Bitcoin At Key Support - Reversal Or Breakdown?

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]So, the Bitcoin chart has retested the red support line, which was previous resistance, and this line is located around $74,500.

[00:00:11]We talked about this line many times.

[00:00:13]It's been quite central to our analysis over the last few months. It was the April low that formed last year. It was resistance several times in March, then the price broke above it in April, and we've come down to retest it. So, this is quite a key spot. I will share with you in this video what we can expect over the coming sessions. Don't necessarily expect too much action today, but the price has formed a very interesting pattern on the smaller time frame. We're going to take a look at that, and I will share with you what the support and resistance levels are this week. Now, we start on the higher time frame. Again, there's absolutely no change to the analysis. Those who have been watching the updates over the last few months know that, well, we've been incredibly consistent here. The idea was for one more low to form in February, then a rally into May, and for the price to reach resistance. My targets have been reached um a week ago a couple weeks ago uh in the area around 82K. And now, I mean, technically speaking, the the forecast I uploaded for Q2 has been fulfilled. Um I mean, it's entirely entirely possible that we get another extension in the B wave to the upside. For those who want to learn more about that, check out yesterday's video. I spent 15 minutes talking about possible bullish scenarios.

[00:01:35]Um whereas only really the blue count is part of our main thesis, which means we're in a larger bearish structure. The orange count would be the bullish alternative. Can't ignore it, but it's also not incredibly likely at this stage, either.

[00:01:51]What is important is we were watching for a rally from the February lows um into Q2, and this rally has not clearly topped yet. Surely, the market got rejected from the upper boundary line of this beautiful price channel it formed.

[00:02:10]And it also got rejected from the 200-day moving average. And it also got rejected from the 100% extension. And for those who remember the heat map I showed you from our terminal, the price also got rejected from the liquidity cluster we defined around 83K.

[00:02:28]But we do not yet have a clear five-wave decline, so I'm unable to confirm yet that we have a top. But again, we talked about that in detail yesterday. I think the focus today is on identifying what will be important over the coming sessions and specifically for this week.

[00:02:42]Before we go to the smaller timeframe, I am going to watch here clearly the 200-day moving average as nearest resistance on the daily chart, then 82K. But there are some resistance levels on the smaller timeframe that we should also not ignore. And then obviously, as soon as we break decisively below the lower boundary line of this bear flag, maybe, or at least a channel, it will become more probable that we have a top and this could really give way to a rapid decline towards first of all 56K, then 44K, maybe even 39K. But as I said before, 39K is definitely not a call at this stage yet. It is not really a firm target yet. It is simply there like a landmark, as orientation, because this 100% extension target at 39K. The 100% extension often works so well. Just quick reminder, we talked about it back in January in my Q1 update. Yeah, and we highlighted, "Hey, you know, the 100% extension should take the price down to round about 62-63 K. We landed there and recovered.

[00:04:00]And then we talked early in April about the 100% extension to the upside at 82 K. Both worked fine. They usually work.

[00:04:08]It also worked back in 2022. For those of you who are new on the channel, it is one of the most reliable Fibonacci projections and we use it all the time.

[00:04:18]And it's cuz not too many people really know how to use Fibonacci properly, it is not a very well-known extension. Yeah? I don't know, it's actually quite simple, but 47 K was at the time also the target in 2022.

[00:04:35]I even remember making videos back then in this mess. Okay, so I think overall the situation should be very clear and the overall pressure remains down.

[00:04:46]The move to the upside is clearly just corrective in nature, but remember few Was it one or two weeks ago I made a specific video here and I try to give you a different angle every time in the videos.

[00:04:59]I made a video in which I compared Bitcoin's price action to the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

[00:05:06]And I explained to you that Bitcoin can extend higher especially as long as the stock market is still extending higher, which it's doing at the moment. We don't have a sign of a top yet.

[00:05:19]So as long as this rally, especially from the March low, is still unfolding Bitcoin hasn't confirmed in any way or likely will not confirm in any way a top. But once we start to see a decent correction in the stock market we will likely see something similar on the Bitcoin chart as well and it could be the move down in the C wave that we're watching for.

[00:05:41]So but I think with this information you already have a good idea of the overall risks here. You have a good idea that the market can of course, still grind higher, even speculated yesterday with you um that we might even see Bitcoin in the 95 to 100k area, still possible, but the market needs to show a very specific pattern and break out above first resistance in this zone, as well as said, 200-day moving average, keep that in mind, it's currently located around 79 and 1/2 K.

[00:06:08]But if we look at the micro patterns, short-term, yeah, you can see that Bitcoin has formed a five-wave advance.

[00:06:16]I'm going to zoom in in a minute. What is even more important than a five-wave advance is that the pullback from the high in May ended as a so-called three-wave move. And a three-wave decline is not a confirmation for a complete breakdown. It rather leaves the door open for higher prices. So, we don't have five down yet. Someone asked me yeah, but you you how can it be three down if it's five? Well, it's A B C three waves because a C wave is five waves. Okay, so it's overall three but with the internal structure of five waves in wave C.

[00:06:53]It's very important to understand. I should probably reduce the wave degree here by one, but that is basically how it is. So, but that's not even so important. What is more important is in this move down, can Bitcoin give us a signal that it wants to go up again?

[00:07:09]And how can it do that? It can do that through an impulsive reaction to support where here our small support cluster around 74 and 1/2 to 74.9k.

[00:07:21]And we haven't seen um a a sustained break below that support cluster.

[00:07:26]And the market has indeed given us a first upside impulse which we can call wave one.

[00:07:32]So, that's already important. So, we do have an indication Bitcoin wants to go higher, possibly this week, next week.

[00:07:41]Condition is that we're holding micro support because when we have when we have a five-wave move in one direction, we can define the support zone uh with the help of standard Fibonacci support levels here with the Fibonacci tool on TradingView. And for a so-called wave two, which is the corrective pullback after a five-wave advance, standard support is between the 78.6 retracement and the 38.2 retracement, 74,8 60 to 76,200.

[00:08:13]So, if we see over the coming sessions a pullback and a move towards this support area, it could indeed be the indicator that from there we could get a rally in a third wave. Now, a pullback is by no means guaranteed.

[00:08:25]It is simply the support area, it's not a target. So, what we need is to keep it very simple, to keep the local upside reversal attempt alive, we need to see that the market holds [snorts] in any pullback now above 74,860.

[00:08:41]This is standard support. Um and also to confirm that we're reversing, we need a break above 78,236.

[00:08:49]That is really the very first resistance. Why? Because in the short-term bearish count where one more low would give us five waves down, and remember that five waves indicate the trend direction, so if we get one more low, it really does look like the market wants to break down.

[00:09:06]Overall, um in this bearish count, the resistance for this corrective move up, which is part of the bearish move, just a bounce in the bear pattern, the resistance ends at the 50% retracement. So, logically breaking above it could really be a good indication that we are reversing here to the upside.

[00:09:28]And that is how I see Bitcoin at the moment. It should give you a good idea of the short-term support and resistance levels. And remember what I said yesterday, should we break above this initial resistance? First of all, the 200-day moving average will be relevant, but then also the May highs as next resistance in the 82k area.

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[00:10:42]Bye-bye.