Economic shocks like oil price increases often have delayed effects on labor markets, with businesses first adjusting to higher costs and interest rates before reducing hiring, creating a 'calm before the storm' period where full impacts may not be felt until months later.
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The Economic Storm That Hasn't Hit NZ Yet ⚠️Added:
The oil shock hasn't hit the labor market yet. These are the numbers from before the worst of it. Businesses are still working out what higher fuel costs means for them, what it means for their margins, what it means for their head count. Interest rates are starting to go up around the world including New Zealand and businesses use a lot of debt to grow and expand and to hire people.
So, those interest rates going up means that they have higher costs and they get more cautious about things like employing people. And there are still rumblings that the oil shock is going to keep getting worse, that it's going to really properly start to hit around July, even September. So, this is a little bit calm before storm.
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