The video provides a lucid demonstration of how short-term variance fuels the illusion of unfairness, grounding abstract probability in empirical evidence. It effectively reminds us that human intuition is often a poor substitute for the Law of Large Numbers.
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This Casino Fairness Experiment Revealed Something InterestingAdded:
In this video, we're going to do a science experiment to answer the question, are casino original games rigged? I've said myself, I don't think that they are. Having worked in the casino industry for over a decade, I don't believe that the casino games are rigged, as in they're cheating. Now, of course, the probabilities in the house edge lay with the casino. So, you could argue they're rigged in that essence, but in terms of turning on magnets and making you lose, I don't believe it.
But, we're going to do a science experiment. It might be proven wrong.
friend of the channel, Brent from Allon Black. He suggests that like live table games are not rigged, but original games are rigged. And he has built a simulator himself on his on his website, which we're going to test out. So, what we're going to do is we're going to play it on the casino I play at with real money, and then we're going to take it over to the simulator and we're going to compare the statistics. Okay, before I do that, well, actually, let me tell you the the strategy that we're going to do first because then we can absolutely 100% see what the probabilities could have been.
And I will tell you why I think people think that they're rigged. Does that make sense? The strategy that we're going to do, super easy. You can see here two conditions, is the double up dozens. If I just open it up, can I zoom into here for you? So, very, very easy.
Every one loss, we're going to increase our bet amounts by 100%. Every streak of two wins, we're going to reset the play amount. It's that easy. Okay. Now, when we're picking a bet amount, come to my website and I've got the the bankroll calculator. Okay. Shout out to the magic raven. Help me set up all these tools on the website, but this one is really handy. So, you're going to come and find the bankroll calculator. You're going to plug in how much money you've got. So, we've got $1,000 and we are increasing our loss on with twice. So, so, so increasing by 100% is the same as multiplying it by two. And you can see here the optimum bet amount. So, I've gone for 24 cent, but look at this. If I change this to 25 cent, we only have 11 progressions. So, if I drop it by 1 cent, I've got another progression.
That's what I'm going to do. 12 progressions seems pretty good. So, let's go over to dice.
We have to set our win chance to 66%.
That's basically win two, lose one.
Okay, we're going to do 100 bets on this one and then we're going to go to all on black. We're going to go to Brent's um simulator. We'll probably do it, let's say, five times. We might go bust before then. We might not. So, 100 bets, 66%, we're going to 24 cent. Let's start the auto bet. And we'll turn on turbo mode.
I'm just going to mute it because it's pinging at me and I'm not really a fan of it pinging at me. So, it's very simple to see if the probabilities play out here because with a 66% probability of winning after 100 spins, we are expecting to win 66 and lose 34. Okay, so we are basically there you go. 65 wins, 35 losses. We were one short.
Okay, so let's just write it down. We got 65 to 35. Basically what you'd expect.
Let's go to Brent's calculator. Just need to if I can zoom in there. So I've already set it up. Um we're going for a 66% chance. If I just edit this strategy, hopefully you can see that it's the same thing. So it's really good to to play it within here. Test it out for yourself. We'll also do better 24 cent and I think it's already set up. and we'll start our auto play and then we'll zoom into the stats in a minute and see if it's got the Oh, so I've done I should have done a 100.
Let's reset this. Sorry. And we'll do 100 games because we want it fair. And we'll start the auto play.
Well, that got off to a great start. You can't Can I see it down here? Um where can I zoom in? Let me just have a look.
Maybe there's something better to maybe this one. There you can see the stats.
That's all we really care about is just the stats.
Okay, so that was 100 and we won 61 and we lost 39. So the casino that I'm playing at actually had a better score.
There we go. 61 wins, 39 losses. So that's 1 nil to the casino that I play at.
We'll add them all up at the end. Right, let's do it again. So, let's go back to our By the way, we we won almost $10.
So, let's reset this stats. Go to our bet amount. 24 cent.
We don't have to change much. We just go again. So, again, the same thing we're looking for is um 66 wins, 34 losses.
That's what we would expect. And hopefully we can win a bit of money whilst we do. A stopped.
Let me just see if I can stop this at the right time.
I'm going to stop it when it gets to 66 wins.
I've done it a bit bit too far there, haven't I? How many spins is that? 90.
Is that 104? So, I went over spins. But again, guys, basically what you'd expect. Let me just zoom in for you. I don't think I did it last time.
67 to 37.
Okay, we we would expect 66 to 34. So basically what we'd expect I need to keep I need to remember to put those 100 bets. But there you go. Probabilities played out. Let's reset that. Let's go back to um Brent's. I think I just zoom in here.
This might be a better view for you. 100 game set up this time. Start the auto play. All we really care about is this number down here in the over here in the bottom right. Wins and losses. See that?
That probability there is actually on the downside.
It's not counting my games. Is it counting my games? We'll see if it stops.
It did stop. So again, look at these stats. Brent, your school is worse than uh I say worse, it's not worse, but the actual payouts here are not as good, are they? So, 58 wins, 42 losses.
Okay, so 2-0 to the casino eye player in terms of how many wins we're getting out of 100. Let's reset that. We'll go back over to dice.
I need to put 100 bets. [snorts] We're doing 24 cent and we'll go again. By the way, I absolutely love the double up dozens.
And the great thing about dice is you can play it fast. So, I will tell you after this round why I think people think that this is rigged.
So, let's finish off.
6337. So, a little bit on the lower side, but hardly anything really. 6337.
Let's go to Brent's tool.
We'll reset that 100 games again. We need to go to 24 cent.
And start our auto play.
Can I zoom in here? You can see the stats going down there.
So, we should be winning two for everyone that we lose. We're about on track there. I saw at 15 losses, which and we're at 30 wins.
Okay, a little bit on the lucky side there. 70 to 30. So that round Brent's machine won 2-1.
Okay, let's go back to this reset our graph. By the way, every time I do this, I'm winning $11, which is quite nice.
So, we're going to reset that graph. 24 cent 100 more bets and we will start the auto bet. So the reason why I think people think that this is rigged is because of the speed of it. If you do, if you play roulette for a 100 rolls, if you're at a fast table, that is basically Oh, you got into a bit of trouble then. That is basically, but the probability still played out.
100 spins is about an hour. Okay, let's just write this down. 67 to 37. That is basically bang on the numbers that we'd expect. If I just zoom in here, how much trouble did we get into?
with minus 54. I think we had maybe two or three uh more progressions, but we obviously went on a big streak there.
Anyway, we came out of it and we won $8.
Just going to reset that. Come over to Brent again. Uh dice, go on here, reset the stats, go back to 24 cent bet, and start the autoplay.
I mean, I can zoom in here. I don't think you guys really care what's going on here. The main thing we want to see are these numbers here.
So, we're on the lucky side there for sure. You can see it already.
6931.
So, the casino I play was 6733. This was 6931.
So, that that makes it 22. We'll get the decider and then we'll add all the scores up in a minute. Um, let's go back to dice. Change this to 24 cent.
Reset this. I don't think I need I feel like I need to change something, but I don't. Start the auto bet. Just need to make sure that my Oh, I do need to Let's just reset this. Oh, I was on a good stats as well. I'm not going to reset it. I'm going to because this I want I must confess I kind of want this one to win just to emphasize my point. Uh so I'm a little bit biased but you can see it's a fair one. So what's that? We've got 17 spins which means that we need 83 more.
Let's go for that.
And that should add up to 100.
I mean, I look looks like we're on the lucky side here so far.
6931. That's exactly what uh Brent was last time. 6931 and we won $12. So, I'm stopping here.
We've done five playouts of this. We basically won $10 to $12 each time. You can see right at the top there, I've made $64. Okay. And let me just read through the uh the results. So remember, it should be 66-34.
First one 6535. Second one 6737.
Third one 6337.
Um fourth one 6733.
And then our final one, which is our luckiest one so far. 6931.
What's the difference? So, we should expect 66. Our worst was 63. Our biggest was 69.
Seems pretty fair to me so far. Let's go over to Brent's tool and reset these. 100 games, 24 cents.
Let's go again.
So, it need is 6931 to to see the to see if it it needs to get over 6931 to have a better score than the the one that I've just been playing at. Doesn't look like it's going to do it in a minute. It's on the unlucky side.
6535.
So, I know that was a small experiment, but we've done a thousand rolls. We did 500 with the casino I play at, 500 over here, and the casino I play at. I really want to say it, but I shouldn't just in case YouTube gives me a strike. Won that last one. So, it's 32. I'm not going to add up all these. Um, but you can do it yourself. So, that was all on black. 61 6139 5842.
So, that second attempt with the AOB was really unlucky. Fortunately, the betting system is fantastic. So, it still made money. Then it got a lucky one, 7030.
Then it was 6931. Then it was 6535. So, you could make the argument out of this that the actual casino one is far more consistent or it has been in this one.
This one's a bit more erratic, but basically within the margin of error and obviously provably fair. So that is why I believe that the original games are not rigged. And the reason why you will have an outrageous streak of bad luck is because you don't realize how many spins you've done. We've just done a thousand spins. Okay? 500 there, 500 here. A,000 spins is 10 hours at a roulette table. So just stop and think.
If you play 10 hours at a roulette table, you will probably see some funky results play out. You could see the same dozen hit 10 times in a row if you play for 10 hours. So, it can happen. What do you think of that science experiment? By the way, I'm only playing back and forth with Brent. I've got a lot of respect for the guy. I do like him. He's well entitled to his opinion. By the way, I do like your tool. So, go check out Brent's tool. Go check out my tool. If you do believe that casino originals are not rigged, then sign up to the casino I'm playing at using the code matchmaker. Let me know your thoughts and I'll see you in the next video.
Cheers guys.
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