India Macro Outlook: Oil Prices Ease, Rupee Stabilizes, But Inflation Risks Rise

[00:00:00]When we look back in the month of May, April, and March, the two biggest negatives were, you know, oil hitting $160 a barrel, if not more. And of course, rupee plunging towards 96. They both seem to be temporarily under control and in favor of India. Now, it may not be a tailwind, but it is no longer a headwind. I'm just asking you to look forward into the crystal ball for, say, the next 6 to 9 months. Do you see a better macro picture for India, or is it still hazy?

[00:00:40]>> Um, contingent on what happens in front Friday. If suppose things go well, uh, I think the next May, June probably will suffer. July onwards things will look up.

[00:00:52]Uh, but the inflation probably could be a challenge because we are also seeing El Nino effects kicking in from from July, August, September. And that will directly hurt the food prices.

[00:01:04]Uh, given that we had a low inflation last year, so the base effect will also kick in. So, uh, on inflation side, I think there will be challenges even even though the war ends. Uh, but other economic parameters, especially capital flows, um, pressure on import will probably come down.

[00:01:24]>> Right.

[00:01:25]Uh, let's hope we have a better tomorrow given the pain that we've had over the last two through three and a half months, as also markets haven't done anything at all for the last 80.

[00:01:38]Let's hope the worst is behind us.

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