TRADING Y ARBITRAJE EN VIVO CON SANTIAGO AMAT

Added: 2026-05-29

[00:00:00]Hello, dear people. Happy Friday.

[00:00:03]We're here in a new live stream. I hope you're hearing me. Hey, you can let me know in the comments. And well, we have a lot to talk about, both on Argentine issues and especially, and we've been following and doing a bit of research and also getting it right and predicting very well, right?, the prices of Bitcoin. Let's take a look at the cryptocurrency market, what's happening with gold, and oil, which are also making interesting movements. So, well, let's see a little bit of everything. Hey, let me know if you can hear and see it okay, okay? Okay, I'm just now logging into YouTube Studio to see if the live stream is happening or not.

[00:00:45]It's cool here in Jujuy, folks. It's pretty cool, but yes, we are live. We're live. It's not double-tracking and it sounds fine, right?

[00:00:57]Hello, Gonzalo. Hey, thanks so much for being tuned in to the live stream too.

[00:01:01]Fabri present. And well, it's a pleasure to be here. As always, before we start we'll do the publicity. Today we had a technical problem with the computer, but everything can be fixed, and well, we have to change this camera that always looks kind of frozen. I tend to get distracted and don't take some actions that I should take. Let me know how you're seeing Bitcoin right now, and also if you're making any arbitrage moves, taking advantage of this price difference with the cont, the MEP, the USDT, and well, actually the UST is the same as the cont with settlement, right? And the official dollar.

[00:01:47]Give me a second, guys, I'll broadcast the live stream, I'll send it to the WhatsApp groups. There are already 20 of us at this very moment. Thank you for connecting a little later than usual today.

[00:02:02]Here we are copying and sending it to the distribution groups. We were right, weren't we? How did we predict Bitcoin's trajectory? We speculated that it was more likely to go down. She's not keeping quiet that much, is she? And it continues in a lateral movement channel where we still cannot say that it will go to 65 as many are analyzing or projecting. We'll see how we view it from our technical point of view. There are at least a couple of fundamental ones, but now I'm being guided more by the technical aspects, given that I see a lot of noise and little substance in the context, in the sense that I would have to move the ammeter a little more, uh, the whole external and war situation of the country, of the country, of the world. Uh, I'm spreading the word in the different groups we have and showing it on screen. We're even seeing comments about that.

[00:03:11]I have money. Well, here they tell us, "I have money, what do I do? Do I buy Bitcoin? Do I wait." Go down a little more.

[00:03:18]Staggered purchases as always.

[00:03:20]Staggered purchases as always.

[00:03:22]Well, for me it's the smartest thing one can do, and it's very difficult to go wrong if one buys gradually as one should, because let's be honest, nobody knows what might happen tomorrow and the movements of Bitcoin are not certain. Everything is a matter of probability. So, since everything is a matter of probability, we need to be well diversified to benefit in every situation. We'll see today how we can do it in stages.

[00:03:57]Okay, well, I'll tell you the story and we'll get started, folks. Alright everyone, we're live now, so I'll see you on our YouTube channel, obviously the best finance channel, and here's the link so you can go directly there. So see you on YouTube. Okay, folks, we're here! I was already kind of tired, but then I finished my snack and felt like starting the live stream. Cryptocurrencies with settlement. You have to pay taxes.

[00:04:37]Well, in what sense? If you are arbitraging or buying any security that has that type of exchange rate, such as a bond or a cryptocurrency. Uh, in what terms are you asking me, dear Misael? And thank you so much for being live. Misael is always there.

[00:05:09]Ready. Okay, now we move on to the screens and we find ourselves in this area. Let's enlarge the screen a little so that more can be seen, without the tabs showing. I think it'll look good there, don't you think? We're not going to shrink it. There it is. We'll see. Correct. It's not going to happen, we'll have to see. Let's see. I like that. I like that. I like that. That would be perfect. Well, we've come across the Bitcoin chart. The truth is, we've been predicting very well, very well indeed. I'm going to remove indicator drawings. I'm going to cut this one out so I have it later, as I always like to use it, but we're going to remove the indicator drawing. A bare chart, a chart without indicators, without any projections, showing a possible chart pattern that I don't like very much. You can give each other a shoulder- to-shoulder. Notice that it is already taking this shape where we previously saw this double bottom here. We said that this was a strong bullish pattern and in fact we said that the rise of this pattern has already been completed in this area, breaking this resistance and now this resistance is not a coincidence that it is a new support, that is, that it is a floor.

[00:06:38]Therefore, therefore, uh, watch out for this figure, I don't like it. It is not fully formed yet. That's true, it 's not fully formed. So, keep an eye on this figure, right? So, watch out, because it's already taking on a very similar shape, a head-to-shoulders pattern, which could bring Bitcoin's levels, at least to this area, around 72,000. If the price does this, it would already be in a position where the head and shoulders pattern would have much more credibility or a higher degree of probability of its effect. So if she does that, then we get worried and say that it's already been confirmed, she doesn't do a confirmation, I couldn't find the word.

[00:07:24]Well, first of all, it's trying to form a head-to-head pattern, which I don't entirely like, but if we look at it from another perspective, notice how Bitcoin reached this $2,000 zone, which, by the way, we said Bitcoin was going to reach $82,000.

[00:07:43]We said it on the channel and we made a video with the Bitcoin thumbnail at $2,000.

[00:07:50]Why would it go to $82,000? And I was pretty sure for two reasons, one, we knew that if Bitcoin was going to break this structure, its next ceiling or its next level to overcome was going to be the 82 zone, and another, as we always say, because of the exponential moving average, where we said that the exponential moving average of price was going to be at those levels, and it was at those levels. So we always said, look, it's impressive, impressive. We always say that it works like a price magnet. So, that's why I decided to take the risk, because the truth is I take a big gamble and it's not so good to be risky like that, but I took the risk by saying, "Bitcoin is going to reach $2,000."

[00:08:39]I also saw that it had already broken a structure, I also saw the ETF buying chart and at that moment the bulls were gaining more, market sentiment was changing, Bitcoin was not at all in extreme fear, it was wanting to come out to a neutral level. And also, the most serious market fundamentals didn't really affect Bitcoin, let's say, just like they didn't affect most risk assets, right?

[00:09:10]The context didn't affect US stocks that much either, and therefore Bitcoin was affected a little more, I'd say, than stocks. Therefore, it's not that the context doesn't affect Bitcoin at all; no, what's happening in the context hasn't negatively affected the North American market, and we know the very important correlation that Bitcoin has with the North American market.

[00:09:31]Hey, Lucho, thanks for being on the live stream and thanks for your like. Okay, let's see how we're doing in likes. I know that because of the time, it might be difficult for us to reach our usual numbers. We usually have 100 people live, but we already have 40-43 people watching the live stream right now.

[00:09:50]Thank you so much to everyone who takes the time and likes this post (12 likes). Don't forget to like it, because it really helps us a lot to bring you this content.

[00:10:00]Well, putting that aside, we also said something very important: the market is very hot, it's all at all-time highs, and it's not that a correction in the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq is definitely coming, but everything is very pumped, and we know the positive correlation that Bitcoin has with these indices. So, I'm really scared to buy Bitcoin at $2,000 because I felt like I was buying it at the all-time high.

[00:10:31]Because? Because the other indices, the NASDAQ, the S&P, are at an all- time high, and I think Bitcoin fell when these indices fell. Because? Because it remains a cyclical asset. That's simply why Bitcoin fell. It didn't fall for another fundamental reason. Because? because otherwise the stocks and the rest of the markets would have fallen too. And the reality is that there was a period of time when the S&P went up and Bitcoin fell when their correlation is almost one, their correlation is almost perfect. Here we're going to analyze the SP500 a little bit and notice the difference in the graph.

[00:11:09]And buying Bitcoin at 82 was buying here, which someone might say to me, Santi, well, it's not like it super corrected the chart and no, and I still have that fear and I keep buying Bitcoin. Yes, when it goes down. Remember that I sold around 50% of my holdings in '82 and bought back some of that sale in '76 and now I bought a little bit in '75, very little, but well, I'm averaging and reducing my average purchase price and I also made profits with the sale of Bitcoin. Well, there's not much more to say about the Bitcoin chart, I think, is there? In other words, there isn't much more to this correlation. We already saw, for example, perhaps some gaps in the futures market, but I think that at this moment we depend on what the North American market does, which by the way, by the way, uh, the market has a very high probability that rates will remain the same and a low probability that rates will increase. Interest rates, we all know how this can affect things, but it gives a zero degree of probability to interest rates going down. That's how it is today. So, we have to be very careful with the political measures of the United States, and we all know that the United States is not at its best right now, and also all the conflicts that are behind all of this. So, pay attention and calm down a bit because even though these indices tend to rise in the long term, they make big corrections like the ones we saw here. This correction that happened here was when we were just starting to see or hear a little bit about the war issues that are happening in the world. Well, it made a sharp drop, we're talking about a drop of 9%, so it's big. And now after that drop we had new highs and notice that the new highs should reach approximately 16%.

[00:13:12]Yes, 18%. About 18%. There's a lot of sub-sector and this asset has, I mean, this index has that short B behavior, right?

[00:13:23]It is very common in this index. Look here too. But, but, but we can see ourselves in places where this index has been low for years, it already happened in the past. So, let's not rule out the possibility that history almost always repeats itself. So, let's not rule out that the S&P and the North American market could enter a recession and that it wo n't last such a short time, because we're talking about this correction that happened 49 days ago, that is, it didn't last 49 days, that is, it lasted 49 days, which is nothing in the financial markets, that's not a long time at all.

[00:14:06]So I don't rule out a sharp correction; I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but buying Bitcoin now is like buying at the all-time high in the sense that we all know that if this asset falls, Bitcoin will fall, and it will fall even more. So if you're afraid to buy the S&P 500 right now, you should be afraid to buy Bitcoin right now. Obviously, I can see it in the long term, and if I see it in the long term, the price of Bitcoin is on sale, right? But I honestly take this correlation into account and I hope you do too, because we know they are not independent of each other, especially since Bitcoin is not independent of what the S&P and the Nasdaq do.

[00:14:51]Hey, Matías González, good morning Santi, Professor Bitcoin. Haha, a big hello, Mati.

[00:14:58]Hey, Mati is a student at the faculty, so we're sending him a big hug.

[00:15:02]Thanks for being present in the live stream, it means a lot. " Uh," Lucho del Plata tells me, "I have 5 pesos to buy Bitcoin. If it drops further, I plan to keep buying in wallets."

[00:15:13]Yeah, that's perfect. And whatever you have, if it falls into place, you buy it. I think it's fine, it seems logical to me, and no, look, I'm not saying that people who buy Bitcoin are stupid or that they're doing things wrong. No, I don't say that because I believe Bitcoin will reach 200,000 in the medium term. I'm not even talking about the long term. I believe that Bitcoin reaches 200,000 every 2 years, and I assure you of that. I mean, I assure you. I'm sure of it, right? Uh, but what about Bitcoin? And I've been in the market for several years now, and the truth is I've experienced many Bitcoin crashes, I've experienced many altcoin crashes, I've seen it, I didn't blow up my accounts, but I did lose 70% of my savings during bear markets. And believe me, folks, before Bitcoin pumps up and we reach the levels we need to reach, before we get back to the all-time high and break it, the market is going to give us a big manipulation. Let's assume Bitcoin goes to zero. We're going to see Bitcoin at 50,000. Everyone's saying, "I didn't buy Bitcoin." Everyone in television, right?, is saying that Bitcoin is going to zero, that the new creator of Bitcoin is known, that quantum computers are going to be able to hack the blockchain. Well, we're going to hear all that, and that fear in the market is going to lead to lows that we might not even think we're going to enter there yet.

[00:16:44]No, we can reach 40,000, it even goes to an extreme of 30,000, it wouldn't be crazy.

[00:16:51]Well, after that comes the whole, the whole, the whole path of Roses. But why?

[00:16:55]And it's very simple, weak hands give their Bitcoin to strong hands.

[00:17:01]And who are the strong hands? Those who have the money to cope with those losses. Those who do not gamble 80% of their capital in this market. Those who are waiting for opportunities. The one who has the liquidity, the one who's in charge.

[00:17:14]Politicians don't rule, they don't rule, the one with the cash doesn't rule. The one who has the liquidity to say, "Ah, I see this cheap, I can buy it and it doesn't bother me." I do n't know if this happens to you, but sometimes you see a cheap apartment that's practically free, and you think, "Why do n't I buy it?" Well, those with the cash can take advantage of those opportunities, or they might see a super cheap car and say, "Wow, I can buy it right now." But that's something only someone with the liquidity can do. Because we're all good thinkers, right? Or we can find good opportunities, but in reality, those who have the money are the ones who really have the power to decide. That's what happens with the market; the strong hands take a lot, a lot of Bitcoin from the weak hands. So watch out for that, right?

[00:17:57]Don't think that the path, the new Bitcoin cycles, are going to come in a way that's so easy to speculate on, so easy to bring in, and so easy to make money from. Remember that those who make money represent 5% of the market, and there's a reason for that.

[00:18:11]So, you have to be really sharp and have a good head on your shoulders to be able to make a good profit in this market and also understand it, right? Also understand it. Well, greetings Hernán, thank you for being connected to the live stream. We're already 54 people, let's see how many likes we get, shall we? Let's see, let's see, let's see. 22 likes. Well, thank you very much, everyone.

[00:18:38]They're always quite engaged, and I love this back-and-forth, don't you? Hey, Santi, my dear, what are you going to do with the SpaceX shares? Are you going to buy it in advance? Well, I was very angry, very angry. I was really intrigued by the situation that Binance, in theory, would allow us to buy the shares, or not the shares themselves, but rather to speculate on the price the shares will have when they go public, but it's not possible in our region. I try to do it. Okay, let's see here, we're going to the store here. Look, future futures, eh do, notice that I already have the ticket. I wanted to buy it. Look, it even went up.

[00:19:20]On top of that, it went up. I wanted to buy it here.

[00:19:23]Uh, well, never mind, it's done. I want it, I wanted to buy it. I wanted to buy it today when it went down in price, but they wouldn't let me. He wouldn't let me. Because?

[00:19:35]Because it's not allowed in your region. That's why I do n't carry in vainance.

[00:19:39]Uh, he didn't bother me, he bothered me. So, this is discrimination, let's say. Why can't we buy this beautiful token, let's say, this beautiful pair? Uh, I don't know if you were aware of this Binance news. Did you know or not?

[00:19:57]Here Lucho says, "The best advice is not to put money you need right now, or that you're willing to lose." Yeah, I know what you meant, Lucho. Hey, don't put up money you need for jazz and are willing to lose. I mean, oh, as if you were there. Yes, that's fine, that's fine.

[00:20:17]Like you said. Of course, we don't have to put up any money because if we lose it, it doesn't affect the meter. It's true. Not because we're going to lose the 'v', but because we're going to have a very strong emotional response.

[00:20:31]Uh, well, here we have the speculation ticker, let's say. In other words, what this basically does is predict the price that SpaceX stock will have against USDT. And well, first notice how it was pumped.

[00:20:49]It reached 224.47.

[00:20:51]Ah, no no no I don't want to lie to you guys, but I really said today, if it goes down I'll buy it. And it started to go down, down, down, down. I wanted to buy it, I don't remember the price, but I think it was around 193, because I remember the patent and look, I tried to buy it and notice that putting here that we buy 50% for 20 intensity was going to buy leveraged, let's say.

[00:21:14]Obviously, it's a token to lull this. No, no, no, I don't see it as anything serious given that this is market speculation, but look, when it says " buy long" here, even Binance, which I think is correct, gives us a disclaimer where they tell us that overactive futures trading is risky and so on, and that if we don't leverage, we have to be aware of the risk we carry. Perfect.

[00:21:34]That's normal. That happens when you buy low-cap tokens or when you're heavily leveraged. I think this poster is appropriate.

[00:21:43]What I don't think is right is that when I try to buy it, this little message pops up saying, "Dear user, according to our terms and conditions and in compliance with local regulations, these features are not available in your region." I was furious, let's say. I really wanted to buy it and I would have made some money, you know? But anyway, I don't know why. I do n't know if it's a regulation, like Binance is a PCAB, since it's a virtual asset service provider.

[00:22:08]We're going to see more and more issues like this, because maybe there's a regulation from the National Securities Commission that I'm unaware of, or maybe it's not like that, that says you ca n't trade these types of assets. I do n't know why it ca n't be done in Argentina. It really bothered me, and I would have loved to see the trading of this pair during the live stream. I really would have loved it. I wanted it to be that way and I wanted to have it in my portfolio to show you all. Notice that it's no coincidence that during the live stream I was asked about the stocks that are going to be listed in... SpayX. So, well.

[00:22:41]Uh, hi Santi, it's José from Uruguay.

[00:22:44]I'm shorting Bitcoin from 77,600.

[00:22:47]Well, congratulations. Good job, good job.

[00:22:51]Keep in mind that it's at a bottom now, Bitcoin isn't at a bottom, so it could bounce. You manage your strategy however you want, right? I'm just telling you my thoughts, the first thing that comes to mind, but everyone is responsible for their own decisions. I'm shorting Bitcoin. I got the idea that you advise me to stay. Oh, sorry. What do you advise?

[00:23:12]Uh, that I stay at 77,745.

[00:23:17]Look, Christian content, uh, I would tell you to see if that operation is short or long term. If it's long term, well, that's it, it's long term, let's say, you're buying Bitcoin, and it only dropped a little, right? That's it. Now, if it's a short-term trade, well, you have to accept the loss and set a stop loss on your trade, showing how much you're willing to lose. I think now It might have a small rebound. Let's analyze the projection a bit.

[00:23:47]We're coming here. Uh, let's put Bitcoin against the dollar here. Okay, let's look at the levels now, the levels we think Bitcoin will reach. So let's start sketching the chart a bit.

[00:24:06]Uh, Federico, I was thinking of betting on the DXZ fund, which includes SpaceX, but I don't know. And it's a gamble, my friend.

[00:24:17]You said it right, it's a gamble. If I made that purchase, it was a gamble. So, I was going to go, honestly, I was going to leverage it 20 times, prepared to lose $150 or gain $500. That's how I saw it, and on top of that, my friend Binance wouldn't let me buy it, and maybe we would have already made about $100 in profit, but oh well, things happen, we can't just keep complaining about something that's a regional issue.

[00:24:43]Uh, well, going back to the Quan Fury chart, let's analyze the following. Where can Bitcoin go?

[00:24:51]First thing, the first thing that worries me, where I say it could go further down, is what we just saw: the head and shoulders pattern that formed. I'll delete it because we've already seen it. Okay, that's the main point.

[00:25:02]Second, Bitcoin is at a clear bottom.

[00:25:05]Why do I say this is a bottom?

[00:25:06]Because, look, previously, it was a top. So, we all know that for a bottom to be reliable, to be trustworthy, and for us to have good reliability, it's because it was previously a top.

[00:25:21]Well, this bottom where it is, where we are currently, where we are in this situation, is a very good bottom. Why? Because it wasn't just tested as a bottom, it was tested as a bottom on other occasions, as we see here, as we see here, and as we see here. Therefore, we are in an area where the probability of a rebound increases, so be careful if you are short- term trading and not taking profits, or only partially taking profits, because Bitcoin could easily rebound now since we are in a price rejection situation. The price is Rejected in this area. We'll enlarge it so it's a little clearer, but the price is rejected. Another thing that also increases the limited deduction we can make is that the volume is small. There was little volume in this decline. This wick is thick, yes, but with very low volume. What does that mean? That it doesn't take much money to move the price of Bitcoin.

[00:26:23]What there was, however, was a very small rejection in this area.

[00:26:28]So the asset, the market isn't seeing it as, ah, bid price, Bitcoin, I'll buy it, no, the market isn't seeing it that way, at least for now. There were enough purchases to stop the decline. We agree on that. There were enough purchases to stop the decline. Perfect, I'll take that.

[00:26:51]But notice that there wasn't a price rejection. Therefore, we need to be careful because we are in an area, an area where there could be volatility because there is low volume, because there are indecision patterns. Here we have an indecision pattern forming. This candlestick looks like a marubosu. It looks like an amarobosu. It's a marosu. You'd have to remove this wick. But what's going on with this candlestick?

[00:27:16]It's accompanied by low volume.

[00:27:18]So, it doesn't tell me much, it doesn't give me much confidence about the price direction, but it's a trigger to keep in mind. Well, something very important, I mean, very important, is the following. For me, honestly, we're more likely to see it go down than up. I'll be honest, that's what I think. I'm not saying you should do what I think, how I trade. However, I did make partial Bitcoin purchases in this area. Around 76, 75, all over this area, I made small purchases, very small, but I did make them. But why? Because I sold part of my holdings at 82, as I said before. Another thing, it couldn't break the 200-day moving average on the daily chart. This is very important, folks.

[00:28:07]Why? Because we see that when Bitcoin approaches and is a price magnet, Look, it's a price magnet. Notice how the chart always tends to gravitate towards it. Let's keep looking here.

[00:28:26]Let's keep highlighting it here, okay? There it is. Okay, notice how it gravitates towards it, but doesn't break through. Well, what does that tell us? We're still in a downtrend, and that's what happened here.

[00:28:40]When Bitcoin doesn't break the 200-period moving average decisively, we'll see in the past if it ever did, which it probably did, but we're still in a downtrend.

[00:28:53]Look here, when Bitcoin comes to reach it and rejects it, it comes to reach it, rejects it, makes a false breakout and rejects it, it falls a lot. Why?

[00:29:11]Because we're still in a downtrend. It would have been great if Bitcoin had broken the 200-period moving average decisively. It couldn't. It couldn't.

[00:29:20]And that confirms for me, the price magnets multiplied, and that confirms that we're still in a downtrend. On one hand, that, and look, I haven't seen the moving average yet. 50, but I estimate that the 50-period moving average might even be in this area and about to be crossed by the price chart, which would make the downtrend stronger or bring with it more volatility. Let's use an exponential moving average here. 50 periods, look, right? I mean, it was obvious, guys, was n't it? No, no, I'm not a magician, it was obvious we were going to see it there. I had to paint it red.

[00:30:08]Well, this is worrying. This is worrying. Let's look at the downtrend. Let's mark the trend on the daily chart to try to gather more information. We saw this trend at the beginning, Bitcoin broke through it, and now the trend, the only thing it's telling me is that the rate of price decline has decreased, that is, it's going down to a greater or lesser extent. That's all that happened, but we're facing this trend. There were situations of deceleration, as we see here, I'm going to put this in green, there were situations of deceleration of the trend Bearish, as we had here [sigh] downtrend acceleration lines, therefore the chart simply shows we are still in a downtrend, confirmed by the drop to 200 and very much confirmed by the price falling below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, my position, and I'm saying this here and I could be wrong, and don't do what I think, is that Bitcoin is going to continue falling. Obviously, in the midst of all this, Bitcoin is going to have a move, it could have a move like this, continue falling.

[00:31:27]Yes, yes, yes, yes, obviously. Or maybe not, I could be wrong, yes, but the chart is practically screaming at me, it's telling me that Bitcoin is going to continue falling. We haven't seen the Bitcoin low yet, and I still maintain that, and since I maintained it and had the good fortune, if you want to call it that, to analyze and see the price at 82, I also have the courage to say that Bitcoin is going to continue falling. We haven't seen any lows yet. It could be that the low is here, it could be that the low It's at 59, yes, it's very close, but it's not there yet, it's not there yet for the trend, for the trend reversal, and for the start of the cycle, at least that's my view. Let's see what people say. Hi, Santiago, I'd like to learn with you live.

[00:32:11]Okay, here we are. Uh, let me know what you want to learn. If you want us to look at something else, we can, obviously something within my area of ​​expertise, right?

[00:32:18]Uh, I think this cycle is going to be slower in Bitcoin and it's going to be a matter of patience. Absolutely, Lucho.

[00:32:23]Uh, here the ones who make money are the patient ones. That's how it is. Uh, here Federico tells us, "I was thinking of gambling the fund." Oh, well, I read that. That was an old comment. So, selling, right? Well, well, we're already starting to see it as a casino, huh?

[00:32:41]Emerson, so selling, let's say, everything in the red. No, I don't trade Bitcoin. Okay, I used to buy Bitcoin, but not anymore. Now I take advantage of the dips, I buy patiently, I know it's going to rebound, but I also know my portfolio is going to be even more in the red, I know that too, but I see that as a great opportunity.

[00:33:06]Santi says, "If you check TR View, there's a lot of volume around 83-85. Before it drops, it would have to clear that area to fall again, in my opinion." I don't know what you think, huh?

[00:33:21]Yes, maybe, but remember, Lucas, we're... I mean, I agree with that analysis, but only if nothing's happening in the overall context. If it's trending linearly, well, I agree, remember that. So, I think that given market sensitivity, it's going to be more of a sell-off. That's what I think. That's what I think. Well, I wanted to show you a chart, it must be this one. We've already seen this chart, but just to remind you that in other... Cycles, in the situation we find ourselves in now, that is, this line here, is represented by May 22, 2022. Well, four years ago we were in this situation, that is, it's comparing the previous Bitcoin bearish cycle with the current Bitcoin bearish cycle. Well, look how the price falls. The price falls, the price drops. The same as in the previous cycle and the same as in the cycle before that.

[00:34:28]I don't give much importance to this cycle because this is when Bitcoin was created, that is, Bitcoin is a very young asset. If we think about it, Bitcoin is a very young asset. So I don't pay much attention to this 2009 analysis because it had just emerged that Bitcoin's value then is ephemeral. But if I go by 2013 to 2014, look, and if we go by 2016 to 2018, look, and if we go by 2020 to 2024, look, and if we go by 2024, we also have to consider that Bitcoin is still cyclical. It keeps forming patterns, and there's nothing, absolutely nothing, to tell us that this Bitcoin cycle has changed. In other words, there's nothing to tell us, "Hey, look, you know Bitcoin has already broken this 4- year structure." You know that we're not going to have a bearish cycle that drops too much, right? It's not going to last, it's going to last 40, 3 months, 4 months, this downward cycle which I don't think is very difficult, very difficult.

[00:35:38]This cycle lasts us at least 11 months, minimum, minimum. And we're going to see it, we're going to see it. Um, another thing I wanted to show you guys, this is how the market sees the probability of maintaining rates, that is, that they will be at the same levels between 3.5 and 3.75. And it assigns a 3.5 probability to the increase. The question here is, what probability does the market assign to a decrease in interest rates today?

[00:36:05]zero, zero probability, which is not a very positive thing for Bitcoin.

[00:36:11]Obviously the falls are also related to this, right? I mean, it's not like, yes or no, it's not that this is immune to the falls, right? The market is somewhat pessimistic and that's causing prices to fall. Here's something very important, if there's anything, Halvin was ahead of his time, uh, let's see, well, I know what you meant, I mean, I know it's poorly expressed, of course, the best. Yes, the halving doesn't come early, the halving happens at the same rate, but I understand you, I understand you. Yes, I know what you meant. I'm clarifying this in case the audience doesn't understand, but let's go to the TradingView chart.

[00:36:52]And here I want to, I want to take this right that I give you, the right that it is true that it behaved differently because if we look here these were the highs, the highs of Bitcoin before the last bull cycle and the halvin, the last halvin of Bitcoin, uh, if not, I mean, if I'm not mistaken, when was the last halvin of Bitcoin? I mean, I know the year, no, obviously, but I know it was 2024, but what date was it? What date was the Halvin? Uh, I don't remember the month.

[00:37:31]Okay, let's go, let's find it. Let's go find him. Halvin Bitcoin. Last date. Let's see, April 20th. April 20.

[00:37:42]Wait a second, I lost them, guys. Here we are. And here we are. Well, on April 20th. We're going to postpone April 20th.

[00:37:53]I know what you mean.

[00:37:56]April 20th, huh?

[00:37:58]April 20, May.

[00:38:02]Here's something that's true, what you say about Bitcoin surpassing all-time highs before the Halvin is true, that that had never happened before. Yes, that's right, I'll take it. True, but look at one that we can't say surpassed the historical maximum, but rather reached it, which is also true that it didn't do so and then came the cycle, the bullish cycle, but that's one versus how many. How many against one, because if we start thinking and compare it with this structure, uh, I'm going to look for the dates of the different Bitcoin halvings to plot it well.

[00:38:54]And here it is. Okay, we have July 9, 2016. July 9, 2016.

[00:39:02]July 9.

[00:39:08]Okay, well, I'll put it somewhere. I put 29, yes I know, no, but we'll put it there more or less close. It doesn't have to be that exact either. And we have 2016, which was a good year, that's already in the past. We now have 2020.

[00:39:32]Uh, it was May 11th, it was more or less around this time, January, February, uh, May, May 11th. And well, we've already marked it. This is enough for me. Well, the first thing I want to say is that if we go by the fact that Bitcoin surpassed highs in this, before the Halvin, which is fine, it broke something, we have in all Halvin, right when it happens the market falls. It happened in the previous one, look at this one. It does n't seem like I have to pay for the premium version of TradingView here; it expired and I didn't put money on the card. Notice that we don't see it that much, but we put it there and it fell before the Halvin one. It was the 11th, we're not going to lie, May 11th. Notice that it moved laterally and kind of fell. And we're going to the very last halving where I have to break structures, but look, it rises and falls. So whenever the halving happens, Bitcoin falls, for example. So there's another condition that wasn't broken.

[00:40:47]If not, if we look closely, and to make it a little more thorough what we're talking about, let's see, I've lost track of you, I want to see this screen. Yes, if we look here, uh, so that we are a little more thorough and so that people understand, notice that there are always similar patterns. And what are the similar patterns? And durability.

[00:41:10]The number of days the halvin lasts is always more or less the same, well, the halvin and also reaching its maximum.

[00:41:17]The days last more or less the same.

[00:41:19]Notice that in this area we are on December 12th and 30th, 2017, and here notice that we are at our maximum on December 12th. December 12th and November 26th in this section of the cycle at Máximos. And if we look here, notice that we are in November where Bitcoin reached its peak.

[00:41:50]Tell me if this isn't cyclical. Tell me if there are n't such exact patterns. There's no asset that tells you that. There is no asset that is as cyclical as Bitcoin. This is also because he 's very young, isn't it? It's also because there are US elections happening right there, and so on. Obviously, I think it was well thought out when Bitcoin was created to coincide with the US elections. But it's impressive, Bitcoin always reaches its maximum in October or November. And notice that the minimum, which is more or less in this area, is also similar; that is, the minimums are usually similar as well. Notice that this section marks the minimum and it's usually around the same time. He marked it here. Yes, look, here the minimum is marked by the uh in January, on January 13, 2023. January 13, 2023.

[00:42:45]Here the minimum is marked by the uh, let's see, let's see, the minimum will be around here.

[00:42:53]It could be that this is the minimum that would be in December, if that's the case, right? I think it's there. Okay, let's do it this way. Let's enlarge the graph. If this is the minimum and it's in December. One marks it in January, the other in December. One month difference.

[00:43:08]One month difference. And here we go.

[00:43:13]No, let's see, let's go here and the minimum. Let's see, let's look at the minimum here. I don't know, I'm not going to take this, but the fact that it's marked there might be something there.

[00:43:28]And this one is in January. [snort] In January. I mean, the coincidence is amazing. It's impressive.

[00:43:34]So, to say that this asset is not cyclical, to say that Bitcoin is not cyclical, no, I still consider it an asset that shows 4-year patterns that are very similar, and I act accordingly. Obviously, it is mixed with the politics, economics, and geopolitical context of the entire world, especially North America. I'll say it again, and I apologize for being so repetitive, but I have to insist because it's what I believe and how I manage my money. Yes, I do believe that Bitcoin is modified and affected by the context, but at the same time, it respects the patterns very perfectly. It will become less cyclical over time, yes, it will become less cyclical over time, but that doesn't mean my decisions will be outside the logic of the 4-year patterns.

[00:44:28]Hey Ian, good evening, thanks so much for stopping by the live stream. Uh, I think that happened because of the Bitcoin ETFs. Yes, yes, because of ETFs. That's true, you're absolutely right. I agree with you there too. Yes, yes, yes. And there was no euphoria in 2025 either. The only price increases were at the end of 2024 when Trump won. Yes. Um, here Tin says, "Hi, Santi, how are you? I just joined. Well, a big hello, brother. Thanks a lot for stopping by the live stream. And well, now, I wanted to talk a little bit about gold, since we have gold in our positions, uh, it's, well, it's at a floor, right? A lot of people were saying it was going up, but it's at a small floor.

[00:45:15]Obviously, it's a correction after all these increases, but it's in an area where I bought a little.

[00:45:23]Obviously, I always enter gradually because now the strategy isn't short-term, right? I manage my portfolio according to what's happening in the market, but I see it in an interesting area, to be honest. I see it as a very interesting one.

[00:45:37]Let's look at the oil chart.

[00:45:40]Let's look at the ETF with usage, which we actually moved here and it went down. And here, if we go into our Quan Fury account, you'll see that, well, the Argentine market reacted quite well in recent days, uh, especially today and Yesterday. Loma Negra and Cresut are giving me a lot of profit. And if we look at the trading history, closed positions, and we made a new short position on oil. Here we made a new short position on oil. Notice that it was on May 20th.

[00:46:09]We closed it, we closed it with a profit, and the trade we made live, in the previous live stream, we had a profit.

[00:46:17]We had a profit with the pair. Do you remember that we made the live trade of Ada Cardano? Well, we had a profit, we went long, if I remember correctly. Let's see. Uh, we didn't go short, we went short, well, we went with a profit. I wouldn't enter the altcoin market. And here I want to ask you a question, or rather a concern I have, about what you think about the altcoin market. Uh, we can't ignore the fact that the altcoin market was really nonexistent compared to other cycles. The performance, most altcoins left much to be desired, and today they are at rock bottom. I mean, it 's a really badly hit market.

[00:47:00]I think 90% of altcoins are going to disappear, they're going to tend towards zero, and they already are. I don't know what you think.

[00:47:07]XRP will be left, maybe crypto like Solana. And notice I said maybe, it's not just my opinion, okay? And cryptos like Cardano, which might have a really good ecosystem, a lot to offer, but there's no liquidity, no money inflow, no cash. That'll remind me of the NFTs from the previous cycle. I don't know what you all think about altcoins. Let's look at some charts. Let's look at some charts.

[00:47:37]First, let's look at charts like Ada Cardano's.

[00:47:44]I sold Cardano at a loss, and you know I don't like selling at a loss, and it wasn't a short-term movement.

[00:47:51]I accepted the loss. Look at the chart, people. Look at the chart. I mean, literally, if we look at it in retrospect, this looks like a company that went bankrupt and... It collapsed and is no longer listed on the stock exchange.

[00:48:12]I mean, the drop was 92%.

[00:48:19]92%.

[00:48:22]We're in this situation with one of the cryptocurrencies with the largest market capitalization. I mean, I see this as extremely serious, much more serious than others have said, and it's something that isn't being discussed, something I haven't seen anyone else talking about.

[00:48:38]Surely there are others, and I don't want to come across as the only one, the philosophical thinker, the number one expert on cryptocurrencies and this market that I love, right? But this isn't being discussed.

[00:48:50]I mean, how is it possible that Bitcoin didn't fall to its lowest point and is in this area? And how is it possible that Bitcoin has already recovered since reaching $65,000?

[00:49:01]It recovered, and we have cryptocurrencies with this market capitalization, this price.

[00:49:08]Look at the Solana chart; Solana is doing a little better, it's not doing so badly, but look at the Solana chart, where it is, right? And if we look at the peak, Solana did the same thing as Terius, right? It reached its peak, it reached its highest point, but it fell.

[00:49:25]Notice that the chart is very similar to Ethereum's, but it's dead, flattened. And if we look at Ethereum, it's doing a little better, but we're talking about the number two. But look at the chart, almost the same, it's a little better in terms of percentage, and exactly the same, exactly the same as Solana. They reached their peaks, but didn't break through.

[00:49:50]And to say they reached their peaks, right? Because they're one of the few that managed to reach their maximum. If we go to XRP, XRP fares a little better than Teron, but this is due to more fundamental issues. But XRP, look, it also broke its all-time high.

[00:50:10]It broke its all-time high, but now it's also completely flattened at a floor.

[00:50:15]And we're talking about these cryptocurrencies being the best performers of the previous cycle, that is, the best, and it's not 20, it's not two, three cryptocurrencies with a history.

[00:50:29]So I really put in I want to open a small discussion here about what you think about altcoins right now. I think many, many more than we think, are going to disappear.

[00:50:46]Here it says, "There are worse things, look at Polcadot." Yes, well, that's what I'm getting at. That's what I'm getting at. Look at Polcadot, you understand? What we're seeing are the best-performing cryptocurrencies.

[00:51:01]Absolutely. I agree that the funds are going elsewhere. The funds are going elsewhere. For the alt season to happen, for the altcoin market to rise and pump again, what has to happen? The following has to happen.

[00:51:17]Bitcoin liquidity has to migrate to Ethereum, and that liquidity has to be so large that some of it migrates to altcoins. Now, what happens? 90% of the liquidity in Bitcoin remains in Bitcoin. Very little of that liquidity goes to Ethereum, and from that little bit that remains, they get... Crumbs to other cryptocurrencies.

[00:51:42]Uh, hype is good. Yes, well, totally. There are issues here, we're not going to see hype, it's not listed, I think, right? But we can see it on TradingView. It happens that they have policies of only including the cryptocurrencies with the highest capitalization.

[00:51:58]Uh, but I want to, I want us to look a little bit before we continue, at the dominance chart, the Bitcoin dominance chart.

[00:52:21]What, I'm embarrassed, guys, for not having paid for the premium subscription?

[00:52:25]Well, look, uh, here, look, it's down. And this isn't that it rotated, no, this is the dominance of the altcoins, but because what we have here is that this liquidity no longer exists in the market, it no longer exists.

[00:52:40]Let's look at the, look at the dominance of Ethereum.

[00:52:47]Look at the dominance of Ethereum at the bottom. At the bottom. I mean, there is no, there is no, there is no liquidity. The funds don't go there. The money doesn't buy the altcoins. The Money isn't going to altcoins. And if we look at the chart of dominant altcoins, well, it's a little nicer, but... and well, here's something very important. What do they want this to go up to? To the Bitcoin stocks. The Bitcoin stocks are at maximum capitalization.

[00:53:25]Let's do 100 - btc.d - eth.pund - usd.d USDC.D.

[00:53:41]Let's see if I can interpret it like this.

[00:53:43]Hmm, it seems to me the chart is a bit broken, but if we look at it down to the low, it does n't seem to me that it's completely broken, but it is telling me that there is no liquidity in the market. Basically, that's textbook. Okay, let's see where we are. We're here.

[00:54:11]Ah, well, I wanted to show you the chart of the buy and sell of the ETF in Spot and basically what the market is telling us in this area is that all these last few days there was much more selling volume of the Bitcoin ETF, especially the LIT, which is the ETF where... You can buy these types of assets, which wouldn't be buying Bitcoin directly, but basically what you do is buy the ETF. There's no money, no money, and no money in altcoins, especially.

[00:54:44]The other payment is for those who use too many indicators; if you know how to read a chart, the payment isn't necessary. Yes, whatever the reason for paying, I make the payment. Lucho basically does it to avoid that advertising. Simply for that reason, exactly, I don't use that many indicators. Besides, if I do use them, let's see if, coincidentally, the Hash Rivons is there. I think it's not there, it's not even close to being active, but I wanted to see. Yes, no, it's not trading sideways. No, there's nothing, there's nothing, there's no indicator that moves my pulse much these days. Besides, it's like everyone builds their positions using moving averages and buying. Okay, do you want us to talk a little bit about why the UST is so expensive in Argentina? Talk a little more about arbitrage, or should we continue? Analyzing the crypto market? Guys, we're already 55 minutes into the live stream. A big shout-out to Isaías Salinas, thanks for being here, my dear friend. Thank you very much. Uh, and well, let's see, can we talk about why USDT is so expensive and also a little bit about arbitrage that I've been testing and am still testing? Uh, new videos about that are coming soon, right?

[00:56:04]We investigated why USDT is so expensive in Argentina. We have the explanation and we'll also make a video exclusively about that.

[00:56:11]Uh, a little bit about Argentina. Perfect, perfect. Okay, I want to move on to this working paper we made here.

[00:56:22]Let's put it blank here and start the presentation.

[00:56:27]Okay, if we can see, for example, the cash settlement rate is 1490 and we can observe that the crypto is 1494, the rest of the dollars, the official rate, the blue rate, are 1435 and 1432, it's crazy, the difference is a difference of 4-5% if we go, for example, to pages like Crypto Yeah, old reliable, if we go here to dollars, you 're buying the cheapest UST on the market, 1 uh, at 4.7% more expensive, and selling it at 3.3% more expensive. Guys, another thing I didn't like about Binance, did you see the email they sent saying your USDC is now worth more? Sell USDC and you get dollars at 2.3% more expensive. It's like, "Hey, they want to buy my USDC super cheap, let's say." I'm buying it at 5%, he's selling it to me at a bargain price and giving it to me as a promotion. I don't know if you saw that email. Uh, in the WhatsApp group, which by the way, is in the video description, the WhatsApp group is totally free and also the Telegram which is totally free. In addition, there's also my invitation code for Quan Fury, which is where I trade, and there are no fees for opening and closing a position. And also, if you register with my invitation code and deposit 50 USDT or more, you will receive a reward that is not a trading bonus, but rather something that is withdrawable, ranging from $ 3 to $250 in cryptocurrencies and stocks.

[00:58:04]Uh, well, what I was going to say, what I was going to say is the following. Uh, Vainas notifies us that he could give us the USSC at a cheaper price. Well, watch out for that.

[00:58:17]Because? Because the crypto dollar is very expensive in Argentina. If I go to USDC, to see what price we can buy it at, it's at 4.8% on Binance. And look, here's the point. Look here, Binance sells to you at 4.8% more expensive, but when you want the bills, when you sell them yours, they buy them from you at 2.5% more expensive, that is, more than a 2% difference.

[00:58:46]Therefore, don't sell, Susco, it's quite expensive to enter the crypto market, at least through the banking system and the official dollar exchange rate. And why does this happen? First, these are market expectations, and also, first and foremost, the official dollar is a very limited dollar.

[00:59:08]What do I mean by limited? It's a dollar that's in the bank at most. If the bank has it available, you can take that dollar, withdraw it, and save it and spend it in Argentina or hoard it under the mattress. What do the official dollar and the cash dollar have in common? It is very difficult for that dollar to leave the country, it is very difficult for that dollar to travel, it is very difficult for us to buy or import or do any business with that dollar, given the official rate, the procedure to take the official dollar out of the country. I've already tried it at three banks. Phew! It's happening to me, but I'm going to go gray, let's say, from how much I'm complaining, and I even have banking contacts, right? It's not that I don't have banking contacts, I have many banking contacts, I have a good relationship with my banking agent. They have been the same agents for years. And if I can't do it, even though I have a good relationship and I'm dedicated to this, imagine someone who just talks to support at a bank.

[01:00:10]So, taking the official dollar abroad is very difficult. It's very difficult. Just like the dollar bill.

[01:00:17]To take the dollar bill out of the country, firstly you are limited by the sum of 10,000 by the WIF and secondly you have to travel to another country. So it's also a hassle to get it out. What dollar isn't a bard to pull out? Which dollar is the easiest to withdraw? How many dollars can be spent with a single transaction? There are two: the crypto dollar and the cash settlement dollar. Therefore, the freedom that CL and USDT give us today costs 5% more.

[01:00:50]Today the market gives that value a name and surname and today it is 5%, which is truly insane. That's why the CCL is so expensive.

[01:01:04]This explanation is good, folks. I know many of you are going to say, "Well, what do I do about that?"

[01:01:08]One gets a little bit of an idea of ​​where the market is headed. When you understand where those numbers come from, you can make better decisions because you're saying, "Ah, wait, if the USD is expensive it's because there are many people demanding it."

[01:01:24]And if there are many people demanding it, it's because they also want to take money out of the country or buy goods abroad. Or it could also be a market expectation that the market is a little uncertain.

[01:01:39]So, well, that, that's very important, very important. First, there is the first reason, but there are several reasons. This is the primary reason why the crypto dollar is so expensive and the cash settlement rate is so high.

[01:01:54]Okay, we can see here that Bitcoin is being bought in pesos, the exchange rate is 1493. Ethereum is also 1493, and the UST is 1483.

[01:02:06]Click here if we want to buy in dollars.

[01:02:07]Look, this was yesterday, right? I think it's already increased by 4.5. Today, the price to buy is 4.8. Okay, it's not a huge increase, but it did increase and it's trending upwards. A year ago I made a video of an OTC table where I closed the price of the crypto dollar in crypto, I clearly remember that no, no, no, he's not sponsoring me or anything. I describe the operations, I say what I talk about, where I lose, and I set up an OTC table that I recorded and I had bought 2%.

[01:02:41]The number of people who criticized me for buying the 2%, the number of people who told me, "No, that's a terrible purchase, how are you going to pay for that? Well, you might as well buy it on the black market." I knew that at some point I was going to profit from that, and even then I started farming more UST and staking it on Quan Fury and also on Nexo. So it was a win-win situation; I earned 2% plus the interest it generated that year. So, if they gave me a confirmed interest rate, that gives me around a 6% annual effective rate, and with the 2% from the sale, I had 8%.

[01:03:20]So you have to see that play. You have to know how to interpret when it's cheap and when it's expensive. It's very important. It's very important. And I think that many times we understand things, we understand what's happening in the market, and we don't act. You have to act many times, and you have to lose your fears and also listen to your fears. Well, continuing with the explanation, first in Okay, let's move on. The crypto dollar also has a strong correlation with the cash-settled dollar; it's almost impossible. I'm not saying it's never happened because it has happened at some point in history, and it could happen again because we live in a capricious and highly regulated market like Argentina's, but it's very difficult for the crypto dollar and the cash-settled dollar to go in different directions. They have a more perfect correlation than the SAMP 500 and Bitcoin.

[01:04:22]Therefore, that's very important. Here, Jorge says to me, "Can you explain it again?" What, Jorge? Tell me specifically what, because there's a delay between YouTube and what I'm broadcasting now, a small delay. So tell me what, and... and... well, perfect. When is it cheap and when is it expensive?

[01:04:43]When... I don't know if you remember, I do n't know if you remember, but let's see it here so you understand what I'm saying. So you understand what I'm saying. This, this is the dollar price chart. Here, here we're going to put what What exchange rate do we want? I'm going to keep the blue dollar, the MEP (Mercado Electrónico de Pagos), we're going to have a single MEP, the official dollar, and the crypto dollar. This MEP will be the dollar with settlement. Okay, that's it.

[01:05:12]Well, and here we're going to put it in 4 hours.

[01:05:17]I want you to understand the following diagram, because if you didn't understand it, it's because I didn't explain it perfectly. But what I'm going to say is, first, look at the degree of correlation. This, this red line you see here is the dollar with everything settled. The orange line is the crypto dollar. It's practically the same drawing. That's what I mean by a near-one correlation. A one correlation is when it's a perfect correlation.

[01:05:43]Bitcoin, for example, and Ethereum would have a one correlation if they go up and down by the same magnitude.

[01:05:48]Well, with the crypto dollar and the CCL (Contado con Liquidación) dollar, it's almost one, and there are no assets that tell us it's almost one. Well, the crypto dollar, the crypto dollar, this often happens, look, the crypto dollar, remember that It's the yellow one, right? When the crypto dollar is below the MEP dollar, which, you know, is very rare, but let's look at the orange here. Look when it positions itself here, for example, here we have to make a connection.

[01:06:26]Here, it connects at these levels where the crypto dollar is below the MEP or the official dollar, or they're at par.

[01:06:42]That's when, in dollars, the credit dollar is cheap, and that's when you have to buy and when you have to sell when this happens. When does this happen? So, what we see here is this 4% gap. And notice that this gap, while it's been there for quite a while, right? Notice that it's been there since... and yes, for quite a while, it's been there since February 23, 2026, we're talking about 3 months ago.

[01:07:17]Well, but now it's bigger than ever. Well, and this gap is what tells me, "Hey, watch out, the UST is expensive in dollars." This... Let's think about this in dollars. Uh, I buy USDC because I need the cheapest transfer for the exchange. Yes, totally.

[01:07:39]Of course, totally. The official dollar at Brew Bank is much cheaper than, uh, 1425.

[01:07:46]Uh, well, yes, a great deal. I think, look, I didn't see it today, but it must be 1410 because it's more or less following those prices.

[01:07:55]More or less following those prices.

[01:07:57]Well, so what I'm saying is that you have to know how to read when you're buying low and when you're buying high. When I bought at Notec, I made the video, and let's see, I have to look for it. I want to, if you want, if you want me to show the channel as I see it, guys, or you're not interested, uh, but I'll look for the video. Uh, I buy OTC Dollar MP Santiago Amat. Let's see, let's see if it's here.

[01:08:37]Well, here I am. This was a year ago. This was a year ago. Well, I make $0,000 in this arbitrage. OTC Auto MP table. Well, here's what I did Um, I bought dollars with pesos, and then with those dollars I bought cryptocurrencies. Let's see if that's all there. V. Look, here it kind of explains the arbitrage, but I want to see if that's all there.

[01:09:06]Here I had done... Yes, here. Well, I combined it with a car arbitrage and I earned $5,000 and traded in for a better car, basically. But then with the dollars I bought OTC crypto, which was 2%. Everyone was saying to me, "How are you going to pay 2%?" I told them, "But it's cheap, it's going to get more expensive." But why? Because historically it's cheap to buy at that price.

[01:09:33]Um, why not think that the official dollar is undervalued instead of the crypto dollar being expensive?

[01:09:41]First of all, because normally the crypto dollar is more expensive than the official dollar.

[01:09:52]Secondly, there are a lot of dollars in the country. Today the Central Bank has accumulated a lot of dollars. It 's not a matter of lack. In dollars, because if it were a matter of a lack of dollars, I'd understand. But no, the free market dollar, the dollar that can travel, is appreciating more. How do I see it?

[01:10:14]Hey, Santi, did you see the Coin Depo rate? I checked it a few days ago and so far so good.

[01:10:20]Withdrawals take quite a while, but it's great.

[01:10:23]Yes, yes, yes, I saw them. No, it doesn't have incredible rates. But well, I'm a little scared about withdrawals, right?

[01:10:30]Yes, I'm a little scared about withdrawals. Yes, yes, yes. You have to be careful with that. I like things fast, right now, and they give me security, especially on crypto platforms. I have my money, a little bit of my money in Coin Depo, obviously, but watch out for the risks. Watch out for the risks. Um, bro, are you going to talk about Pix and AstroPay arbitrage? Topic for the next video. I have n't done it yet, to be honest.

[01:10:54]I've been very busy, very busy. I've been doing other types of arbitrage, but I'll get to it.

[01:10:58]to do. The gap is still there. I saw it in the WhatsApp group.

[01:11:02]Yes, I saw it in the WhatsApp group.

[01:11:04]Well, here I wanted to show the correlation that we saw there.

[01:11:11]And here, answering that question of why think that the official dollar is cheap and the cash dollar isn't expensive, whatever. First of all, and this is very important, the issue of the restrictions, which are old, right? We're talking about September 2025, which tells us what it says? It tells us, "In any case, the entity must have a sworn statement from the client in which they state that they commit to not directly or indirectly or on behalf of third parties, buying securities with settlement in foreign currency from the moment they require access and for 90 days." What does this, which seems like basic Chinese, mean? Basically, that if you buy, if you acquired MEP dollars or cash settlement dollars, because you arrange the purchase and sale of securities with Denomination D or C, which would be the MEP dollar or controlled with settlement, if you bought the controlled with settlement dollar or MEP dollar, you can't buy the official dollar, and this regulation doesn't fully cover the crypto dollar. So the market has to make it more expensive because otherwise it's very easy to arbitrage.

[01:12:25]So, well, watch out for that. Watch out for that.

[01:12:31]Watch out for that.

[01:12:35]Santi, is there any free or paid arbitrage bot that has worked well for you? At one point there was a semi-automatic triangular crypto one from Imberar. Uh, I really like Ariel from Imberar, I think he's a genius in every sense. Uh, he does n't provide his arbitrage bot. I think he does n't have it anymore, I think. I don't remember, I think it was called Cryptofolio, right? Uh, but the thing is, I do n't like automated arbitrage, it doesn't quite convince me, I haven't tried it, I can't give an opinion, but I doubt Ariel would do anything malicious, but I'll leave it at that. The guy is a genius, a real pro, and a very good person. I had the opportunity to meet him twice in person. He's a genius, truly. But the thing about triangular arbitrage is that they take advantage of small purchase margins, but the market can easily wipe you out. It can easily wipe you out. Honestly, I didn't try it. Honestly, I didn't try it.

[01:13:40]So, well. Well, because of this regulation, companies can't send money abroad using the official dollar. Why? Because of all the paperwork. It's very tedious. They have to have a product number and so on.

[01:13:53]So they go through the CCL (Contado con Liquidación, or cash settlement) market. By going through the CCL, you basically can't buy the official dollar. They force you to buy the dollar later through the cash settlement market. The official dollar is no longer an option. So, what does this cause?

[01:14:08]It increases the demand for the dollar.

[01:14:12]It's mandatory.

[01:14:13]So, if you bought the CCL once to send money abroad, you're forced to buy the cash settlement market. You can no longer buy the official dollar.

[01:14:20]So, the demand increases.

[01:14:24]Even individuals who access the CCL (Contado con Liquidación, or cash settlement) cannot access the official rate for 90 days. So, during those 90 days, they buy CCL dollars, thus extending the 90- day period, and so on.

[01:14:37]Companies that are obligated to use it, especially those that import, have to access the CCL.

[01:14:43]If they want to accumulate capital, they have to access the CCL. They have to transfer funds to their own accounts. For example, if companies have a bank account in Switzerland, they have to transfer the funds to the CCL dollar. All of this creates buying pressure on the CCL dollar.

[01:14:58]So, what happens? Demand increases for what? Demand for the CCL increases, and on top of that, this increased demand coincides with a drop in supply.

[01:15:09]Why a drop in supply? Because supply is limited. This leads to an increase in the CCL dollar. If the CCL dollar increases, what happens? The dollar, the crypto dollar, increases. So, this is the explanation. Obviously, I explain it in a bit more detail in the video, but this is the gist of it. Explanation of why the UST is so expensive. This is the big explanation I came up with. It doesn't seem logical to me. It's what I see and what I believe, let's say.

[01:15:39]Uh, how does the WhatsApp group work? Lucho, it's free, it's in the video description, and you can join whenever you want. There's one for trading and one for arbitrage. It's called the Arbitrage Bot group, even though there isn't an actual arbitrage bot, but that's what it's called. And there's a lot of valuable information, you know? There's a lot of, a lot of valuable information.

[01:16:03]Uh, everyone, sorry, but I have to go now. It's 11:30, we started the live stream later than we expected. Uh, really, thanks for joining. Today we surpassed the 100 mark; we were 107 at one point. So, I'm really happy, really happy that the live streams are working, that we have 100 people live talking, exchanging ideas, analysis, and well, really, thanks for always joining us. Channel. I promise, I promise, I won't say anything, I won't say anything, but things are coming, things are coming to the channel, okay?

[01:16:43]So, well, I'm not going to say anything else.

[01:16:46]I love you all a lot. I hope you have an excellent weekend, a good Friday, a good Saturday. Take care, enjoy life, be with your loved ones, and that's all. I'm Santiago Amat, and I'll see you next time.