The Market Doesnt Care About Your Opinion

本站添加: 2026-05-13

[00:00:02]Hello, welcome traders. I'm going to do a little training tonight again and I want to continue on this little series uh that I started and tonight I want to talk to you about and this is a really thing is going to be a really great lesson. Okay, it's going to cover one of the most misunderstood ideas in all of trading. The relationship between a trader's opinion and what the market actually does. So, I'm going to talk tonight about why the market doesn't care about your opinion. Okay? So, let's get into this uh tonight and by the end of this lesson you should be able to describe what the market responds to, whether it's IV, price action, premium, explain why strong conviction is a liability uh and understand the reactive training framework or trading framework. All right, let's get into it.

[00:00:49]I want you to read this quote uh and I want you to take a minute here uh to to read through it and just let it land on you, but the market is the collective real-time expression of capital flows.

[00:01:01]Fear, greed, hedging activity, institutional positioning and macro events. Okay, much of which you have zero visibility into it. Okay? The key point here is to dismantle the idea that the market is an opponent to be beaten or a test to be passed. It's really just a massive aggregation of capital movement. Most retail traders enter the market with a thesis and expect the market to validate it. Well, that's not how things work.

[00:01:32]Okay? The market is indifferent. It doesn't care about your opinion. Our job is to respond to it, not argue with it.

[00:01:40]So, all right, so let's let's move in and talk about what the market does respond to. There's three signals the market actually generates that you should be paying attention to.

[00:01:50]Okay?

[00:01:51]These aren't your opinions layered on the market. These are the market speaking to you. Okay? Befo- I want you to think right now, before your last trade, and obviously you can't answer me, but I want you to answer yourself out loud here, before your last trade, did you check any of these three things that are up on the screen right now? Number one, implied volatility. Okay? The market's real-time pricing of uncertainty. High IV equals large moves are expected. Low IV means calm prices okay, and a calmer market. IV environment dictates what strategies are favorable. Okay? I know you hear, "Well, high high IV, we want to be option sellers and premium sellers in high IV." Do you?

[00:02:37]Okay? Do you want a high IV market where large giant moves are expected?

[00:02:45]I don't. Okay? I know this is kind of the Tasty Trade way and talk about high IV and I'm not saying that trading with elevated IV is not a a good thing cuz it does give you more premium, okay?

[00:02:57]But, I kind of like the calmer environments okay, where things are much more predictable for me. Right? But, understanding IV and implied volatility are is important.

[00:03:08]Right? Totally agree on that. Next one here, price action. I think price action's king, but price is the only objective truth in the market. Okay? It doesn't lie. Okay? It doesn't have an agenda and it doesn't care about your analysis. Okay? You read what it's doing, not what you think it should do.

[00:03:26]What is price doing? Is it rising? Is it falling? Is it breaking trends? Uh is it higher highs, higher lows? Is it neutral? What is the price action telling you? The only thing that matters to me in trading is price action.

[00:03:41]Okay?

[00:03:42]Understand that your trading will improve. Okay? Get rid of your thesis, get rid of I Here's what I think the president's going to tweet or do. Here's what's going to happen in the war.

[00:03:52]Here's what's going to happen, in Congress. Here's what's going to happen, you know, if the government shuts down.

[00:03:57]Here's what the Fed's going to Who cares? Okay? What's important is price action. What's the price doing? Is the only thing that matters is what price does. Okay?

[00:04:06]Which is why I hate stocks so much and love indexes uh and ETFs a lot more because individual stocks well, they can go up and down on anything that and their price action is somewhat unpredictable at times. Okay? I like things that are a little bit more calm.

[00:04:21]Then, last thing here is premium levels.

[00:04:22]Option premiums expand and contract based upon demand. Okay? And volatility.

[00:04:29]When premium is rich selling strategies have a favorable expected value. Okay?

[00:04:35]The market signals this opportunity to you.

[00:04:39]Most people are going to admit that if you don't check any of these, okay, you went straight to your directional thesis of what you think is supposed to happen in the market, this is a habit I want to help try to break with you tonight.

[00:04:51]All right.

[00:04:52]Let's jump into these two things. The two two signal here is and we're going to talk about implied volatility and price action. Here's a critical reframe for you. Most traders ask where should the price go based upon my analysis?

[00:05:06]Okay? Profitable [clears throat] traders ask, what's the price doing right now and what's that mean for my plan?

[00:05:11]Okay?

[00:05:12]Not where I think it's going to go.

[00:05:15]What's it doing right now? Okay? And what does that mean for my plan? For IV I want you to understand the concept and the concept of IV rank and IV percentile. When IV is in the top 25% of its range selling premium is typically favorable.

[00:05:31]So, again, it can be favorable there, but understand you're going to have these large swings out there. Okay? In low IV environments okay, I you know, buying strategies work a little bit better cuz things are more calm, easier to buy and predict what's happening and premium's not elevated, so it's cheaper to buy something. Okay? Premium can be thin. Always know what environment you're in as well. Now, for price action okay, price is the final arbiter. Okay, it's the thing for me. It doesn't lie. It doesn't have an agenda uh out there. It reflects what participants are actually doing with real capital, not what they're saying. I don't care what people post on Twitter and YouTube and Facebook. I could care less. I don't watch the news. I don't turn on CNBC. I don't read Bloomberg and I don't read what people put on X. Okay? I don't care. It's actually aggravating sometimes in our Discord when people are re- posting things from Twitter. I don't care. Okay? It doesn't matter what people are saying or doing because opinions don't matter. All news is is someone interpreting an actual event.

[00:06:42]Okay?

[00:06:42]I want to know what price is doing.

[00:06:44]Okay? I don't care what people think and the reason behind it the price movement is. I care about what is the price actually doing. Okay?

[00:06:52]I'm I'm looking at candlestick closes.

[00:06:54]I'm looking at support and resistance levels. I'm looking at trend structure.

[00:06:58]Okay? That's the vocabulary of the market. That's what's important. Okay?

[00:07:02]Where should price go is not the question. The question is what is price actually doing right now? Okay? Let's keep moving on. I I'm passionate about this stuff, you can tell. The danger of conviction.

[00:07:17]Okay? This is an emotionally you know, resonance night, I think, for people.

[00:07:21]Most traders have a story about doubling down. You've either done it or you know somebody who has. Okay?

[00:07:27]I want you to think about that. Have you ever doubled down on a position?

[00:07:31]Okay? Because you have strong conviction. Okay? The the famous you know, Keynes' quote delivers this this point home here is the market can stay irrational for longer than an individual trader can stay solvent. Okay?

[00:07:48]Don't get so convicted that you're going to double down, increase your size because things have been going correctly. Okay, the key lesson here is having an opinion is fine. The mistake is when you marry the opinion that you have and start managing your position around protecting the opinion >> [clears throat] >> rather than protecting the capital.

[00:08:07]Okay? Let me say that again.

[00:08:10]The mistake many people make is marrying your opinion and start managing your position around protecting the opinion instead of the protecting your capital. An opinion is a hypothesis.

[00:08:24]Price is the actual result. The experimental result. Uh here. So, we want you to you know, stay away from having conviction out there and just trade the price and look at what it's doing.

[00:08:37]It can be catastrophic to you to increase or get too convicted that you are solidly in belief that this is what's going to happen. Who cares? No one cares what you think and no one should care what I think. What you should matter is what's price saying right now that we're doing and manage to that. All right.

[00:08:55]Reacting versus predicting.

[00:08:58]Okay?

[00:08:59]There's a quick how to fix it slide for you. Okay? The reactive framework is the core skill we want you to build. We work on this in our Discord. Okay? Walking through what a pre-planned scenario looks like. So, let's say you know, if S People might say, you know, if SPX holds above 5400 tomorrow, I'm going to sell a put spread.

[00:09:20]Okay? Again, that's a pre-planned scenario. Okay? If if SPX stays at a level, I'm going to sell a put spread.

[00:09:27]If SPX breaks below this with some momentum I'm getting out. Or if SPX gaps down at the open, I'm going to wait 30 minutes before I enter any trade. Again none of these decisions are made in real time under emotional pressure. They're already made.

[00:09:43]Your only job is execution.

[00:09:46]Okay? Rules-based systems work because they remove the decision bottleneck which is the human brain under stress here. So, predicting Hey, the market has to go up. You know what? The market's overbought. It has to go down at some point. Should I start selling this type of a trade?" Okay, I have what's called a BA112 or 11X type trade. Okay, the BA trade is a beautiful trade for a market that's overbought and maybe tipping over. Okay, I don't know when the tip over point might be. Okay, it doesn't have to go down. The market can stay up.

[00:10:19]So, would I put that trade on?

[00:10:21]It's a pretty good probability trade, maybe, but you can't really have the opinion of, "Hey, we're overbought.

[00:10:28]We're going to go down." You just have to put the trade on understanding exactly what the market's doing, and you have to manage it according to what the market does. So, don't position around your thesis. Okay, don't add to losers to be right. Okay, don't get emotionally attached to the outcome here. Right? The more important thing here is reacting.

[00:10:49]If price does X, I'm going to do Y. If this, then that. Okay?

[00:10:55]Pre-plan your scenarios in advance.

[00:10:57]Follow your rules under pressure. Remove emotions from your execution cuz you're going to have more consistent results if you follow a rules-based plan. Okay, you can't be winging it and making 19 adjustments out there. Okay, you're really probably not good enough to do that. Okay, most of us aren't, no matter how long we've been trading. Have rules, follow them, make your life easy, remove your emotions from it. Rules will remove your emotions. All right.

[00:11:28]Let's keep moving on. All right, some some takeaways from what I just covered.

[00:11:32]Okay, I want you to read through these on your own. Okay, but let me let me let me go through them with you, and I want you to write down the one that resonates with you most. So, I know I'm giving you a little bit of assignment here, but I really want you to think about this.

[00:11:46]Look at the screen. Okay, write down the one that resonates with you most. Okay?

[00:11:52]Number one, the market does not respond to opinions. It responds to capital flows, price, and volatility. That's a key takeaway.

[00:12:00]Okay, number two, implied volatility is the market's real-time signal about expected risk. Always know your IV environment.

[00:12:09]Next, price action is the only objective truth available to a trader. Okay, let it be the final arbiter.

[00:12:18]Next, strong conviction without flexibility is a liability, not an asset. You do not need to have strong conviction. You need to follow your plan. Okay, you need to be flexible enough to do what your plan tells you, not what you think is supposed to happen.

[00:12:34]And then lastly here, I want you to build a reactive framework. Pleap pre-plan your responses rather than making live emotional decisions.

[00:12:43]So, which of these five, okay, is the one that, you know, would help you most in your trading? Okay, and put that one into play. Then put the next one and the next one. Okay?

[00:12:55]This is actionable. Should be a highlighted as a bridge into what we do as you start to be build your own trade rules out there. So, take a look at these takeaways. Think about what makes the most sense for you. All right? Because the market is never going to meet you halfway. Okay, your only job in the market is to read it clearly, react to it, and react to it decisively, and let the process do the rest. We talked about that in the past last video, we talked about focusing on the process and not the outcome. Okay?

[00:13:29]These all build on each other. Okay, I mean, this is good stuff, folks. Okay, I'm I'm giving you how to build your plan, your mindset, your trading persona out there. Okay, I want you to I want to reinforce this that you don't have to be right about the market. You just have to be a disciplined responder to it, to what price is doing. The best traders in the world aren't forecasting. Okay, they're just the best rule followers.

[00:13:56]Okay, they're following their entry and their exit and their adjustments per their trade plan. Okay?

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