Macron Is Benefiting From Us. French Are Competing With Entrenched Locals Here - XN Iraki

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]We're taking off from where the continent left yesterday or at least certain members of the continent uh certain countries represented by their presidents in the Africa Forward summit.

[00:00:11]And we're going to be scrutinizing, we're going to be looking at some of the things that came out as a result of that uh because some of the language that was spoken uh leaned really heavily on economies, economies of nations. Uh we're talking about uh uh fiscal support. We were talking about then financing, global financing. Uh, President William R in his message that global financing then needed to take on now um a position where it was fair. Um, so there were a lot of things that came out. There are many deals that were inked. Um, possibly what we'll see as a result of that. Uh, we're going to go into all of that today. And to help us to do that this morning is the economist, Professor Xen Iraqi. Good morning, Prof. Hey, good morning. How are you?

[00:00:59]>> Very well, thank you. How are you?

[00:01:00]>> Be talking French.

[00:01:01]>> We should be >> with all the French that I know.

[00:01:05]>> I was about to go a little bit further, but now that you've given us that caveat, uh we will stick with that. No.

[00:01:11]Um you know, our voyage at some point at some point is to then be able to figure out what XN stands for.

[00:01:22]>> Many have tried.

[00:01:22]>> Many have tried and many have failed.

[00:01:24]>> And you and you will fail.

[00:01:28]Uh, one can try and maybe even try to be charming to see if you can get it out of you, but it seems that they may not that may not work this morning.

[00:01:35]>> Let's focus on economic.

[00:01:37]>> Let's focus on economic issues. We'll do that in just a minute after we focus on what the people from the Kingdom of Esatini share with us this morning in terms of a problem and we'd love to get your thoughts on how you would interpret that. That's where we are this week. The Kingdom of Esatini, one of the two countries that's completely surrounded by South Africa. Uh, the other being Lysoto. Um but this is the proverb for today. Only a fool tests the depth of a river with both feet. Only a fool tests the depth of a river with both feet. I see you smile.

[00:02:11]>> Yes. Because uh I am conversant with a popular proverb out and the proverb says uh if I can remember very well, silent uh silent rivers run deep. M.

[00:02:23]>> So if you don't know how deep a river is, please don't test it with both legs because chances of being carried away are very high.

[00:02:33]>> So the Swatini proverb is very relevant.

[00:02:36]>> Before you take a very dangerous gamble before you take a very you invest a lot of money, >> you take any serious decision, test it.

[00:02:45]>> Test it first.

[00:02:46]>> That is the message we are being given.

[00:02:48]>> I don't but I've been very close there. M >> into the kingdom of Zuruland.

[00:02:54]>> Zuruland.

[00:02:55]>> And I was very surprised that when it comes to marriage, the Zuru royalties prefer to marry from not Zuru themselves, but they go to either Loto or Lewini.

[00:03:08]>> Interesting.

[00:03:08]>> I think they understand genetics very well.

[00:03:13]>> But don't ask me what I was doing in the kingdom.

[00:03:15]>> That is why you are the economist. And we will leave it >> for another day. for another day.

[00:03:23]>> So the Africa Forward summit took place over the last couple of days and that came to an end yesterday with a thrilling remark from the uh president of Kenya um President William R who insisted yet again about how there needed to be fair play when it came to global financing and how Africa is not asking for a seat at the table anymore but that is at the table and making the rules okay. Uh sounds great. But then let's look at some of the agreements that were made um during this summit and whether they actually look um in the proper direction. A lot of people are talking about uh the thought that Africa's economies Africa's nations rather need to be economy facing and if they're not economy building facing then we are wasting time. The Nairobi commuter rail upgrade about 12.5 billion shillings. They're some of the major agreements that investment deals signed between William Rutman Emanuel Macron during Macron's visit to Kenya and the Africa Ford summit in Nairobi over the last couple of days.

[00:04:23]12.5 billion shillings for rehabilitation and modernization of the Nairobi commuter rail lines linking areas such as Yokima, Embakasi Royokuyu and the Ruta Gong corridor.

[00:04:35]$800 million that's about n 104 billion shillings port logistics and infrastructure JV partnership involving logistics and cargo infrastructure connected to the port of Mombasa. French shipping giant CMACGM announced plans to renovate the terminals at the port of Mombasa with investments reportedly reaching 750 rather 700 million euro.

[00:04:59]Energy and climate. The Cipetto wind farm expansion. Additional 100 megawatts. Wind power expansion worth around $250 million.

[00:05:08]National electricity control center.

[00:05:10]Agreement for construction of a new electricity control center aimed at improving grid reliability. We keep going on and on. XN Masinga Dam rehabilitation nuclear corporation which Oanda is very excited about. Sustainable aviation fuel digital and technology agriculture and trade. 5.6 billion shilling engineering and science complex at the University of Nairobi plus technical equipment support for four Kenyan universities health and blue economy broader investment commitments to the tune of 1 billion euro in Kenya focused investments all of these were inked I mean it goes into the detail but you get the the the main picture and I'm sure you looked into some of these the very simple question when we're talking about nations needing to be economy facing these are good things are they not?

[00:06:01]>> I think they they are good things.

[00:06:04]>> But it depends on who you are.

[00:06:06]>> Okay.

[00:06:06]>> If you look at the list is quite long.

[00:06:08]>> Mhm. Very long. This is what I've done is not even scratched the surface.

[00:06:10]>> Yes. Uh in fact we we can spend the next 30 minutes just looking at the list itself.

[00:06:16]>> Yeah. And uh I think it's a good statement that we should be economy facing because when KK or Kenya government came to power that was our dream >> that we should put politics at the back and economics at the front >> but that has not really happened. The question should be and maybe the first question our discussion should be what would China or UK or the US and other big economic powers say about this investment program because French are not in Kenya alone. A lot of other people are here.

[00:06:46]>> Yes, >> the Chinese have been here big with SG with expressway with the port of Ramu >> and very many other projects. So I think French have come to compete with other people who are deeply entrenched here and I would like to know their reaction.

[00:07:01]>> But if you look at all these projects if they are put if they implemented I think would have an effect. Now the big question I should be asking is we know we know yesterday and the day before yesterday 2day summit we know there are some people who benefited.

[00:07:15]>> Yes.

[00:07:16]>> If you own a Uber transport company if you own a hotel >> they really did very well because of the demand for those services. So there are benefits in the short run.

[00:07:24]>> So the big question you should be asking is if all these projects are implemented who will benefit in the long run >> and the question should be the common moni >> that should be the starting point. If we implement all this project for port logistics, energy control center, AI, agriculture, UN new building and brew economy, how could the ordinary Kenyan benefit?

[00:07:46]>> Because I've been interacting with other countries that have been investing here, the ones I've mentioned, US, UAE, Turkey, China and so on. But has the ordinary Kenyan failed that? So the best test of this summit whether it was successful or not is to find out if one as we try to use it is the word we we use all the time is to find out if one will affiliate if I go to Kakamega if I go to Shamoho if I go to Meu if I go to Machakos one or two years from now and they start saying I think there are more jobs for us >> I think our agricultural products have a market as before I came here I was sitting outside here and I remember seeing on one of the WhatsApp groups, somebody from Bonangas sent a message.

[00:08:31]In fact, it was an SOS message and he was saying, "I have three tons of avocados that I need to the market.

[00:08:38]>> Three tons of avocados I need need to go to the market."

[00:08:42]>> So, the test of pudding is eating and let's see how ordinary Kenyans are going to benefit from this summit. That's my take.

[00:08:49]>> Mhm. Off the top of your head, do you see from this how ordinary Kenyans will benefit as a result of this summit?

[00:08:55]Maybe in the long run, >> okay, >> maybe the long run, but not the short run.

[00:08:59]>> Because when you talk about port logistics, we know ports need to be efficient. So if they efficient, >> then we expect the cost of goods and services to go down >> because it will take take less time to come. It will be faster. But we need to see that reflected in the prices >> because one of the big cost of goods and services is transport. So we hope we are going to see that. Now when you talk about control energy control center we hope we expect to have less breakouts.

[00:09:25]I've been suffering from breakouts in the last one month. I hope there will be less of that. When you talk of nuclear energy I hope the price of energy is going to go down because the supply will go up >> because we have an an interesting energy market in Kenya where more energy is supplied but the price does not go down because of >> you know people like independent power producers and so on. Agriculture is the main state of this economy. So will Kenyan farmers have bigger market in France or European Union so that if I have potatoes, if I have avocados, if I have tea, if I have coffee, have a market for it. Now my biggest concern is I was looking at the trade between Kenya and France.

[00:10:05]>> Yeah.

[00:10:06]>> And I was finding out what do we export there is raw materials, coffee, tea, cut flowers, uh spices.

[00:10:14]But when you check what we import from France, it is >> finished products.

[00:10:18]>> Finished products, perfumes, chemicals, machinery, >> wine and such things. So if this we to have this imbalance corrected.

[00:10:27]>> So my answer is in the long run if this is implemented, we want to the elderly Kenyans to feel it.

[00:10:34]>> Maybe not people like me and you.

[00:10:37]>> Prof. If I could if I could jump in before we get deep into the discussion, is this between President R and President Macron or is it between France and Kenya and Africa by extension? And then we had this discussion yesterday and there's no harm in repeating this question. Governments are exist in perpetuity and for posterity.

[00:11:02]What guarantee do we have? Remember that Macron is leaving office next year 2027.

[00:11:06]President R is seeking re-election next year and it's not cast on stone that he'll be re-elected. Of course, he might be reelected.

[00:11:14]Remember that when President President Kyata in 2020 inked some deal with the French to construct the Ronimo summit at a cost of 150 billion to 200 billion. It never materialized because the president R's administration cancelled that deal. We incurred some cost to avoid some litigation in London.

[00:11:38]What guarantee do you have that these several deals in will actually materialize will actually see the light of day?

[00:11:46]>> Uh I saw that coming.

[00:11:48]>> In fact, one of the things I was very eager in this summit which I didn't didn't come out I didn't get it is the French reaction to the cancellation of that project. It was a big project and I thought that finally when we talk of big projects the French had the foot on the door but it was canceled and maybe one of the things I would wanted to know is if I if I overheard maybe without them knowing president R and President Macarron discussing about our projects I would have wanted to know what they discussed. Back to your question I think this is the biggest problem that uh we have in this country that our economics is tied to political cycles. So I have my 5 years a president, my 5 years an MP, my 5 years a woman, all my projects are tied to 5 years. So when I leave the person who represents me starts a fresh >> and that was a bit about Quebec's vision 2030. It was trying to transcend presidencies, elections and so on.

[00:12:41]>> So the question is whether we are guaranteed these projects will continue.

[00:12:46]My hope is that they will that the next president the next whoever is going to be in France or in Kenya is going to carry these projects along. But it's a big if because every president who comes has his own or her own projects. I'm using her because we still have in Kenya had a female president in Kenya >> and I think I would like us to have one just to see the difference after 60 years. So there's no guarantee this one will be >> will be will go up to the to the end but we hope they can because they look from the paper they look very good projects >> and they would benefit majority of Kenyans.

[00:13:17]>> Again >> we hope that they will be carried for.

[00:13:21]>> Mhm. Is it between uh President R and President Mcron in an individual capacity? Because remember that President Mcron is uh looking for credibility in Europe. President William R appears to be arrived at the political scene and of course the global scene global the global stage with a lot of gusto and he appears to be resetting uh the configuration of the African setup. Is it between the two individuals or between the two countries and the continent? By extension.

[00:13:52]>> If you remember when President R got into power, he tried to frown his credentials up as a panaffricanist.

[00:13:59]>> And I think I would see this conference in the same perspective, but he still believes that he has Panaffric credentials.

[00:14:06]>> So both Macron and President R had a chance to showcase their global reach, their global network. And that's why you kept on hearing that presidents are coming, that president are coming. So for the purpose of politics, I think it was a good it was good for President R.

[00:14:23]Kenyans my my Panaffrican credentials are still there.

[00:14:26]>> I'm not alone. I'm not isolated because after 2024 protest, there was a back rush against Kenya.

[00:14:32]>> So he's trying to build new bridges. Now for President Mcron, I think he's the greatest beneficiary because >> France has not been having very good image in West Africa. they withdrawing from a lot of countries or being away whichever way you look at it.

[00:14:47]>> So to get a new footing in an Englishspeaking country that was a kufo for Macron. So for Macron I would see it was a he was a beneficiary because of that and that's why I was asking earlier what would France or China not France but what would UK or China >> say about this this >> because it was an issue to have a French French franophhone conference in a English-speaking country. I also see it in a different perspective. For a long time, Rwanda was the range pin of French influencil's country because they speak French and Budy.

[00:15:20]>> But now, if you go to Rwanda for a conference, you speak in English.

[00:15:24]>> So maybe the French has realizing that Kenya could be another starting point.

[00:15:28]>> Remember, French also have a lot of interest in Indian Ocean, Komoros and places like Madagascar. So Kenya would be a very good bridge between the east and west. M >> but to cut the story short I think the conference if you look at the list you have put here the summit the list you have put here about the projects that would be implemented I would say it is between Kenya and France >> but if you look at it from a political angle it was between president R and president macron >> right >> and both of them I'm sure they get they have something to gain from there >> remember by bringing all those presidents here president macaron had a chance to reach out to them >> you know I don't know whether you are married but the best way to get somebody to marry you and to get closer to you would be to take that person out maybe in the in a cafe or over a trip to Mombasa or somewhere else the conversation changes.

[00:16:18]>> So when you get this West African president and bring them to Kenya I'm sure the conversation will be very different if the conversation was taking place in West Africa >> and I think that was the coup that I'm saying President Macaron had on those presidents. I'm sure they talked a different language in Kenya as compared when they were in West Africa as well.

[00:16:35]And the French can talk a good game when they take you out. That's for sure.

[00:16:38]>> Yes.

[00:16:39]>> I have not been a victim of them. But I know they are good enough.

[00:16:43]>> Okay. So there's one thing that we look specifically at here which is basically the talk of the town at the moment with uh all of this that it just so happens that a cancelled project for the MA summit Roni uh road that is currently under construction in Kenya under a different partnership, a different project was cancelled and now 7 billion shillings is actually being paid to the French for the cancellation of the contract that same project is now being spent on in Kenya at the moment. I want I am trying to link this to the economy.

[00:17:23]Often times we say well the economy is growing and we see it growing at a macro level and we say that inflation is down and that we've grown by you know certain number of percentage points. Most of us don't even know what those things mean.

[00:17:34]At the end of the day the economy is growing. If I have a shilling in my pocket and I've had a meal that's when I know that the economy works, isn't it?

[00:17:41]>> Or if I've saved some money. most important, >> right? How do you translate that which we see in these mega projects um this major highway is being built for example 7 billion shillings down the potty because you know for whatever reason somebody decided to cancel the contract.

[00:17:59]How do all of these things actually affect me when we talk about that project for example as one of the the ones that takes on this big chunk of change?

[00:18:11]That that's a very hard question but let's let's start from the from the beginning paying somebody 7 billion for canceling a project.

[00:18:18]>> Mhm.

[00:18:19]>> I think I would like to become a contractor to be getting free money for doing nothing. Can you imagine being paid 7 billion for doing nothing?

[00:18:26]>> But that's the nature of contracts that there is a lot of money tied in the contract itself that if you do this is what will happen.

[00:18:32]>> So I think Kenya avoided being dragged into deeper regal issues by just paying that. But you can see the French are also recovering because they are bringing more money 12.5 billion in the in in making the the commuter. So what I suspect is that behind the scenes there was some negotiation >> that you canled this but you can't give us this.

[00:18:54]>> But I still don't understand why that project was canceled.

[00:18:57]>> To me that was quite surprising.

[00:18:59]>> Yeah. particularly knowing that it was uh the particular if you consider the amount that was involved if you consider the importance of that project but one one such position is that uh it is who signed it was a different president a new president wanted to beated >> legacy project >> yes to look at it now back to your hard question that you're looking for time to think about it >> was a question everybody has been asking me quoting my relatives my friends that if the economy is growing why am I feeling it.

[00:19:29]>> Yeah.

[00:19:30]>> So, there's a time I passed around Girugin. I was going to Nasha and I found some young girls and boys, young men and women selling yogurt on the side of the road.

[00:19:42]>> Mhm.

[00:19:43]>> And they told me that uh there used to be more money during Cana than now.

[00:19:49]>> And that was surprising to me. So I asked them, what do you mean? They told me you know around that time there was always some money people buying yogurt from us and so on. They told me now we don't have in fact they have been removed from that place. So when you have big projects like highways super and so on >> the economic expectation is that when you build this this road there are two ways people invest in the shortland you employ people >> people who build the roads people who supply those products and so on. So the economy is stimulated by these big projects. That's what John Min and Kings talked about almost 100 years ago. The the the stimulation effect of the government expenditure. So when you have such projects, people benefit immediately. But we we hope that in the long run more people will benefit because if you're an investor, it becomes easier for you to transport your goods and services. Yeah.

[00:20:40]>> If you're a farmer, if you are uh doing any business, it becomes easier. So the cost of transport goes down. And if the cost of transport goes down, you take less time to do what you are doing, then the economy becomes more productive and everybody benefits.

[00:20:53]>> Right?

[00:20:54]>> So in the short run very few people benefit but in the long run more people benefit and that is why such project should not be tied to politics.

[00:21:03]>> It should be tied to economic reality.

[00:21:05]>> So for example the road from to summit we know definitely even many people benefit. Yeah. people from Naro, people from western Kenya, people from Sudan, people from Uganda, people from Rikia to people benefit. So it's a viable project. But the question is as it is being constructed, are the people along that road thinking of what they will transport? Because a road can be there, but if you have nothing to transport or use >> it doesn't benefit you.

[00:21:33]>> So I'm hoping that as we have these projects, the government is also looking at the multiplier effect that this road is built. What are you going to do as a farmer? What are you going to be to be to do as a constructor? What are you going to do as an importer? So that at the end of the day, we all benefit from that.

[00:21:50]>> Right?

[00:21:50]>> The question is convincing politicians and convincing people like you and me that we should benefit in the long run when the economist say we shall all be dead.

[00:22:01]What would it take then? Because I mean the as we say from this list, these are fantastic projects. They're great things. I mean, who wouldn't want their blue economy to survive or or thrive rather? Who wouldn't want health um um commuter rail? Who wouldn't want things like, you know, great digital hub at the University of Nairobi? Who wouldn't want that? But can you It's like going for plastic surgery when you need a triple bypass.

[00:22:30]>> Mhm.

[00:22:31]>> That's what it sounds like to me.

[00:22:33]See see my biggest concern is these projects are between France and Kenya >> and they are imposed from bottom up.

[00:22:42]That's that's why it was a summit. M >> the question is if you ask Kenyans in the counties what would they have wanted right and that's a great disconnect between what politicians at the top want what French want and what people on the ground want and they want what you have said they want money in their pocket >> and whether this project will be successful or not whether the ma summit road or res will be successful depends on whether people will have money in their pockets because most Kenyans were not even following this summit >> they don't know what was the discussion but at the end of They will be asking uh can I get some money? Will I be able to pay my school fees? Will I be able to pay my my medical services? So that connection is what we need >> that what people at the top think and what people at the bottom think there's some convergence and they see the benefits >> and the other question we should be asking is are we changing the economic environment so that I am able now to see the use of SDL the use of that expressway so that I'm a farmer I become a better farmer. M >> so if I'm working in a mining industry I'm also mining better if I'm a student I realize now I need to work harder because when I finish school there will be some work for me >> so we need to see people need to see the future and again that's why I was talking about vision 2030 >> that any big project we come up with should be part of a bigger picture like vision 2030 and so on >> it will not be interpreted by politicians >> maybe prof looking at it uh broadly uh the heads of now imploring uh President Mcron and pushing for easy access to credit. Are we about to see a total shift uh in terms of economic dealing with remember that China has made a great uh inroads in some countries in Africa.

[00:24:30]We've seen uh USA we've seen our president saying that he's not looking east or west but we must be looking somewhere. Are we about to see some total shift in terms of economic dealing?

[00:24:42]>> Let's start uh with with something you mentioned that is very important that these countries want easy access to credit so that uh you can get cheaper interest rates if you get loan from China, from France, wherever you get it.

[00:24:54]I think that is very important for countries because most countries run a deficit. So they always borrowing money.

[00:24:59]But even before we go to that we need to find out or to ask are we getting is a credit as citizens of this country.

[00:25:05]>> Mhm. cuz one of the biggest in innovations or one of the biggest uh uh observations we made when Kbaki came to power and uh people can contest that economically he did quite well was easy access to credit and that's why the economy did very well you have a project you wanted money it was very easy to get that's when we found people hawking loans on the streets of Nairobi >> so let's not just think about governments getting access to credit but also individuals like you and me >> when I looked at 2026 six economic survey. One of the things that surprised me is the liquidity of the banks. They have a lot of money that they not borrowing or they not lending because people don't feel that they are confident enough to borrow money and they invest.

[00:25:47]>> So on the architecture of of economics I think there has been a big shift since president there has been a big push since president came to power >> for a new global financial architecture.

[00:26:00]>> Yes.

[00:26:00]>> Because he he says that it is cute against Africa. Mhm.

[00:26:04]>> Which is true because if you look at the reserve currency, >> if you look at who borrows and who is rent, if you look at who pays interest rates, it's normally the less developed countries.

[00:26:14]>> Mhm.

[00:26:14]>> But remember the the global architecture that we we have to be financial architecture >> have been there since World War II head of World War II.

[00:26:22]>> They bron institutions, the MF bank and so on.

[00:26:26]>> So the only way to reduce the effect or the power of that architecture is to come up with counterwe. Mhm.

[00:26:34]>> So like now the US has a counter which is China because as the president says he's neither facing east or facing west because he has a choice.

[00:26:42]>> You have a choice.

[00:26:43]>> There was a time there was no choice.

[00:26:44]You could either face one or the other.

[00:26:45]That's right.

[00:26:46]>> So if we have to reduce the effect of this global economic players world bank, IMF, US and the rest we need to counterweight. But if I ask you what is a counterweight to IMF? What's a counterweight to World Bank? Mhm.

[00:26:59]>> What's a counterwe to all these big institutions? So unless they have a counterwe their power will continue. M >> so I think president has a good dream that we need a more brain field in a global financial architecture >> but so far we don't have any counterweight to the big players >> and we hope people have been talking about brick and so on >> but so far we still have the dollar the euro >> as the key reserve currencies not the yan >> or the d or the dham and the rest >> not yet >> the question is who is going to burrow the cut >> indeed >> is it president because the He talks it's like uh he's actually the new entrance. He's fairly new because you can see have been here for 40 years. We've seen a is now doing more than 20 years. We've seen all the other presidents Sam the president of Tanzania Samo is new but she's a bit reserved. She's not really going out but is President William R is sort of really going by the bulls. talking about he became the president. He became the president and not not more than two months after that he held the first climate summit in Nairobi and started having this conversation about the global financing architecture and was insistent on some of these things. He has been consistent. He has been consistent there and you even remember he was so critical of uh the conglomeration of countries being host African countries being hosted by one European country.

[00:28:31]>> He was saying come to Africa Macron is the first to come.

[00:28:35]That's why I said it was it was from from optics and everything this was a this was a good move >> strategic >> but remember we are being hosted by Japan by Korea by Russia by us we always being hosted by somebody else >> so and that's a part of the architecture he's talking about that other people define our economic and political trae trajectory >> maybe the time we did that >> but I think for us to be successful we need maybe some counterweights >> counterweights is and I have two I have two big questions Prof. We'll park the the so we'll start with one and then you must remind me I must ask the heavyweight question after that. Um maybe a counterweight is actually dealing with the economy of particular nations. We've seen that um indoor in Namibia has done it.

[00:29:23]>> Mhm.

[00:29:23]>> Over the last couple of months they have been now declared debtree. They have no external debt. They've paid it up. So they're at a position whereby nobody is dangling any kind of carrot.

[00:29:37]Burkina Faso is well on its way to doing the same thing. And it's not even their president. It's an interim administration under Troria. That's one thing we often forget. He's not even an elected president. But they shown that some some things can be done. So whereby we're saying that the game must be played when the direction in which you're looking at in terms of development, aid, and assistance is the is the measure. Could there be a third entrance into this game where it's saying how about you are then looking insula fixing your fiscal issues paying off your debt and then remaining reliant could that be an entrance in this game but we have been there who who us if you remember during kbak era we had forgotten about IMF if you remember >> in fact about 95% of our jet our budget was from us tax tax went up and so So we have been there before and we can do that.

[00:30:33]>> So one of the big problem in Africa is that anytime we think of any big reform economic or politically we always look outside. We don't look inside.

[00:30:42]>> So for example if we dealt with corruption in this country >> merlessly and without without varism >> I'm sure by the end of this year we should not need any money from IMF or from from out bank. There's a lot of money that is wasted and we and so on.

[00:30:59]So before we even charity starts at home before we think about France and others who are going to help us can we do that ourselves. So I agree with you there's a third way and that way is standing inside prospecting yourself finding out where things are going wrong and correcting them.

[00:31:13]>> So if a company is having a problem the starting point should not be blaming the customers and competitors. It is an introspection. What can we change inside this company before we look outside and that's what the c the African countries have failed. M >> so if you look at those 30 African countries that came for this summit and you analyze their economy I'm sure you find something that they can improve immediately without without talking to France without talking to China without talking to everybody >> but you're very unwilling to reform inside because of vested interest >> because if reformed some people would lose their influence some companies would go bankrupt and so on so I totally agree with you that before we think of what others can do let's see what we can do for ourselves Namibia and others and I've given you an example of during Kbak era when IMF was becoming relevant we can do it >> and even those that we looked and that's the other question here is that during this summit very few of us and maybe there are those who did and were silent actually looked at this person who's coming to offer you their hand in marriage in my village we normally say the person who comes to say they want to marry you they say thank you very much you have come so what they do before you actually come for the visit is that they send emissaries to your village to find out if there's poverty in your house, if there's madness, if there's something wrong with you people. So, which emissaries were actually looking at France's problem that France is one of is the second largest economy in Europe, but is suffering from a heavy tax issue. Their economy has been tanking over the last 10 years. There is uh investor there's lack of investor confidence. There's of course a political gridlock where um M Le Paul wanted to come in and change things essentially. There's a cry for renewed nationalism whereby you know Macron is trying to leave a legacy where he's saying we've actually made this come true with a lot of other countries in the world. There are protests on the streets of Paris every day about things like how much money they're spending on pensions and welfare and things like this. The economy has not grown significantly for the last 6 years.

[00:33:21]That's the country that we're talking about here who might also be in a spot of trouble who's coming to offer a hand of help.

[00:33:28]Does it matter that they may be going through a bit of a pickle but are offering up a hand of help here?

[00:33:34]>> That's an interesting question because uh one of the best ways to solve economic crisis as a politician is to deflect them.

[00:33:42]>> Okay.

[00:33:42]>> I remember during Mo era there would be a crisis >> and somebody would blame a neighboring country and so on. M >> we still do that always. So sometimes externalizing a problem becomes a solution which is not a very good solution.

[00:33:56]>> So I can assure you that if you look at the way the summit was framed nobody had time to ask those questions I can tell you that >> and for some reasons we don't pay a lot of attention on France >> one because of language >> then because there's so more focus on China more focus on the US and nowadays the the Arabian countries UAE and so on.

[00:34:18]So nobody focus about that and you are right that both president Macron and President R in a very similar situation that we have internal problems and France and in Kenya. So if you can externalize that that would probably reflect a lot of pressure from the country.

[00:34:36]>> So for president macaron that was head in France possibly that was the head in Kenya >> but we forgot about other things. But you can be sure after 2, three, one week all those things will be back. That's why I agree with you that we should not shy away from the reality. The reality is France has it own economic problems.

[00:34:56]Kenya has its own economic problems and somebody must bear the cut.

[00:35:00]>> So if you look at the Kenyan situation, the economic I was looking at the economic survey of 2026 and I saw the economy declining >> from about 4 something there was a decline of about 1%. M >> that was significant because if you look at the way things are would expect the economy to be growing right. So whether you are president macaron or president r I think the most important thing is you face the economic reality trading with other countries having good summit summit summit is good but I hope that at the end of it >> is to not just be about politics >> about good headlines but about making sure that the citizens of France the citizens of Kenya benefit from these deals >> because at the end of the day everybody want to pay rent everybody want to pay school fees everybody want to eat at the about the economic reality indeed.

[00:35:48]>> Maybe Prof. Macron is coming in a very huge but uh is a bit uh wise because he appears to be mainstreaming his cooperation with not just Kenya but East Africa. he now wants to partner with East African Development Bank and uh these might go a long way because remember that in this particular part of the continent even uh regional blocks like East African Community we've had uh claims that some countries do not even remit their contribution to such blocks.

[00:36:22]We also even see saw the other day uh nominated MPs like the a East African uh legislative assembly yala people like uh David Sangok they were complaining they are not being paid on time because of the remissions will this u cooperation and mainstreaming of Macron and France into the East African Development Bank maybe reawaken this particular block and also reawaken superpowers like uh Britain to see yes there's another entrance in that block that uh we had actually we we had a footing since colonial era.

[00:37:00]>> That's an interesting observation because uh one of the one of my thinking and I mentioned that area was France getting into Kenya through all these projects will be an entry point to the rest of East Africa because Kenya is very influential.

[00:37:14]>> Yes.

[00:37:14]>> So if you can get to Kenya, you can get the rest of East Africa. Some of these projects can then be scaled up into the rest of East Africa or the East African region. But as to what is happening to East African community, that has been a major concern to me.

[00:37:28]>> Mhm.

[00:37:28]>> In fact, it's interesting. We are talking about summit with France, we talking about China. In fact, we talk about China, we talk about US, we talk about UAE more than East African, >> more than East Africa. So, and it's unfortunate because to me I thought that was a starting point in our quest to become an economic broke and develop the economy. Charity starts at home.

[00:37:48]>> So, President Mcron can can see that these institutions are not very strong.

[00:37:53]>> So, if they're not very strong, I can take advantage of them >> and and and go and and uh build them in the image of France in a way that France is going to benefit.

[00:38:05]terms.

[00:38:05]>> Remember that at the end of the day, France and other countries, China, UAE, and so on have their strategic interests.

[00:38:11]>> Let's not always assume that they come here because they love us so much. No, they have their strategic interest.

[00:38:17]>> So when you see for the French president coming from France to Kenya, coming on the platform and telling us to keep quiet and listen and so on. I'm sure it's not because uh because of just politics. I think he has some interest at heart and if we don't take care of our strategic interest somebody will take care of their own.

[00:38:35]>> Mhm.

[00:38:35]>> So we need to strengthen our institutions. You can see how China has been trying to make use of uh African Union.

[00:38:43]>> True.

[00:38:44]>> Very well even building their headquarters not because they love us so much but they have their interest they will go through that >> the same way. I'm sure I don't know again whether you are married if they are serious man.

[00:38:54]>> This is the second time.

[00:38:55]>> Yeah I know. I know you'll probably beat your mother-in-law a very good house. Is that true? If you can because you love her so much. It's because you know your mother if you build your mother-in-law a very good house and so on, you you have a lot of peace at home.

[00:39:10]>> So that's exactly what French the Japanese and the rest are doing in Africa. They're building a house for their mother-in-law because >> trophy are dispensing wisdom this morning apart from has has anybody contested my wisdom?

[00:39:25]Economics is not tied to wisdom but they are compatible.

[00:39:28]>> They are compatible. They intertwined.

[00:39:30]>> It's interesting that these conversations are being had uh whereby there is a call for nations to be economy facing and Kenya at the moment um has just recently released its finance bill 2026 and that we can tie some of these things together. We know that the national treasury is not just the CS's office whereby you know uh announcements of payments are going to be made every Tuesday, Thursday, whatever, but that there's a whole battalion of folks who are sitting and the phrase I like to use crunching the numbers in terms of what it should be.

[00:40:02]These are folks who are worth their salt made up of economists, made up of statisticians, made up of policy, you know, uh folks. they they wouldn't normally know their numbers but it seems that with every finance bill which we were told yesterday it's not necessary for you to have every year is that it is not economy facing now when we look at these big projects that the government is getting into be they PPPs be they be bilaterals between one country and another like France for example what would it take for you to have a truly economyfacing budget number one or a state of things for these numbers that we see being crunched into a 4.7 million trillion shilling budget for example for you to really say that we are growing the economy that we may we may talk about it every day but do we really understand what it means what would the numbers that are crunched in Treasury from the 30th of August until the 30th of April actually mean for you to now say this is where we need money. This is where we are going to put it appropriations and this is where you're going to get it from.

[00:41:17]You know, you're asking a very interesting question because one of the biggest inventions in the Kenya constitution was public participation.

[00:41:25]>> So when the treasury madines and others are making the budget, they always call for public participation.

[00:41:32]>> But do we participate >> or do they take the participation into consideration? So I am from the University of Nairobi and I don't think I've had a discussion with the treasury when they making the business. Have they have not called my faculty this is our budget what is your comments?

[00:41:44]>> They assume that we going to participate.

[00:41:46]>> Mhm.

[00:41:46]>> So because Kenyans don't participate in budget making and in other political processes the other people make the budget for them and one of the outcome of that is we lose sense of reality.

[00:41:58]>> That's why you find people demonstrating on the street and say how did you put this tax here? How did you put this and this? So, so unless we start participating as voters, as citizen of this country in budgeting process, in con in conitutional process, in political process, wrong decisions will always be made >> because remember politicians have their vested interest. Like now if you look at all these budgets that you are seeing, all these big numbers you are seeing, somebody has 2027 in mind.

[00:42:25]>> Mhm.

[00:42:26]>> There's no question he won't nobody will say that. But we know that 27 2027 is in is somewhere the back of somebody's mind. So if we have to come up with good budgets, you have to come up with good political policies, then we must see beyond the politics, build 2027, be 2032, if we can transcend politics, then we can now say we are economy facing.

[00:42:48]>> But I've always insisted we are too much politics facing because remember a politician will not be voted in or out because of tomorrow to be because of today. So there's very high temptation that I want things that can be seen now.

[00:43:02]And that is why you find at the end of the day politicians like tangible projects, things that we can see.

[00:43:08]>> Yes.

[00:43:09]>> See if I'm sick or if I've been healed because of going to hospital. Nobody knows.

[00:43:13]>> If I'm have a PhD, nobody knows if I walk on the streets of Nairobi. But people will see the roads, the highways, the expressway, the building and say, "Ah, this guy is doing very well." So that's why if we stop seeing things through the eyes of politics and see through economics, economic reality, I'm sure we are going to come up with budgets that take care of take care of everybody and are intergenerational.

[00:43:35]>> But as long as we are braided by politics, we cannot see the reality. So what would this look like? Because you know often I mean I guess from the point where some some of us we if you see like just like you say I guess a lot of us we the visual um representation of something it's tangible then we can say okay this is now I understand that folks may be talking economically when they say that today I have to buy a tomato for 20 shillings per tomato >> and then somebody could tell you well that has nothing to do with the economy it has everything to do with the fact that tomatoes don't do well in the wet season agriculturally they don't they do better when the climate is of a drier nature >> as an economist I would tell you why don't you turn it into paste and keep it >> this is what I'm asking now we are on the because I'm saying what can you actually do so for if I think about it in the very basic terms that a good economy is then being able to transcend space and time and season so then you say that we have put these safeguards in So that no matter what then you're able to to deal like you say even if there is a glut we can dehydrate our milk even if there's scarcity we would have desiccated our maze so that we can use it later.

[00:44:55]How then do you say this is what we are going for so that the person then is able to still have three tomatoes for 20 shillings in their in their in their pantry whatever in their kitchen um because of the fact that you have put safeguards into the system to ensure that no matter what this thing will thrive should not be the direction in which we're going >> in fact one Nobel la he's an Indian noticed something very interesting Democracies really suffer from famine.

[00:45:28]>> Have you ever heard the US s from famine? Does it mean always rain?

[00:45:32]>> Does it mean always rain in Europe?

[00:45:34]>> But have you ever heard them talking about famine? So all you saying is that this through democracies, you're able to put the safeguards.

[00:45:41]>> Mhm.

[00:45:41]>> So that when you go to parliament, you're able to have checks and balances.

[00:45:45]When you come up with a budget, you're able to put checks and balances. Cuz one reason why we do so badly is because those check guards are not put into place. And when they are put into place because we are not always very ethical.

[00:45:56]>> We are not always very we always don't don't think about justice they are removed. And that's why you find a lot of the decisions that are detrimental to the economy being made. And let me give you a good example that nobody is saying. I always talk about economic reality. If you look at one of the reason why this budget is so heated is because of tax.

[00:46:18]>> Mhm.

[00:46:19]>> And why is tax such a big hot issue in this country? Because right from day one, President R and Kenya Kwana government had told us they want to do with debt.

[00:46:28]>> Yes, >> they want to stop borrowing. So that that independence is talking about that we want now our new global financial architecture. One of the starting point, one of the key pranks is making sure that you independent. You don't go borrowing money.

[00:46:40]>> But how do you stop borrowing money?

[00:46:42]>> You have to start getting money from taxes.

[00:46:45]>> And how do you raise more taxes? You have to make the economy more vibrant, more coy for investor and consumers. And how do you make that economy very good very very suitable for investors and consumers? You have to make sure there's rule of law. You have to make sure that people are confident about tomorrow. You have to make sure people don't fear their government. You have to make sure that people are confident to spend and invest. And that's why there's that interconnectedness that we are always supposed to see between politics, economics and the decisions we make as individuals. If we don't see that connection, we shall talk in 2032, 2037 and so on. So economics is not supposed to be that complicated. We complicate it >> because we know that if you do this, this will happen.

[00:47:28]>> We know that there's nothing complicated about the econ.

[00:47:30]>> It's a simple formula, isn't it? Simple formula. Input this, this is going to be your output.

[00:47:34]>> Yeah, that is it. But the question is vested interest making things get complicated. For example, how do we create jobs?

[00:47:42]>> It's a very simple. Is there demand for something? So if we start now exporting more tea, more flowers, more sugar cane to France, the farmers will produce more can they make more money. They'll be happy.

[00:47:54]>> So one of the question that nobody's asking and is why are you not talking about exporting empa to France? Why cut for hours?

[00:48:02]>> Why you not importing empa why you not telling French men to start using >> why you not being like Hungary and exporting your knowledge?

[00:48:07]>> That is it and expertise.

[00:48:09]>> Yes. The other reason why why economy is supposed to do very well is that we don't do enough research to understand what is driving the economy.

[00:48:15]>> If I asked you for example what drives the the economy of mueni >> you'll see it is mangoes but do you have evidence?

[00:48:22]>> If I ask you what drives the economy of narok you probably see people people selling kettle but do you have evidence?

[00:48:28]>> So I think the economic models we have are based in the west not on the reality here. So as maybe the treasury the government should probably commission more research so that we understand exactly how economy operates so that we make as we make those decisions they based on reality. So decisions that are being made in the past or even presently decisions to spend money or decisions on how to appropriate or decisions about all of these things that essentially affect the economy are largely not based on any kind of research and information.

[00:48:57]>> That's my that's my worry. They are based particularly on how politicians feel and you have seen somebody you have seen very many politicians go and say we are giving you this this this project we are giving you this project but is it based on some analysis or what what what is it based on are you building this road because you feel the returns will be higher than this one or because you want more votes.

[00:49:18]>> So let's base our economic decisions on reality not politics.

[00:49:23]>> Let's base our taxation on reality not politics. M >> if we do that the economy is going to pro to improve sooner than later.

[00:49:30]>> Mhm.

[00:49:31]>> After all, nobody will come and improve this economy. It's not French, it's not Chinese, it's not UAE.

[00:49:35]>> It is us. It's our economy. We are the consumers. We are the investors.

[00:49:39]>> Mhm.

[00:49:39]>> Maybe Prof. Have you bombarded Macron and France with a lot of requests because he has a situation where we are many deals more than 200 including climate change related AI and even the president was talking about that nuclear plant that says I'm so enthusiastic about because that's the part of the country where I come from remember it was rejected by Kifi it's now being accepted in SI the president went ahead saying that these are people with experience that uh dates back to immediately after second world war have we bombarded them with a lot of requests that are not feasible >> uh there's a time I went to the countryside one time I'll not tell you where >> and I I've been to Shamo I've been to OCO beach all those places you're talking about I know even where the nuclear plant is going to be put so when I was There I somebody asked me for some donation >> that I think we have a church project can you please donate some money to me so I give that person some money I will not give the amount then it was a very big family but within next 5 minutes two other people came to me they told me by the way I also have a I don't know whether it was true or not so I think what is happening is that the moment we found that the French can be of help to us weard them without of request And because they also have their vested interests, they are probably more accommodating. And that's why I'm concerned whether all these projects will be implemented in the long run.

[00:51:20]I think that also tells you that we have not been having people like President Muron coming to visit us and having such a free conversation. So we realize this president is very kind to us. So let me make all sorts of requests.

[00:51:31]>> But before we even make the request to president macaron, we should also introspect and ask what can we do for ourselves?

[00:51:38]>> There you go. what we have done for ourselves.

[00:51:40]>> So maybe we should be telling telling President Macron we have 1 billion for nuclear power. What can you add us?

[00:51:47]>> We have this for this project. What can you add us? Not starting from >> from zero.

[00:51:52]>> It starts with you.

[00:51:53]>> I think for the last six or seven years, one of the problem we had with African economy is that we have been victim of land helplessness >> that other people can do better than us, not us.

[00:52:02]>> Mhm.

[00:52:03]>> And I've asked this question on very many occasions. when we go demanding we want foreign investors the first implication there's money that's why you calling to come and invest so why don't we make that money ourselves >> right >> why not other people I always ask >> mhm >> and there's a lady who passed away recently called Jerry >> she she was a found of African moni online >> mhm >> the pioneer internet service provider in Kenya and she asked MBS students in my class that question and I have never forgotten that why do you people inviting people to come to make money.

[00:52:38]Why can't you make that money yourself?

[00:52:40]So, we should also before we invest, we invite the French, the Chinese and the rest to come and invest in this country, we should also make it easy for ordinary people like you and me to invest and make that money >> to make money here.

[00:52:51]>> Whatever prophet is saying is true because he's saying that at some point when he's in the village and somebody a second person comes and say by the way I also have it means the first one went and told them.

[00:53:01]>> Absolutely. If it was the porters, the president of the United States of America coming here, do you think we'll have bombarded him with these requests that ambassador would not even be possible for the for the 3 days you'll be here?

[00:53:13]>> Those are the questions.

[00:53:14]>> Yeah, >> I think the question would be whether you would even be that accessible in the first place.

[00:53:18]>> In fact, I would even become more forthright. Would he have told Kenyans to keep quiet?

[00:53:23]>> Well, that could open up a whole other can of worms, but we just don't have the time for it. Professor X and I thank you very much. to those words that you speak things definitely for us to think about if not to ignite the flame of thought in our minds. Asantana for us this morning.

[00:53:35]>> Thank you very much.

[00:53:36]>> Let's keep talking economics indeed.

[00:53:38]Good morning.

[00:53:38]>> This is the situation room. The only way to start your