The stock market follows a repeating 100-year cycle pattern consisting of three 25-year bull markets and three 9-10 year bear markets, with each cycle showing nearly identical structure, percentage gains, and crash patterns. The current AI boom represents the final phase of the third bull cycle (2009-2034), which is projected to reach 17,000 on the S&P 500 by 2034 before entering a 9-year bear market. Historical patterns show that every technological revolution—from electronics to PCs to internet to smartphones—ended with a blowoff top followed by a brutal correction, and this pattern is expected to repeat with the AI boom. The key indicators for selling are the 1-month MA50 moving average and the monthly RSI dropping below 30, which historically marked generational buying opportunities.
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Deep Dive
This 100 Year Chart Predicts EVERYTHING!Added:
What if I told you that the stock market has been running the exact same playbook over and over again for the last 100 years? Same cycle, same length, same blowoff top, same crash, same recovery.
And right now, right now, we are sitting in the most dangerous and also the most exciting phase of that 100-year loop.
So, I'm going to show you a chart that will genuinely change how you see the market forever. where we are, when to sell everything, and when to back up the truck and reby everything. And why?
Spoiler alert, this AI bubble is going to end the exact same way that every other bubble in history has ended. They will tell you this time is different.
They will tell you, "Well, because of AI, because human robots, everything's going to change this time. Bubbles are now mathematically impossible." Have you heard this talk before? Because it's pretty dangerous talk. Stay with me because this one is worth your full attention. So, there's this chart right now making the rounds. It's called the S&P 500 100year blueprint. Now, shout out to at@ tradingshot over on X. Go follow him. He made this chart. Maybe someone else has shared it before, but this is where I saw it first. Now, CryptoCon also cooked up a pretty similar chart idea last year with pretty similar results, pretty similar timings, but his was a bit more bearish without such a high top coming in. And look, I don't throw around the words like blueprint lightly, but when you look at this chart, it's kind of insane. So, pull it up. Take a look at it. From 1930 through until today, the S&P 500 has gone through three massive bare cycles and three massive bull cycles, lasting 25 years for the bull cycles and about 9 to 10 years for the bear cycles. They're almost identical in structure, same percentage gains, same number of days, same shape, like the market is running in some kind of cosmic clock that nobody told you about. And this is just like Bitcoin four-year cycle magically somehow keeps happening. Well, it keeps happening for stocks and the implications for your crypto bags, your stock bags, everything you're invested in, the implications are incredibly serious. So, let me walk you through it real quick because once you see this, you can't unsee it. Bare cycle one, 1929 to 1942, the Great Depression. Good times. 12 years of pure hell for everybody. Market gets absolutely obliterated. Everyone's broke. Nobody wants to touch stocks. We had the massive blowoff swap in stocks in the late 1920s. My grandma got so psychologically scarred for life.
Totally messed her up. True story. Then what happens? Old cycle 1, 1942 to 1966.
The modern electronics boom 24 years.
The market went up an insane 2536%.
That's not a typo. 2536%.
The world rebuilds. Industry explodes.
Stocks course go with it. Then of course you subscribe to the channel because it's free and you probably aren't subbed yet. If you're not subbed, it's free right down here. Don't miss any videos.
Okay, thanks. Now, so bare cycle 2, 1966 to 1974, stagflation, Vietnam, massive oil shocks, Nixon, it's ugly, man. Cycle 2, 1974 to 2000, the PC boom, then we get the internet boom, 25 years of massive gains. The market goes up 2,664% almost identical to the first bull cycle. The world goes through digital wealth explodes and then of course bear cycle 3 comes 2000 to 2009 crash, 9/11, the housing crisis, the financial meltdown, the whole thing.
Another absolute gut punch to markets.
And then we get the one that we're in right now. Bull cycle number three, 2009 to approximately 2034. Smartphones, e-commerce, crypto, the internet, AI, humanoid robots, and the AI boom is going to be the blowoff top part of this 25-year cycle. Based on this pattern, which is repeated with scary accuracy two times already, this cycle targets 17,000 on the S&P 500 by 2034. That's roughly 2536% from the 2009 low, almost exactly matching the previous two bull cycles.
So, freaked out yet? Because here where it gets really spooky, we are deep in the AI phase of this bull cycle. And if I want to be very honest with you about what that means, but there are two truths running here at the same time.
And it's absolutely important. And most people only want to hear one of them.
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Thank you. Truth number one, the AI opportunity is real. That's not made up hype. The earnings are insane. The potential, the impact of the technology is absolutely nuts. The company's building AI infrastructure, the chips, the data centers, the software, copper, everything's printing money. Earnings are holding up, which makes this very different to the com bubble. Revenue is growing. The technology is genuinely transformative. We are at the beginning of a productivity revolution that's going to reshape every single industry on the planet. It's also going to cause a massive unemployment crisis in a few years. Truth number two, every single technological revolution in this chart, which was completely game-changing at the time, ended up in a blowoff top in a brutal correction. A bare market that lasted 9 years. The electronics boom, blowoff top. PC and internet boom, blowoff top. The NASDAQ lost 80% from peak to trough, 80%.
The smartphone and e-commerce cycle blowoff top into 2022 every single time. And here's the pattern that kills people. The fundamentals stay good right up until the end. Earnings keep growing. Revenue keeps beating estimates. The analysts keep raising their price targets.
Everything looks fine until one day it doesn't because at some point it stops being about earnings. Becomes about euphoria.
People get too crazy. The market gets way over its skis. It gets about FOMO, about people buying stocks they don't understand because their neighbor made money on them and they don't want to miss out. We start looking at valuations that only make sense if you assume perfection forever. And that's just simply not realistic. And we are not fully there yet. We're getting closer.
It's still a few years off. Now, there'll be big corrections in the time, many bare markets between now and 2034 when the real 9-year bare market happens and nothing happens to the stock market for 9 effing years. But the question you need to be asking yourself isn't is AI real, it's how much of the good news is already priced in. So, let's talk about what you actually came here for. When do you sell? Now, I'm not going to give you a specific this is the exact minute and day because nobody knows the exact top and anyone who tells you that they do are they're selling you But I can give you the conditions that have historically marked the end of these cycles and the target again is around 2034. The first thing to watch the 1 month 50 period moving average on this chart. That's the blue line. Every major top in the S&P 500 has been preceded by the price running way way above that blue line and then snapping back to it violently. Here's something wild. We haven't even touched the one month MA50 since 2022. Think about that. We are overdue for a major retest of that line.
That retest when it comes is going to feel apocalyptic.
The news will be terrible. Everyone will say it's over forever. We're now entering this mega bare market. The Great Depressions here. Blah blah blah blah. But it won't be over yet. We will be over at some point though. But before we get to that, the actual sell signal to watch for will be the blowoff top.
And you'll probably know it when you see it. Your brain may not want to admit it.
It's hard hard selling on top because your brain's telling you, "Bet more. Buy more. Everyone's right. You're right.
You're a genius." The parable of price action will be insane. And we've seen some of that recently. The stock market right now is very frothy and probably due for a decent correction. But it's not the top. You'll see valuations that start making no mathematical sense. And that's when things really start the warning signs start coming out. That marked the top of the dot boom when Cisco's price dramatically overshot its earnings. AI stocks pricing in 50 years of perfect growth will be the norm.
Retail investors will be piling in. Your cab driver starts telling you what stocks to buy. They just spot bought STA SpaceX at a $10 trillion valuation. Your aunt will be asking how to open up a brokerage account. That's when you start de-risking. You don't have to go all at once. You can start scaling out. You take profits on the most overextended positions. You raise some cash because when things turn, and they always turn, they turn fast and they turn real ugly.
The target on this chart puts the S&P 500 at around 17,000 by 2034. So, it's over 100% more gains. We're at about 7,500 right now. So, that's a lot more upside. It's got got quite a few years to run. But, you don't want to get greedy at the end. You want to secure the bag. You want to secure that long-term wealth for you and your family. You don't want to have investments that are down 90% for 9 years. Now, the last 20% of a bull market is the most dangerous 20% that you can trade. Now, the fun part, because the other side of this chart is the most important investing signal in your entire life, and almost nobody's talking about it. You see, when this bull cycle ends, and it will end. It always ends, the S&P 500 is going to have one of the nastiest corrections in your lifetime, the chart projects a 9-year bare cycle starting sometime around 2034.
It's going to feel absolutely devastating. Everything is going to be down. AI is going to be over. Tech is going to be a scam. Everyone's going to say, "How could we have got so bullish on all these humanoid robots and all this AI and everyone's lost their jobs?"
you're going to see endless articles about how the market will never go up again. That's when you start backing up the truck. Now, the framework on this chart uses Fibonacci retracement levels.
Those numbers you see 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618, and 0.786.
In the previous two bearish cycles, the deepest retracements held around 0.618 to the 0.786 level. That's where the generational buying opportunities live.
There's also a second signal. By the way, we're not going to know exactly where these targets are until we've had our top. That's where you draw it from.
There's also a second signal, the one-mon RSI dropping below 30. Look at the bottom of this chart. Every single time, 1932, 1942, 1974, 2002, and 2009, the monthly RSI hit below 30. It was a generational buy. Not a this looks cheap buy, but a life-changing retire your whole family buy. It's an incredibly rare signal. In fact, it's something that might only happen once or twice in your investing lifetime. It's that rare, really.
And when it does happen, and it will happen again, you need to be ready. You need to have cash ready. You need to buy like your future depends on it because it will. You'll make so much money in the following 20 years. You'll sail off into the sunset and never have to think about money ever again. And this chart is saying that that extreme opportunity will come at the latest around 2041 perhaps for a second oversold reading and maybe a first oversold reading again monthly RSI under 30 sometime in the mid 2030s. So if we top in 2034 then look for this in 2035 or 2036. It's a long time away. I get it. But this is the generational wealth opportunity. We talk about generational wealth. This is the real one. That means not being fully leveraged into the market at the top.
That means taking profits. That means keeping some dry powder, potentially a lot, potentially fully exiting your positions. That means having the emotional discipline to buy when everyone around you is losing their mind. And to sell when everyone around you is losing their mind and euphoria. I know it all sounds almost too clean.
Cycles that repeat for a 100 years, targets for 20, 30, 40, sell here, buy there. The market's never really that simple. It isn't. We wish that it would be and sometimes it feels like it is in hindsight, but it never is that clean.
There will be volatility. There will be scary corrections along the way that feel like the end, but they're not actually. There will be moments when you question everything. But zoom out, step back from the daily noise. The pattern in this chart has held through the freaking Great Depression, through World War II, Vietnam, stagflation, the dotcom crash, 911, every crisis, every pile of you can imagine, the last hundred years, every financial crisis, oil shock, whatever, pandemics, all of it. And it keeps repeating. Now you are going to hear that this time is different. Whatever has existed before, this time is different. This is the super cycle. This is the literal new paradigm of everything because of AI. AI is going to change everything. There will be no more bare markets. This 9-year bare market theory is going to be totally disproven cuz we're going to go up only forever. But it won't be. It won't be. This will come with a massive unemployment crisis that'll hit earnings, all that kind of stuff. Yes, long-term very bullish on space, on AI, on humanoid robotics, on biotech, all this stuff. But it doesn't mean there won't be a horrific bare market. The lesson isn't that you can predict every move. The lesson is that cycles exist.
Extremes revert. We always come back to the baseline. And the people who understand the big picture and stay disciplined, well, they're going to be the ones who actually build wealth long term. The AI boom is real. AI is incredible. It's mind-blowing. And you can ride that wave. But don't marry it.
Know when the music stops. Keep your eyes on the long-term moving averages.
Watch that RSI. And when the crash comes, and it will, it always does, don't panic because you're ready. Because you have the knowledge. That's your moment. It's what you've been waiting for. 17,000 for the S&P 500 2034. That's one hell of a ride between now and then.
You can ride that wave. Enjoy that wave.
But remember, at some point, all waves crash into the shore. If this hits different, smash that like button. It actually helps more people see these videos. And also, drop a comment. Are you bullish? Are you bearish? You just generally confused by all this? Do you think this is actually going to play a 100red-year chart? That sounds like some Lark. This time is really different. Haven't you seen what's going on with AI? Let me know down below.
Thanks for watching. See you next time.
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