Christiansen effectively uses cost-benefit logic to strip away the glamour of conspiracy theories, proving that Occam’s razor is still the sharpest tool in political analysis. It is a refreshing, rational take that prioritizes cold math over heated speculation.
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The ‘Hoax’ Theories of the Third Trump Assassination Attempt | He Did It All for the BallroomAdded:
After yet another terrible attack on our president and by extension our country, I'm relieved to see a silver lining in people coming together, putting aside political differences to unite instead on what we share in common.
No, not foundational American values.
Don't be ridiculous. On the bipartisan suspicion that this must be a hoax or some kind of inside job. The suspicion is so strong that even Congress's most bitter girl boss rivalry is finally healing.
Sorry about what she said about your eyelash-induced brain rot. I think your fake eyelashes are messing up your brain.
>> No, I ain't nothing >> Hold on. Hold on.
>> And sorry about what she said about your vibrant hair and your very robust figure. Please blonde, bad built butch body.
>> A what now?
They have yet to reconcile formally, but Marjorie and Jasmine have come together on the principle that Saturday night's attempted assassination of Trump and anyone else in the way was not what it appears to be. Jasmine posted that maybe relaxed gun laws explain this, as though simply having a gun prompts one to a cross-country murder quest. Maybe it's a lack of mental health funding, as though sitting on a couch for a few hundred bucks an hour would have alleviated this guy's blue sky-induced psychosis and not worsened it. Or maybe it's just fake.
And just like Marjorie said about her eyelashes, Jasmine knows fake, so she must be onto something. Perhaps that's why Marjorie is at least somewhat convinced, though it wouldn't be fair to say that Marjorie is calling this a hoax. She's not. She says, "I'm not saying it's a hoax, actually. At least about Butler. I'm just reposting others with very long detailed descriptions about how that one was a hoax. In this case, whether it's fake or not, it's just very suspicious that this guy's manifesto was released immediately. So many questions about him. It would also be very suspicious if this guy's manifesto was withheld or never released at all. See, if they don't give us information, that's because they're keeping secrets. If they do give us information, that's because they want us to believe the narrative. Whatever's true, it is proof that hating Trump is a core value strong enough to repair even the most thoroughly burned bridges. So, I look forward to the Marjorie Jasmine reunion tour coming soon, and I certainly hope it's more roast comedy.
But of course, the hoax claim is just one way of processing and rationalizing one's view away from the simplest explanation. When you routinely call the president a fascist dictator, many will believe there's something noble, heroic, indeed necessary, about trying to kill the fascist dictator. So, they try it.
Well, actually, there's nothing abnormal going on at all. That's another rationalization strategy. What do you mean? Trump is getting attacked a lot.
People tried to kill Obama and Biden all the time. In fact, Trump has to catch up. Don't you remember? This is all just part of the job. Yeah, well, if you don't remember 11 supposed Obama assassination attempts, because I certainly don't, this guy's counting things like a guy shooting 25 rounds at the White House when Obama wasn't even home. In fairness, that guy did say he was trying to kill Obama, even if he totally misread the president's schedule, but that's by far the most convincing example. Others include a guy talking about killing Obama at a Waffle House in North Carolina without ever taking any action. And two guys who tried to build a so-called death ray x-ray device to get Obama. The supposed clansmen even consulted with their local Jews for help constructing this focused energy weapon, since they are the experts. They tried to ask Marjorie first, but she just got pissed off. Tell us about Jewish space No, why don't you why don't you go talk about Jewish space lasers? And really, why don't you off?
How about that?
>> The point is, the number of actual gunshots or laser blasts taken at Obama or Biden as president is zero. The number of people who even got close enough to try it is zero. The collateral damage in these supposed Obama or Biden assassination attempts is also zero. In the Trump attempts, however, there's been realized injury and death. Okay, fine. So, there have been more serious attempts on Trump's life, but that's really his fault, isn't it?
Outside of Marjorie and Jasmine, that is the preferred congressional cope.
Trump's own words explain why people want to shoot him. Threat levels that are going up in part because of the uh the president >> When people talk about destroying civilizations or calling people names, normalizing all of these things, we should try to talk about the issues and try to hold ourselves to that standard.
And the president um has failed at every turn. Press secretary wants to lecture America and lecture us about civility? Get lost. Clean up your own house.
>> Of course, such an explanation relies on the premise that words understandably prompt violence. Apparently now, words do hurt. So, we're grabbing sticks and stones to go break his bones. And some have just avoided that moral mess entirely by claiming that left-wing politics have nothing to do with it.
Just take the off-ramp and avoid the premise that this even is left-wing violence at all. You idiots, don't you know that this attempted assassin and the one before that and the one before that were all right-wingers. I thought this was some sort of parody account.
Unless I'm missing something, it appears sincere with no supporting evidence whatsoever, yet somehow still worthy of 80,000 plus likes on X. I guess given how unpersuasive the rest of the options are, maybe the hoax theory really is the best choice. If you refuse to accept the simplest explanation that calling and believing a guy is a fascist dictator creates a moral imperative to try to kill him. Of the choices, it is the most plausible, since at least there's an attempt at evidence. Cuz after all, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt gave the plot away mere hours beforehand.
It'll be funny. It'll be entertaining.
There will be some shots fired tonight in the room. Cuz after all, the best way to conceal a super secret plot is to discuss it openly on a national news broadcast right before it kicks off. And when the one honest reporter in the room, a Fox News reporter we'd never trust in any other context but this one, when she bravely tried to call the broadcast to reveal that truth, they quickly cut her off. I was sitting next to Karoline Leavitt, the press secretary's husband. He kind of leaned over and said, "You know, I watched you on TV. You did a great job. You need to be very safe." And and he was just very serious when he said that to me. And he kind of looked around the room and he said, "You know, there are some Sounds like we lost Aisha's phone there.
>> I guess Karoline and her henchmen must have assassinated her, too, before she could expose the cover that Karoline had already exposed herself for some reason.
Either that or the call dropped because there were a million calls coming from that same location simultaneously. And Karoline's husband was telling this reporter to be careful because there are always deranged violent leftists around.
You know, like the ones outside right now, openly advocating murder. And the one who agrees with them, currently gathering his firearms and doing some hamstring stretches to get loose for his Naruto run. According to a Washington Post analysis published Monday, about 20% of left-wing or liberal influencer and politician posts about this attempted assassination, quote, "used conspiratorial language," as the Post characterizes it. Does that mean endorsing a hoax theory? Does that mean just asking questions? They don't define, but whether this methodology is solid or not, the number of prominent progressive personalities rejecting the simple explanation is significant. So, why then? Play the theory out. Trump and his people hoaxed this attack for what reason? The theories are primarily two, and they aren't mutually exclusive. They can correspond. Theory one, Trump is at a low point in his popularity. So, he needs victim points to boost his political capital and Republican prospects in the midterms. His numbers right now are down in the basement. His Iran war is incredibly unpopular. People are pissed at as hell at the price of gas and the price of everything going up. And so, people look at this and say, "Oh my god, is he trying to distract us again?" I actually agree with the premise that Trump is down politically. Polling supports it. For the valid reason that Americans are wary of the economic and many other consequences of yet another Middle Eastern war, but an attempted assassination will change none of that.
Well, I was very discouraged with $4 gas and ongoing military entanglement, but since a crazy guy with a shotgun ran around a hotel for a few minutes, I'm now persuaded to put up with it. Nobody will say that because it's irrelevant to their wallet, which is why you will see polling on the economy and the war move exactly zero points in response to this attack. Okay, well, theory two, actually, it's all just a plot to get Trump's White House ballroom built. The The has been stalled in the courts, and off-site security threat plays right into Trump's push for the project. And look, the DOJ even made a new court filing citing this attack as a reason to allow the project to continue. And Trump went straight to the point right after the attack. We need the ballroom. That's why the Secret Service, that's why the military are demanding it. And the propaganda was immediately effective fooling the vulnerable with easily impressionable minds. Drop the TDS. You know, let's just build this ballroom.
>> Why would there be any reluctance or resistance to building it?
>> I really don't understand. The only thing that I could explain that it's the the TDS. And while I don't actually think it's unreasonable to say that this attack is serving the ballroom purpose, there is no other way to characterize the court filing or what members of Congress are saying in response. There's a chorus of unanimity. It's time to build the ballroom. The simpler explanation is it's just true at face value. It is actually time to build the ballroom.
Security is more difficult off-site, so why don't we have a proper venue for presidential events on-site at the White House. And while I do love a good hoax theory and will always defend thinking critically about official government narratives on principle, it's very important that we do.
It's also important that we think just as critically about the hoax theory itself, too. Cuz beyond the blue sky feed showing this guy is politically predisposed to do exactly what he did.
Beyond the fact that if this is a hoax, he has nothing to gain from it. He may get life in prison in exchange for what? Money he won't be able to spend if he planned to give it to someone else close to him. That's apparently news to them since his family was calling police on him, not helping with the scheme. Beyond the shooter having no reason to act this way other than pure Trump hate, believing he was actually selected by Trump to do things in Trumpy service requires me to accept even more preposterous premises. Like most things in life, a plausible hoax relies on a simple cost-benefit analysis. Analyze the incentives. People do what's in their interest. So, in an actual hoax like Jussie Smollett or any one of the grab bag of backward swastika spray painted somewhere to collect GoFundMe bucks, the aim is low risk, high reward.
You do just a little bit of damage to collect money or fame, but you don't put yourself or anybody else in any real danger. That's why the supposed crime always occurs out of sight like 2:00 a.m. polar vortex Chicago or otherwise late at night when dang it, the security cameras weren't working for some reason.
So, add new ones to the list of things the GoFundMe money is for. But this case, if it's a hoax, is the exact opposite. It's massively high risk for almost no reward in plain public view with hundreds, maybe thousands of witnesses. The risk of blown cover is almost a guarantee and the physical risk is even greater still. With all the guns drawn from different security forces, it's a miracle that there was no friendly fire. And actually, it still remains possible that there was. So, all that danger for what? To try to influence polling which Trump has never cared about and won't move anyway or to make a court filing to try to get a ballroom done which almost certainly will not be legally decided on that basis anyway.
This plot would risk everything to gain nothing. And I get it, Trump is Hitler.
That's why we have to shoot him. But it's also fake every time we try. But no matter how Hitlerian you think Trump is, do you really think he takes the cost-benefit of that deal that he would put not just himself but his own family members, his own cabinet members, and everybody else in that venue in danger of getting shot for such little upside?
Well, come on. His people were actually protected. Clearly, were they? Cuz a Secret Service agent was shot. But even if Trump's closest people were protected in this plot, do you really believe he would make service workers suffer for such a silly stunt? There was a server next to us who because we were literally THEY WERE PICKING UP THE PLATES cuz we were about to have dinner. And they come running in as she hits the ground with us and she's shaking and crying and Ali Vitali and I are consoling her telling her it's going to be okay. Right. I didn't know it was going to be okay, but I have the same thing. I am grateful that it was that we that it was. Now, to be totally clear, Symone Sanders is not saying hoax in that segment. It's just a description of who Trump apparently made suffer if this was all a big self-serving hoax. But even though it seems ridiculous to say yes, Trump would make those poor servers tremble in fear for their lives just for a slight bump in the polls or the prospect of a little bit of an edge in a lawsuit, well, that is exactly what they believe. Yes, Trump would ruthlessly inflict pain and suffering on others for little or no reason at all, which is exactly the reason we would have to shoot him, but we don't. He fakes it every time also because he's that bad of a person. In other words, the reason any explanation is acceptable is because the answer is yes to anything other than my committed worldview might have some holes in it. I will never consider that possibility. I'll put holes in other people before I do.
Luckily, they have a terrible record trying to put holes in other people. Oh, well, that's also evidence that it's all fake. Someone would have succeeded by now. Would they? Again, consider simpler terms. Maybe they're just bad at stuff, which is why they generally embrace a philosophy deflecting personal accountability, blaming others for their problems, believing everyone else owes them automatic prosperity, which isn't true and isn't possible anyway. Where there's any doubt, incompetence is always a better default explanation than sophistication because incompetence is way more often true. After all, if there is one thing more ridiculous than calling these three right wing, it would be calling them sophisticated.
Thanks as always for listening and for supporting this channel always.
Appreciate that thoughtful discussion down below and especially over on X.
That is @ M L Christensen. You're always welcome to come out and check my live streams as live on Wednesday and Sunday nights. Looking forward to it. Come on.
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