Trading up during a market correction is a sound theoretical arbitrage, but high transaction costs and interest rates often turn this "opportunity" into a financial trap. It remains a strategy for the liquid few rather than the over-leveraged many.
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BRAMPTON PRICES ARE FALLING HARDAdded:
I live in Brampton. Right now, the northwest side of Brampton, we bought this in uh 2020.
Um now, since 2022, obviously, the house prices here have corrected a bit. Our concern though stems from the schooling here in Brampton. Um it it's so it's pretty okay, uh but you know, our kids are now growing older and I can see uh based on some of the people that have moved to Oakville, I keep hearing Oakville schools are actually far better than the ones in Brampton.
Uh so, from that standpoint, we were thinking of moving, but given where we are right now, I don't know if it's a sound financial decision. So, we were looking for some sort of guidance from as to how should we be approaching a situation like this?
Well, you raised a great point.
Um that that particular city of Brampton, I think it's way, way past a correction.
I think it's uh I think the real estate values in Brampton are in a severe decline. Uh that's reality. Uh what did you pay for your home back in 2020?
1.28 1.28's [snorts] probably more like um you know, probably more like a million dollars today or slightly over a million dollars. So, it's all individual. Uh it depends on your mortgage amount.
Uh there's one way of looking at this.
The house values are down in Oakville as well. That's true of everybody in Canada when they're looking at this stuff, particularly Ontario, British Columbia.
If you're thinking about an upgrade to a better area, uh to a better school district, to a nicer home, um it cuts both ways. Like, your home is worth less that you're sitting in, but the value of the home you want to go to is also down.
So, it becomes a careful financial calculation, but it's not a disaster because one is if the if the house that's worth less is down, and you're buying a bigger house, if you can put the cash together to make the difference work, you're actually you have a small advantage if you're upgrading. So, that's the that's the issue. It means a careful calculus of what your mortgage amount is, what you would pay for real estate commissions, what your final sale price would be, and then you have to before you do anything start looking at the kind of product in a better community that you want to consider, and then how much cash can you bring to it? So, it's a lot [snorts] of moving parts, but from a financial perspective, if it's doable, it's not necessarily a disaster because you are buying at an equally low point for the new house. So, that is one consideration.
Okay. And I do see based on the prices run, Oakville doesn't seem to have corrected as much as Brampton. I don't know if it's just um bias based on what I'm looking at in terms of prices that I saw previously versus now, um but any um Can you shed some light on that? Has Oakville corrected as much as any other location in GTA? Well, let's be clear.
There are parts of the GTA that during the extreme run-up in prices in 20 uh 20 through 20 through early 2022, um there were locations across the GTA that prices ran up much faster than other locations. So, if and it's not just Oakville, it's a number of other locations throughout the GTA where the increases were not as massive as the changes that were occurring in other locations, particularly in 905.
So, that's when the when the correction happens, when the big decline starts, they just don't correct as much cuz they didn't go up as much. It's that simple.
Uh if you looked at the most prestigious areas in um downtown Toronto, the most luxury areas where the bank CEOs and the the the bank C-suite people live and the top [snorts] lawyers in Canada live, um their their prices didn't go up that much in 2021 and they haven't come down as much right now. So, that's [clears throat] probably the way to look at it. In certain certain neighborhoods are just more established, theoretically more prestigious and they retain their values better. Simple as that.
Okay, so that that was my question. All right, Ronan.
Great talking to you and good luck in your good luck in your search.
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