Is STRC Running Out of Steam Before 2030?

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:09]Mr. Garlic asked about STR C. Once Bitcoin achieves widespread full adoption, will STR C lose its edge as an efficient way for strategy to raise low-cost capital for Bitcoin accumulation?

[00:00:20]They ask for the expected time horizon for this model. Let's look into a couple of things.

[00:00:26]And first of all, Phong Le, who is the CEO of MicroStrategy, uh he just said stretch will disrupt the $150 trillion fixed income market. Every boomer millionaire is only making 3% return. Now they can get 11%, 11.5% annually with Bitcoin. This is not priced in. And looking at how much and I know I know Saylor's going to buy again tomorrow. He'll announce his buy in the morning.

[00:00:51]The demand for this thing is off the hook. I mean, you can make you can create a 60/40 bond portfolio with less than 10% allocation to STR C and you can keep your 90% in disruption stocks and make an absolute fortune. So, if this continues, that's the question though as well.

[00:01:08]And I know all the non-believers in Michael Saylor and the haters are out there making videos like, "Oh, it's a Ponzi and everything else."

[00:01:17]Uh That always happens. This I've been in MicroStrategy since September 2020.

[00:01:24]I was the first one in it. My third ever video was about it.

[00:01:28]And with an option trade. Now, here we are and the FUD the FUD FUD storm is everyday, always continues. But why does the model work? It's because the math works. STR C raises capital approximately 11.5% cost. Yes, it's expensive and deploys into Bitcoin without dilution or maturity wall.

[00:01:49]And the break-even is simple. As long as Bitcoin returns greater than, say, 11 1/2% per year, it works.

[00:01:56]And in fact, because it's such a small concentration of their actual portfolio, do they Bitcoin only needs to return 2.2% for it to work. But over time, as you mentioned, Mr. Garlic, uh Knoblauch, that could change. And we're going to break down the actual time frames now to get a better feel. Short-term, 2 and 1/2% will will keep it afloat.

[00:02:18]Long-term, it could require that 11 1/2% CAGR to make it work. Now, the runway, how long we have, a lot of people believe Bitcoin will go to, uh you know, $1 million by 2030, 2035, you know, people like Cathie Wood, ARK, etc. And Bitcoin adoption is still less than 10% globally. Look at the amount of wholecoiners from my video on Friday. It will alarm you.

[00:02:44]And the market cap needs to 6 to 10x to reach the mature asset status. So, we need to go up to half a million, million-dollar Bitcoin for it to be a mature asset. So, in the meantime, has a lot of runway to go to go market cap of of MicroStrategy, then they need to see a Bitcoin CAGR of above. But by the way, Saylor himself can single-handedly keep the price of Bitcoin up. Just him.

[00:03:22]Forget the ETFs, forget Morgan Stanley coming in, forget Goldman Sachs coming in, all these guys.

[00:03:28]Just Fidelity.

[00:03:30]Just Saylor can keep the price up. He can prevent a bear market or take us out of the bear market. And so, watch this space carefully.

[00:03:40]And what I do believe though is this thing will run out of steam by 2030.

[00:03:46]We'll see. As Bitcoin matures, the returns will compress, probably down to 8% or less for STR C.

[00:03:53]But we need to see exactly what Bitcoin does. Now, if we do hit that supply crunch between now and 2030, everybody wins. We go to the moon. Okay?

[00:04:03]This is the fascinating thing about Bitcoin. If people are still buying it and there's none available for sale, we'll see the craziest the craziest price discovery ever in the history of the world. And that's why I am in it and that's why I'm excited. I know it's going to hit. I just don't know when.

[00:04:21]Enjoy the ride. And here my projections of the CAGRs again. CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR.

[00:04:29]It's all you hear about. STR C maybe get 10 to 12% CAGR 2026 to 2030. Might fall as low as 8%. We shall see. Direct Bitcoin should get you 20 to 40% CAGR uh depending on who you talk to. And MicroStrategy common stock should be a multiple of that, 30 to 60%. That's why I still own MicroStrategy. And weathered many storms. Little rotation, but that's my my game.

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