last quarter, right? As the big dog, I would assume Tim Cook wants to go out on a huge number, huge beats. So, we'll see. Like I like, you know, I would assume given the announcement and everything, I would assume this is going to be a banger quarter. They they wouldn't want to report a bad quarter after Tim Cook just announced he's going to be leaving the company. That would be a that would look bad, right? So, that's kind of my thought in regards to that.

[00:09:06]Rivian, I mean, you know, their vehicles are pretty good, but man, they just, you know, just not buying it. Not buying it.

[00:09:14]Estee Lauder, EL stock. So, EL I'm expecting beats across the board for EL.

[00:09:20]And I'm I honestly expect EL to just beat beat beat for quite a while in regards to that stock. So, you know, forward P on this one looks a little high at 28, but keep in mind I think this company can come in and beat numbers for quite some time.

[00:09:32]And so, whatever you think they're going to have for earnings per share, my guess is it's going to be a lot better than everybody's expecting in regards to that, right? Chevron, Exxon Mobil, I mean, those companies are setting up pretty well cuz of obviously oil price and everything going on there, right?

[00:09:47]Now, we're in we're about to go into absolutely insane times with earning season. Everybody's company is going to be reporting. Don't get too focused on the short term, the short term moves, and all this stuff, right? Focus on the long-term. Focus on the fact that these companies have long runways of growth, right? If Amazon misses or beats their revenue by a little bit, their earnings per share by a little bit, it doesn't mean that much in the grand scheme of where Amazon's headed over the next two decades. Just keep that in mind, right?

[00:10:15]If Amazon's going to become a $10 trillion company, the next $100 billion of market cap is irrelevant, right? So, focus on the long-term, folks, and that's how you get long-term great results and put yourself in a position over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years that you're a very happy camper, right? How would you like access to all my best course curriculums, my becoming Master the Stock Market course, my Stock Market Investing Mastery course, my Stock Options Mastery course, my Millionaire Playbook? How would you like access to all my best courses, as well as the ability to have access to my six- and seven-figure plus Discord community, where we're constantly keeping in touch with each other, talking about what's going on in the market? How would you like exclusive weekly videos from me?

[00:11:00]How would you like the ability to see what stocks I'm buying and selling in my $2 million plus Fidelity account? If that all sounds pretty interesting to you, apply to join my private group.

[00:11:11]That is going to be linked in the description area down there. You can click on that, fill out an application, and go ahead, hop on a call with Andre.

[00:11:20]Andre will walk you through the whole process. He'll walk you through the whole group, and you can go ahead and join us in there. Once again, the link for that is in the description area. All right, next one up here. Let's go.

[00:11:31]>> look at it top down, you would think maybe the streets weren't still closed and oil wasn't at 100 and treasury yields haven't been leaking higher. It seems like AI has been the escape hatch for for investors. Does it make sense?

[00:11:44]Well, look, the AI trade, what's going on in software, hardware, this is really not dependent on the cyclical performance of the economy. These CAPEX plans, whether they pan out well or not, they're funded, the bets are on the table, and you're going to see things move on that very independently from what's going on in consumer spending, travel spending, industrial activity, and especially Europe and Asia's, you know, cyclical companies.

[00:12:09]And by your lights, is the global economy really feeling the wear and tear of that just now in an observable way?

[00:12:15]Increasingly. And the longer this stays shut, we're going to eventually hit binding constraints. I mean, it's one thing to pay for something, but, you know, to move from here to there takes oil. It takes energy. And when you're going to have shut shortages, you're going to have that binding constraint come in. So, I think what's happened here with oil for delivery out at the end of the year moving $15 higher now, that curve pushing out the amount of time the streets are closed, you know, the longer we have to take a look and say, you know, we've got a larger problem for cyclicals around the world.

[00:12:49]So, what are your forecasts for How do you view corporate earnings, let's say, that are more leveraged to Europe or in Asia, areas that will actually feel the pinch much more directly than the United States from all these closures?

[00:13:01]>> Well, it's it's ideally not the the focus of our investments so much, but I would tell you they're the ones that will benefit when the streets open. And I guess as a day passes, we're going to get closer to that point. I think all it does take is an improvement in transportation for us to be We could talk about damaged infrastructure, those sorts of things. But that it's really binary. That again, if we get through the supply shock, which is about transportation and storage, you'll see a lot lower energy prices, and you'll see those things recover. But there's so much that's going on that's interesting right now. I mean, what's driving earnings? It's an expectation for an 88% gain in semiconductor EPS in the US this year. And tomorrow, the four largest public company spenders on AI infrastructure going to report and tell us a lot about what they're going to spend this year. For sure.

[00:13:50]And it's almost as >> told us, to be fair. They're probably I mean, my guess is they're probably going to still align with what they said 3 months ago. So, yeah, nothing should really change. I mean, to be honest, more 2 and 1/2 months ago, cuz a lot of them reported in February.

[00:14:06]>> If, you know, the S&P 500, let's say, was ideally constructed to withstand, you know, the uncertainty about what the underlying economy might be doing, um, what do you think that means? I mean, the market's also been good with pricing out any Fed action, you know, for the foreseeable at this point. This is the thing. When you listen to Kevin Warsh talk about how bad things are at the Fed, and you wonder what monetary policy can really change the needle. Are we going to guarantee 2% inflation on a year-to-year pace every month? What What are we going to do that's markedly different that's really going to ensure that? Are we going to constrain the economy when there's a supply shock? It's kind of hard to imagine that it's going to be as different as all the talk. Listen.

[00:14:49]Listen. Listen. The new big dog coming in, Kevin Warsh, okay? Listen.

[00:14:55]He's going to pitch it as There's all these things to fix. We got big stuff to do.

[00:15:00]Like What does a president do when they come in, right? Oh, the country's been run so horribly. We're going to change everything. Your life is going to be so great, right? It's the same thing. So, a new Fed president comes in, right? Oh, you know, it's all bad. We've got so much to fix here. So much work to do, right?

[00:15:19]Um, we're going to fix it all, and it's going to be amazing. Same exact thing.

[00:15:23]So, when he's talking like that, like take it with a grain of salt. Take it with a grain of salt. Like it's going to like little changes will be made here and there, but a lot of it's going to be the same dang thing. All right, supply is still not catching up to demand in Asia.

[00:15:37]>> do you make of the Journal story? Does it have you sit back and say, "Okay, this was what we were worried about in the beginning?" Or not so much? Yeah, I there's it's it's smoke. I think your point you've made about the the the Open AI's Where there's smoke, there's fire!

[00:15:58]Open AI's ability to see various companies in various places at various times is crucially important. So, obviously, if their revenue is is impaired, then you would have to your your the hair on the back of your neck would go up about some of those investments. But I also think it's important to to build a little bit off of what Alex was saying.

[00:16:17]Um The the compute's going to get used. It may just be that Open AI is to to the point is is just getting taken by Anthropic right now. You We've seen Anthropic user users go up, and Open AI's are somewhat stagnant. So, it might just be an inter LLM rotation, if you will.

[00:16:37]>> Sure, but Oh. Oh, listen. Listen.

[00:16:38]Listen. I would not want to be Open AI.

[00:16:41]Oh, man. I mean, yeah, they've got Anthropic's no joke in terms of competition. They're no joke, but also Google. Gemini seems to be having more and more success. I personally use Gemini more and more. And the other one that I think gets secretly lost is Grok.

[00:16:59]And I find that a lot of people, especially users that like to use X, use Grok um on the regular and the most out of any AI engine. And so, like don't underestimate what Elon Musk has done with Grok. Don't underestimate certainly Anthropic, and don't underestimate Google McGoogle. So, you know, Open AI has been impressive what they've done over the past few years, but man, I'm just telling you, the competition has heated up big time.

[00:17:29]And a lot of times, whoever is the first mover doesn't always win long-term.

[00:17:32]They, you know, if that was the case, Yahoo would have won search long-term, right?

[00:17:38]It wouldn't have been Google. Like everybody used to use Yahoo search, and then Google ate their lunch as the years ticked on, right?

[00:17:44]Um, we can go through a ton of different things that happened in the internet age, right? We can go through cell phones, and you know, then then Who would have thought I mean, if you went back to 2000, who would have ever predicted that 20 years from that, you know, the biggest cell phone company in the United States would have been Apple? Apple. No one would have predicted that. That would have been crazy, right? Back then, it was what, Motorola and Nokia and like all those companies were the big dogs, right? And then all of a sudden to think like 20 years later, like Apple would be the most successful company for cell phones in the United States of America, like that's wild. So, something to keep in mind. That And, you know, a very smart voices who have a history in in in technology. I go back to Michael Dell, what, you know, I don't know whether it was 6 months ago or what have you, suggesting, yeah, ultimately, you're you're going to overbuild, cuz you usually do, but we're not there yet. But the point is you're going to get there.

[00:18:40]What if we get there faster than we once thought?

[00:18:42]>> Well, of course of course that would be deleterious. I I I've never once on the show denied the fact that we are at some point going to overbuild. There will be losses and write-downs and a decline in valuations.

[00:18:52]That's going to happen. It's impossible not to overbuild, especially when you have several CEOs, as we've noted ad nauseam, saying, "I'm much more likely to overbuild than underbuild." So, yes.

[00:19:02]So, so that that's a given. The question is timing. This is the most statement. I don't hear anything, and this is we're going to shift at some point to the to the earnings this week. We still don't hear anything about supply even catching up to demand, let alone exceeding it.

[00:19:16]And and to the extent that we hear that again this week, and everybody expects that we will, demand far exceeding supply, then we're no closer to the this mysterious end that we keep referring to today than we were yesterday or the day before.

[00:19:27]>> That is the the great question as we get set to hear from four of the most important companies on Earth in overtime, Matt, tomorrow. How much is this market now dependent on what happens with these numbers?

[00:19:39]I think it's incredibly important just in terms of, you know, what's been driving stocks higher so far this year.

[00:19:45]It's been the earnings story. You know, the geopolitical headlines have been non-reassuring, to say the least. But their earnings story has been the brightest one and your leading kind of hitters in that story have been the companies that are going to reporting after the close on Wednesday.

[00:20:01]Um and to Dan's point earlier, I think what we're going to hear is more of the same. Just more about continued constraints around what supply is like on compute versus any lack of demand.

[00:20:12]And so, you know, when the story came out this morning with the Wall Street Journal talking about, you know, Open AI missing numbers, I would point to what we're seeing in real time in terms of the pricing for GPUs just continuing to move higher. To me, that's tightness in the market versus any kind of concerns about what the demand environment is today.

[00:20:34]The thing I'll say about this whole deal is people are using AI more and more on a regular basis, right? Um you know, people are still actually a lot of people out there still trying AI for like the first time and kind of just messing around with it, but even in like a professional sense, business sense, people are using it more and more often on a day day in and day out basis, right? And that will continue to build for years to go in the future. And so, as far as the buildout goes, like I think there there probably be a moment you have to worry about like, did we get overbuilt? But you know, still ways away because you still have so many people experience AI for the first time and so many people like even myself that are now starting to use AI on basically a daily basis. Like I use AI related products every single day now, right? And I you know, 2 years ago I could not have said that. But the way we've even integrated, you know, with 1000X in the reports feature with with AI now at this point in time, and I'll use AI to also assist me with research in regards to companies and kind of running back and forth with bull case and bear case and oh, what if this happens and kind of like using as like an extra almost like um investor to be kind of like talking with back and forth. Woof. I mean, you know, and there's a lot of other examples that I'm using AI more and more often. So, that's going to be a build that happens for years, right? And so, yeah, I mean, could could we reach a point like that? Yeah, but it might be 2, 4, 6, 10 years from now. So, you know, that's something to just kind of keep in mind there, okay?