Shannon delivers a clinical breakdown of the "success trap," where elite performance is increasingly throttled by the unforgiving mathematics of the salary cap. It’s a sharp reminder that in the modern NHL, financial engineering is now just as vital as on-ice talent for sustained contention.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
Dallas Getting Further From the Cup Amid Cap TroublesAdded:
Welcome back. It is time to talk about the Dallas Stars. Uh so, as I continue with my look at teams that got eliminated from the 2026 playoffs, uh we're going to talk about Dallas today.
Now, Dallas got eliminated earlier than they have the last few years, and honestly, I I found that a lot easier to take. I am still of the belief that when your team loses in the first round, it's a little bit easier to handle than when they lose in the conference final. There may be some exceptions, yes, but personally, I find it easier. So, they lost in the first round against Minnesota in six games this year. They were very good during most of the regular season, 50, 20, and 12, 112 points. There were points during the season where I felt like they weren't quite dialed in and they weren't playing all that great and then we saw some of that play against Minnesota in that first round. Uh, last year, 5026 and six record for 106 points. They got to the conference final. They lost in five games against Edmonton. Pete Dbor wasn't happy with Ouer. Uh the Stars then let Pete let Pete Dbor go and brought in Glenn Gulletson. And here we are uh 2023 2024 they finished 5221-9 113 points.
Conference finalists again that year and they lost in six against Edmonton. 2022 2023 4721-4 record 108 points. Went to the conference finals and lost against Vegas in six. So, it's always funny to me that I always hear about how bad the Pacific Division is. Pacific Division sucks. It sucks. And yet, three straight years coming into this one, the Pacific Division winner has ended up eliminating the Central Division winner. And as I'm recording this, Vegas is up one game to nothing on Colorado. So, it could very well happen again. Uh 2021, 2022, Dallas does not get that far. Uh 4630 and six record 98 points. They lost in the first round against Calgary in seven, a series which made a hero out of Jay Cotton. And I think it raised the level of expectations maybe a bit higher than what he can reach. He hasn't quite played that at that level that consistently since that first round loss against Calgary. So their cap space is going to be a talking point all off season. And I've talked in in other videos and in live streams about how I think that, you know, trading Sean makes the most sense for this team. Sean's not in the top 10 scorers, missed about half the season. Um, and it would free up enough cap space to not have to worry about Robertson. But remember, if you are of the belief that your team's going to pull Robertson away from Dallas, uh, it would probably take a $12 million cap hit to pry him away from Dallas because then Dallas gets the four first rounders. So, it's a very, very pricey contract if a team is going to try to steal Robertson. And anything less than that in Dallas just matches in my opinion. I know they only have 11 million in cap space, almost 11 million in cap space, but there are ways to make cap space if you need to. And Dallas has made it clear they're not letting Robertson go anywhere else. Um, now they're pending unrestricted free agent list. You have Bunting probably on his way out. Absolutely. Uh, Ben, Ben probably returns for one more year, I would think. Um, I've talked about Ben a lot. We'll talk about Ben again later before this video is done. uh Adam Ernie, uh Nathan Bastion, uh Patravvic, none of them are going to be overly pricey to either keep or to replace. But on the restricted free agent side, you've got three interesting names led by Jason Robertson, who was their leading scorer. He deserves a big pay raise. I have no idea what that's going to look like. Uh Maverick Bourc had a very good season and I think there's potential for a heck of a lot more points and goals from Bourke in the future. and then Huru, who I think was good for them in a bottom six role and be smart for them to give him like a three-year contract. I would I don't know what the cap hit for that would necessarily look like, but there are some good young players in Dallas. That is one thing with the Stars. They've been, you know, a top team now for four years in the regular season, but with the amount of youth they have in their lineup, they shouldn't have a severe drop off anytime soon. They should still be good next year. Now, their goal scoring was in the top 10. uh 3.33 goals scored per game was ninth in the NHL.
Their goals against uh 2.71 goals against per game. That was second overall in the National Hockey League.
So, their defense was very, very good.
Their goalending was solid as well. Uh their power play second in the NHL at 28.6%.
Uh as I remember it against Minnesota, it had it struggles in the first round, but either way, um no, no, no, no, that got that backwards. Fi, they were very good five on five. they couldn't beat Minnesota cuz I'm remembering was it was it Marcus Felino that was like yeah they can't hang with us five on five. He wasn't wrong. Uh the penalty kill 13th at 80.3%. So their special teams very good when when needed. Um probably need to be a little bit better five on five next year. Uh definitely a discussion point to be had. But Jim Nil finds himself in both an admirable position and a position that's very difficult in that he's got a team that's very good.
There's a good pipeline. There's a lot of good young players here, a lot of good veterans, too. It's an overall, it's a really good mix. However, it's not a winning mix. This team has not been to a Stanley Cup final, like I said, since 2020. Uh, the last four years, they've looked like a team that could make a push that far, but they have not. So, it's a matter of finding a way to get over the hump. Now, their scoring leader was Jason Robertson. Uh, 82 games, 45 goals, 51 assists, 96 points. I'm sad he didn't get 50 goals, and 100 points this year. In the playoffs, he was very good. Five goals, three assists, eight points in six games. He was not the problem against Minnesota. Wyatt Johnston, 82 games, 45 goals, 41 assists, 86 points. Same with Johnston. I I thought he'd have a shot at that 50 goal mark. Maybe he will soon. Uh in the playoffs, four goals, two assists, six points in six games. He had a good series as well. Mo Rantin, 64 games during the regular season, 22 goals, 55 assists, 77 points. In the playoffs, six games, one goal, six assists, seven points. I'm still on the fence on that trade for Ranton and two because I'm looking at how Stankovven's taking that next step for Carolina in the playoffs this year. I do have some concern as a Stars fan that Stankovven could be a 30 goal scorer next year and he could see his his overall contributions going up. Well, Rantin, you have to think he's going to slow down. Not necessarily really really soon, but it's just one of those things.
I think the longer we go, the more that trade kind of evens out uh between Carolina and Dallas for Rantin. Henan, 77 games, nine goals, 54 assists, 63 points in the playoffs. Two goals, four assists, six points in six games. Uh Duchain 57 games, 16 goals, 29 assists, 45 points. He was very good in that first round series. Two goals, seven assists for nine points in six games.
They missed Hints. Hints was was greatly missed by Dallas when he was out of the lineup. 53 games, 15 goals night, 29 assists for 44 points. He did not appear in the playoffs. And that hurt him. It It definitely did. Uh that's why when I see people saying, "Well, maybe maybe Hint ends up being traded." I think they'd be crazy to trade Roe Hint. I do.
Uh Maverick Bourke 82 games, 20 goals, 21 assists, 41 points in the playoffs, just the one goal in six games. Believe that's his first playoff experience at least as being a key guy for a team. So, um, not a great performance necessarily from Bourke, but there's definitely, you know, growth there. As I said before, uh, Ben, 60 games, 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points. Uh, no points in the playoffs in six games where where Ben trips me up as a Stars fan is there's too many times, and you can go back through this channel's history. just just watch games about where Dallas gets eliminated and count how many times I've talked about Jaime Ben not necessarily performing as well as I'd like him to or taking bad penalties. Uh it just it just feels like it happens a lot. So when people are like ah that Ben should be suspended, you might find a Dallas Stars fan or two that goes, "Is it a playoff game?" Then maybe. Um Harley games, six goals, 30 assists, 36 points, and in the playoffs, no points in six games. Minnesota shut him down. Uh Steel had a pretty good season. 12 goals, 21 assists, 33 points in 73 games. He also recorded no points in six games. While the top producers produced during the five on four power plays, uh five on five, there really wasn't a whole lot going on for Dallas and their depth scoring uh a big part of that, right? Because your depth players aren't going to be playing on the power play so much. And so when they're getting shut down five on five, yeah, you're going to end up with no points from them during the playoffs. Uh their goalending Auter 3512-6 8.99 save percentage in the playoffs 2 and4 893 safe percentage. Was he good enough against Minnesota? Probably not. Uh the defense in front of him was kind of shaky and at times as well. Uh Casey D Smith was fantastic as a backup. 158 and six with a 9007 safe percentage. I'm very very impressed with how Smith's played over the last what three years now that Smith's been pretty darn good.
So for does he get overplayed at times?
probably uh but I also think the expectations for probably a little bit too high. He is he is one of those goalenders who's very good. I don't think he'll cost a team a Stanley Cup, but is he going to drag a team single-handedly to a Stanley Cup? He's not really that type of goalender either. Now, their top prospects, keeping in mind, they have been near the top. They're not drafting really highly, and a lot of their their good recent draft picks have ended up in the lineup.
Uh Emil Heming is listed as their top prospect on uh The Athletic. uh he's a right winger. Cameron Schmidt, also a right winger, is second on the list. Uh Tristan Bertu Bertuchi is a defenseman, he's third. And Remy Po Parareier, uh the goalender is fourth. And I saw him uh Dallas Stars game here in Abbottzford. Uh Puareier played that game. He's not bad. Not bad. At least from what I saw in the game I watched.
Just just throwing that out there. Um now, do I think they're a playoff team next year? Likely. I would be very surprised if Dallas falls out of the playoffs. Even like worst case scenario, they they trade rope hints to make room and then Robertson signs somewhere else.
They lose hints. They lose Robertson.
They get all these draft picks, but they've lost top players. That just that frees up a bunch of cap space and they can figure things out. I think there'd still be enough of a team here to get them to the playoffs. They just might very well be first round fodder once they get there. Uh the Texas Stars finished with 80 points in 72 games in the AHL this year, and they were 16th of 32 teams in the league. So, right in the middle. They're not currently alive in that playoff hunt, but um you know, while they didn't win the Calder Cup, they had a decent year, and we'll see whether or not this team can remain at the top or near the top next year. Uh things do change. I do feel like Dallas is in a good position to end up contending for top spot in the Central again next year, but we'll see how this off season plays out. Obviously, Jason Robertson's the big name. That's the one that they're that we're all going to be keeping an eye on. There is a chance there's an offer sheet. I' I'd be surprised though only because of how much money it's going to take to pry Robertson away. And if it's a 12 million cap hit, it's there there's definitely some peril with that. But we'll see what happens. Let me know your thoughts in the comment section below. As always, hit like and subscribe in the event you may not have done so already. Thank you guys so much for all your support. It's greatly appreciated. I will talk to you again soon.
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