Cardano (ADA) - A LONG-Term Weekly Perspective (2026 / 2027 Price Prediction)

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates and to our bonus content. So, let's start on the weekly. Today, I want to quickly take another look at the wave count and I want to tell you what's going on here. And yeah, let's start with what happened back pretty much ever since the coin was launched. So, I believe this move to the upside could have been some kind of ABC for a much bigger first wave. When we got this move to the downside, it looked like maybe some kind of 1 2 3 4 5, but in reality, this was probably still some kind of much bigger ABC. But the setup looks like a 1 2 3 4 5, but it doesn't really matter. So, after we got this first to the upside, we completed another 1 2 3 4 5 for an Awave. And what is this awave for? Well, it's for a much bigger second wave move down of the first wave. A second wave move down is usually an ABC structure. So, if this was the Awave, then this move to the upside was the Bwave, which makes sense considering the fact that the Awave to the upside of that Bwave was a 1 2 3 4 5. And that's very usual for an Awave. And then in the Bwave down, I believe we got to the 0.786 support level of the Awave. And this was an ABC. I believe I was making videos back in this area. After we did that, we started the C-wave. And the C-wave is always the most impulsive move. And it's a fivewave move up. And by the looks of it, this was a fivewave move up. And it was also very impulsive.

[00:01:35]During the Cwave to the upside, we got to the 0.618 resistance level of the Awave down right there. And that's where we got rejected many times. Even when we tried getting a move to the upside back in that area, we, you know, got rejected. And then we just went sideways for a couple of months.

[00:01:52]If this was the top of the Pwave, which is very likely, then after that we actually completed a fivewave move down.

[00:01:59]It was not the best looking fivewave moved down, but this was a 1 2 3 4 5 and that was the first wave move down. Then after that, the price went up into an ABC for the second wave. And what we've had ever since was a third wave to the downside. The third wave is always the most impulsive one. Even in the previous bare market during the third week to the downside of the Awave, we went down from like $121 to about 25 cents. So, let's quickly show you how much that is in terms of percentage, it was a an 80% drop. And in the first bare market, the third wave down, let's see how much it was. It was a 93% drop. So, you get the idea. It's always going to be the most impulsive move. And so far from the highs of the you know second wave right there we are at down about 86% which is a lot more than what we went down back in the third wave of the Awave but also remember that the Cwave needs to be more impulsive which you know explains why the third wave of this bare market has been so impulsive and yeah I believe that at some point we are going to start a much bigger fourth wave and the target for that if the low of the third wave is already in would be between 29.7 cents and 37 cent.

[00:03:10]But I think there is a chance that maybe we overextend the much bigger third or the downside to at least 13.1 cents or even 10.8 cents first before we try starting a much bigger move to the upside. The reason for that is very very simple. This current third wave to the downside looks very similar to what we did back in the previous bare market over there during the third wave. The reason is because well first of all during this sideways price action back in that area we were going sideways above the 0.382 support level of the one two setup that we started back in the previous bare market low right there.

[00:03:44]And after we went sideways for months and after we broke below that support zone that is what pretty much put us at the next support zone which was the 50% back in that area. And this was a very significant low. That's where we bottomed in the third wave. We even used the 0.382 support level as resistance back in that area. We got rejected and then we went down quite a lot. And also before this move to the downside happened, we even had a crossing market support band. So the reason why I believe this setup looks very similar is because so far well first of all we went sideways above the 50% support zone back in this area just like we did back then.

[00:04:21]And we got a cross on the bon market support band a few weeks before that just like back in that area. And after we broke below that big support zone, the price pretty much broke down just like back here. And I think that if we are indeed somewhere in this area, then the price might get a new lower low just because back then, as you can see, we got exactly to the 50% support zone and only after that we started the fourth wave. So I think the 618 might be tested and I think the bounce off of it might be pretty, let's just say, impulsive.

[00:04:54]The worst case scenario right now would be that ADA is just going to continue to go down and it's just going to keep putting in lower lows in the third wave until October and then Bitcoin is probably going to find a bottom in October and that's when we get a fourth wave move up when unfortunately just like we did back in that area. We're probably then going to get rejected because that's when Bitcoin is probably going to get a correction and that's when ADA forms a lower low in the fifth wave like it did back then. The actual bare market low for ADA during the previous bare market was around 6 months after Bitcoin bottomed. So this was the bare market low for Bitcoin back in December and we did go up in the short term but then we went down and this you know gave us a fifth wave and the reason for that is because the you know setup for the Awave down was not completed and the exact same thing could be said about the previous bare market as well. So here we pretty much got a new bare market low about 14 months after Bitcoin had already bottomed and the reason for that is because this one 2 3 4 5 was not yet completed but after we got that fifth wave we formed a one two and then you know we just had the alqu season.

[00:06:01]Even this bull market was pretty similar. We got that fifth wave down and then the price formed a one two. I think this one too was pretty much this one too. And then you see to the upside was pretty much this much bigger move. The reason for that is because this move to the upside and this move to the upside pretty much happened only after Bitcoin broke above its previous all-time highs.

[00:06:22]So back in this area, Bitcoin was, I believe, at almost its previous 2017 all-time highs. And after it got back above them, that's when the altcoins started going up again. That's when historically Bitcoin dominance goes down. And during this time, it was the exact same story. Bitcoin was above its previous alltime highs. it finally stayed above them and that's when Bitcoin dominance went down and that's when ADA went up like 4x. So I think this move was just this move but a bit smaller and what we got after that was just you know whatever we had back in this area. So if we are indeed you know at this point of the bare market right now or at that point right there we're going to probably overextend and then we're going to start the fourth wave and the best thing to do would be to complete the fourth wave by the end of maybe August or September. So then we can start a much bigger you know fifth wave later on getting lower low and break below the third wave low and that's going to be maybe some kind of wick like we got back in that area or back in the previous bare market or the first bare market whatever you want to call it and then that's going to be enough to also completely much bigger Cwave move down.

[00:07:27]Now even in a scenario like that you have to understand it does not mean that we're going to go to zero. It only means that ADA is only going to start going up probably after Bitcoin gets above its previous alltime highs and it's not going to form any kind of one two setup.

[00:07:41]But the best thing to do would be to form a one two setup like that. And then by the time Bitcoin gets to new alltime highs, ADA is still going to be down quite a lot at least from its previous highs or from the you know previous 2021 highs. I mean like I said back in this area right here we were still down like 85% from the previous highs even though Bitcoin was already at all time highs.

[00:08:00]And that's exactly what happened over here as well. The price was at like 34 cents and the previous alltime dam highs were at like $3 and Bitcoin was pretty much already at alltime highs.

[00:08:10]So my main scenario is that ADA is probably going to get outperformed by Bitcoin probably until like 2028. And after we break above the previous alltime highs of October of 25, that's when the altcoins are going to outperform Bitcoin. That's when Bitcoin dominance is going to start going down and that's when the altcoins are going to hopefully get a real alcoin season.

[00:08:31]And that's my strategy. That's why I'm not going to be buying any altcoins during the bare market. I'm going to be buying Bitcoin at bare market lows somewhere between $35,000 and $30,000.

[00:08:41]And I'm going to be buying in October.

[00:08:43]And then I'm going to be DCAing every single month until we get to new alltime highs. Then once we get to new alltime highs, I'm going to be switching my profits with altcoins. And I'm hopefully going to make another three or 4x on the alcoins on top of the three or 4x that I'm going to make, you know, on Bitcoin only. So that's going to be like a 12x in total at the bare minimum. I used the exact strategy in the previous bare market and I, you know, made a lot of money with it. So I think that, you know, I'm going to probably use it again just because it worked. But I would suggest in, you know, doing your own research and not just copying what I did because maybe it's not going to play out like that.

[00:09:18]And maybe we're gonna, you know, get a much worse cycle than what we got in the previous cycle, which in my opinion is very unlikely, but you never know. This is crypto, is very risky. Having a diversified portfolio is probably a lot better than just putting all of your eggs into, you know, one basket only because if one coin decides to die, you're not going to lose all of your money. But yeah, that's my strategy. And then after we get to the alltime highs on the Bitcoin chart, ADA might even get above the previous 2021 alltime highs, but only if Bitcoin dominance actually breaks down and if it just, you know, doesn't stay at cycle highs forever. So, we're only going to get a move to alltime highs. If Bitcoin dominance does something like this. That's pretty much it for this video. I hope you enjoyed.

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