NQ Day Trading Analysis - My Exact $NQ Trade Plan for GM + 3M Earnings Day! (7/21/2026)

[00:00:31]All right, if we break down here, guys, I'm sure for the cash flow targets. I appreciate you for being here.

[00:00:38]>> I'm short right now.

[00:00:40]>> Target hit. This is what we call a magic hour.

[00:00:44]>> All right, I'm taking this upside. I ahead the momentum to the upside. They had everything aligning live pricing for data. Right >> there.

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[00:05:45]You were born in the crossfire, raised on a rerun lie. told the Jews a Okay, good morning. I just spent like five minutes talking. Oh my goodness, that's crazy. All right, so good morning. Good morning. Everybody's there. You guys can hear me now. Good grief. All right, so check this out.

[00:08:17]I've got a question for you. Like, and this comes from a really, really close friend of mine, and it's something I had to learn, right? I'd rather be accurate than right. What does that mean to you?

[00:08:31]I'd rather be accurate than right.

[00:08:34]Right. I'd rather be accurate than right. What does that mean to you?

[00:08:40]Right.

[00:08:41]It has to do with I won't even tell you. Just tell me what you think it means. What does it mean to you? I'd rather be accurate than right.

[00:08:51]It's a lesson I learned when I learned how to read li a live market.

[00:08:57]Right. And I didn't think everybody has to learn it.

[00:09:05]All right.

[00:09:06]Not your bias. Exactly.

[00:09:10]Be wrong. Small.

[00:09:14]When man once told me power comes from accuracy. Exactly. Accurate accuracy means that on a long run I'm more often right versus wrong. So the lesson I learned, right? And like my buddy focus is the one that put it into words, but I'd rather be accurate than right. And like I learned this reading live price and I even learned this with my workflow and using statistics, right? To be able to not forecast, not predict, right? Because if I'm forecasting and predicting then I have to be right to make money. But to be able to say I am wrong quick and fast and then know adjust and align with what the live market's actually doing.

[00:10:02]Right? So every single day you come up here and you see me pitch two possible scenarios because I don't care if I am right in my analysis. I've got to have a plan in place. So the mo and that's why I identify as so many invalidation points because if one's invalidated it's telling me your prediction bias forecast is wrong and it's time to adjust and I would rather be accurate with my read on price than to be right on my analysis.

[00:10:40]Right? I will take that one on the chin all day long and look like a fool in front of you guys. I say like give me the grace to be a fraud all right because I will adjust right and that's what truly makes a trader is saying I am completely wrong in this and either reset your reset the bleed stop the bleeding reset your edge for a time period or to adjust your edge right I want you to listen to what this guy says and I'll probably get flagged on YouTube so that's okay though we're going to do it anyway way. All right. And this is the ex CEO of Goldman Sachs. Now, I really want you to think about what he's saying and apply that thought process.

[00:11:24]I'd rather be right. I mean, I'd rather be accurate than right. All right, you guys ready?

[00:11:35]>> How far out into the future do you think you can see?

[00:11:38]>> Well, I'm in the risk management business, so I don't take it for granted that I can see behind. I I I I don't think I could see four inches into the future. I'd say that most of my >> But your firm has a reputation of being pretty good at understanding the future and being able to make some analysis as to about what risk to take. Well, I'll confess to you that what I think we aspire to is less foresee the future and more be a great contingency planner because and sometimes if you contingency plan really well and you can respond very fast to what's happening because you thought through all the possibilities, you can get off the mark so quickly it looks like you false started. It looks like you anticipated the start when all you've really done was listen so closely and knew what you were going to do that you got off the mark quickly. I think it's hard enough to I think it's hard enough to predict the present.

[00:12:32]>> You know, think about it perspective.

[00:12:34]It's very hard to step out of your context and see what is happening. I have views about the future, but I'll tell you, we're not in the business. You wouldn't be a very good risk manager if you let what you think was going to happen have too great an influence on what you plan for and protect it against. What we really do is we really contingency plan what might happen, what could happen >> the future. Do you think you can see?

[00:12:59]>> Well, I'm in the risk management business, so I don't take it for granted that I could see behind I I I don't think I could see 4 in into the future.

[00:13:06]I'd say that most of my >> But your firm has a reputation of being pretty good at understanding the future and being able to make some analysis as to about what risk to take. Well, I'll confess to you that what I think we aspire to is less foresee the future and more be a great contingency planner because and sometimes if you contingency plan really well and you can respond very fast to what's happening because you thought through all the possibilities, you can get off the mark so quickly it looks like you false started. It looks like you anticipated the start when all you've really done was listen so closely and knew what you were going to do that you got off the mark quickly. I think it's hard enough to I think it's hard enough to predict the present.

[00:13:53]>> You know, think about it perspective.

[00:13:55]It's very hard to step out of your context and see what is happening. I have views about the future, but I'll tell you, we're not in the business. You wouldn't be a very good risk manager if you let what you think was going to happen have too great an influence on what you plan for and protected against.

[00:14:11]What we really do is we really contingency plan. What might happen?

[00:14:14]What could happen?

[00:14:23]All right. Now, do you did that kind of break it down to why I say I'd rather be accurate than right. Right. And that doesn't mean I'm the most precise person out there, right? That just means I'm quicker to adjust when I'm wrong. All right? So now based off of what he said and that saying what he what you just heard him say, what does this saying mean to you? What thoughts came through your mind when I say I'd rather be accurate than right?

[00:14:55]And how can you adjust that to your trading today?

[00:14:59]And always I mean like everybody wants to talk about smart money and institutional funds. You just heard the CE ex CEO of Goldman Sachs tell you the same thing we do.

[00:15:16]Survive for tomorrow. Yep. The number one crusher of accounts, no matter how good you are, how profitable you are, is the position size per account. Right. your risk per trade will blow you up and not let you survive for tomorrow. That's a thing. Absolutely. The one thing that you can guarantee is the moment you step outside of your risk comfort zone is the moment you go on a consecutive loss period. That's like a no-brainer.

[00:15:42]Let me open my blinds up. It's too dark in here.

[00:15:46]Come on. What do you guys think?

[00:15:50]Jason's the only one talking, right? I'd rather be accurate than right. I'll make you watch the video again. Do we need to watch the video again?

[00:16:01]Go on the facts, not with your gut fill in fills. Right. Absolutely. Dynamic.

[00:16:09]Right. Is it okay to build a plan for one side have build a plan with the invalidation and then if it goes the other way, you have two plans. Plan for the worst case scenario. Honor your invalidations.

[00:16:26]Absolutely.

[00:16:28]All right. Good, good, good stuff. All right, let's start a war game. All right, so how many of you guys watched the range engineering last yesterday at 1500?

[00:16:40][clears throat] Right. Tada.

[00:16:44]Right. So now we know from a candle science approach, we're expecting to get up to this green line at 2780.

[00:16:52]Right. Um now how the morning plays out we'll talk about that but right now we know that we're below NFP Friday below previous month 50 we expect 50% green days 50% red days right which seeing if we can get a quarterly low pull a quarterly pullback I don't think it will happen this month but I definitely think we're in a bearish red month today um as of right now and I think what's going to happen like well statistically what will happen is that we either going to spend August shifting back up or August coming down and wiping out May's lows, right?

[00:17:33]But we will wait for next month to show us hand. The one thing that we can control right now is we know that statistically over on red monthly candles, we like to close above the 30th percent mark of that monthly range. So, we'll keep our eye right here. If we continue going low, that's cool. But we'll keep our eye right here towards the last week of the month. Right here, where on your indicator from the random higher, it says current month 30% bearer, right? All right. So, with that being said, all right, we're going to move on. Right, our candle science is pretty much done. Our targets are up here where the green box is, right? And we'll tie that into the rest of our war game from a weekly approach. From a weekly approach, let me put on indicator. Cool. Cool. Cool. Right. We know. We know right here that Why is this not putting my thing on this? Nope. I don't want that.

[00:18:36]Uh, let me see. Let me fix this real quick. I got the wrong one on obviously.

[00:18:41]There we go. Now we're cooking with Kool-Aid. Right. We know that from a MAE approach, meaning the weekly low of the week could possibly be in. Right? Today will show us if it's the weekly low or the high. But we know by the end of the day more statistically we will have the high of the week or the low of the week.

[00:18:59]So we'll be paying attention to this Sunday price. We've already retraced it for the Monday. That's statistical. And we also know that there is upside movement to be there is off of this 5 EMA off the weekly, right? We know that historically we have hit that 84% of the time over the last 56 weeks, right? So we will be looking to see if we get continuation up today and tomorrow to that 51 basis points. All right, makes sense. All right, so now we're going to move on. God bless it.

[00:19:35]You better come back down here. You you better not go shortf false on me right now. you turd. All right. So, overnight was trending. What does that mean to me? What am I expecting to see?

[00:19:49]Right. I'm expecting to see I don't We already know more than likely that the low the day is in. God bless it. You better come on back down. Come on now. Get back down here.

[00:20:03]All right. So, we know that they bought up Lond Asia. They bought up London, right? So, we're going to come over to our daily profile.

[00:20:13]We went long, true, open out of Asia. We went short, false, broken out of London.

[00:20:20]And then we went short out of New York 1. All right, let me get out of this.

[00:20:28]Right, we can see that there's a 66% probability that we get a reversal, a 33% probability that we get continuation out of this cell of the 7:30 to 8:30, right? H I'm so buttth hurt right now.

[00:20:46]All right.

[00:20:48]So, right. What does that mean? Right. So, there's a 66% chance that we're going to do a price signature like this.

[00:21:01]Means we're going to reverse.

[00:21:05]We're going to break out of the 7:30 to 8:30 range to the downside and we're going to reverse.

[00:21:12]Right? Typically, it happens between 9:30 and 10:15. Right? But there is a place as you can see up with the green that we do it beforehand. And we might be seeing that right now.

[00:21:24]All right.

[00:21:27]We know that there's a 33% chance that we get continuation down.

[00:21:34]Right? And these are the two plans that we have to contingency for. We have to build contingency plans for.

[00:21:41]All right. So, right, we know that this is the higher probability. This is the lower probability. We know that this one can definitely happen. We know that this one definitely can happen. Even though this has a 66% probability and this has a 32% probability, guess what? Live price gets to tell us which one it's going to do.

[00:22:03]we're going to lean heavier on this one, but when live price steps out of out of the gate and says, "Hey, man, we're going to do this one." We're going to plan for that. So, let's plan for it, right? So, first and foremost, we're going to come and see the reasons why we want to do the the the higher probability one. First and foremost, we're going to identify the four steps that we use every day to kind of jump off the gate, right? And those four steps reversals which have already started happening would be this would represent the 9:30 on the one minute get above it. This represents the 9:00 hour.

[00:22:42]So step one get above the 9:30 price on the one minute. Step two get above the 9:00 50% between 9:30 and 10. Step three 10:00 takes out 9:00's high. Step four makes a instat low in Q1 for 10:00. When we see those four steps, it doesn't mean we have to wait for them all to trade.

[00:23:02]But when we do see them, we know that we locked in the major pivot for the morning. However, now we're going to let me stop deleting stuff, right? We're going to see, does it make sense for us to come on back down before we do this, right? And even if we take out this false, then we know we're going to pay attention to this low right here.

[00:23:28]Because if we breach that, the stats below us are back in play. Right? If this is the major pivot, our job is to buy above the 930. Like as long as we're above the 930, we can even swipe below the 930, but our job is to buy towards our candle science 70% probability that we talked about at 1500 yesterday.

[00:23:47]Right? So let's go back to the daily profile and say hey we are doing the higher probability movement right we can see clear as day from a high a day low a day perspective there's a high likelihood that this high of the day is in and then the only problem we have to solve is do we put uh I mean that the low of the day is in and then the only problem that and that happened between the 1800 and 1900 and the only problem that we have to solve today knowing that it's going to a green daily candle, right? Is is it going to put the high day in by 10:45 or end of day?

[00:24:25]Well, if we know it's a green daily candle, then our job besides the 9:30 to 10:00 trade, but all throughout the rest of the day is to be buyers of this market. All right? Um, and that's going to solve this problems you're trading for you. If you just besides the 9:30 to 10, right, which I will take sales out of, right? I have no business selling the market today. I have business to decide when to buy the market, right? So besides the 9:30 to 10 9:30 trade that I typically take, I will take sells and buys out of that. But once that trade is over, my job is to find places to buy.

[00:25:04]Why? Tell me in the chat, why should I just be a buyer only today?

[00:25:11]Doesn't mean I'm going to buy at the highs, but I'm going to be strategic about where I buy.

[00:25:17]Why is this pass the common sense test?

[00:25:22]If we know statistically that the low of the day is in and it's going to be a green daily candle, why should besides the 9:30 to 10:00 trade where I will take the sell, why should we be buyers?

[00:25:36]Yeah, we get it. The low's locked in.

[00:25:38]probabilities are to continue along. And if we the only problem we have to solve today is are we going to put a high a day in by 10:45 or end of day. We know that if we put the high of the day in between the morning session and we just spend the rest of the day buying below the 9:30 or we just range the rest of the day and but we buy below the 9:30 and ride it back up. Right? That's going to put us on the right side. That's going to put us on the right side of, you know, the candle. So, we can range or we can trend for the rest of the day.

[00:26:12]But we know that either way, we're just going to be strategic with where we buy, right? So, we know now end of day high of day can come between 10:30 and 1500, 1,600.

[00:26:27]Our mode to median for our high of the day is between 6 and the drop off, we're going to push it here, is 1%.

[00:26:35]Now, the cool thing about what we've done is we've already done that. We've already moved 1%. So, we're we know that we have to go 6 duh one 1%.

[00:26:50]Duh. And we're going to say our high day comes between 10:45 and 1600. We're not going to put a time frame on it because it's not as obvious. And we can see we're above that right here, right now.

[00:27:00]Right. So, we need to go into anomaly land for our high of the day. We know we're at 1.49% off of Globe Exin right now. And that's going to put us right here.

[00:27:11]Right here.

[00:27:14]Right. So, we know that we got a little bit further before we go into anomaly land for the long false or the short false. So, we know when we buy the market, we are overextended the moment we go long short false. And we have to expect for it to continue to suck back into the range after making new highs.

[00:27:35]Does that make sense? We know that the daily distribution and the high of the day zone a 10day median range is only 150 hand or yeah 140 something handles away from being max extended from the 10day median range. So now we're starting to define what this will actually look like. All right. So we know that if we bridge this high, we can't get a true scenario, right?

[00:28:03]But we do know we can't get continuation buys up, right? We know that this right here is our statistical target. 70% probability, 50 and 30% probability for the rest of the day daily candle.

[00:28:19]Right? So now we know that we need to find where we're going to sell to. Below us we have midnight.

[00:28:26]We have previous day mid and P12. Right way below us we have settlement Asia OU and GlobeEx open soul open. So now what we're going to do is we are going to put probabilities on those to see if the 930 offer sells to us. If the 930 offer sells right what we're going to sell to. So we need to get a probability for midnight.

[00:28:50]We need to get a probability for P12 mid. We need to get a probability for settlement globics and Asia OU.

[00:28:58]Right? We know that this is the lower probability target and this P12 low should hold because the low of the day is in or statistically it's in doesn't mean like it's always has to hold. We can see that Asia OU has a 78% probability with m the secondary mode happening at 9:30 to 9:45. But majority of the data taking that out between 2:30 and 4:30 in the morning.

[00:29:25]Right now, we can see that P12 low has only a 53% probability of getting hit.

[00:29:31]And if it's going to get hit, it should happen between 9:30 and 9:45, meaning we sell so fast and powerful that it'll be too fast to get in position. But this P12 mid is interesting. It's got a 90% probability with the primary time happening at 8:30 or 9:30. Well, we know we didn't hit it between 8:30 and 8:45.

[00:29:52]So, the only other time that we can expect it to hit is 9:45, right? So, that's the only reason I would take sells out of the 9:30 is to capture that P12 mid. After that, I'm back to buying dips.

[00:30:06]Right? We can see that GlobeEx open settlement all have very low probability. That also says this is not of interest. Asia OU new low of the day settlement in Globeex is not interesting to us. The only thing that's interesting to us for cells is going to be this midnight which has a 88% probability with the mode being between 9:30 and 9:45. So now we have two 90% targets midnight and P12 mid. That tells us that we can sell to it. But I don't want to just sell to it. I want price to go to it and for me to find a buying opportunity. So, the trade plan today for me is going to be firecracker this bad boy down. I'm going to take sells with five micros only because it's the lower probability. I'm expecting it to be a green candle and I know a new high day is expected. Right? So, unless we turn around and I have to consider a short true, right? I'm going to take sells off of five micros. Cover the queen 10 basis points off of entry.

[00:31:11]Yes, that's right. I will take three of them off at 10 basis points. Now I'm in a risk-free trade. I will run one down to midnight open and one down to P12 mid. And I won't have any pressure on me because it's a lower position size. But as we know, there's plenty of levers that you have to pull and push throughout the day with your trade plan since the sells are the lower probability. I'm going to sell towards those, but I'm going to do it with a reduced position sizing. Right now, if we can still get a short true, which is perfectly fine with me, like once we get to these levels, right, I will pay attention. Do we rotate back up? Do we rotate back up? Right? And I will try to engage with longs, right? 15 micros, right? My queen gets covered 10 basis points, so I take eight off, right? Then I will use a gunship cash flow target to the upside, which let me put that on.

[00:32:09]Right? Either Q1 break or we'll just do Q1 break for now.

[00:32:17]I will use the 930 50th percentile cash flow target off the gunship to take cash flow number two of five micros and then I will let the rest of them the rest of the three run for the rest of the day if I get a good position for those end of day high days right if I get a good place to add to that I will but that's too subjective I mean that's too subjective and discretionary for me to brief her right that would be like a Q1 low a false05 breakout to the downside going back up, right? The quarters or the hourly probability flag still flipping up a line signature up. All right, so that's my trade plan for today.

[00:33:00]It's a little bit, believe it or not, the higher probable trade is the sells towards midnight open right now and the P12 mid. After that, I will engage with longs because there is plenty of edge to have the high of the day coming up here.

[00:33:16]So that is my trade plan. So now I'm going to ask you again, right?

[00:33:23]What does it mean to be? Oh yeah, let me brief where we know that the fourstep reversal be used for this four-step continuation is for this, right? For this, right? So it sells to the downside, right? Do we get below 40 basis points off of the 6ix9ine box which is right here? Do we get below 50th percentile of the 7:30 to 8:30 MF which is right here. So we know that we can come into this zone, right?

[00:34:14]But we cannot come into this zone.

[00:34:16]Meaning when I say cannot, I mean I probably shouldn't say cannot. We can definitely come into here. I'll be paying attention to the P12 mid, right?

[00:34:24]Do we bounce? We can swipe below it. We can look below advertise and bounce up.

[00:34:30]I will take that trade long. However, like right here around the 50th percent and this P12 mid is where my eyes need to be open and I need to be looking for my 10 o'clock the lack of four step reversal and the lack of a reversal back up because if we start breaching this area right here where the P12 mid is and previous day mid is I'm expecting a short true and then I will e I will just stop trading for the day because the sells are not the higher probability even if it is a short true for me. The only sells I will take is out of 9:30 to come to midnight open in P12 mid, but nothing below that. It's not my job to take cells. All right. So now I ask you again, what does it mean?

[00:35:14]Why is it so important to think in your brain, I'd rather be accurate than right? And then while we do that, I'm going to make you watch the video one more time because it's that damn good.

[00:35:27]How far out into the future do you think you can see?

[00:35:30]>> Well, I'm in the risk management business, so I don't take it for granted that I can see behind I I I don't think I can see four inches into the future.

[00:35:38]I'd say that most of my >> But your firm has a reputation of being pretty good at understanding the future and being able to make some analysis as to about what risk to take. Well, I'll confess to you that what I think we aspire to is less foresee the future and more be a great contingency planner because and sometimes if you contingency plan really well and you can respond very fast to what's happening because you thought through all the possibilities, you can get off the mark so quickly it looks like you false started. It looks like you anticipated the start when all you've really done was listen so closely and knew what you were going to do that you got off the mark quickly. I think it's hard enough to I think it's hard enough to predict the present.

[00:36:25]>> You know, think about it perspective.

[00:36:26]It's very hard to step out of your context and see what is happening. I have views about the future, but I'll tell you, we're not in the business. You wouldn't be a very good risk manager if you let what you think was going to happen have too great an influence on what you plan for and protect it against. What we really do is we really contingency plan. What might happen?

[00:36:46]What could happen?

[00:36:54]All right, ladies and gentlemen, if anybody knows how to get this link off of YouTube so I can play it right, or the video, right, that would be much viewed. That'd be awesome. Hit me up in the Discord if you know how to get that video recorded. So, it's just the downloaded video on my computer. And more than likely, because I played off of another YouTube click, we'll be banned and cancelled. You're welcome.

[00:37:19]Well, you can't Okay, so we cannot plan We cannot plan for every possibility, right? Especially on the one minute, the five minute, and the 15 minute, right?

[00:37:30]Yes. Right. because there are so many possibilities. But what you can plan for is like the daily classifications. We know doing the RTH there's only four possible daily classifications that you can actually do. So your job is to find what signatures and invalidations breach the other ones. Does that make sense, Carlos Ramirez Tra? Absolutely.

[00:37:59]Absolutely. And when you're wrong, which you will be. I'm wrong about 20 times a day, right? Adjust.

[00:38:07]Right? Because remember, we're not in the business of being right. We're in the business of being accurate with our read of the market. And the most important thing you can learn, and most people get this wrong as a statistical based trader, is the live price read, right? The live price read of what the market is actually doing is more important than what the statistics tell you. The statistics to give you the ability to contingency plan what the live price is doing so you can adjust and go from there. Does this make sense?

[00:38:43]You've got to be able to read a market because if you're just a statistical based trader, you might as well just get a computer, a robot, a bop algo to trade for you and remove all human slippage. If you're going to play manually, you better not learn how to read a live market because that's the most important part. All right, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes my war game for today. You got the trade plan and now let's get it later. All right, I got to do this one thing. They want me to do this. I got to end it like this.

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