Bitcoin Bears Need $70K Now, or $90K Comes Next

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is going up pretty aggressively and I think that now there is a real question to be asked. Is this a bare market rally, a typical deadcat bounce or is the bare market simply over? So let's dive in a quick market watch to see where we are right now and what potentially to expect. Before we do that, do let me know like what do you think and why do you think that? I'm very curious always to the reasoning as well. It's most important, right? So what we are seeing right now is Bitcoin at $82,300.

[00:00:30]Now I want to talk a little bit about the resistance, the next place where we can find that the next support and what happens if we break out, how high we can potentially go from this point and why I think that this is not a regular bare market. And I gave you my reasoning in the last couple of videos. So do definitely watch those. I'm not going to list them all, but I do want to mention it for the people that are new here.

[00:00:54]Welcome. Like the video if you like the video. Let me know something down below.

[00:00:57]It doesn't matter. Just let me know anything. It's fine. And let's take a look at it. So, $82,300.

[00:01:02]Now, of course, there are people in the bearish camp, right? They say, "Well, that's a typical bare market rally, and that's something that you should ignore." And it's good to be cautious, of course, and I would definitely not recommend buying at the, you know, greenest candle that we had in the last 3 months. Basically, that would not really be uh responsible. Then again, at the moment, the bottom indicators are not flashing anymore. They were flashing here, and we mentioned it right here.

[00:01:27]And it's funny if I I looked at that date, I went back to my YouTube channel, like what video did I post right there?

[00:01:33]And that says something about the the social involvement, right? Like people are so bearish. They were so negative at the lowest of the lowest wick. Whether it is still an ongoing bare market or whether it's already done, you cannot say that ignoring the bottom indicators was a good idea because even from that point, Bitcoin is now up 36% in a pretty short amount of time and it was the most obvious place to buy actually, right?

[00:02:02]And I'm not saying that in hindsight. We talked about it back then as well. So even if you are bearish, you can get nice pumps out of the market. And now to be honest, it's a tough market to be in.

[00:02:12]A lot of people now have seen three tops at the end of the post having year and we're kind of expecting like okay well then 2025 was that as well and we are now going into a typical bare market and now that it turned out that it is not really a typical bare market. It's a tough one because I think the FOMO run is going to be pretty epic. We just had news that Michael Sailor is probably going to sell some Bitcoin and usually you would say like oh [ __ ] people are panicking price going down. What's happening? Bitcoin is going up at a bottom process. Bad news doesn't matter.

[00:02:42]Good news also doesn't matter. And that's simply what we had right here.

[00:02:46]This was massively oversold. How oversold? If you look at the RSI on the bi-weekly, just as oversold as the 2022 bottom as the 2015 bottom. That's how oversold. This point was right there.

[00:02:59]And at the moment, we are seeing a minor it's like not even mentionable, but like a minor minor minor red candle on the Bitcoin dominance. Right. So, you'll notice that today the altcoin market is going up a little bit harder than Bitcoin. And that's nice for the people who are in quality altcoins, right? And who took it at the lows. Hopefully, take some profits out, right? Like you'll never know how high this is going to get. But you don't want these small rallies also to be for nothing. So, I would say like if you have some profits, don't be afraid to take some. So, what is the big resistance? Where can we potentially see a correction or a reversal? Okay. So look at the USDT dominance for example and this whole point here at around 8 and a half%. Yeah that has been a major resistance area for the USDT dominance which is of course good for crypto assets and it's now going down uh and it's going down pretty hard. It's getting pretty fat rejection at the moment. What caught my eye is that if you look at the Fibonacci we are now approaching the 0.618. That's usually a level where you would expect a bounce, right? So around this level could be a little lower or higher but pretty much around this level I would say Bitcoin could have a correction here. This is where this rally potentially is going to end for now.

[00:04:16]However, if we because it is a weak chart at the moment. If we break this then we can go to the 786 which is down about another 8.5%.

[00:04:28]Now what is interesting is if you look 8.5%. That's about from this last peak right here until where we are right now as well. So then you can say like well from that peak what did Bitcoin do? How did Bitcoin actually respond when we had this going down? That would line up with this wick right here for Bitcoin. And if you look 8.5% on Bitcoin was give or take 9 and a half 10% for Bitcoin up.

[00:04:57]Right? So, if you add another 9 and a half% give or take for Bitcoin, it's sitting at $90,000, which makes sense because if you use the same Fibonacci on Bitcoin, you see that that level lines up with the 786 on Bitcoin as well. The level where we are right now between where we are now and maybe $835,000, I would expect a, you know, resistance point and a correction. If we break that though, then I think 90K is the next big point where we can expect some resistance. And while I was editing this video, I had to put this in. So this is on the Alpha Factory. There's a link down below. But check this out though.

[00:05:38]If you look at the current Bitcoin draw down, right? So we started at day zero, which is the all-time high for Bitcoin and how many% we went down in how many days. Right now, we are currently at day 212 with a draw down of 36.1%.

[00:05:51]If you look at the 2011 bare market, looks nothing like it, right? Nothing.

[00:05:57]If you look at the 2013 bare market, looks nothing like it. We have been above that for the entire time. If you look at the 2017 bare market, we have massively outperformed that as well.

[00:06:09]Yeah, it's nothing like that. If you overlay it with the 2021 bare market, it at least had some crosses, but overall, we have been outperforming that entire bare market so much. Now overlay it with the 2019 area, right? I can even call that a bare market really. Look at that. Now you tell me which one looks by far most similar. And that's one of the reasons why I'm saying like, hey, this looks a lot more like 2019 because yeah, it literally looks a lot more like 2019.

[00:06:42]This is where we are right now. The big like neon glowing line. every usual bare market was very like bad right it was very bad was very much below it and the only thing that comes even close to how we are moving right now is 2019 now I'm not implying that we will get this massive downward trend right here because that was co and actually the bottom for 2019 excluding the blacks one should already be behind us in that case but still it is super interesting to see that at this point in other bare markets we were down 58% 66% 52% and currently we are down 36%.

[00:07:23]Right? In 2019 at this moment it was 40%. So not even we are doing better than 2019 which wasn't really even a bare market. We are doing like it it's not even comparable to normal bare markets, right? And therefore I'm preaching so much about hey guys watch out this is not a regular bare market and here we are. Right? It isn't. So again, try it for yourself. There's a link down below on the Alpha Factory.

[00:07:47]It's one of the many tools that we have here. Again, I've been preaching this for a year and everything is starting to come together right now, which is beautiful to see that be cautious when it comes to believing in the 4-year cycle, right? Because if you are going to wait for simply October, then you might get left behind really hard. And for most people, I think the invalidation point is if we make a new higher high, which is close to 100K. And you might be like, "Oh, well then I didn't time the bottom." Now, you didn't time the bottom. You should not try to do that anyway. But you also miss out on a 65% rally. That's not like even trying to time the bottom. That's the complete opposite, right? So, you miss half bull market basically if you are really using this as your confirmation point that there is no fouryear cycle. It has been proven for me already. This is gone and I hope most people see it by now. And now the question is now what? Yeah, that's hard because we do not really know that. So if this turns out to be a 5year cycle, a sixear cycle, we don't know yet. We are not that far. But the macro is showing us that hey 5ear cycle we are already there. Four year cycle we cannot get there anymore. We have to go back in time. But will it take 5 years?

[00:09:02]Will it take 6 years? Who knows? Let's play it the way we see it right now. But oil is taking a nice hit today.

[00:09:10]Definitely has something to do with it.

[00:09:11]It's down 13% on the day, right? Oil, that that's nuts, actually. That's pretty nuts. If you see where it came from, though, it makes sense, right? If you look at this big resistance that we have for oil right here that it basically is struggling with since 2008 already. Not super unexpected. uh but the the you know for everything there is a narrative but then again if you look at the S&P it's making fat new highs like there's no bare market inside anywhere right like sure we can say like well it's peaking so we could expect it yeah but like new highs that process can take a long time before we finally see a bare market the DXY is breaking down from the parallel channel that it's been in the Fed balance sheet obviously is going up Fed is printing money instead of taking money from the market, right?

[00:10:00]That was mostly the reason why we went into the 2022 bare market. At this time, it's the complete opposite. The bottom indicators already flashed. Yeah, the signs are pretty clear for me that the low is in. Doesn't mean we go straight up from here. We can definitely go back to 70K or whatever. I don't know. But the bare market low, it's again more than just waiting for a certain date.

[00:10:24]And I think that a lot of people, they think like, oh, I figured it out. It's the four-year cycle. Look, it's a fouryear having cycle. The h the having is four year every give or take four years, right? But that's literally what it is. It's not a four-year top cycle.

[00:10:38]It's not a fourear bottom cycle. It's a liquiditydriven asset which is then obviously following liquidity. If you look at the total market, beautiful like this is picture perfect if you ask me.

[00:10:52]the way how it went up midline up again midline up broke the midline tested it all the way back to the lower line that's your buying opportunity and now go up and whatever it's going to do test the lower line again fine or not but you know I think the first big resistance is waiting for this midline and that's a multimonth process but that's the first big point of resistance and yeah depending on when that happens that could mean a new all-time high for the crypto market but still that that's something That's way too hard. I'm not even going to try to predict that.

[00:11:25]Altcoin market as well. Total 3 ES. So everything excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins in the top 125. So actually really only altcoins perfectly also from this channel that it's been in. And if you look at the RSI, we spoke about it on the two weekly, the cross was incoming and the cross has happened.

[00:11:44]That's amazing. Look, this cross has happened right now. And you could say like, oh, what does a cross matter? I maybe you remember like we spoke about it with Bitcoin like hey cross incoming right and it came and you see how bitcoin is now responding to this cross look RSI is a momentum indicator if momentum breaks above average then it means that the momentum is turning very bullish which is just good for the price right like that's the simplest way actually to explain it and now we finally have seen it for the altcoin market as well and the average returns are nuts if this happens on such a big time frame actually. So, this is an insane bullish sign. It could throw a curveball. We had a couple curve balls in the past, definitely. But well, then again, for Bitcoin, it didn't do it. So, who knows? And if it doesn't throw a curveball, it could mean that this chart is going a lot higher than where it is right now. This is low caps versus high caps. And this one also crossed a while back. And it's now starting to really respond to that cross. So we went sideways for months like for almost half a year year and now it's getting a pretty decent pump. So it's showing us like hey low caps are now starting to outperform high caps a little bit more.

[00:12:57]Is this to be called an all season? No.

[00:12:59]But it is good to see that exactly at this huge support area we have the strongest bounce we have seen in more than a year right now. So everything is starting to come together pretty nicely if you take it from the ultimate top, right? The last top that we had in October until where we are right now for Bitcoin, how the price went down and we find the most similar patterns in full history of the market. You can see that pattern number one right here is the bare market low. Pattern number two. Oh, similar bare market low of 2019, 181 19. Let's do pattern number three.

[00:13:42]Bare market low in 2020. They all happen to be major bare market lows. Last video I made was where I talked about all the bottom indicators that I mentioned in the last 20 videos and I had them analyzed by multiple unbiased AI models and basically with a prompt like hey look at this what do you think right that's it no like be bullish be bearish nothing it turned out that AI is basically saying like okay we have 35 bottom indicators pretty much everything is saying bottom right and to put it into a total score 100 full on top zero full on bottom sitting at 20. Yeah, I don't have to explain that 20 is pretty low. Obviously, the 2022 bottom had a score of 18. So, if you then compare it to 20, I'm like, yeah, okay, like that that kind of everything that we were already looking at. Add 35 bottom indicators on top and had it have it analyzed by just complete unbiased calculative models. There we go. Right?

[00:14:45]like this is eventually uh the cherry on top. It is amazing all it calculated.

[00:14:52]You can find this on the alpha factory down below by the way. This is nuts. You can read it all the way that it reasoned about all these charts. You can click one of these charts. You can find the reasoning what every model was saying about it. It it's I know that a lot of people are still super bearish or at least they try to be bearish. And I just want to tell you like do whatever you want to do of course but be careful with it because in my opinion there is no reason to think that this is a regular bare market.

[00:15:21]There is more than the calendar and everything is now kind of disproving it and it's not that I'm getting excited because of a dead cat bounce or whatever. I'm actually saying like it is not different. The bottom indicators that marked all previous bottoms before whenever they flash this time I think that they still mark the bottom. the Bitcoin tops every cycle, the bottom every cycle that always align perfectly with the ISM, with the macro, with the business cycle. It did it once again.

[00:15:49]I'm saying that this time is actually not different. But I'm not comparing it to dates on the calendar. I'm comparing it to the charts and the macro and the liquidity and the indicators that have been more accurate than these calendar dates. And I think for me that's just way better to do actually. And there are so many more things like we can keep it very simple like in this bare market we have a major top then we have the next lower high and if you take a line from there you can say like hey whenever we break the lower high trend right here there's a retest and then we go up and the bare market it is done. We completely did the same thing right now.

[00:16:27]Right? If you look at it like this this is like picture perfect. If you take it from the top, next lower high, break out, retest up. Now, it is pretty nuts because in the alpha factory, we called like this exact level like, hey, if we break out that there there's a case to be made, right? This is this that's what a lot of people were saying. We were like, okay, but what if it is not, right? Because if you take it actually the Fibonacci from the top to the bottom, you see that here we got a perfect rejection at the 3A2 and we went down further. But weeks ago already we broke through the 3A2. As you can see right here, we broke through it and actually what happened was playbook Fibonacci. We broke through the 382. We got rejected at the five. We retested the 382. We broke it and now we are on the way to the 618. And therefore we said on the al factory like hey if we break this level then around 83 is the next resistance what we kind of there right now. What if we get a rejection right here like won't stay green forever. The last 3 months for crypto for Bitcoin at least has been great.

[00:17:33]However we will have periods where we will go down again and how low can we go? I think that if we do get a rejection around this level, that the next level that we should look out for is $78 $77,000, that's the big level. Well, the first level of big support. If we break that, which good, then the big level is $74,000.

[00:17:57]These are the first two levels that I would keep in mind. And these are two levels that if you are indeed mid long-term bullish that I would say like well these are good DCA opportunities.

[00:18:11]I'm not buying it personally right now.

[00:18:13]This level maybe a little bit. This level definitely a little bit more. So yeah, say whatever you want. The most simple indicators like even the logarithmic regression band, it played out perfectly again. You buy at the green line and that's it, right? That it always worked. uh a win rate of literally 100%. Last thing, the risk wave also told you guys, man, like this this thing this this indicator on blockchain decoded is the best. Like this turns green, you buy and that's it.

[00:18:42]Like [ __ ] amazing. Again, it's not in the green right now. It's sitting at uh 29% which is an amazing like still long-term buying opportunity though. No, don't get me wrong, but the exact low not really. We are now here. Most time we actually spend around 45%, 45% is at the moment $112,000 with the current way how it's moving. So that's the level that is actually right in the middle basically between bullish and bearish, right? And now it sounds very bullish, of course, because it's close to the all-time high. But if you look at how Bitcoin is now moving, actually the 47 would be the most realistic ultimate low and the 325,000 would be the most realistic ultimate high. Everything in between, you know, we'll see how it goes. So I would say don't get emotional over it. Don't buy the pumps because you now feel like, oh, maybe I should buy. No. When the fear is high, when these indicators are flashing, that's when you want to get in. Whether you believe it's a bear or a bull or a crab or a [ __ ] doesn't matter. You still have a very nice pump that you can take profits on right now.

[00:19:56]So therefore, great job. Like the video if you like the video. Subscribe to the channel. And again, if you feel like, man, why don't you believe in this whole fouryear cycle thing, there's a video right there. Do check it out. It makes all the sense in the world if you ask me. And let me know what you think about all of this down below. I'll see you on the next one.