BITCOIN BULL MARKET STARTING NOW!!!! (Or Is It?) Realistic Bitcoin Price Prediction & TA!

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]Hey guys, what's going on? Jeff here and in today's video, we are going to be talking about the rally that is taking place on Bitcoin right now. Is this the beginning of a new bull market? Is Bitcoin coming to the end of this bear market? We're going to talk about all of that and more in today's video, but don't worry, no hype was involved in the making of this video. You see, one of the big issues in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency space is that everybody seems to think that it's okay to make calls and trades that are emotional. Instead of doing that, instead of getting you annihilated because we're making a bunch of calls that are emotionally based instead of analysis-based, we're actually going to break down what it's going to take logically for Bitcoin to enter into a new bull market and answer the question, is it starting now or not? So, without much further ado, let's go ahead and dive right on into it. Bitcoin, as you can see, recently rallied up to about $76,000 and this is very important because Bitcoin actually managed to hit a new local high compared to the local high that we set back here on March the 17th. We also see that Bitcoin is bouncing here off of the 20-day exponential moving average and we see that Bitcoin on the linear chart has broken above this downtrending level of resistance and you probably see it all over X that people are saying the bull market's starting, the bear market's over. People there are saying sub-60K is the sub-60K Bitcoin is coming are stupid.

[00:01:24]I am here to give you a dose of reality.

[00:01:26]There is a lot of There are a lot of things that are happening right now that are bullish and we're very excited about those things. I'm going to lay them all out for you, bear, but we're also going to make sure that we don't get ahead of ourselves. We have correctly called the beginning of the last two bull markets in 2019 and in 2023 and I am confident that we're going to be able to do the same thing here, but we have to make sure that we follow our system. So, let's do it. Let's break down the bullish case. What are people saying that's so bullish? Well, first of all, Bitcoin did genuinely break above this downtrending level of resistance on the daily chart and that is genuinely bullish. That is a good thing. That does show that the market is showing signs of strength and this is taking place during the same time that we're seeing the S&P 500 rally to new all-time highs considering a deal with Iran seems to be around the corner. This is also taking place at the same time that Brent crude oil is sitting down here around $90 a barrel, not back to where we started, but definitely lower than it was.

[00:02:19]This is also when some of our favorite other crypto favorite other investments are at all-time highs. Chippy's up here at all-time high. Blocks, a fund that we're a big fan of, is sitting here at 1570. And so, the market is doing very well over the last week, but again, we've got to drown out the noise and get down to the actual signal. What's the signal? Is the signal that Bitcoin breaking this downtrend and being in a rally and breaking above the 20 DEM A, is that enough? Is that our signal that the bull market is starting? I don't think so because here's the other side of the equation, right? You do also have I should also mention you do have the bullish case that out on the weekly chart we have bullish MACD cross, which is phenomenal. You have RSI, which is phenomenal sitting up here at 40.2 on the weekly chart. These are all fantastic things, right? But what's the real case? What is it that we need to see happen to see Bitcoin go into a bull market? I am going to make them I'm going to postulate and then I'm going to explain and expand.

[00:03:11]Here's the definition of uh here here's what we need to see for Bitcoin to go into a bull market. Bitcoin needs to break through this box and that box tops out around 88 to $90,000. In a very real sense, when this puppy hits 88, you're going to see some serious No, I'm just kidding. I'm not going all the way, but seriously, when Bitcoin hits 88, that's about the time that you know, give or take a couple thousand dollars, that's about the time that you know that Bitcoin's in a bull market.

[00:03:37]That hasn't happened yet in case you didn't notice. We're sitting here below 76,000. Bitcoin needs to do a lot of things before it goes into a bull market. Bear markets are very strong. We have a very powerful downtrend. This is not something that's just like minor. This is a very strong downtrend Bitcoin finds itself in.

[00:03:52]We need to break one above this local high. We've not even set a local high.

[00:03:55]We topped out double topped here at 76K just a few minutes before recording this video. Two, we don't just need to break through this downtrend on the linear chart, we also need to break through it on the log chart and it currently sits at 77. Hasn't happened yet. We need to break bullish out of the bear flag. Wait a second. What? We're going to break bullish out of a bear flag? Is that even possible? Of course it is, but it's difficult. The top of the bear flag right now is at 80,000, which means that even in the next week, if we rally to 80,000, we're still in a bear flag, which predicts a bear market correction to happen over the course of the rest of April on into May.

[00:04:25]On top of that, we've also got to break through this zone of resistance, which is created by the bottom of the candle wick right here on uh November the 21st when we dropped down to 80,000 and then this flat level right here at 85,000.

[00:04:38]Bitcoin needs to break through that zone. On top of that, there's this longer-term uptrend right here where we connect our all-time high at $73,800 back in March of 2024, our bear market Sorry, our bull market lows here around 75 in March of 2025 and then our um our further $85,000 lows here in December of 2025. That uptrend kind of brings us through right here. Then also, on top of that, on the weekly chart, we need to see Bitcoin actually be able to break these levels because we need to invalidate the Elliott Wave 1 2 3 4 5 count. If Bitcoin cannot break the Elliott Wave 1 2 3 4 5 count, then that is where we're going to have a very difficult time saying the bear market's over if you have this five-wave correction looming right over our heads.

[00:05:18]And so, although the short-term noise, and I'm not trying to be offensive to the bulls, but the short-term noise of Bitcoin rallying up to 76K is exciting, it is not yet signal. Bitcoin needs to break through those higher levels that we've talked about before we can get the signal that Bitcoin is going into a bull market. Am I a permabear? No. Bitcoin has been, always has been, and probably always will be the largest component of our growth portfolio. I love Bitcoin. I think that Bitcoin is a phenomenal long-term investment, which is why we own so much of it and why I've been acquiring it since dinosaurs roam the earth. I've been buying Bitcoin since it was $3,000.

[00:05:56]Yeah, I believe in Bitcoin long-term.

[00:05:58]Duh. I'm Crypto freaking Jab, for goodness sakes.

[00:06:02]That said, I'm also a realist and I'm not going to tell you that the bear market's over until I have concrete evidence that the bear market's over because I'm not here to clickbait you into getting liquidated out of a long trade. That's not my job. My job here is to help you succeed and the way that I help you succeed is twofold and this is the application that I want you to walk away from this video with. Number one, I'm going to explain to you, as I just did, how we know when the bull market is starting. We will know that the bull market is starting when we break through these levels of resistance. We will know that the bull market is starting when we break through the 20-week exponential moving average, which by the way, has not been broken yet and it's not the only it's not the only movement that we need to see happen, right? The 20-week EMA, I should have mentioned this a minute ago, is currently sitting at 78,000. We need to break above that level as well. And as we've seen in past, just breaking above that one level is not necessarily enough to begin the bull market because sometimes you can have a fake out. So, we need other confirmations as well, right? My first job here is to help you understand when the bull market is beginning.

[00:06:57]First thing. Second thing is to help you not get wrecked in the bear market and bull market.

[00:07:02]And so, the way that we prepare for the bull market is that we buy during the bear market. Wow. Man, when you think about it like this, like my job is really simple. I help you understand when the bull market starts, I help you be encouraged to buy during the bear market. Pretty simple.

[00:07:16]You see, dollar cost averaging is great in a bull market, but your average cost basis is going up. The actual best time to dollar cost average is in a bear market because your average cost basis is going down, which means you're making more money on the back end when the investment appreciates later on down the road. My encouragement to you ever since we broke below 75K is that $60,000 probably won't hold, but don't wait to invest because as Solomon said in Ecclesiastes chapter 11, he who watches the wind will not plant. A farmer who thinks, "The wind's going to come and blow away my seeds, I'll never plant."

[00:07:43]Guess what he does. If he does that for long enough, he starves to death because he never put any seeds in the ground. I don't want that to be you. If you want to build wealth in Bitcoin, you got to stop obsessing about, "Well, am I going to 40K? Well, that this one guy in the YouTube chat said it's going to 30K in November. Obviously, I shouldn't buy anything until it hits 30K in November."

[00:07:59]Well, have fun having empty pockets at the all-time high.

[00:08:02]We bought a lot of Bitcoin in the 60K range publicly and I've made this very clear.

[00:08:06]We also bought in the 80K range and I made this very clear. We've been buying on the way down. We bought as much Bitcoin as we wanted at 60K. If it goes below 60K, we'll buy more.

[00:08:14]The point is we're not going to wait for the bull market confirmation to start buying.

[00:08:18]We're going to buy as Bitcoin approaches long-term moving averages, which is the difference between our channel and other channels who are saying only buy when the bull market starts. Not necessarily.

[00:08:24]We're going to buy on the way down, but the starting of the bull market is where we can start to look out and say, "Okay, our Bitcoin's probably going to start appreciating in value. We really need to get on top of it and get all the Bitcoin that we wanted to buy in the bear market because the bear market is now coming to a conclusion." So, my encouragement to you, number one, don't call it a bull market until it's a bull market. It's not a bull market yet. This is still a bear market rally.

[00:08:43]I'm sorry if that makes me unpopular.

[00:08:44]I'm sorry if you don't like it. I'm going to tell you the truth even if you don't like it. That's one of my personal commitments, not only to you, but also to my kids and everybody that I'm around. I'm going to tell you the truth even if it offends you. I'm going to try and not offend you, but I'm going to tell you the truth even if it offends you.

[00:08:56]This is still a bear market rally until it's not.

[00:08:58]Until Bitcoin breaks through 80 to 85,000, even up towards like 88,000, this is still a bear market rally and we should treat it as that and be looking for short opportunities.

[00:09:07]I understand that might make you think that I'm a permabear. I'm not, but I I've got to tell you the truth. Second thing, 74K, if you're not on leverage, is a perfectly fine time to long Bitcoin if you're talking about holding it for 2, 3, 5, 10 years because in 10 years, Bitcoin's most likely going to be trading at 750 to a million.

[00:09:24]The QQQ, for example, let's break this down. The QQQ, for example, one of my favorite indexes in the in the in the stock market.

[00:09:31]The QQQ over the last 10 years has returned a eye-watering 500%.

[00:09:38]It's 5X, almost 6X.

[00:09:41]It's beau- That's incredible. It's a great return. In 10 years, 6Xing your money. 10,000 becomes 60,000 in 10 years. That's incredible.

[00:09:48]In those same 10 years, Bitcoin, even to the bear market right now, is up 31,000 percent. Massively out performed QQQ.

[00:10:00]And it will do so in the next 10 years as well. I I have QQQ for the psycho diversification.

[00:10:05]But my largest holding has always and always will be Bitcoin because it's the it's the it's the it's the it really is the hurdle rate.

[00:10:11]It genuinely is the hurdle rate.

[00:10:13]So, I encourage you don't just look at what I keep saying which is that hey, sub 60k could happen.

[00:10:19]It can and you should be ready for it.

[00:10:21]One, don't get liquidated. Two, be ready to buy.

[00:10:23]But if it doesn't happen, I'm okay.

[00:10:25]Personally, I'm fine if it doesn't go below 60k cuz I bought down here. I'm excited about my acquisitions. If it does go below 60k, I'm ready with cash and I'm ready to not get liquidated.

[00:10:33]But the thing that I'm really focused on and what I want you to focus on is that in 10 years, where's Bitcoin going to be?

[00:10:39]Bitcoin in 10 years probably be way up here in the multi hundred thousands and getting close to million dollar status.

[00:10:44]In the next 10 years, Bitcoin will probably be trading at a million dollars a coin. By 2045, Bitcoin will probably be trading between 5 and 10 million dollars a coin. Jeb, you did not just say that. Unsubscribe. Dislike. Cancel.

[00:10:54]Jeb, Bitcoin's going to 3 million dollars. You're crazy.

[00:11:00]I also said that Bitcoin was going to 100k when it was 3k.

[00:11:03]And I got the same reaction back then that I get right now when I say Bitcoin's going to 5 million dollars a coin.

[00:11:09]You can hate me but you're going to miss the boat.

[00:11:12]You've been warned.

[00:11:14]Take advantage of these bear market opportunities.

[00:11:17]Drown out the noise. This bear market rally is exciting. It's fun.

[00:11:22]But the thing that you need to focus on is making money and investing money.

[00:11:27]That's it. It's all you got to do and you'll build wealth.

[00:11:31]If you enjoyed today's video and you want to do what we just said, you want to build wealth, one of the best ways that you can do that is by not paying taxes.

[00:11:37]I am an advocate for not paying taxes.

[00:11:39]But you got to do it legally. I know.

[00:11:42]We have to pay our taxes unfortunately.

[00:11:43]But there are a lot of legal ways to not pay taxes.

[00:11:46]And one of them is through a retirement account. If you haven't already, I highly encourage you to sign up for the sponsor of today's video which is none other than iTrustCapital. Why? Because they could save you from a $7,500 tax bill. Seriously. All you got to do is invest in Bitcoin through a Roth IRA which you can do spot, not even an ETF.

[00:12:03]You can invest in spot Bitcoin, actual real custodied Bitcoin.

[00:12:07]Not a derivative, none of that. Not paper Bitcoin, none of that. Actual Bitcoin, you can buy it in iTrustCapital inside of a retirement account which is incredible. Let's say you buy $10,000 of Bitcoin. It adds $50,000 of value to become worth $60,000. And because you bought in a Roth IRA, you owe zero dollars in capital gains taxes or any kind of taxes because you bought it in a in a taxable account. In a not in a in a tax-free account. In a in a in a Roth IRA. If you bought it on exchange, you would owe $7,500 in cap gains because of 15% on the 60,000.

[00:12:35]That sucks. Nobody likes that. Or sorry, 15% on the 50,000, excuse me. Nobody wants to pay taxes. So, I encourage you as a principle, adopt the principle to pay as little taxes as possible by any legal means necessary. Just as a principle. Just literally as a principle.

[00:12:50]Don't pay taxes if you can get out of paying taxes legally. Don't go to prison for it. Don't have the IRS show up at your house with guns.

[00:12:58]But any legal way to get out of taxes do it. And a Roth IRA from iTrustCapital is one of the best ways to do that. So, if you've not already signed up for iTrustCapital and started investing in Bitcoin through a Roth IRA or a traditional IRA or 457 or any of these other plans that are available, 401k rollovers, etc. SEP IRAs. There's a lot of other products here besides just the besides just the Roth IRA then you should do it. When you sign up and do your funding, you're going to get a $100 funding bonus. So, make sure you sign up with the link in the description box down below. Hey, I hope you guys enjoyed today's video. If you did, make sure to hit that like button, subscribe to the channel, and check out our new channel. We have a new channel that we have just launched and we're going to be trying to upload over here twice a week.

[00:13:36]This is @JebediahMcAfeeInvest and this is where I break down the income side of our portfolio. Our portfolio is split into two pillars, income and growth. And over here on this channel, we are making videos about our high income portfolio because we want to build $10,000 a month of passive income that our family can live on by August of 2030. That is our stated goal and we're going to work together over here on this channel to do just that. So, if you haven't already, make sure to follow me on YouTube @JebediahMcAfeeInvest. Go subscribe over here so you can figure out how we're making $10,000 a month of passive income without selling feet pics. No feet pics were sold in the making of this video.

[00:14:09]And how we also made $900 a month in passive income last month without bombing Iran. No bombs were dropped except knowledge bombs. So, make sure you invest in your education by subscribing to @JebediahMcAfeeInvest. I appreciate all of you guys for being here. Before I go, I do just first want to thank each and every single last one of you for watching as always. And I will see you guys in the next video.

[00:14:30]Peace.