Important Market Concepts Within

Ajouté : 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, I'm charting man Dan with the chart guys. Consolidation to start the week. Bulls bought the dip and then we ended the week with a little bit of concerns over reescalation with Iran, but there's significant volatility in quantum stocks, space stocks watching for rotation and other major sectors.

[00:00:15]Let's check in on the market. Learn how to trade stocks, crypto, and hype sectors with a global chat room led by professional traders, as well as daily live streams at chartguys.com.

[00:00:26]All right, so S&P 500 and NASDAQ testing all-time highs, but a little bit of profit taking on Friday as concern started to grow of escalation again. Uh people pointing to Trump not going to the son's wedding, cancelling plans, gabbard uh resigning as to potential indications that escalation with Iran's going to come back again. And my approach is the market has told us it doesn't care. That said, it could be the reason we see normal, healthy weekly consolidation, which would just have us looking to weekly EMA 12. We talked about that last week's video, looking for the potential of weekly consolidation to begin. Technically, it started by a fraction of a percent, but it's a bull flag at this point, and the burden is on bears to prove to us it's not a bull flag. So bulls are so comfortable that it's looking like worst case if there's escalation and the market reacts bearish to it negatively, we're just going to look for the weekly higher low eventually. And again, that EMA 12 is going to be our target. We'll be watching uh previous resistance to try and act as support. But in this moment, we're still in meltup mode. And the the question that we had after the first couple of days of pullback and you could see this little higher low here on the NASDAQ pretty much or this is the S&P 500 pretty much a double bottom.

[00:01:47]The question was okay we pulled back a bit but can the bears the next check mark the bears need confirm the first daily downtrend that we've seen since the meltup bottom and they have been unable to do so at this point. We would need to see the rejection here followed through break the low of Friday and then break the low of the week. And again, if that happens, we zoom out and we watch weekly EMA 12. If that doesn't happen, we're going to new alltime highs. So, it's also a potential cup and handle setup with where we stand right now. Uh again, depending on let's just go 12-hour.

[00:02:25]So, if we top here and we pull back and set a quick 12-h hour high or low, that's a cup and handle. Uh, again, it's just burden on bears. Bears have to prove something to us, and they just haven't at this point. A couple of days of pullback. Uh, so those are the things that I'm going to be watching the first few days of next week. Question one, can we break the all-time high? Question two, is a rejection a bull flag for a potential cup and handle? And again, now we have our new line in the sand. if you're walking up stops on long swings or if you're looking for a level where okay, maybe it's time to protect. That's it. We've got the the line in the sand now for the shorter term uh daily level. NASDAQ, same thing.

[00:03:08]So, my mindset heading into Friday uh is again whenever whenever bulls have full control or bears have full control, I want to know how things could shift. It doesn't mean that I'm positioning or making trades based off of it. It's an attempt to just not be surprised. It's an attempt to see something coming. And so heading into Friday, okay, we're testing all-time highs. If we're going to reject, this is how it would happen.

[00:03:35]I often do that with my mindset. So Friday morning, I said I just look at the setup and say, "Okay, if the bears can defend all-time highs, what would it look like?" So, if they're going to defend all-time highs, it would likely be this hourly rising wedge. And so, the bulls controlled the morning. We grinded, you know, higher high, no follow through, and then the profit taking into the afternoon with the fundamental reasons I mentioned, uh, had us heading towards the support. So, as we know, wedges often turn into head and shoulders or inverse head and shoulders.

[00:04:07]And so if this were to confirm whether you know we start with a bear break if anything happens over the long weekend.

[00:04:14]Happy Memorial Day by the way. Thanks for any of those who have served. Uh or if bulls show up, you know, could it be a a head and shoulders that confirms?

[00:04:25]Either way, again, if that happens, I then zoom out to the 12 hour if the bears prove something there. But the profit taking into the end of Friday not necessarily surprising just because was watching uh that resistance level and and knowing that if bears are going to play defense this is what it would look like. So the bull morning wasn't necessarily you know we don't get lulled into a sense of complacency by just saying oh well bulls controlled the morning so everything's all fine. Uh but that's my approach right now. Uh definitely still bullish. I did I have I did hedge where did I hedge? I made a couple hedge attempts. Uh I believe I took one here. And the stop for that's going to be all-time high. And I took another one at some point here that stopped out with a little bit of red. So again, just positioning. If we're going to see weekly consolidation, I want to be a little bit protected. And then the bulls continue to tell us, nope, we still got control. So my hedge sizes down a little bit. Uh but that's where I stand. So now we're going to check in on a bunch of individual sectors, individual names.

[00:05:29]Semiconductor bulls still strong. We hit a new all-time high Friday. Again, no follow-through. My most likely scenario, what what I determined as most likely was a sideways range. I've been watching for this sideways range to try and develop because as we know what often happens is, and we'll look at an example of this with space names is when the lead bull tops out and we pull back and find a support level. During that pullback, oftentimes everything will pull back with it. And then once it finds that support, that's when the rotation takes place. And then that lead bull trades sideways and the names that are getting rotation outperform. That's a that's classic. I learned it in 2017 crypto and I've been applying it to everything, you know, euphoria sectors, whatever. Let's just let's just look at space right now real quick as an example. So RKLB is the lead bull has been on a great blue sky run. Very correlated to the semiconductors. You know, look at the the pullback into the bounce, the upper wick. It's very correlated. So if you're trading RKLB, you're definitely watching that semiconductor correlation. But we hit the all-time high. We pull back. Did we get to the hourly back burner? I assume so. Perfect.

[00:06:45]hourly back burner marks the daily higher low and a big 15 20% bounce from there right near daily EMA 12. So that's all great and then we trade sideways for a bit and you know we broke resistance but as far as I'm concerned double top still sideways at the moment. Look at peers as ESTS. So this is the pullback day where we pulled back and the hourly back burner happened on RKLB. AS pulls back with it. But once that low is hit, that's when the outperformance begins. And the move up from here on as 37%.

[00:07:26]And the RKLB move up definitely impressive but a little bit less 21%. So significantly more gains. ASDS had been out underperforming. So if we go to AS divided by RKLB the outperformance has been taking place for a week plus after underperforming significantly for weeks prior. So burn that into your brain because that often happens. lead bull pulls back. When it pulls back, everything pulls back with it. It develops a sideways range. That that sideways range is important because if it keeps pulling back, it's going to keep weighing on the the peers. But if it's sideways, it's almost a green light for bulls. Okay, we don't got to worry about much. You know, it's trading rangebound. No big deal. And then that uh takes place, that rotation. So as we're going to look for a daily higher low next consolidation we'll see if bulls are able to put in uh you know the monthly continuation. It's just a monthly EMA 12 rider. We've been riding it for years at this point. We held it again. Monthly higher low set and trying to head back up towards that all-time high. LR another one in breakout mode now. Daily bull flag inside bar base of support established at 31.

[00:08:42]Inside bar bull break and now testing that high. Uh so space names still performing well and again just wanted to to drive home that concept. So my most likely scenario for SMH was looking for the sideways range and if semis form a sideways range do we get the rotation elsewhere whether it's financials, healthcare, whatever. Uh but everything has stayed strong and bulls are fine with that as far as broader market bulls. Um, and it's the kind of thing where I've been looking for rotation in XLF and I've been making money doing that, but the answer was, well, it would have been better off, you know, still sticking with semiconductors long uh because the bounce from those lows was significant. So, it's just it's it's almost like where can I make the most money uh in the current environment? And when you're wrong, it's okay because you're still making money. is just less than what you know you I I chose the wrong sector to focus on uh this past week and I'm okay with that. So my thesis hasn't been invalidated. But one thing that I'm learning going from day trading to swing trading more is uh patience. So I'm used to being told that I'm wrong as a day trader within five minutes to two hours max. I have developed a thesis. I develop a trade and I'm told if I'm right or wrong pretty quickly and looking for this financial sector rotation. I have not gotten an answer if I'm right or wrong yet and it's been a couple of weeks and so it's it's been pretty uh difficult.

[00:10:18]Look at this. So we got the 4hour falling wedge we were watching for the weekly higher low that broke bull. So so that thesis was correct. The incorrect part of the thesis was that it would be better to be long financials than semiconductors after the period of consolidation. So financials from those lows, you know, not not keeping up, but the weekly chart is still trying to set up the weekly trend change and it could still play out. But uh it's been brutal just in the sense that the the back and forth jerking around where it has been red, green, red, green, red, green, red, green. That's what and I've just been sizing up a little bit, sizing down a little bit and positioning and you know always keeping a core but trying to maneuver and you know I was trading GS a bit which is a lead bull the weekly cup and handle is confirming Uh, and same thing, you know, I'm I'm sizing into GS and then I size down a little bit when I realize, wait a second, GS's business model is much more tied to semiconductors because of, you know, it's got a very different business model than Bank of America and JP Morgan and uh, it's its market making and it's, you know, deals with hedge funds and all that. So, I learned that GS is almost like a hybrid financial and semiconductor. the way that it's trading correlated to those two sectors. Um, but again, just a lot of tugof-war back and forth where we, you know, we broke a thousand. It's bulls are following through, but uh, it just hasn't been the the size up aggressive ghost signal that I've been looking for. So, still going to be watching for it. At this point, the financial sector bulls need to confirm a daily uptrend still because that falling wedge, we hit that fresh low. And you know, from a day trading perspective, I've been very often buying the financial sector morning dip, and that's been going very well for day trading. It just hasn't transitioned into swing trading follow-through because of all that back and forth. So, you know, my week this past week looked like buying FAS, the leveraged bull, you know, selling partial, leaving partial in case the bulls can prove something and then locking it in and taking the, you know, day trade size win when uh we didn't get, you know, the signs I was looking for to have a confident swing position. So, from here, the bulls will we topped out right at this resistance. If we consolidate, we'll have to set a daily higher low and higher high. if we are going to confirm the weekly uptrend, the daily uptrend, we'll need to confirm as well to have confidence there. And so, I'm still going to be watching it. Uh because again, like I said, my thesis hasn't been invalidated yet. It's just told me that it's too early. And so, we'll see if SMH breaks a low Friday. It will be the sideways rangebound uh price action developing and we'll we'll check it out from there. The the healthc care sector has also seen diff uh some solid rotation. We were watching the weekly bare flag with no follow-through. This is the most bullish week that the f the healthc care sector has seen in the last probably 3 months, two and a half months. So, it's significant. Uh, and we're testing a very key resistance level right now. We broke it, but only by some pennies. And, you know, we've got space for we got a daily uptrend as our guide. We're watching this resistance zone. And if we reject, it'll be a potential inverse head and shoulders type of setup. But uh we're looking for a monthly higher low to try and be established here on healthcare. And we know healthcare has been significantly underperforming but trying to shift that a little bit. And so you can be keeping an eye on things like you know for me I'm watching these names XLV divided by pretty much semiconductors and it's trying to shift things but still a long way to go. XLV divided by QQQ.

[00:14:09]So trying to shift things, trying to see relative strength and it has for two weeks. You know, XLV has been stronger than the NASDAQ for the last two weeks.

[00:14:16]It's just not significant. So that's my approach to the market and definitely um I don't know for I the way that I do things is I focus on the ETF and then I pick generally one name. So it's been XLF and GS and it's been XLV and MRK. I I just stumbled upon MRK. I forget how probably Twitter again. Twitter is a useful tool, but you've got to uh curate your feed often to keep it a useful tool because it's going to do everything it can to rot your brain. It's just constant pre brain brought prevention to keep it a useful tool. And on that note, I just remembered this Thursday I'm going to be doing a webinar talking a bit about uh some life changes and things upcoming for me, some future plans, and just a laid-back Q&A style webinar at 5:00 p. Eastern. So, swing on by and let's have a beer and hang out.

[00:15:13]Um, but social media Rain Bro will be part of that conversation. And, uh, so I found it on Twitter and was like, I like this name. Why? This is a monthly cup and handle. I've just been finding so many cup and handles in this bullish market environment in 2026. And so, I just keep hunting them uh because there's been good ones on four hours, daily time frames, weekly time frames, and this is one of the monthly. This is an all-time high.

[00:15:37]a rejection, a monthly bull flag, and now we're back up testing all-time highs. And so my thesis and mindset was if the healthcare sector is going to see rotation, this is a name that I want to focus on to see that. And so ideally, you get MRK divided by XLV showing relative strength, which it had a huge week. And you want healthcare showing the relative strength. So MRK has tons of space for a daily high or low. I don't love the MRK and GS liquidity.

[00:16:07]Again, shift from day trading to swing trading. I don't day trade these names.

[00:16:11]They are swing trading perspective, smaller position size because my day trading uh style with my market orders and my partial positioning, sell a third, reload. Uh it's not ideal for names that have wider bid ask spread, lower liquidity, maybe lower volume. But MRK is going to be testing this resistance zone. And I would love, you know, if I want to size up or add on. I want to see a rejection and a bull flag.

[00:16:44]G give me a daily cup and handle inside a monthly cup and handle. You'll often see uh baby patterns within mama patterns. And so uh keeping an eye on MRK.

[00:16:57]I should probably figure out what MRK does. I don't really fully know.

[00:17:03]Uh, no, I found it because of Ebola, right? The vaccines. That's it. Yeah.

[00:17:08]So, that was beneficial. Okay. I take I take credit for that. That was me. Uh, just saying, "Oh, you know, Ebola is going to be in the headlines now." And so, I checked in on AP Lake. I got my list in front of me. MRNA and MRK. Those are the four that I focused on. And I liked MRK the best.

[00:17:25]Okay.

[00:17:26]Other sectors, real quick, check in.

[00:17:28]XLB. I grabbed a little starter here for the potential of this weekly bull flag and stopped out of it when it was proven invalidated.

[00:17:37]That was a potential cup and handle mindset that failed. But now it's just an equilibrium. And so again, you know, focusing on the volatility in quantum and space. We'll talk about quantum in just a moment for day trading, short-term swing trading, and then bigger picture stuff. Uh looking at these uh slower uh bigger picture sectors. And so conveyor belt of trades, I'm focused on the volatile stuff in the short term, but coming on down the line, I can look ahead and see, well, XLB, IYT, these other sectors are going to have tightening ranges that break probably in June that will then become the opportunity. And so XLB tightening up, IYT, I like this weekly look. Not exactly a cup and handle because the right side is slightly higher than the left. But if weekly EMA2 keeps holding, we're heading to all-time highs. So, keeping an eye there. And again, just, you know, these are these are things that are way less volatile. And so, for me, if I got a bunch of cash sitting around, I'm okay with that. Uh, you know, park some cash into some less volatile things and and focus my day trading capital on the more volatile things. And so um you know a big move here on IYT is 15%.

[00:18:53]Quantum doing 25% in a day. So very different beasts with very different purposes. Almost like okay I don't want to have to watch these things every day in terms of if I'm putting my capital in them but these are the sectors I'm watching.

[00:19:09]Now on to quantum. So quantum as we've been known all second term of this administration Trump is signaling often good traits.

[00:19:22]Uh and it's partially because it's what he's having someone do with his money.

[00:19:28]But this is where it's been so important to put aside any political emotional bias that you have to be able to make money which is the purpose we are playing this game for. And so just like what happened with Rare Earth, just like what happened with INTC or PLTR or whatever else he's mentioned, uh this wasn't a direct mention. This was the administration giving capital to nine quantum companies and giving the green light, so to speak. And so these quantum names, we know they had their monster run. We know they had their monster pullback. And now the higher low is set.

[00:20:05]This was a monthly stair step up on RGTI, a monthly stair step down. The bull break happened at 18 and we're following through from that with a 50% plus move at this point. And I'm anticipating lower highs. Uh, you know, we got to be cautious. The rare earth names ran hard on their news, but then retraced significantly. Uh, just let's just use MP as an example.

[00:20:29]You know, the bull run on the back of the news and the catalyst and the headlines. That's great. Hundreds of percent for sure, but then once we top out, we did get back 55%. And as we keep saying, as we know, if you're going to run hundreds of percent in a short amount of time, eventually you will pull back 40 to 50%. It's going to happen.

[00:20:49]So, you just keep that in the back of your mind to ensure that you're sticking to stop losses because the last thing you want to do is pull a stop-loss. Now, you're a bag holder. And then you justify in your head and you go on and and you go to the chat rooms and the Twitter that you want to find the other bullish people to make you feel good and say, "Okay, well the government's investing in it, so it's got to be good for the long term. So if I just keep holding and don't take this loss, I'll be okay eventually." No, don't do that.

[00:21:14]Stick to your stop losses. These are extremely volatile names that will top out and pull back significantly eventually, but not yet. So what we've been seeing is Q is the sector leader.

[00:21:23]was not mentioned because ONQ is buying or merging. They don't know they bought SKYT which did receive funding already. So, uh it's not like the government passed up on OQ. Uh I have an O and NQ swing position from back when I've I've got I've trimmed it, but I've still got a decent bit from when I looked at the market bulls showing up in meltup mode and I said the market's probably going to go risk on now. So, I just grabbed some Oio andQ, some OKLO, some STV.

[00:21:52]Stopped at STV robots real quick. Stuck with the other couple. Stopped out of OKLO at this point after some nice gains. Still in OQ. And um I actually trimmed ONQ the day before the news because my mindset was a daily lower high is the most likely scenario.

[00:22:11]Uh, and you know, sitting through this pullback of 23% wasn't great. So, I'm going to trim a little bit. I sold 20% of what I had left at that point Wednesday afternoon.

[00:22:26]This is an important psychological aspect of markets. I can look at Thursday and kick myself and be down.

[00:22:34]Ah, if I kept that 20%, I'd have X more dollars. Or I can choose to view it as, oh, I have four times the money that I left on on the table by selling 20% of the position. I have four times that. So I can celebrate that my net worth is going up because of this rather than look at the downside of exiting 20%. Uh it is so important in this game of markets that you are consistently choosing. It's always a choice. This is life advice. This is not market advice.

[00:23:09]This is life advice. You choose to take the positive outlook on things and you will find that the positive stuff keeps happening to you. The more you do that, you're not as stressed out as other people. You're not as depressed as other people. Find the bright side. We have had a significant drought in North Carolina for the la for this year. I think it's like the the least amount of rain to start a year maybe on recorded history coming straight off the Helen insane rain year. Uh I can look at that and find all the negative reasons in my yard and in my garden as and it has been a little bit stressful. I had to do more work. I've had to water perennial trees, fruit trees that I normally don't have to and I'm lugging buckets from the creek and all that. Or I can say, "Wow, there's less slugs this year. My P's haven't had any slugs on them. There's always a bright side to look at.

[00:24:06]Tangent. Uh, OQ. So, IQ is the leader, but we've been seeing rotation. And generally, the the the smaller names, RGTI, QBTS, and other names mentioned, they're going to go up more and they're going to pull back more. They're just more they're like a a 2x leveraged version of NQ. Um, so anticipating that that's going to continue to be the case when this sector does top out in the short term. It's coming in a day or two and we're going to pull back towards hourly oversold and we're going to watch for hourly oversold to try and mark daily higher lows. But when that happens, those names will pull back more from their tops than IQ does. Uh, I'm watching for the possibility the the question for me is are we going to form monthly tightening ranges? Are we going to top out uh and tighten up or can IQ head back to all-time highs?

[00:24:55]Percentage-wise, we're way closer. Oo, and QQ needs 33 34% for all-time highs.

[00:25:02]RGTI needs 120%. QBTS needs 59%. So, it's all different from me. It's been INQ is a lead bull. QBTS generally has been stronger than RGTI.

[00:25:19]And again, I just look at these three because my brain can only fit so many tickers in my head. And uh the the this is QBTS divided by RGTI on the weekly.

[00:25:29]And how this weekly range breaks is going to be important because that's going to tell us who should we be focusing on the long side. And I generally want to find who's stronger and who's weaker. And then when there's a bullish setup, I've been doing this with memory names, MU and SNDK. We'll look at those in just a moment. Um, when it's a bull setup, I play the stronger one bullish. When it's a bare setup, I play the weaker one bearish. And there'll be days that mix it up, of course, mixed in there. But generally, uh, that that's the ideal way to approach things. So, I want to know who's team bull, who's team bare, and RTI has been outperforming QBTS on this news. But how this weekly range breaks is going to be very informative for that.

[00:26:12]So, I'm expecting temporary tops soon.

[00:26:15]We're still hourly EMA 12 riders. The volatility has been great. Uh the the one regret that I have, slight regret, is not swinging a position on Thursday night. And the reason was I was away from the computer in the afternoon. I had a I was out in the garden and then I had a uh eye appointment in the last hour of trading. But this is one to to when you have a huge volume day and you look at RGTI and it traded we're trading billions of dollars. That's big. So I mean your average volume is 28 million and then you trade in a day five times that average volume. You generally won't do that without a headline catalyst.

[00:27:00]So the V when you have monster volume and when you close at the high of the day, the probabilities that you're going to gap up, as long as the broader market's fine, which it was, the probabilities that you're going to gap up are pretty high, 80%.

[00:27:15]And so the regret I have is that, you know, I wasn't watching the end of the day close to grab a position to to because why that happens is big money using their big volume is getting their position and then it requires little volume to run the price up in extended hours when liquidity significantly diminishes. So again, if I buy $50 million of RGTI during Wednesday's regular hours trading and I keep you know, $5 million to then buy it, knowingly buy higher. I will knowingly buy at a higher price.

[00:27:52]But if I can use that five million to push up an illquid price to the benefit of my 50 million, I don't care about paying a higher price knowingly and waiting for extended hours to use this capital. I could use it during regular hours where I will get a better price, but I'd rather buy higher and push the price up of my already established position. That happens all the time. You know, I learned that in Canadian Cannabis 2018. The the the play was load up into the high of the day close, take the profit into the gap up open, and then reload it to fiveminute oversold.

[00:28:26]And we did that again and again and again. It was an ATM machine. And other sectors do this all the time when they're in euphoria. So, just to summarize real quick, monster volume generally won't happen without a news catalyst. So, you got those two things.

[00:28:41]You close at the high of the day, a trending day. You close at the high after hours. Oftentimes you get an initial dip. Let's see if that happened.

[00:28:50]The bell will ring. We will close. No, it didn't happen this time. And you oftentimes will get a five minute dip and then it rips. But uh anyways, that happened. And then you got a name like Fjet. Fjet recent IPO. Shout out Melissa finding this equilibrium to find a bottom. monster volume break in this equilibrium just perfection. And you close near the high, look at the volume.

[00:29:15]You close near the high of the day. I don't even know if there's a news catalyst or not, but you're putting up 10x your average volume. Little less than that, 8x average volume, close near the high of the day, bell rings, rip another 10%. Right after hours. So, happens very often. GME did it all the time.

[00:29:40]Okay. So, we're looking for a temporary top in quantum.

[00:29:45]And if that happens, we will look for a daily higher low. And there's tons of space. Or we can look for a 4hour higher. Yeah, if you want to be zoomed in, we're going to look for 4hour higher lows. And we're going to watch for 15minute oversold to try and mark 4 hour higher lows.

[00:30:01]Okay, this is a long video. There good points in this video.

[00:30:07]Let's go to commodities. Just thinking real quick. Anything else I want to cover?

[00:30:14]I don't think so. So, gold, there's one more concept. Okay. Um, so we talked about how silver was the lead bull and did everything that bulls wanted to see, but you got to watch big daddy gold. And silver broke out and looked over it shoulder and said, "Come on, gold, let's go." And we can say silver bulls are positioned really well if gold can follow. Gold didn't follow it. It didn't confirm the weekly uptrend and it rolled over. And then that's going to rain back in silver. Silver was ready to go. I forget what I said. You know, fat friends holding you back.

[00:30:49]Can't keep up on the hike. Whatever the analogy was that I used, I don't remember. But um that often happens as well. We're going to talk about that in energy. That just happened in energy.

[00:31:01]So, it's almost like, okay, we're looking good, but we need this final check mark. And silver bulls didn't get the check mark. So, now what we're watching on gold is I'm watching for a two-week equilibrium, a twoe higher low.

[00:31:13]I'm viewing this as a a high before bears showed up in a big way, a low lower high. And I am scouting a higher low compared to 4131.

[00:31:25]And so, for that, how would that shape up? If that's going to happen, what would it look like? Well, it would look like a daily falling wedge because we broke bare, but we haven't seen bare follow through yet. So, I'm going to be watching. Is this a daily falling wedge to shape up a two-eek higher low? And I'm going to get my answer. Well, only four trading days this coming week, maybe next week. If not, next week, next week. So, if we get a a a bull move, you know, I'll be watching this resistance.

[00:31:54]We It's entirely possible we reject, but just something to be keeping an eye on.

[00:31:57]I do have silver exposure, no gold exposure.

[00:32:02]But uh again, you know, if I'm only watching silver, I get faked out there like, "Oh man, it looked great. How did we just retrace that whole move?" When I'm watching gold with silver, it makes complete sense. I don't get blindsided by it. So silver is still holding weekly support.

[00:32:19]That's our support trench. The bulls want to defend. And we do have to be cautious of a potential head and shoulders. Let's go to the two-day time frame. condense it down and you know if we bounce and can't break the high and if gold is not a falling wedge and sees a solid leg down silver could be a two-day head and shoulders. So got to be aware of that. I'm not going to sit here and say that's my most likely scenario because it's not at this point. It's just again I I always want to you know if I'm watching a setup this is the bull path forward. This is the bare path forward. If the bulls are going to prove it, this is what it would look like.

[00:32:52]Gold falling wedge. If the bears are going to prove it, this is what it would look like. Silver head and shoulders.

[00:32:57]And then I just watch for information. I try and not, you know, I can develop a bias. Well, this is what I think is more likely to happen. But I have to stay open-minded and every single day look for the information. There's these are my two things. Here's my probability needle. And every day I'm getting information that's going to slightly move the needle one way or the other.

[00:33:15]And keeping the open mind is the most essential part because if you do not have that open mind and you're setting your ways, you ignore all the new information you're getting on a daily basis, which is silly.

[00:33:28]So, we'll see which we get.

[00:33:32]Uh, but just tightening up for now.

[00:33:33]Silver 12hour, no real information to end the week.

[00:33:38]Gold bulls got to do something here.

[00:33:40]Miners are more like gold. They're weaker.

[00:33:44]I don't really care about miners for me.

[00:33:46]I'm keeping it simple, just gold and silver.

[00:33:51]So, how does that relate to energy?

[00:33:54]So, energy XLE look great. XLE tightening range, we were watching this.

[00:33:59]Tightening range is the most likely scenario on both the energy sector and oil. The energy bulls, XLE bulls broke bull. They look great to start the week and then we pulled back. There's no major red flags in this pullback, but it's the same thing. XLE bulls break out. Great. Let's do this. They look over their shoulder and say, "Well, oil, come along. Let's do this. You haven't broken yet." The energy, the XLE bulls are positioned really well if oil follows along. Oil didn't follow along.

[00:34:31]Oil is still in the equilibrium that we've been watching for months and anticipated for months. And so you don't get surprised by the energy sector consolidation when you see oil fail resistance and resume equilibrium.

[00:34:45]And so oil is going to get volatile again whether it's headlines over this weekend or we tighten up for another week. But this equilibrium is going to break and give us the next bit of information. We know the burdens on bears to prove to us anything because we're riding weekly EMA 12 and we know that's fullbull control on the longer term time frames.

[00:35:09]So condense it to the two-day if you want to just smooth it out. Nah, let's stick daily. I don't like that. So this is just what we're looking at. We're looking for a higher low now compared to 8441 to keep tightening up. We're looking for an XLE daily higher low. I did grab some XLE on Friday just as a hedge mindset. Okay, we're looking for a daily higher low is most likely. We're holding EMA 12. It's a daily inside bar.

[00:35:32]If there's any weekend escalation, oil will likely go up. Energy will likely go up. I'm fine grabbing some XLE. And I'll exit if we weaken from here. Again, for me, hedge a hedge trade is very different than a trade trade. Uh that's it's smaller.

[00:35:53]there's less it's less defined in its rules because it's just meant to serve protection of other positions that are a tighter leash and a more clear game plan. Anyways, uh watch how oil breaks at equilibrium. We will be watching for a daily higher low. It's just a question of do we get another leg down back to 90 or upper 80s before it happens or do we set a daily higher low quickly.

[00:36:20]So that's it.

[00:36:22]That's what we're looking for next week.

[00:36:24]Quick summary. There's too much to summarize in this one, but just for the broader market perspective, can bears confirm a daily downtrend to prove something to us and have us look to weekly EMA 12? So far, the answer's been no. Uh, does SMH form a sideways range?

[00:36:38]We did break resistance, but it's a double top at this point. Memory, same thing. So memory, the most likely scenario for me is the daily lower high and then a daily higher low and then a break probably two weeks from now to give us the next piece of information.

[00:36:53]So uh my thesis is looking like it's going to be more correct in memory than in SMH. SMDK significant relative strength to MU on Thursday.

[00:37:05]Um, but bears have to prove a little bit more here to set the lower highs and have us form that sideways range. And then you can be watching for rotation elsewhere in memory. I'm not zoomed into small cap memory names that could potentially benefit from rotation, but again, that'd be something I'd be watching for if that is your forte. But broader market, bulls in full control.

[00:37:31]Uh, bears have to confirm the hourly rising wedge on the NASDAQ. They have to negate the potential cup and handle because that's going to be on the table depending on what the consolidation looks like, whether it's a 12-h hour bull flag or not.

[00:37:45]And just one day at a time, do we get rotation, continued rotation into XLV and MRK?

[00:37:52]Can XLF bulls prove it with a weekly trend change confirming?

[00:38:00]Do good things. See you Thursday, maybe.

[00:38:05]Little garden update.

[00:38:07]Been eating asparagus all spring. Going to let that go soon and stop eating it.

[00:38:14]Getting beds ready for more stuff.

[00:38:17]Onions with a bunch of volunteer toatillos, big sage.

[00:38:23]Getting that bed ready. This trellis is new. Going to climb cucumbers, some beans, and maybe some winter squash.

[00:38:34]Peas are popping.

[00:38:36]Been eating those a bunch the last few days.

[00:38:39]Potatoes are popping.

[00:38:44]This is what a potato flower looks like.

[00:38:53]What else?

[00:38:55]Greens.

[00:38:57]Charred lettuce. More potato.

[00:39:01]Garlic scapes have been ready. I've been harvesting those scapes. Milkweed and anise hissup flowers. Planted a bunch more milkweed in these beds over here from seeds last winter.

[00:39:17]So, those are just starting to sprout up.

[00:39:21]Just some random onions. Planted some melons today. Beets and carrots. More random onions.

[00:39:29]More milkweed.

[00:39:35]Honeysuckle.

[00:39:41]That's it for now.