This video explains that stock market movements are primarily driven by corporate earnings performance, with strong earnings often pushing stocks higher even when broader market conditions are mixed. The content demonstrates how defensive stocks like McDonald's can be attractive investment opportunities when they experience temporary price declines due to market rotation, while companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential like Mercado Libre and Toast may offer long-term upside despite short-term downtrends.
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Deep Dive
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And there you have it, guys. $700 on the Q's. What a what a day, man. What a day. All-time highs on the S&P and on the Q's today. And we talked about $700 literally like a couple weeks ago on the Q's because SPY hit 700. And I was like, hey, if the Q's hit 700 this year, that would be cool now, wouldn't it? And here we are, $700 and we're up 25% off the lows. Think about that. The Q's hit 5.55 just about 30 days ago and now we're up 25% to about $700. This is insane. And we have to break down a couple companies in this video. Three that already reported earnings and two that I'm watching here after the bell.
So guys, hit the like button, make sure to subscribe, join the Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates, my private Discord, all of that in real time is posted on Patreon link down below, pinned in the comments as well. And now, cheers. I appreciate you all for tuning in as always. Let's break this down. So, what a freaking day, guys. Alltime highs again um on the cues on SPY. And it's not all sunshine and rainbows today. Hey, look. The Dow's down a quarter%. The Russell's actually down 1%. Bitcoin's down 2%. So, we are selling off a bit here on the small caps, the Dow, Bitcoin. But the fact that oil keeps on tumbling. Brent is now under 100 a barrel. Uh we're down 2%, we're at 99. WTI is at 93 a barrel. This has really come down over the last couple of days down about 1 2%. that's helping the uh the market as well. The fact that we're seeing oil come down, things are, you know, they're not resolved in the Middle East, but we're, you know, we're getting closer to to to an agreement in my opinion. So, we're getting the signs and the uh the tech stocks are loving it, right? And on top of that, man, big tech earnings, MAG7 earnings were insane. Way better than expected. People are like, "Oh, why is the market going up so much?" uh you know should we be worried? I mean look earnings were way better than expected and at the end of the day markets are driven by earnings um you know in the grand scheme of things amongst other things but earnings are really the main driver. So if earnings were so good right it makes sense why we're seeing this. Um that's exactly what's going on.
the Q's. Yeah, I mean you you could argue we're due for a pullback, but man, it's it's a move that's based on fundamentals in my opinion. Again, earnings were through the roof and we were running into earnings and the fact that they came out so stellar um were pushing up even more. So, speaking of earnings, guys, let's break down a couple here that uh maybe aren't really influencing the move of uh the NASDAQ today too much, but they're still companies worth watching, and we have to break down their earnings. Starting off with Celsius, ticker CH, which is up six, yeah, 6 7% right now. Um, and it's still very much in a downtrend. I mean, this stock's been bludgeoned over the last 8 12 months. Uh, but it did have a lot of momentum back in 2024, 2023. You guys remember that? And it's been um downhill since for obvious reasons, I think. You know, their sales growth has slowed down. They were super popular.
Still are. I mean, look, I have a Celsius now and then. Um, it's really the only energy drink I drink anymore. I I drink them barely. I mean, like once every two months. Uh, but you know, they're pretty good. But the popularity has kind of cooled off a bit. That initial boom, the initial growth has slowed down. Um, and they're still trying to, you know, get that stock moving, guys. Maybe this is the start of that. We can see earnings per share beat adjusted, by the way. 41 versus the 30 cents expected on sales of $782 million roughly versus 766 expected. So double beat for core uh for Celsius on those core numbers. And let's see uh did they give us any guidance.
Not seeing any guidance. Uh but we can see this article says Celsius is winning the energy drink battle with Pepsi in its corner. And yeah, they are one of the top brands. Um and I think Pepsi um it looks like from its integration into Pepsi Inc.'s distribution network.
Okay. Okay. So, I got to look a little deeper into that. But, um, Celsius, guys, again, when it comes to energy drinks, it's up there, but there's a lot of freaking competition. Every day there's a new energy drink, which is why it's a it's a category that I tend to avoid. I mean, yeah, Monster is one of the best investments of all time. Uh, but that was at a very special time where energy drinks really weren't a thing. I mean, there were just a couple, if that. Uh and now there is it's a crowded market. It's not the same. Uh but Celsius still could have a lot more upside here, but we have to just get some more momentum either in their sales, in their numbers, uh you know, something here, a new product, a new uh whatever it is. I mean, whatever they have to do, they have to do it, right, guys? So, that doesn't sound too great on my end. But, man, my opinion is it's just a crowded uh crowded um business here. And it's it's kind of died down a little bit, the momentum. Uh that's what it comes down to. And if you're betting on this going back to 50, 60, 70, 80 a share, you're betting on growth picking back up. Um and a lot of other different factors here. So, Celsius, CH, keep your eyes on it. Data Dog also reported earnings. Um, let's pull up Data Dog, ticker DD OG. This one's ripping 30%. I mean, what do you know? This stock was down from $200 to 98 a share. It pretty much cut in half, more than that. And now we're back to 185 on this earnings.
Let's see what happened here, guys.
These earnings must have been uh phenomenal, right? Too much pessimism was priced into the stock clearly. Um, adjusted EPS came in at 50 or excuse me, 60 cents. That beat the 51 cents expected on sales of over a billion dollars versus the 961 million expected.
So much better than expected here when it comes to revenue and EPS. And it looks like their fullear year 26 adjusted EPS guidance, they raised it from 208 to 216. Uh that was the original range to now 236 to 244, guys.
Uh versus the $2.17 expected. So very strong numbers. Uh they raised their fullear 26 sales guidance from 4.06 to 4.1 originally now to 4.3 to 4.34 billion versus the 4.11 billion. So yeah, I mean, look, when a stock's down this much, it's it's pretty obvious when a stock's down this much, there's a lot of pessimism priced in, and they just said they just said, "No, we're doing well. Guidance, we're actually raising it. EPS, we're beating the estimates by a mile. We're reporting a billion dollars of revenue versus that 960 expectation." So, it's pretty obvious it was beaten up too much.
Earnings were a grand slam. amazing guidance and here we are. We're breaking out. Shout out to everybody that was uh you know in this stock before the print.
Congrats to you guys. You're making a lot of money here, but if I'm not in it, I'm not FOMOing into it, if that makes any sense. Um I I would not buy this breakout. I think it's going to potentially pull back. Um so be careful.
Trade at your own risk, guys. And we got earnings out of good old Mickey D's. Ah, doesn't everybody like uh the the nostalgia the nostalgia associated with McDonald's? I know. I love it, man. And look, the stock's been beaten up uh 60 bucks a share down. And the reason is, you might be like, stocks, why is this happening? Well, we're down 17% because we've seen a rotation out of these defensive safe names back into the Q's, the tech stocks. Where do you think all this money went that went out of uh McDonald's? It went into stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Micron, SanDisk, right? All that money came out of the uh the McDonald's of the worlds and boom did exactly what I thought they would do uh two, three months ago, right? We talked about this. We said there's no reason McDonald's should be trading at this valuation. And honestly, McDonald's wasn't even that high compared to some other ones. But we had CocaCola, Pepsi, Proctor and Gamble, you know, all these defensive stocks trading at nutty valuations. And we predicted this that we were going to get a crazy rotation out of those back into the cues. And we got it. We got it. McDonald's did not get the uh you know, did not get the uh the they got the the short end of the stick. That's not the right saying. Uh McDonald's, let's just say um they they got k they got hit pretty uh pretty badly, right? Considering they were consolidating at 300, trading in the mid300s for a little bit. They got nailed, man. 20%. And look, McDonald's is one of those stocks that will get bought up. This dip will get bought up.
It's one of those names. Um, in fact, I'm even considering um, in my longer term, you know, kind of my set it and forget it portfolio, maybe adding a little McDonald's. It's a great compounder, great dividend. They're going nowhere. Uh, but yeah, man, this thing got hit and and maybe I'm going to let it come down a little more. We'll see here, guys. I think they reported pretty good numbers um, despite the drop here. Yeah, EPS adjusted 283 versus $2.74 expected on sales of 6.51 billion versus 6.46. So, double beat out of McDonald's. Um, comparable sales, global comparable sales up 3.8%. Global systemwide sales up 11%. Uh, US comp sales up 3.9%.
Uh, let's see. International developmental licensed markets up 3.4%.
anything on guidance, guidance, guidance. Not seeing it. But yeah, McDonald's, guys, it's one of those stocks that if it dips 20, 25%.
It's one of those where you you got to consider it. Just add to it if you own it. You know, I've said this before, my core stocks, guys, McDonald's isn't one of them, but I treat them as as if, okay, each time they drop 20, 30%, as long as the fundamentals are still intact, I'm adding. Simple as that. you know, if Google drops 30%, 20%, if Nvidia drops, if Amazon drops, I'm adding to it, right? And McDonald's, I know, is a is a core holding for a lot of people out there. I think it's a good opportunity here. Quite frankly, out of all those defensive stocks, I think this could be a good um a good buy. You want to look at these names when you know after the rotation when they're beaten up when they're down and out. That's when you want to get in. You know like just two, three months ago when Nvidia was at 160, AMD was at, you know, God knows where it was at a lot lower. All these tech stocks were down. That was the time to get in. Now we're seeing those go up. McDonald's is coming down.
Not saying that the tech stocks are going to come down. Uh McDonald's could go up with the Q's up as well. Uh, but I think it opened up a great opportunity here and I'm looking to potentially nibble a little bit, especially if it gets down in the 250s, guys. I think I bought some I know I did, actually. I bought McDonald's last time it got down to the low mid 200s. I think it was right in here. Um, it got down to 250 and I literally bought it at the perfect time. I mean, this stock went right back to 300 a month or two later and couple months later and I locked in profit. So, I'm I'm I'm looking at I'm looking at something similar here. If McDonald's gets down anywhere in this ballpark, I'm adding. Simple as that. I'm getting back in. Uh but for now, I'm keeping an eye on it. And I have two stocks that I already own that are about to report earnings after the bell here, guys.
Let's take a look at these. And by the way, hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't done so already. Man, I think 50% of you watch the content on YouTube and you're not subscribing. And on Facebook, we're super close to, I think, 80,000 followers. So, make sure to subscribe, hit that follow button. I appreciate you guys as always. So, Marcado Libre, this one's been down for months now, downtrending, but when in doubt, zoom out. This stock still looks great on the three-year chart and of course on the MAX chart as well. This looks phenomenal, right? So, Marcato Libre chartwise looks like a buy the dip easily in my opinion. and the fundamentals back it up. Analysts have them doing on average revenue of $ 8.32 billion versus 5.93 billion from last year, right? They're expecting growth of 40% on the top line. I'm excited to see their numbers after the bell today, guys, on EPS of $8.20. So EPS is coming down a bit year-over-year. Um that's projected um again at 820 versus 974 from last year. So, keep that in mind.
But the fact that uh they're growing 40% topline, guys, that's remarkable. And they're a leading player when it comes to e-commerce, fintech down in Latin America. And there's a crazy stat.
They've grown their revenue, I think 30% or more for 30 quarters or something like that. Uh, which is insane. And again, the stock's downtrending. I've been buying the weakness. I'm down a little bit on the stock. I think I'm down a couple percentage points, three, four, five%, nothing much. And I'm I'm convinced we're going to be a lot higher longer term, or else I wouldn't be in this stock. Uh, but I think also once we take out this resistance at about 1,900, which look, we've been struggling for the last couple of weeks. That was support back in November all throughout uh the end of February. Once we take that out though, we're going to be on our way back to $2,000 plus. And I don't think it's going to be looking back, guys. So, I'm excited for Marcato, Libre, and Toast. Toast is another one which is up a good chunk today, actually. Uh we're up around 4 and a half, 5% heading into earnings. And we can see here, this is also uh this stock's also been downtrending with no real breakout in sight yet. Uh but this got caught up in the whole software AI selloff and a lot of people got you know very very scared thinking AI is gonna you know take over toast somebody's going to vibe code a product for restaurants and toast is in trouble right and I couldn't disagree more um you know their restaurant management system it's deeply integrated in a lot of restaurants they're growing like crazy and the the the product itself itself is phenomenal and they have a great moat. Think about think about this guys. Restaurants that use systems once they use a a great system which Toast is topofthe line phenomenal product. It's a sticky business. They're not going to just oh toss the entire system that the entire restaurant from the management to the to the you know the the cooks to everybody up and down to the uh to the the bus boy right to the the servers.
Everybody knows this this uh software.
They're not just going to get rid of that like that for an app that or for a software that somebody vibe coded recently or whatever it may be. So, I think Toast is one of those that it's a sticky product, strong moat. It's topofthe line uh when it comes to what they do in the restaurant in the restaurant business. And what I love about them is their product is only for restaurants, right? They're not in this industry, that industry. They're focused solely on restaurant management systems and they're crushing it. And I love the way their CEO and the management team navigated the uh the last earnings call when they were asked about AI. Um they're using AI to actually build the business or grow on top of it. They have um you know an AI, I forget the AI's name now, but there's an AI within their restaurant management systems and that's being utilized by you know people running the restaurants to actually help them, right? and they're using AI to grow the business. Not they're not being eaten by AI, at least in my opinion, um, as of right now, you know. So, I love I love it, guys. The they they they managed the the call very well because at that time the uh the AI question uh the fear was a lot higher than now and the stock went up a good chunk after that earnings report and I think there's a chance it does that now as well. Um, so I'm excited about Toast. EPS is projected at 27 cents versus 20 cents from last year on revenue of 1.63 billion versus 1.34 billion. Um, up 22% from last year. So Toast, guys, it's down. It's down a lot. Fundamentals are still strong. The company's growing. Um, founder le, great management team. And when in doubt, zoom out. The chart looks good, does it not? I mean, that's that's my opinion. We're down 20 bucks a share from all-time highs, about 40%. And I think this could springboard higher in due time. Um or or it might not.
Nothing's guaranteed. This could go to zero for all we know, guys. But I don't think so. I don't think so. Um so with that being said, let me know your thoughts in the comments and check out the Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates. See week in week out what stocks I'm buying, all my moves, right? All of that's on Patreon link down below. And there's a private Discord if you're interested through the Patreon down below in the comments or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon.
And with that being said, cheers. I'll see you all in the next video.
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