The Cavs Have One Move Left...

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]I really thought this era of Cavs basketball was safe when they got to the conference finals when they finally broke through after years of flaming out in the playoffs. This Cavs team, by the way, is only the third team in franchise history, which goes back to 1970, that made the conference finals without LeBron on the roster. And it's the only modern version of the team that's ever done that. So, unquestionably, in terms of the playoffs going into the conference finals, this was a successful season for the Cleveland Cavaliers. And the only way in which this era wasn't going to be safe and we were going to revisit the Mobley trade stuff and Donovan Mitchell extension, James Harden trade, all that stuff was if they just didn't look like they could compete and they got swept by the Knicks. And unfortunately for them at least, that is exactly what happened. And I think it has opened up a lot of different possibilities to the point that pretty much everything is now on the table for Cleveland. And I think it's important to contextualize and think about their season as a whole because in the beginning of it, we all knew that there was a ton on the line this season and it was not going well. They obviously were really good a year ago. didn't perform in the playoffs, came into the season with more high expectations. Garland was hurt, Mitchell had to carry everything, and they weren't particularly good. And then they make the trade in the middle of the year for James Harden. And I think it's too far to say that it saved their season, but it certainly improved their ability to win in the playoffs. I don't think they get to the conference finals without the James Harden trade, just simply because of his availability compared to someone like Darius Garland.

[00:01:16]And ultimately, it ended up, like I said, in a successful season, but not without some worries along the way. And really, there's two different ways to think about how this Cavs season went and ended up. Either it's a success and you made the conference finals and you had a good postseason run and just ran into a Knicks team that's been playing incredibly well ever since game four of the Atlanta series and is just an incredibly difficult matchup for Cleveland with their size on the wings, with their ability to play really well in the fourth quarter. That was just going to be a difficult team for Cleveland to deal with. You can think about it that way or you could think about it in the we're supposed to be a contender and we're just not on the tier of some of these other teams. Obviously the Knicks, but you look at the Western Conference, how well would Cleveland have fared against some of the teams out there? And given how much they're paying for this roster, you could certainly evaluate this and say this just isn't worth it. It isn't worth it to say, "Hey, we made the conference finals. It was a success. We need to look deeper than that and decide to make some pretty massive changes." And those changes would begin with their contract situation this offseason. Because the number one thing I'm paying attention to for Cleveland, other than the Mitchell and the Harden thing that we're going to get to in a second, is their payroll.

[00:02:22]$222 million for next year. That's one of the most expensive teams in the entire league. That is well above the luxury tax and right at the second apron. The second second apron is 226. They are right there. And for a team that isn't a 100% lock it in contender, that is obviously a concern. Now, the nice thing for them is separate from the Mitchell and Harden situation, which we're going to talk about in a second, they don't have to do anything. Everybody is signed long-term with the exception of those two guys, Evan Mobley, Jared Allen, most of the rotation except for Max Drew, who has one year left on his deal. Dean Wade's a free agent. We'll talk about the free agency stuff in a second, but they don't have to do anything outside of the Mitchell and Harden situation.

[00:03:02]And these two things go together because I think everything that happens with James Harden is directly related to where Donovan Mitchell goes this offseason because he is a 2027 free agent. He's got a player option. He would turn that down if he got there. He would go into free agency. And Cleveland, if they don't sign him to an extension this off season risks Donovan Mitchell going into free agency in 2027.

[00:03:21]And that is a risk that in my opinion they simply cannot take. And so if Donovan Mitchell does not sign an extension this off seasonason, there are going to be a lot of trade rumors around him where he might want to go and where Cleveland might just want to kind of reset this roster and move in to a different phase and a different era for their team. Now, the the what this really all boils down to is have the Cavs done enough to convince Donovan Mitchell that this is a place that he can win and win big because I don't think there's any questions on Cleveland's side like they're going to offer him the max even though you could debate where Donovan Mitchell stands in the league hierarchy and whether it makes sense to pay him all this money.

[00:03:54]They're going to do it. Their entire goal for the last two plus years has been how can we convince Donovan Mitchell this is the place he wants to be. They're not going to all of a sudden change their tune now. Even though he didn't have some there were some postseason performances that weren't excellent on the part of Donovan Mitchell. You can have that debate a different day. From Cleveland's perspective, they want to keep him.

[00:04:11]They're going to put the extension in front of him. If he signs it, cool.

[00:04:14]Harden's going to come back. We'll look at maybe trading Mobly and Allen depending on, you know, just a variety of things. Giannis, whatever. We'll talk about that later. If he doesn't take the extension, if they offer it to him and he's like, "Nah, I'm good." Donov Mitchell's getting traded this offseason. There's just no scenario in which you can get to the trade deadline next year and Donovan Mitchell not have a contract. You can't risk losing him for nothing. You can't risk just that hovering over your team and the impact that'll have on your season, a season in which you're still going to have very high expectations. Donovan Mitchell not signing an extension, a full max extension offered by Cleveland this off seasonason is a trade request. That that is just how it breaks down with this situation in Cleveland. Now, if he does not sign it, all of a sudden James Harden is on the market as well. Whether that be because he opts into his player option and then becomes a trade candidate or he opts out, tries to find a team in free agency. Harden's future in Cleveland relies directly on what Mitchell does because there's just no scenario which Cleveland is going to trade away Donovan Mitchell and then try and rebuild their team around like James Harden. Whatever they have left, Harden would certainly be on the move. Now, if Mitchell comes back, if he signs the extension, couple of interesting options here for James Harden. I'm assuming given that they traded for him in the middle of the year, they have a little bit of an understanding. I don't think James Harden ever in the history of his entire career has gone to a new team and not had a plan for his contract in place going all the way back to Houston when they immediately signed into a contract after getting traded from OKC. So clearly there's a plan there and I'm interested to see what the plan is because he could just opt in and that gives him the most amount of money for next season. There's no team out there that's going to give James Harden more than $42 million next year. He can just opt into that and keep on going. He also could opt out in a way that helps Cleveland and him because if he opts out and they sign him to a deal that's like 2 years 75. That gives Harden more money total, a little bit more long-term security and helps Cleveland get a little bit more wiggle room underneath the second apron because his number this year would go from like 42 to 35 or so, which would really really help them from a luxury tax on a payroll standpoint.

[00:06:11]Maybe help them retain some of these guys we're going to talk about in a second here in free agency. That's a little bit in the weeds there. I think that second option is most likely what's going to happen assuming Mitchell ends up signing the extension which again is where Cleveland's offseason begins and ends in terms of free agency. Dean Wade is out there. Keon Ellis Kon Ellis didn't really do anything for them. Dean Wade is like decently important in terms of the size that he gives them. And again, if Harden's able to lower his number, it becomes easier to bring guys like that back. But as I said, they've got pretty much everybody signed longterm with the exception of of the two guys in the back court. Now, let's talk about trade stuff. If they don't run it back, if if if Mitchell doesn't sign the extension, I certainly think that he immediately becomes one of, if not the biggest trade names on the entire market outside of like the Giannis stuff, which we're going to talk about for Cleveland specifically later.

[00:06:56]And regardless of what you think about Donovan Mitchell in the postseason, his age, impending injury stuff, whatever you may think, he's very good and teams are going to want to trade for him. And I think there's a a lot of teams that potentially would line up and send an offer in for Donovan Mitchell. I want to begin by talking about Houston, a team that I've talked about uh in other just like trade videos that I think are an interesting option for Donovan Mitchell because they desperately need a backcourt player. They desperately need a guard even if Van Fleet comes back and is healthy this year. And there's just not a lot of options there. Like if Donovan Mitchell comes back, they don't have they're going to trade for Kyrie.

[00:07:29]Like that there's just not a lot of options for them out there. And so they might be decently aggressive if they decide that's what they want to do. So they could offer a variety of contracts like Finny Smith just kind of has to be here to make the contracts work even though that's not ideal. Reed Shepard, Jabari Smith, and then they've got future picks that aren't theirs. They've got a Nets pick. They've got or a Net swap, I should say. They've got a Nets outright pick. They've got a Phoenix pick. They can trade some of their own.

[00:07:51]Whatever combination of draft assets you want to do, but I think the offer begins with like a couple of the young guys like Reed Shepard or Jabari Smith and then that Phoenix pick and and some of the Nets picks. And then that would give Cleveland the opportunity to build around primarily Evan Mobley. Maybe they trade Jared Allen. Maybe they or certainly they would trade James Harden.

[00:08:07]Gives you kind of a nice place to start from with your rebuild. It's not ideal, but again, Cleveland probably ends up in that situation if Donovan Mitchell does not sign the extension. And I think Houston would be interested whether they want to trade a bunch of stuff in exchange for Donovan Mitchell. I'm not sure, but I think that's certainly a place that he would resign and want to be longterm uh with the success that he would presumably have there. Speaking of places he'd like to be, you also have to put the Miami Heat in any conversation with any of these big stars and it would be kind of all reliable here. Like you can put Tyler here at the center of the trade package. I put Yish Yakonis and then a pick in there as well. There's going to be fluctuating values here with any data of Mitchell trade that I put on screen. I more so want to put like a framework than try and actually guess exactly what the trade is going to be because different teams are going to value him in different ways. And depending on what the sweep stakes actually looks like, the value is just going to be different. But for Cleveland, this is kind of an a nice in between kind of move in terms of value for Mitchell where you get a right now piece and hero and then you get some future assets as well. I don't think it's super enticing, but Miami always needs to be mentioned. Uh kind of an off-the-wall one here. I I wondered if Cleveland would do Donovan Mitchell for France Vagner basically straight up.

[00:09:11]Would each team do that? Obviously Orlando wants to move their future forward a little bit here. Mitchell, Bane, Paulo, whatever else they want to put around those guys. Is that enough shooting and creation to kind of unlock their offense as they're looking to kind of go into a new era now without Jamal Mosley? I don't know. I I'm not sure that Orlando would do that even with the injury stuff with France Vagner because he's so good and he's so young. And if you're Cleveland, it's not necessarily ideal, but it's it's a pretty good place to start. If you can trade away some other guys and just kind of reset around France Vagner and Eva Mobley, it's not a bad place to be. I also I don't want this to happen, but there's like some chance that one of these teams at the top of the draft decides that they want to go out and get Donovan Mitchell.

[00:09:48]There's a bunch of interesting teams at the top within the top eight that do have uh picks and want to be good next year. Atlanta comes to mind with the eighth pick. The Clippers come to mind with the fifth pick. Although it's funny cuz Garland's already there. And then unfortunately my own Nets, which I don't want them to make this deal, but we know that Mitchell's wanted to be in New York in the past and it's not the Knicks, but still they could trade, you know, the sixth pick in the draft and a couple of the other young guys and maybe some picks and get Donovan Mitchell. I really hope that doesn't happen and I thought that possibility was just removed from the equation once they made the conference finals. But again, the way in which they lost might have changed things up. And again, if Mitchell doesn't sign the extension. Now, I'm not even going to bother going through James Harden trades because I don't know that there's going to be a ton of value out there and it would be similar to like the last three James Harden trades that we've seen where it's like some contracts and a pick or two. But if that does happen, the worst case scenario happens for Cleveland this offseason.

[00:10:35]Don Mitchell says, "I'm not signing the extension. I want to go elsewhere." They still can build a decent basketball team moving forward. And even though they don't have a ton of access to their future picks, they do still have the ability to get some assets from Mitchell and from Harden, maybe from Jared Allen as well. And whatever you get from those guys, plus Evan Mobley, is still a nice place to be. So, it's not a complete disaster, although I would assume people in Cleveland and their fans would like Donov Mitchell to come back next year.

[00:10:59]Now, if you push all of that to the side, the other big conversation that needs to happen here is if Mitchell and Harden stay, which I still think is the most likely outcome, what other moves can Cleveland make to improve their championship equity for next season? And the number one name on the list of course is Giannis Anttompo. And there were rumors in the playoffs like while Cleveland was still trying to get to the conference finals. Heavy heavy rumors that Milwaukee would be interested in a package centered around Evan Mobley in exchange for Yiannis Kmpo. A deal that in the middle of the year didn't make as much sense because it just would have caused so much upheaval for Cleveland.

[00:11:32]But now that we've seen kind of how the playoffs went and what that series potentially would have looked like if they had Giannis in place of Ed Moley, it certainly makes things interesting for Cleveland. Now there's a couple of things to tackle. One, Cleveland doesn't have access to a lot of future picks.

[00:11:45]They have the 29th pick in this draft and they don't have access to a ton of future ones. They can trade some, but this would mostly be an Evan Mobley for Giannis swap with a couple of things added on extra. I personally am questioning whether that's enough value for Milwaukee. Even though Mobly is arguably the best piece in any Giannis trade you could realistically get this off seasonason, still it's Giannis and I'm not sure where I'm at right now in terms of Evan Moley's trade value. Other issue for Cleveland is they have to get rid of a contract in the deal in order to make it actually happen. In this case, it's Dennis Rutder, which isn't the end of the world for Milwaukee because his contract is non-g guaranteed the following year. So, it's basically an expiring contract for next year if you want to view it that way. But the the gap between Mobley and Giannis' salaries is about 8 million bucks and they can't take on that $8 million.

[00:12:31]They've got to find somebody else. So, it's like a Sam Merrill or Dennis Shruder. given you might be losing Dean Wade in free a depth just gets a little bit limited if they start just having to pile on other contracts. So those are the two big issues with a Giannis to Cleveland trade. Although there are ways in which it makes sense. I'm not sure that it's enough value for Milwaukee without extra draft capital that the Cavs just don't really have and contractually it can be a little bit difficult to try to match things up. I think it's decently possible that this happens, but I certainly don't think Cleveland is in pole position to add Giannis. I still think a team like Houston is more interesting. Arguably, maybe even Miami is more interesting.

[00:13:06]I'm just not really sure where we're at right now with the overall trade value of Evan Mobley when it comes to him being the centerpiece of a Giannis trade. But if they were able to do it and it's Mobley and one other contract for Giannis and they start next year with Harden, Mitchell, Shuse, Giannis, I would assume in this scenario they would keep Jared Allen, but maybe they'd want to trade him for someone that can space the floor a little bit better. That is an incredible team and certainly a threat at the top of the Eastern Conference. And no doubt about it, an upgrade, assuming Giannis is healthy over the team they had this year that just made the conference finals. And that is certainly a very very interesting option to go from like, oh no, we might lose Donovan Mitchell to just kidding, we have Giannis now. Like that that is an incredible thing that could possibly happen there for Cleveland. Now, the last piece of the puzzle here in terms of trade stuff is Jared Allen. He always comes up is like, "Oh, how can we shake up the Cavs roster? Jared Allen, we got to trade that guy." And it's just never there's just never been enough value for them to justify trading him away. It's always funny, by the way, that they basically got him for free in the initial James Harden trade where the Nets trade him away and the Cavs are like, "Hey, we'll take Jared Allen. He's a good player.

[00:14:05]He's not like one of the five best centers in the league or anything, but you know, he's decently compensated as a decently fair contract. And even though his fit along Moley isn't always excellent, if Mo's not making his threes, I still think he's a good player and he gives them a nice option at the five spot that I'm sure other teams would like to have. It's just never been enough value for them to justify actually making the move. However, there's two scenarios in which I think it would make sense then for them to actually move him and there's some teams I think would be interested as well. One would be if they trade Mitchell and Harden and they're just tearing it down.

[00:14:32]It's just like Moy at the center of it.

[00:14:34]I think at that point it's you as long as you can get some kind of positive value a pick or something trading Jared Allen at that point makes sense because you're obviously like semi-rebuilding.

[00:14:42]And then the other scenario would be if they do trade for Giannis, that's not an excellent roster fit. Giannis has traditionally played either the five himself or alongside of a five that can space at least decently whether well whether that be Brook Lopez or Miles Turner and obviously Jared Allen is not that guy. Ironically in the beginning of his career he did actually occasionally take some threes for the Nets but that part of his game has just never developed in either scenario. I do think it would make sense for Cleveland to take a look at trading him. And there's some interested teams. The two that come to mind for me would be the Lakers which always seems to come up when it comes to big guys. Uh they've got an interesting offseason in themselves for themselves I should say. And I've already done a a full video on the Lakers offseason. They might get Hartinstein in free agency.

[00:15:19]They might try to get Jaylen Dur restricted free agency. Mitchell Robinson is interesting for them. But if none of those things happen, I think they'd be interested in giving up some kind of pick or protected pick for Jared Allen. Maybe a contract or two. That makes sense more so in the we're trying to tear it down situation for Cleveland.

[00:15:33]And then the other team would be Charlotte, a team that I think wants to make a step forward next season that has some draft capital. They would certainly be interested in trading for Jared Allen. Some contracts that would work for them as well. And that would really really improve their their defense and overall depth at the five spot. No disrespect to Musadiate, Ryan Caulkprinter, they've got some decent options at the five spot. Uh but Jared Allen would certainly be an upgrade and would really improve their defense, which I think is the biggest leap they could possibly take uh for next season in terms of their overall, you know, roster upgrades and stuff like that. So those are all the trade things. So overall, the only thing left to do now is to try and give some kind of prediction about what is going to happen to Cleveland's off seasonason. I think there is a 70% chance that they just run it back like exclusively like there's no other moves. There's no Giannis trade.

[00:16:20]Mitchell's there. Harden's there. I think it we're we're at that point where if you really think about it level-headedly and don't get too emotional about the conference finals loss, the coach is going to come back, Mitchell's going to come back, Harden's going to come back, and they're not going to trade Adam Moley, and they're going to look at this and say, "If we can just get Mitchell to resign, even if the Harden thing doesn't go well, that's like a one or two-year commitment. All of the stuff we're talking about right now, trading Mitchell, trading Moy, trading Allen, we can do all that a year from now as well. There's no reason once Mitchell signs the extension, there's no reason to rush into any of those things." I think there's about a 20% chance that Mitchell doesn't sign the extension and all of a sudden it's just chaos in Cleveland and they could trade away Mitchell, trade away Harden. They could still trade away Moy if they really wanted to trade away Allen.

[00:17:02]Everything's on the table at that point and about a 10% chance that the Mitchell for excuse me the Mitchell the Moley for Giannis thing actually happens. Just the more I looked at it, the more I like if I'm thinking about the the shams notification coming through that the Bucks have traded Jiannis DMPO Evan Mobley in a pick at the center of the deal just to me is just not enough. It just doesn't make enough sense for Milwaukee to actually go ahead and make that move. And so I think there's only like a 10% chance or so that happens.

[00:17:30]Many of you are probably wondering at this point, what about Kenny Aerson? I personally don't think he's going to get fired. Like unless they're just going to completely rebuild, um I don't think he's going to get fired. They've had two really good years with him. obviously really good in the regular season a year ago and they got to the conference finals this year and I understand that uh it's never been a crazier time to be a head coach of an NBA team. It's like Tibs and Michael Malone and all these guys getting fired like when they're still having really successful seasons.

[00:17:49]Um but I don't think that's on the table for Cleveland. So that's where I'm at right now with the Cavs off seasonason.

[00:17:53]Definitely one of the more interesting offseasons in the entire league this