Crypto STORM Coming Soon? ($BTC Headed Lower!)

Added: 2026-06-01

[00:00:01]Biggest buyer of Bitcoin could be setting up to sell Bitcoin. We're going to talk about that story here. It's actually breaking news. We're going to also talk about a development in Iran, as well as with the Clarity Act, and take a look at an updated spot Bitcoin ETF update. Now, thank you so much for joining this video here. Smash the like button, hit subscribe, and you are locked into the Crypto Morning Signals with me, Taylor.

[00:00:30]Now, you know, as you all know, I went to Quebec recently, had a great time on vacation, but unfortunately, I got sick.

[00:00:36]So, yesterday I didn't do a video.

[00:00:38]I am much better. Feeling feeling much very much better. I'm still taking it easy, cuz Grok is saying that I, you know, your body is still trying to overcome uh the sickness even the day after you're starting to feel better.

[00:00:49]But, thank you so much for your prayers.

[00:00:51]Praise God, I am healed, and it didn't escalate into some kind of worse sickness. So, thank you all so much for your prayers. Let's go ahead and get on into the morning sentiment.

[00:01:03]Lower looks likely. That's what is coming across my tape today. That's what it seems like we can distill the sentiment into. Extreme fear, 23 out of 100. Hanging out in extreme back in extreme fear. Not where I thought we would be, but here we are in extreme fear. Not getting a rate cut in June, but of course, that press briefing from incoming Fed chair, now confirmed Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, of course, going to be very illuminating and could potentially be a big bullish catalyst in June. Clarity Act, 57.5% chance of passing as of this morning.

[00:01:40]Let's get a quick updated flash on that.

[00:01:42]So, 56% is the is the live quote on that spread.

[00:01:47]Clarity Act signed into law on 4/26.

[00:01:50]Uh if you guys don't know, this is Polymarket. There's other sites like this. People can bet. It's kind of like Las Vegas. This is establishes the odds of of an outcome.

[00:01:59]Um and Polymarket's been absolutely lethally accurate on many, many things.

[00:02:03]So, 57% >> [clears throat] >> 56 is uh pretty good. That's a that's a nice number. I like that number as a crypto investor.

[00:02:12]Major focus, we have no trust or and guarantees or words, only actions are the measures. No action will be taken before the other side acts. Uh this is Iran's um Ghalibaf.

[00:02:27]No idea how to pronounce that, but folks, I have a special treat for us today cuz I haven't done a ton of deep analysis of this, but I had Grok spin up who the heck is running Iran? Is it this guy? Is it Iran's Ghalibaf? Let's take a look here. Uh so, this is the hierarchy of the Iranian leadership. Going to go through this quick cuz some of you guys don't care. Some of you guys already know. Uh but let's go through this quickly. So, supreme leader, head of state, ultimate authority.

[00:02:54]Uh I'm not going to try to pronounce these names. MK, okay, this is Khamenei.

[00:02:57]This is the son of uh the deceased father, the previous supreme leader of Iran, okay?

[00:03:04]His role uh lar- his role in the US negotiations largely behind the scenes bigger head so far low prof- no low profile, okay? So, we move on, right?

[00:03:12]He's probably influencing the these next guys, but who knows how much that that influence is really coming through. Um okay, president, head of government, executive branch.

[00:03:25]This is MP. Those Those are his initials. Uh reformist leaning presidential leaning president elected in 2024. So, reformist leaning, right?

[00:03:35]So, if I'm the current White House this is probably my guy. This is probably the guy that I want to be in power. His role uh in US negotiations, public face for de-escalation appeals, has pushed for diplomacy and direct talks, but holds limited real power on security issues. There you go. So, this is When we talk about good cop, bad cop, this is probably the good cop. So, this is MP. You Those are the initials you can look for uh from that guy. All right. Next one, speaker of parliament. And this is the guy that we just heard from today. He said this, and I haven't even analyzed this statement yet, but this I'm just going through who these people are and who they aren't. Um Mohammad BG, okay?

[00:04:19]Again, we're sticking to uh we're sticking to um just letters cuz I don't know I'm not going to try to pronounce these names.

[00:04:26]Former IRGC commander, okay? So, that's a signal. If I'm the White House, this is probably not my guy. This is not the guy that I want to be negotiating with.

[00:04:36]Um he see he was the mayor of Tehran, the capital of Iran, and is a pragmatic hardliner, okay? So, pragmatic kind of to me reads he's made some concessions, he's been somewhat reasonable in the past, but he's also a hardliner. Um so, he's made concessions when he's needed to, when it's convenient, when it benefits him, um but he's a hardliner, okay? Role in US negotiations, prominent interlocutor, led uh led or participated in key contacts and talks with the US side, including indirect direct channels, seen by many in Washington as a potential pragmatic partner, okay? So, that that last bit kind of shifts my connotation of this guy overall, but let's keep moving. Foreign minister uh Abbas A, experienced diplomat, role in US negotiations. He handles technical indirect talks, often via Oman, represents the government in formal channels, but strategy is coordinated higher up. Okay, so he's he's important, but he's not the ones calling the shots. IRGC commander, military security leadership, AV Ahmad uh Ahmad V, and figures like um Mohammad BZ hardline military commanders, role in US negotiations limited role focus on hard power and enforcement. All right, these are the military guys. So so you see the the kind of the top the top three. You got this guy who's technically he's kind of like the cultural leader.

[00:06:02]Who knows how this family got in power.

[00:06:06]I'm sure you can find out, but you know, it looks like you know, he's not playing a very active role. Okay, whereas the president you'd have to assume there's some sort of diplomatic uh democratic process for him to become uh in the in the in the spot that he's in and then this guy here speaker of parliament same thing. Although he's a former IRGC commander. So you know, if you're a member of the of the Iranian uh guard uh you know, uh former or current you have to you have to imagine that the that the uh you don't really want to work with America. You're not very sympathetic to what America wants.

[00:06:45]Right? America is your enemy if you're if you're kind of in the IRGC or uh or were in the IRGC. That's at least my understanding. Perhaps you disagree. Let me know in the comments. All right, but that's that's just a quick little hip pocket lesson there. I learned probably as much as you did there cuz I'm not I haven't taken the time to really understand who these people are. I see them tweet often and I see you know, their quotation often and it's nice to put a face to the name. Okay?

[00:07:12]That's about it. I I don't know anything more. I don't have any special insight on these guys other than what I just brought to you. So let's go back to the statement here. And just for reference this is from this gentleman here. Uh Mohammad BG. Okay? So this is an interesting uh quotation here because he says, "We have no trust in guarantees or words. Only actions are the measures. No action will be taken before the other side acts." Okay, so remember Iran has very little leverage for my perspective.

[00:07:41]Perhaps you disagree, but they do have some leverage, which is they can just not quit. They can just, you know, hold on and just not quit and refuse to let the Strait of Hormuz open, uh you know, and and and do those types of things. So, for him to say this kind of signals to me that they're done talking, right?

[00:07:58]Which is not a good sign. That they're they're really done with the talking phase, uh because the talking phase has only resulted in uh things that are counter to the Iran side's interest, like, you know, uh an attempt to block the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, right? So, uh Iran's doing a thing that's unfavorable and our US is kind of doing this passive thing to try to cure that. So, that that non-kinetic, diplomatic, weird communication, they don't like that.

[00:08:27]They're tired of that kind of stuff.

[00:08:29]They're also tired of, "Hey, we wrote up a deal.

[00:08:31]Here's the deal. Agree to it or not."

[00:08:34]They've done that like, what, like 10 times at this point? But, because the Iranian side, you know, they don't seem to understand that the the uh nuclear enrichment part, the uranium enrichment part needs to be a part of the deal, they keep have they keep speaking past each other. The US side is like, "It's unacceptable." The Iranian side is like, "We're not at the point where we want to talk about enrichment yet. We just want to get a ceasefire, right?" So, these these sides are not meeting from a talking standpoint, okay?

[00:09:02]So, when you hear, "Only actions are the measure," that means two things to me.

[00:09:07]Is that that the the speaker of the house we just talked about, uh Mohammad BG, he is looking for two things in in the way that I'm reading this, right?

[00:09:18]Sanctions relief or kinetic warfare.

[00:09:21]Return to kinetic warfare. The United States is, you know, objectively prepared to completely dominate Iran if they chose if United States chose to do that, but there's a big reason not to do that, because if you deploy a bunch of ground troops, you now push out the timeline of the conclusion of this conflict much further into the future, more than likely.

[00:09:45]And if you've got the midterms coming up, it's political uh silliness to try to think that you can do that, okay?

[00:09:52]So, that's another maybe a leverage point for Iran, okay? So, that's that's number one. Uh that's not talking, that's kinetic warfare, and we've seen little spikes of that, right? But then there's also this other problem that Donald Trump has, President Trump, is if he if he has prolonged warfare, that could be interpreted by the United States Democrats as war, right? And then the time can start the clock can start ticking down to uh after a certain amount of period, I think it's like 60 30 60 or 90 days, I can't remember, 60 days, I think.

[00:10:27]Then the the Senate can vote to show that the United States is there that President Trump is violating the War Powers Act. And then he he would have to withdraw, and he would lose autonomy over the military in some some way, right?

[00:10:44]Um so, Iran knows that as well. So, when you have these spikes of kinetic warfare, they begin and they end, and then the president the White House is very careful to document that those skirmishes, right, those periods of kinetic warfare as defensive, as reactive, to not make it seem like they're in war.

[00:11:02]So, all these traditional definitions of of the Geneva Convention and the US War Powers Act are really being stretched to their limits.

[00:11:11]So, that's the first piece.

[00:11:13]No more talking, we want to either fight or we want sanctions relief.

[00:11:18]And I probably that's probably the simplest way to understand this.

[00:11:21]Um so, that's where the Iran conflict is now, and there's a deal for a 60-day ceasefire that's essentially on the you know President Trump's desk, and he has to uh he has to sign that. Um but it just seems like to me that there's a reason that President Donald Trump doesn't want to sign that ceasefire yet. And maybe it's because when you sign the ceasefire, then the clock starts to when, you know, that 60 day ends. So, it's actually a little bit in his interest to wait as long as possible, sign the ceasefire, because then you have a longer duration of peace.

[00:11:57]Especially during the FIFA World Cup that's coming up, right? That's a big It's taking place in North America.

[00:12:03]Mostly in the United States.

[00:12:05]So, maybe there's some bread and circuses strategy there. Um but overall, this is very very I've I've said a lot of things that probably make sense.

[00:12:15]I have low confidence in everything that I've said. It is purely speculation.

[00:12:20]It's very difficult to interpret what's going on here.

[00:12:23]Um so, again, again, as we do have so many times, we turn to the crude markets.

[00:12:31]The oil markets to tell us what is going on here. And the And the bright The bright side of all this is that oil is continuing lower. It has actually broken down the midline of the Bollinger Band here for the weekly.

[00:12:46]Um so, that's great. Yesterday had some red can Yeah, had a red candle, and today we're making continued progress on that red candle. Price action uh below 95 is positive, constructive for markets, and inflation we we can start to assume that inflation isn't going to be as bad as some of the worst estimates that have been given.

[00:13:07]Okay.

[00:13:08]That's Iran. That's oil.

[00:13:10]Things on paper, things on in the market the are actually looking somewhat optimistic.

[00:13:16]President Donald Trump doesn't necessarily have the incentives to give the Iranians what they want yet, either the ceasefire or the or the uh sanctions relief.

[00:13:28]But he also doesn't want to go back into war, right? So, that is the definition of a stalemate. Now, it's a stalemate that it's not exactly clear who is really winning in the stalemate side. Is Iran winning cuz they have time to potentially import a bunch of maybe weapons and restock and get food um for their civilian, their military, and their law enforcement, right? Is that a Is it Is this Is this a lull period more of a win for the US or for Iran? It's that part that's not clear.

[00:13:56]So, um that's that's really a big gap in understanding as well.

[00:14:01]But, overall, I would say it's This week has probably trended a little bit more op Not Not a little bit, probably trended solidly optimistic even though there's been fits and starts of Oh, wait, this seems bad.

[00:14:13]You know, the these sides aren't getting along. Missiles are flying again.

[00:14:17]But, at the end of the day, I would say this week has actually been a tick in a positive direction towards the war ending, right? All right.

[00:14:27]Maybe you disagree with me. Let me know in the chat. I'm doing the best I can here trying to interpret this stuff.

[00:14:31]We're in the middle of the fog of war.

[00:14:33]It is hard.

[00:14:34]Ultimately, again, I have a low confidence rating in everything that I my analysis of Iran because I'm just, you know, I'm in I'm in New England. I'm on the East Coast of the United States.

[00:14:43]I can't I'm not there. I'm not, you know, on a dinghy in the Strait of Hormuz analyzing this stuff.

[00:14:50]I'm doing the best I can. All right, 2.8 billion Bitcoin ETF net outflows. Before we get to the net outflows, let's get to the breaking news here.

[00:14:58]Uh Strategy deposited 411 Bitcoin worth 30 million onto Coinbase Prime. Whoa.

[00:15:08]Holy smokes, that means raising uh sell speculation, I should say.

[00:15:15]So, what do we do with this information?

[00:15:16]Well, I'll interpret it here for you.

[00:15:21]Cost of capital. We went through this episode not last week, but 2 weeks ago.

[00:15:26]MicroStrategy came out and said to in their quarterly earnings report, there's a there's a world where we might sell Bitcoin.

[00:15:33]Because it's cheaper to raise capital that way.

[00:15:39]But the conclusion of that whole news cycle, because everybody freaked out, oh, Michael Saylor said he never sell Bitcoin.

[00:15:46]The conclusion of that news cycle, we had the you know, you had the initial statement, then you had all the critics jumping on top of Michael Saylor. And then you had people like me who was like, well, hold on. This is a smart guy.

[00:15:57]You know, do we dispense with him altogether and say, oh, he's anti-Bitcoin, blah, blah, blah, blah.

[00:16:01]Obviously no, there has to be some calm in the storm of of the news cycle and figure out, okay, what is actually going on here? Of course, there's a a shiny pearl of truth to be found. And that shiny pearl of truth is a publicly traded corporation is much more complicated than a individual's finances. And there's a dynamic called the cost of capital, which makes it to where selling Bitcoin could actually be beneficial to the company, specifically the shareholders of the common stock, MSTR ticker, which is the which is the stock for strategy, okay?

[00:16:38]So, we're in a world now where they might be activating that disclosure that they gave in the quarterly earnings and they're selling Bitcoin.

[00:16:45]But the conclusion of that whole news cycle is that they are net buyers of Bitcoin and that they will never and presumably they will never be net sellers of Bitcoin. So, they might sell Bitcoin and not make a net sell. What does that mean? They might So, that means basically they might buy 30, let's say, uh they might buy 30,000 Bitcoin in a month.

[00:17:10]They might buy 3,000 Bitcoin in a month, but they sell 20, right? So, technically they've sold Bitcoin, right? But, they've still retained 2,000 2,900 and what did I say? 80? Whatever. So, they But, they're net buyers of Bitcoin.

[00:17:27]Yeah, they sold some Bitcoin, but they're net buyers. Why would they sell any Bitcoin at all? That's where it starts to get in the complicated corporate finance, which distills down to a word you can go search, which is cost of capital. Go check it out. Let me know what you think.

[00:17:41]It To me, it makes all the sense in the world. I'm not intimidated by this. I'm not selling Bitcoin. I'm not buying MSTR, I will say.

[00:17:48]I was a long-term holder of MSTR.

[00:17:50]That'll be a whole 'nother episode, if you guys are interested.

[00:17:53]Um So, anyway. All right, moving along.

[00:17:56]That breaking news is uh not scaring me at all. This is also a very small number.

[00:18:03]30 million might be a big number to you and me, but to MicroStrategy, that's not a big number.

[00:18:08]Uh all right.

[00:18:10]Continuing on. So, 2.8 billion Bitcoin ETF net outflows, nine-day streak. So, let's take a look at it here, folks.

[00:18:17]This is what the ETF spot Bitcoin looks like. So, we have had nine days of outflows. You can see here these red histograms.

[00:18:26]Um this follows a pretty healthy clustering of green histograms. So, the highest of which was 663 million.

[00:18:35]You had another one here, 629 million.

[00:18:39]But, now we've gotten some big sell-offs. We had a day of 733 million uh uh two days ago. So, that would have been like what? Wednesday?

[00:18:49]And then [snorts] you had another another sell-off here of 648 million.

[00:18:55]All right.

[00:18:56]So, that's not great, right? What does that mean? What does that mean to me? If we If we go back and we look at the whole story of Bitcoin here, which I like to show you guys as often as possible, cuz it's very clarifying, right? We We We had a bear market. Oh.

[00:19:14]Here I am.

[00:19:16]We had a bear market in 2023, right? I'm not going to go as far back as to the previous bull market. We have a Okay, I will.

[00:19:23]We had a bull market in 2021 that got up as high as 69,000, okay? And a little bit of change. But then, we had a bear market where Bitcoin then flushed all the way down to 15,700 and some change, okay?

[00:19:37]Then, we climbed out of that bear market and got all the way up to uh 73,000 and then found a uh support here at uh functionally 50,000. And then, we climbed all the way to 126,000. And during this time, you had institutions basically coming in and starting to issue ETFs. That started here with BlackRock started its Bitcoin ETF of the spot variety.

[00:20:04]Okay? So, these spot inflows outflows right? This goes back a lot further than what I was showing.

[00:20:12]Um but this is this is the full picture since the beginning of 2024.

[00:20:17]Okay, it was literally January 10th is when they started. So, we've had uh two and almost a half years of analysis of this, okay?

[00:20:28]So, now let's come back to the present.

[00:20:30]People bought Bitcoin all through here since 2024.

[00:20:35]And you can make the argument that they were uh you know, they're buying into strength, right? And then, we had a dump here for Bitcoin. So, now the question is on the mind of the average Bitcoin holder, average is is key, not whale, but also not small. Right? The average Bitcoin holder which includes people who have uh the Bitcoin ETFs, in my opinion, maybe you don't consider them to be Bitcoin holders.

[00:21:01]But the average thought is, is this thing going to go lower?

[00:21:05]Right? And that changes week to week.

[00:21:08]that changes day to day because sometimes the thought is man, is this thing going to go higher?

[00:21:13]Should I buy now? Right? Should I buy the dip, which is the meme on Twitter and whatever.

[00:21:19]Um or should I should I be should I have sold my Bitcoin here at 82 because I bought it at 102 back here.

[00:21:29]Should I go ahead and get out cuz this thing's just going to go do uh what it did back here where it had where Bitcoin had a 77% correction. Is that what I'm in here for? A 77% correction that would bring Bitcoin all the way down to 27,000, right? So, a lot of people are thinking that. They're thinking, man, I got into this, my nephew talked in me into it, my boss, whatever. These guys made a lot of money at some point in crypto. They talked me into buying Bitcoin, but I don't understand it. And now it's going down and so there's a lot of those people, right?

[00:22:01]Now, you and I, crypto investors, we know that you want to buy Bitcoin.

[00:22:04]Bitcoin is what you want to buy, right?

[00:22:06]You don't want to sell Bitcoin.

[00:22:08]Um and you definitely want to be a net buyer of Bitcoin into the future.

[00:22:12]So, that brings us to the present, right? We have an uptrending line of support that's right here. And this is going to be a pretty big line in the sand in my opinion, right? Because what is the market doing right now?

[00:22:23]For for smart crypto investors, the market Bitcoin is looking for a floor.

[00:22:29]Um and uh that preferably that floor would be above this previous low back here at 60,000, right? We want the low to be in my opinion, I want the low to be right here on this uptrending line of support.

[00:22:43]Why? Because there's a lot of smart money out there that can clearly see this uptrending line of support. And they would say, "Hmm, I think we're going to find support there." And then if it does, that confirms that they understand Bitcoin price action.

[00:22:55]And then they feel more confident, they take a position.

[00:22:59]But if we slice down below this and find support here at 69, I don't think that's that much worse, but it just gives it gives smart money and and bigger institutional money a little bit less certainty of what's happening with Bitcoin's price action, right?

[00:23:14]Um and then, you know, in a in a in a worse in a more worst-case scenario coming down to 61 and maybe even below.

[00:23:21]Now, Tim, my my partner at TIE Trading Group does think that that's where we're going to go where we're going to go.

[00:23:28]We're going to come down here and come down to some of these lower levels, um similarly to to in the bear market back here, where we spent some time going lower, lower, lower, right? And that's certainly possible. Um there's a world where we wake up in the end of July or mid-August and we're, you know, we're somewhere down here.

[00:23:49]48 or sub-60 or something like this.

[00:23:52]That is possible. I'm not here to tell you that that's impossible. It absolutely is possible.

[00:23:58]Um but I I don't think that that's what's that's what's coming. I think we find support higher than here, which is summarized well in I think that the bottom is in. We could go match that bottom, but I don't think we go lower uh than than 59, nine, right? That's my perspective. That's my call.

[00:24:17]Um but to be honest with you, I'm a little bit surprised that we went back sub-75.

[00:24:23]Okay. So, we're looking for marginal buyers. We're looking for folks who haven't bought or are looking to buy more. We're looking for more buyers to come in. And when you get headlines like this, it makes you think it makes money think, "Man, this thing's going to go lower because there's less buyers coming in.

[00:24:41]Hey, the biggest buyer of Bitcoin is considering selling."

[00:24:45]Now, we don't know why they're sending that Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime. Who knows? Maybe they're going to do a leverage long, right?

[00:24:52]But, >> [snorts] >> um there's a little bit of a conspiracy here that I would that I would give a bit of credence to, which is if I'm strategy and my whole business model is I want to accumulate Bitcoin, it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world for me to kind of scare the market a little bit and and drop all the weak hands that are going to sell anyway at some point. Go ahead and drop them out now.

[00:25:14]Right? Have them go ahead and sell so that we can slice through that uptrending line of support. Screw the smart money. They're going to buy when they buy. Smart money's just going to buy the best asset in the long term regardless because they're smart.

[00:25:27]But the the short in the short term, there's a lot of people and I would say a lot less than in previous bull markets.

[00:25:34]Uh but there's a lot of like dumb money that bought in here on these runs up for Bitcoin.

[00:25:40]Right? Their their buddy told them, "Hey, dude, I just made some money in in Bitcoin. You should go buy." And then they buy it, but they don't know anything about what they're buying.

[00:25:48]They're just buying it with the thinking that they're going to be a millionaire the next day. That's paper hands, right?

[00:25:53]There's also hedge funds that are trading this. They bought here with only the intention to sell here or sell here, right? And we haven't gotten there yet.

[00:26:02]But I think that my my if I'm Michael Saylor, it's not necessarily uh completely crazy for me to kind of take some steps or at least know when I'm a major a major player a major player at the table going to sell, right? So, that gives me a bit of insight into we're in a cycle where the big boys they're going to play along with each other and they're get this is kind of just a moment to be bearish, right? To do bearish things because you can you can get lower prices for for buying Bitcoin. Now, I think if I'm Michael Saylor, I also don't want to see I don't want to see Bitcoin come down this low. Right? Because then we see then then we're fighting against these these major levels of support where these candles closed here uh above above 65. I don't want Bitcoin to really spend too much time down in this zone, right? If I'm Michael Saylor, if I'm someone who gets his belly full of Bitcoin through through buying and then wants to see it resume back up, right? So, that's kind of the the the psychology for Bitcoin at this point in time. Sui [snorts] back online after 6 hours of network outage, Treasury Secretary Besson says to get the Clarity Act on.

[00:27:17]Bullish vibes, we've got a lot of them here as we wrap up. Texas announces the creation of the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Advisory Committee. That's great, right? So, that makes me think, hey, maybe this thing isn't going to zero. Maybe, you know, the sellers that are selling here are selling because they're because they're dumb, right? Or they're just taking profit cuz all they were ever was all they ever were doing was just trading.

[00:27:41]Okay.

[00:27:42]Or they don't understand investing and they got over leveraged, right? And they, you know, they have they don't have they don't have enough money to make their rent payment or something.

[00:27:50]So, they're having to sell Bitcoin, right? So, that's that's another reason why someone might sell at this point in time.

[00:27:56]Okay, CEO of Nasdaq CEO of NYSE, excuse me, said Hyperlink is all Hyperliquid is already bigger than Nasdaq and called it a true DeFi exchange.

[00:28:08]Hyperliquid killing it.

[00:28:11]Hard to overstate that. CME Group launches 24/7 crypto trading. This is something we've been anticipating for a while. It's been in our dated catalysts.

[00:28:21]This could potentially be what unleashes a bit of the volatility.

[00:28:27]Does that volatility necessarily have to be to the downside? No.

[00:28:31]We'll see.

[00:28:32]Standard Chartered reaffirms 40,000 price prediction for Ethereum, price target I should say. Current valuation does not reflect network outage, they claim, and DeFi activity and RWA growth.

[00:28:43]Japan was up 2.5% yesterday. Um Hong Kong closed up and uh the Shanghai closed down. So, very interesting uh lumping of data today to analyze with the We looked at the ETFs. We did a quite a bit of time on Iran stuff and um and then we looked at the breaking news there from crypt from um strategy moving Bitcoin to the Coinbase exchange. Now, we may make up wake up tomorrow or we may wake up this time next week and there's no headlines that that strategy sold, right? There's There's what's called called online on-chain analysts that can kind of know what is happening behind the scenes because uh these things are not uh the crypto economy is not anonymous, most of it, especially Bitcoin. So, we can kind of know who's doing what with some level of certainty. There's a There's a world where next Friday, this time next week, uh we wake up and strategy didn't sell anything, right?

[00:29:43]They just moved some money and people move money all the time for whatever reason.

[00:29:48]Um So, that's also something to take into consideration. There's no guarantee that they're actually selling here. Now, I think there's probably a good chance that they are selling because of that cost of capital that I brought up um earlier.

[00:30:01]But um yeah.

[00:30:03]All right, folks. 30 minutes, we did 30 minutes.

[00:30:06]I think I'm going to leave it till next week to talk about uh the wins that we've had recently.

[00:30:13]Um but I'll just give you guys a quick flash. I won't give you the now analysis. This is the These are the pickups that I had and I dropped in the Discord on the 22nd.

[00:30:22]Okay? I had bought them, I think, the day before, the 21st. But a lot of this AI compute stocks, this section here has really been the winners. I don't know if they're going to continue to win, um but the Discord knew about it and they uh hopefully have made some money off of these. These are stocks, so this is not financial advice.

[00:30:40]Um the ones that haven't really popped yet, which I still think are are good to consider getting in on, is OKLO, Oaklo, and then uh FLNC, right?

[00:30:51]These are energy providers for the AI the AI stuff. Um, so the quantum stocks have done well. I think IBM is popping again today, which is interesting. Yeah, the markets are open. So, IBM's up another 7.6% since the US president said that they were going to be uh writing a two billion-dollar check to IBM for their quantum quantum stuff.

[00:31:17]So, that's cool.

[00:31:18]Um, hopefully you guys are getting in on this kind of stuff when I tell you, hopefully you're getting in and considering you're getting into the mindset of considering buying them. Have to give these disclaimers when they're stocks. Stocks are different from crypto cuz crypto is not regulated yet until the Clarity Act passes.

[00:31:37]Uh, let's see here.

[00:31:39]Injective is up almost 14%. That's nice to see. I'm not touching this one though. I don't think Injective has the the attention of the uh in uh the institutions. However, I will say this is a nice rounded bottom there for Injective.

[00:31:53]So, as a trade, that one was kind of screaming.

[00:31:58]Uh, all right. So much more that I could talk about, folks. IGV, keep an eye on this one cuz this is something that Bitcoin's highly correlated with.

[00:32:06]I'll show you here very quickly. Man, I'm really going overtime here. Uh, and and that correlation is being lost right this second, which is super interesting. But, you can see how tightly correlated Bitcoin is with this SaaS ETF.

[00:32:21]So, Bitcoin zagging while this ETF is zigging. I've got the one-to-one here. This is Bitcoin over IGV right here. Oh, and as you can see, >> [clears throat] >> Bitcoin right now is giving up the bottom of this range to IGV. Now, it had it had absolutely uh gotten a higher high here against IGV, which was nice to see. Now, we're seeing a lower low. So, it's like I don't even I guess that's a megaphone pattern kind of like this.

[00:32:53]Um now, this isn't something that any anybody's really trading. This is just a kind of a way to watch um how is Bitcoin trading against something that it's highly correlated with.

[00:33:05]Which is a big brain kind of thing to think about, but um you know, I wanted this to de-peg. I want I want more of this, right? I want this to go up. I want Bitcoin to become more valued than the SAS-pocalypse companies.

[00:33:21]Um but right now, Microsoft is on a bit of a tear, and this is the reason why um IGV is is uh losing correlation to Bitcoin. Now, it's coming up into this the zone of resistance here.

[00:33:35]We'll see how this ends up going. I did not pick up my uh Microsoft on this pullback. It was a It would have been a very obvious pick up for institutional investors. This is a very under bought you know, mega mega cap mag seven stock Microsoft. Um but I did not pick it up because of how poorly it it performed on this down trending line of resistance.

[00:33:58]Now, it's just blasted through it. So, we'll see what ends up happening there.

[00:34:02]I don't know if that's on news or what, but uh that's not what we want to see.

[00:34:06]We want to see the opposite of this happening, but if I had to guess, I think that Microsoft probably continues higher and maybe goes up and touches all-time highs. So, we'll see. Maybe I get a position here. I don't like I don't want to hold Microsoft though, because I think that their business model sucks and is going to be eaten by artificial intelligence. Bros, folks, thank you so much for watching.

[00:34:29]Gave you guys a a more sauce today.

[00:34:32]Kind of went we went deep on a couple of topics to help uh kind of educate.

[00:34:37]Smash the like button, for Pete's sake.

[00:34:41]Consider subscribing if you got value out of this. Hey, if you're looking for more TA, I get it. I'm more of the news guy, but I do a little bit of a mix of both.

[00:34:49]Um subscribe. If you want to stay up to up to date on what actually matters. I What I like to do is separate kind of the noise from the signal. So, there's a lot going on. Like somebody printed the Constitution onto the Bitcoin blockchain. That kind of stuff is is fun. It's cute.

[00:35:08]Doesn't matter. Nobody's going to buy Bitcoin or sell Bitcoin because of that.

[00:35:12]That's the kind of stuff I remove from your news feed and just tell you exactly what matters. And what matters right now is this freaking Iran conflict ending, and we don't have to know about any of these leaders ever again.

[00:35:24]You know, you don't know the leaders of of the uh of of the Philippines or even Australia. And we want that to go back to that way with Iran. I don't want to have to know who these guys are.

[00:35:36]I don't care. I just want them to sign to sign an an agreement that hopefully includes them, you know, not pursuing nuclear war um weapons and stuff like that. Um so, we really want that to happen. We really want uh the Clarity Act to pass, and we really want Kevin Warsh to get in there in June and say, "Hey guys, we're going to pump the markets." Right?

[00:35:57]That's what we want. Um and so, if you guys who are interested in continuing to follow those important threads that are actually moving price, along with a lot of other things like ETFs, and options flow, liquidity rotation, I provide all of that in these videos. So, hopefully uh you're getting value out of that.

[00:36:15]And you are subscribing. Thank you so much if you already have subscribed, being part of the fam here. Really really appreciate it. If you're looking to learn how to trade, learn how to invest, join the VIP trading group. The link is down in the description.

[00:36:29]Have a great rest of your day and audios.