Everyone Thinks Bitcoin Will Crash… But They’re Missing This

[00:00:01]For quite a while we were telling you that we were looking to short Bitcoin at the $67,500 The plan is playing out exactly as we expected.

[00:00:17]We are not chasing this price move upward. We're looking for one final liquidity sweep up into the fair value gap.

[00:00:28]And then one final flush that convinces everyone that Bitcoin is dead.

[00:00:35]And that's where I believe that the real opportunity will arrive. Today, I'm going to show you exactly why we're looking to actually sell up at the $67,500 level, why Washington is dragging its feet, while Russia is actually pressing on the gas, and why the biggest Bitcoin opportunity and buying zone is directly ahead and actually below us. So, welcome back crypto crew.

[00:01:08]It is your boy Tom here. If you like what you see, make sure you give us a like. Make sure you hit subscribe, and make sure you tell your friends about us. And make sure you come on over to X and follow us on X, where we talk about Bitcoin crypto all day, every day.

[00:01:25]Because we're crypto maniacs. And the information that we give you is like an adrenaline shot with steroids. And you always leave with a frothy triple shot cappuccino. All right, hey, if you're new here, I spent 30 plus years on Wall Street trading floors, international banks, Forex trader. Today, I trade my own capital. I work with Merlin's Trading Group. We show you every position live, entry, stop losses, profit targets, winners and losers. Our goal is simple. Show you exactly how we are positioning before the market moves, not after, not playing with baloney demo accounts, playing with real money.

[00:02:05]So, if you want to trade alongside of us, make sure you join our free Telegram trading community. The link is in the description of every one of our videos.

[00:02:16]Also, while you're there, you might want to grab an account at BTCC, the broker of our choice. Low fees, fast execution. Everything you could want a broker. And here is the order, open order, sell 67,000 uh dollars. Look to purchase back at 553.

[00:02:38]All right, before we get into the charts, we talked about this yesterday.

[00:02:42]Pretty important, that's why you got to follow us on X, like we don't just post nonsense and memes. We really talk about like what's going on in the market. So, Cynthia Loomis recently warned that if the Clarity Act fails, the crypto industry could remain trapped in a regulatory quagmire for the years to come. Now, at the same time, good [clears throat] old pretty Senator Elizabeth Warren, that hot chick in Congress, has demanded that President Trump disclose every dollar of crypto-related earnings before the July 30 23rd debate. Politics is once again becoming major driver for digital assets.

[00:03:23]Markets hate uncertainty.

[00:03:25]Institutionals hate uncertainty even more. The sooner the rules arrive, the easier it becomes for large pools of capital to start to participate and maybe put a fire under this marketplace. That's why this vote matters far beyond this week's headlines.

[00:03:43]>> [snorts] >> And as we are looking at Clarity Act, kind of like in Russia, uh as the United States continues to bog itself down with regulation and political hits.

[00:03:56]Uh Russia lawmakers are advancing a legal framework for digital assets, while the US countries negotiate legislation that's been working its way through Congress for years.

[00:04:07]So, whether you agree with Russia's approach or not isn't the point. The point is speed. Countries around the world are building digital asset infrastructure.

[00:04:16]The race to become a leader in blockchain finance is not slowing down.

[00:04:22]Yet, our Congress seems to be just dragging its feet. If the United States wants to remain competitive, regulatory clarity will eventually become essential. All right, let's get into the trade plan, all right? I showed you this chart. We're going to show it to you again. This was one that we posted weeks ago, and here's our, you know, personal trading plan, or our trading plan. It's not really my personal plan. It's our group. We're looking to sell up into this fair value gap, where we're thinking that there's going to be a lot of people that are going to be trying to play the breakout. When I get into the 4-hour charts, we'll be talking about exactly where the main short-term resistance sits. But, if you don't have any patience, it's it's at 68,000. But, anyway, so right now, we're not buying strength into 67,000.

[00:05:09]We're looking to sell into it. Here's exactly how we're going to approach it.

[00:05:13]We already have uh the standing order on BTCC, the broker of our choice.

[00:05:18]Right now, once we watch it move into that area, we're going to whack it. Yes, we are. We're going to put a stop uh tight stop on it right around 70,000.

[00:05:26]>> [snorts] >> If it does not get up into this region, we will do nothing. We're going to wait.

[00:05:31]Now, if price begins rejecting, right?

[00:05:34]If we get into this fair value gap, we're going to look for some quick rejections, okay? And that's where we our trade will be executed, and we actually will be looking for that final liquidity sweep sweep lower, A move to around 55,000, potentially 53, on an extreme 48,000, but that's our preferred accumulation zone. We've talked about this many times before. Actually, let me show you the the accumulation zone right here. Right in this area is where we're seeing accumulation down to 53. Now, somebody asked on the video like, "Why don't you guys put straight lines? Why are you curving them?" Because you got to remember that we're trading [clears throat] zones. So, a trend line is important for short-term trading, but when you're trading kind of a little bit longer of a term, you're going to want a buy zone or a sell zone, not exactly, you know, a trend line. So, that's why we use these kind of uh you know, curved type of nature to our to our points, all right? So, notice something important about our trade, right? We're not predicting anything. We are not actually guessing, we're preparing.

[00:06:44]So, professional trading isn't about guessing, it's about having a plan before the market forces you to make emotional decisions. And really, if you struggle [clears throat] with that, which a lot of people do, get into our free pro group, because we will help you out with it. Remember, when we're up in the fair value gap, all right? Say we're at 67,500, 67,6, 67,8.

[00:07:09]Of [clears throat] course, the trade is going to hurt.

[00:07:13]Everything you do as a professional trader hurts. I said this yesterday, I'm going to hammer it home again. Remember, when you're executing your plan, it feels like you are an idiot, and it's quite painful, but you got your stop. If you're wrong, your stop's going to take care of business, so there's nothing to actually really uh get emotional about, right? But, we're we're looking for marketplace to actually come back down into the bottom zone, and we're saying that zone sits in here, the range 55 right around to 53 potential potential to actually dip down uh lower. Now, look, I've seen comments.

[00:07:52]I've seen people posting um a 2021 overlay. I want to take apart that chart right now and just show you the differences.

[00:08:01]So, as people are posting a 2021 overlay, and honestly, I see it, too. I see the double top. I see the bear flag. I see the breakdown in structure. They are remarkably similar. However, there's a big difference.

[00:08:16]The 2022 crash happened because Bitcoin had very little structural support below the breakdown. Look at this. There's nothing, okay? Straight upward movements, nothing there, okay?

[00:08:29]Actually, the first support came in right around 22. And then once that broke, we rallied back up against the resistance and then you know, crashed back down to the 16th 16,000 area. But today's market isn't built the same way.

[00:08:44]Between roughly 61 let's go 60 and 65,000 sits one of the strongest accumulation zones built in 2024.

[00:08:54]So, that doesn't guarantee the lows are in. No, but it does mean that the market structure today is fundamentally different than it was during the last major bear market. So, context matters. So, don't get fooled into thinking that we're not heading down a little bit lower, okay, into a major, you know, dollar cost averaging zone that we have been actually looking at for quite a while.

[00:09:21]Where is my dollar cost averaging zones?

[00:09:23]Right right in here, like right in this area right there are our dollar cost averaging zones. All right, so, this is the chart really is my favorite chart because it captures investor psychology really perfectly. No one brags about buying the bottom while they're actually buying it. The historic accumulation curve tells us really an interesting story back in 2019.

[00:09:47]Bitcoin entered this zone and then it rallied more than 2,100% in 2022. It did the same thing and entered the same type of area before climbing roughly 650% to all-time new highs. Now we're approaching the same region once again.

[00:10:05]Okay, so could history repeat exactly?

[00:10:07]No. First of all, there's a lot of major players in here. But actually, you can see the difference. Look, [snorts] when really nobody was involved, 2,120%.

[00:10:16]Uh bigger players started getting involved.

[00:10:19]They started capping it around 650.

[00:10:22]Eventually, they're going to get on board and we're looking up towards 150,000 in Bitcoin. But markets never owe us that. If history rhymes, this is the type of zone big players are going to claim they bought years from now. Even though today they're still waiting for confirmation.

[00:10:40]Remember, confirmation usually comes after the easy money has already been made. And again, in this area, every long that you take is going to hurt.

[00:10:52]It's going to be painful. All right, let's get into the 4-hour chart. Let's talk about what's going on in the 4-hour.

[00:10:57]Now as Bitcoin is coming up into our external liquidity pool right inside a fair value gap, we got actually some headwinds that are happening. So this is I believe that this is a trap. I believe it's a a trap. That's why we're going short. And if we just look at the macros again, looking at oil and the treasuries.

[00:11:17]What's What's going on again in the good old Middle East Iranian conflict? Oil has kind of reversed upward again, now trading at $85 a barrel. We look at the US treasuries, danger zone for risk assets, still sitting above it. Hasn't been any cooling whatsoever. So, as as the players are actually looking to maybe potentially get long in here, we gave these weekly trade levels out. So, get into our free pro group. This is the fair value gap that we're looking to sell into. So, let's get into the 4-hour right now. So, Bitcoin itself approaching the major level short-term at the $67,000 - $68,000 area. We're looking for actually to cool from this point. Here's your previous top at 67 before we fell down to the low of 57.1 or 57. I have 57.1.

[00:12:10]I don't know where they're getting 50 Every chart's different, man. That's a big difference, though. But, all right, let's go with 57.7. So, right now as it stands, we are approaching and getting ready to execute our short. Make sure you get in on the action, all right? Cuz we're not expecting it to go much above this level. Matter of fact, if it does, uh for you guys that are looking to go short, this would be a a great opportunity to sell it with a tight stop, probably right around 69.4 - 69.5.

[00:12:36]As it as if we can get executed, what we need to see happen is [snorts] Bitcoin break up below 64,000. Now, yesterday I told you that if we recovered 64,000 and hold it, we were traveling right up into our trade area, and that's exactly what's happening. All right, so let's get on over to Ethereum so we can finish up with what's happening with Ethereum.

[00:13:00]Now, Ethereum continues to act as an important confirmation signal for the broader crypto market itself. If Ethereum starts showing relative weakness while Bitcoin pushes into resistance, that would support the idea that the rally on Bitcoin is losing momentum.

[00:13:16]Now, on the other hand, if Ethereum can reclaim key resistance levels with strong volume, it could signal that buyers still have one more push left before the larger downward move unfolds.

[00:13:27]We're going to be watching liquidity levels, market structure, any sign of exhaustion very closely. So, as you can see, good old Tom gave you the level yesterday, 1950 bucks. We touched it. We're coming off right now. Next level of support for Ethereum is $1900.

[00:13:45]My dog is again looking for a treat. A break at 1900 will actually take us back down towards like the 1845. If we could break up through the 1950 hold, we're looking that we're going to gravitate towards the all important $2000 level.

[00:14:00]That area is I would not chase any green candles up there. If if if Bitcoin's rallying and we're wrong, well, then you could actually wait for a pullback probably back down to uh it would be like the 1900 and okay, well, I'll go 1918, but really it's uh down right 1915 to 1889 like that. All right, so, what do you got to do? Well, you definitely got to come on over to X. Follow us on X where we talk about Bitcoin, crypto, all day, every day. What else you got to do?

[00:14:28]Well, you got to trade with your head and not over it. What else you got to do?

[00:14:33]Uh you got to do your own research. As you know, I'm a trader just like you. I don't offer any financial advice.

[00:14:39]Uh so, also, last thing, if you are short-term trader, you got to enjoy the party, but dance near the door.

[00:14:48]I'll see you tomorrow. Cheers.