Markets Building Energy | Breakout Ahead? | BTC Below 75K [PREMARKET]

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:03]All right, we are live. We have data coming in right now. Let's go ahead and get straight to the data. Good morning everyone. We have data coming in right now. This is core PCE price index. You can see right here month over month, year-over-year coming in in line with the year overyear and lower than forecast for the month over month here. That is a 0.2 versus a 0.3.

[00:00:33]GDP coming in 1.6% versus 2% forecast here. And then you have the PCE price index down below 0.4 versus 0.5 on a month-over-month. and an inline here year overyear.

[00:00:49]We have crude oil inventories coming up at 11 a.m. Central as well. So that's going to be something to keep an eye on.

[00:00:56]So now that we have the data out of the way, let's talk some key levels. Good morning everyone. Good to see you. We have uh for crude oil traders some compression right now happening in a big way. Let's take a look here at uh the ES for a moment. just see some initial reactions. NQ YM and RTY all building energy still. So let's go ahead and start with crude oil this morning.

[00:01:24]One thing you'll notice with crude oil is the previous session here. We had this developing rejection yesterday. We dropped into the 15minute chart and said that is a good rejection. It's a thrust reversal. It is an S3 pro signal as well. And the idea was for a rotation back toward value VWAP here. It almost got there, but that was enough to scale and uh and and make along the way. That was about a $3 move. Very, very good push here from that push. Now, once we got back to these lows, look at another reaction right here. Now, a little bit higher than S3 here, but nonetheless, these thrust reversal signals here, depending on where you're firing them off. Uh, again, this signal right here probably has I need to look at the actual session on that one. So, this one also fires if you let the session open up, but up to this high and then back down and now squeezing around a flat VWAP. So today's key level here is basically 92s.

[00:02:36]The previous session had been 94s and we came into 94 held held held then dropped away from it. Now 92 very very important. This market is compressed in a big way right now. A lot of this energy here building for the next move and again got to continue for you know headline watch continues to be a main thing here especially with regards to the Iran war straight hormuse and all of this again is still just back and forth headline chop. It's headline fatigue in a lot of ways. It's really you know you you get one headline back up. is the complete opposite headline right away.

[00:03:19]So, it's very difficult, but you still have to continue to watch it just in case. Um, the compression right now has enough energy for at least a six-point breakout move.

[00:03:31]So, say we were to push through 92s, there is the potential to rally six points to 98s.

[00:03:39]And then likewise, you break through 90 here. There's a shot to drop six points down, which takes you to 94. 94. Uh rather 84, I say confidently. 84. Uh so you break 90, you drop six, that gets you to 84. That's the next market structure level down. You can see this downtrending price action has been in play. So to have kind of this upper edge here, do we get another rotation down?

[00:04:08]Remember the forces that be want price of crude oil to be lower and uh at the moment to be below 94 is would keep you between 84 and 94 and there's currently six points of energy in this range. A failure or a breakout through that 90 is six points right this way. So we will see which way we go here out of the range. Sometimes it's difficult to engage crude when you're right at value and crude oil inventories today is at 11:00 a.m. Central time, not Wednesday, uh which would have been yesterday and not earlier. Sometimes it's even earlier say, you know, uh they move it just 30 minutes. This thing has moved in 90 minutes from its normal slot. So keep that in mind here as it builds energy here for now. Any drop into 89 half or so right in this area could be a rotation back up. Any rally into this zone could be a rotation down.

[00:05:05]So if you're looking for prices to stay within range, be patient for a move to one of the extremes for a fade into Vpo from the extreme. All right, looking at let's take a look at the YM.

[00:05:21]Let's take a look at the YM. I want to do this from a daily chart standpoint right here. So, let's look at the daily chart for a moment. The previous day, so Tuesday afternoon, we mentioned the next day could be a bullish day here and ideally we take out five uh 50,400 and bounce back to 800. So, we were looking for a 400 point day yesterday.

[00:05:48]Yesterday's range ended up being 396 390 something points. So, it was right in line with our estimate for the most part. Let's see. 396 points yesterday.

[00:05:59]So, it was right in line with our estimate. Um, and for today, the goal was pretty similar yet even a bit more. Could we get a bit more range today in a high range breakout move or do we stay compressed? This is the thing about uh post holiday trading uh 4day holiday week here for the most part following the first week of summer.

[00:06:29]Do we stay mostly compressed?

[00:06:32]And if we do have a high range day, then there is the potential to go 5 to 600 points from the edge. So if the the low is the low and we start to work higher, then you could be looking at 5 to 600 points higher. But really, there's a lot of compression in here where we may not get any kind of breakout move right now.

[00:06:53]This thing may die into the weekend between 50,4 and 51K.

[00:07:00]So, that's pretty much the range here with an upward bias. So, I would say be patient.

[00:07:06]If this thing does drop into 50, uh 400 here, that could be another buy back to eight. So, it could be a 400 point day again in all likelihood.

[00:07:18]So, let's bring it back. Right now, we're at 243 and 40% of average range.

[00:07:24]That is super narrow. That That's pretty narrow, right?

[00:07:28]So, if you look at the 60-minute chart, this is what it looks like right now in the 60-minute time frame. You have this compression, super narrow price action right now.

[00:07:41]And it's hard to figure if we're going to just go ahead and break one way or another. Uh again, holiday trading, post holiday trading, holiday shortened week, all of that. first day of first trading week of summer that can bring volume and volatility down a bit in a way that we're just trading back and forth within the range. So the YM if we're patient perhaps we hit that you know two-day lows somewhere in here between 400 and 500 and then that leads to a bounce back to say 700 and maybe up to about 900. So that's for all intents and purposes could be the range today. Uh and if we drop down even further, say into the 4m minute time frame here, we're already seeing an initial reaction off the uh the intraday S3.

[00:08:31]And this is after a takeout of the overnight low. So we're seeing already kind of that trading range price action right now play out with a downward bias so far and then a flat bias for the last few days. So basically what I'm saying here is for crude or for rather the YM here watch the edges and watch the edges and we may be mostly rangebound uh 400 points. Now again coming into today we were looking for the potential of a higher range day but so far after the initial wave of econ data here we're not seeing a tremendous amount of movement just yet but we are seeing some bullish bias. So here's the deal. If you're seeing PCE and inflation data come in a bit lighter than expected, that could provide a bit of a path higher here for equity futures, especially if paired with a crude oil that is declining. So keep that in mind. If we are going to drop here in crude plus softer inflation data that could be supportive for the ESNQ YM RTY on the way up and that's kind of what we're seeing at the moment. Um so for the YM back and forth price action here with an upward bias but building significant energy for a bigger move to come at some point. Is it next week? Is it Friday? We'll see. Now looking at uh the ES this one here yesterday we were watching for a fade at the extremes because Monday became a digestive day.

[00:10:25]We said you look we wait down here for 7516 at least and then you fade it to the middle. The middle is that pink line. Or you look up here to the previous high and then you fade it back to the middle. This one happened fast, right? Coming into the trading room. Boom. That came in. But this one happened later. So a really good two-day digestive range. You come into today, same thing. We were looking for the same trade. Basically, uh this low is your previous low. So if price comes into it, you're looking for bulls to defend and return to the middle and then maybe across the range. And if we get across the range up here, back to the middle.

[00:11:11]So it's a very identical day to yesterday. Do we go outside day up and start to really break out? You know, that would be the high range scenario.

[00:11:21]Right now, this market has given us what it is, which is a digestive week to begin the week. We thought that would be the case.

[00:11:31]Remember, uh Tuesday morning, we thought we'd get kind of a rotational trade Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, but Thursday had the potential to be the high range day. And here we are on a Thursday, and we're currently rallying within range.

[00:11:47]So that lessens the potential for expansion.

[00:11:52]On the other hand, what if we were up here and we were starting to break here early in the day? If this move was happening here, obviously there's more potential for expansion now. So right now we could be capped on the upside somewhere between 70 and 80 as this market remains rotational at the moment. So some thoughts right there. By the way, let me get to the chat here.

[00:12:14]You all are being so patient. Uh, good morning Villain, Dale, Kevin, good to see you. M, Peter, everyone, good to see you. Welcome to the room here. Um, looking at some of these charts to begin the week here has been pretty compressed in some cases here with regards to the YM inside day yesterday.

[00:12:36]Inside day again today developing, that's a lot of compression. Remember this kind of sort of high range day is really three days stitch stitched together. So you have a Sunday, Monday, Tuesday trade given the holiday. So it kind of really shows like a big day, but it's it's really multiple days in a compression phase. So we're really just kind of holding with an upward bias right now. And we really have 51K 49K as our two major market structure levels. If you start to push through 51, we're going to be looking at 53 up ahead. If we reject 51, we're looking at 49 ahead. It's pretty much that easy from a market structure perspective and a directional bias perspective. So, up here right now, if it can find a way through 51K over the next week or so, we're looking here. If it fails here, then we're pulling back before the next attempt again to go that to that level.

[00:13:32]So, that's the structure right there for the YM. The ENQ has been so much more bullish. Obviously, the AI trade full on bullish. Uh obviously you're seeing things like Micron continue higher and various segments of the AI compute, the AI edge trade is in play. So many of these we've had some pullbacks here recently, but we have earnings coming up uh that came out here rather for Marvel here. And this is going to be one to watch early on, especially from an NQ perspective. We're talked uh we've talked MGR signals here recently. That is a midpoint gap reversal. So here's Micron yesterday and it opens and closes way down here below the middle of the day range. It's a high range day yesterday, 176% of ADR.

[00:14:26]And now look at today. Heading into the RTH open, we have a pre-market print of 208.88 and that is above yesterday's midpoint of 20724.

[00:14:38]That midpoint is super far away because it's a high range day. So, this is a major shift in overnight sentiment, right?

[00:14:47]Again, the MGR narrative here very strong with this one right now to gap up if right now in 45 minutes. But if right now we were to gap open here, the first pull back down could be the buy and you're driving higher, driving higher to back to the highs and perhaps beyond.

[00:15:10]That could really open things up here uh from uh an AI tech trade perspective and acceptance beyond the mid opens up a test back at the previous high open failure. So, say we gap up to right here and it fails to hold the mid, now you're filling the gap back to the low. That's how you trade that that type of trade idea.

[00:15:35]But really, the higher you gap beyond that midpoint. So, say we were to gap here at say 210, 212, now the pullback into the mid can really launch for a continuation. So, those are going some things to look for here in Marvel and Nvidia. I know we're getting off the indexes right here, but Nvidia is going to be one to watch as well. This is one we were looking for dropping into the 210 level. 210 is a major market structure level. It's rotated into that level after uh nearly hitting the 240 market structure level. 240 big time level there. So, whenever we got through 210, it would suggest a push to 240. you fail at 240, it suggests a return to 210. And given the uptrending structure, this is the next level to buy for a return to 240 and maybe a push through 240 into the next structure above, which is 270.

[00:16:35]So, is 210 a buy ultimately to 270 down the road or is it just a return to 240, 235 to 240?

[00:16:46]It all happens off this 210 zone right now. And yesterday we could see the clear drop in reversal. It wasn't a high range reaction day.

[00:16:56]It didn't close super high above the day's midpoint, but it did recover the mid. But look at it today.

[00:17:04]The current pre-market print is right at it. So, we're going to be opening right around that midpoint.

[00:17:10]That is not normally what you'd like to see. That would be indicative of a drop first. Again, kind of similar to what it did yesterday. It closed here. It gapped down. It dropped first and then it bounced. So, this still suggests kind of a lower bias, but we got to continue to watch 210 to see how it behaves off that level.

[00:17:32]If it drops here, can hold 210 again, maybe we're turning the corner and a bullish response. Say this thing can finish through 216 up ahead next week.

[00:17:43]That would be a big time open up of the upper price level. So, watching Nvidia here, we've had a significant pullback.

[00:17:51]This pullback, by the way, if you quantify it with our ADR tool here, it's right in line with a lot of the pullbacks we've seen previously before a launch occurs. So, it's right in line uh with that price action. So, we'll see if we can get that move. If so, that could be directionally speaking quite bullish for the ENQ trade as this thing continues to melt up in a significant way. So, looking at the ENQ now, we're seeing a bit of a failed low against the previous session's digestive day.

[00:18:26]Can it continue to hold 800 here for a squeeze higher? Can it finish the day above 30,400? That would be an outside day up.

[00:18:37]That would be pretty bullish. or is this just kind of more rangebound action? To look at the intraday chart here, you can see again support holding early on and now a flat VWAP and working through it.

[00:18:52]So, this is telling us it's a trading range right now, at least early on, and it's trying to take value bid at the moment, which would open up a push up to the upper areas of the range. So you're looking at 30,150 here and perhaps a move into the 400 level above. From an intraday 4minute chart perspective on the bands here, you're looking at this thing continuing higher into that 150 zone like we said and that level can either turn us back down on an intraday basis or pushing through that level opens up the high as we mentioned. So, pretty much in line uh right now seeing some strength to the upper end of the range. If you're bearish here, this is going to be a big spot to watch around that 125 to 150 zone. It could rotate us right into value down below here at around 950. So, there's some potential right here for a little bit of a fade and then you push through here, it opens up the highs.

[00:19:54]Some thoughts right there for the NQ. Uh now, Bitcoin.

[00:19:59]Yeah, Peter, you mentioned Bitcoin here to push below 75K.

[00:20:04]Pretty significant.

[00:20:06]It's Is this a transition phase through 75? That's something to really watch out for.

[00:20:14]I'm going to drop off a couple of these pivots right now just to show a little bit more of the important level that's being tested right this moment. This is the key level for Bitcoin right here as we speak.

[00:20:36]And this is the market structure for Bitcoin. Okay, this day right here, we we gapped down or price open, gapped down to about 80,000, dropped, and then here we've been in this ever since. So, we're going to take it from the gap day and we're going to take that volume profile. It is a double distribution profile here and here with the middle part of B right there.

[00:21:04]We're right at it right now.

[00:21:06]Additionally, that's your previous month's midpoint.

[00:21:11]We're right at it right now. That's the spot where if you fail at the midpoint, you open up the previous low. That's this level right there. You hold at the midpoint, you stay in the upper half of the previous range, which is where we just came from. So, this point right there, so important, and it's basically today's low, which is 728.885.

[00:21:35]That's also right at that middle part of the the B which is the CLVN of the B-shaped profile the double distribution profile.

[00:21:46]So this is the spot where it would bounce. Additionally lastly I suppose if you're looking here at this uh channeling behavior and then you look over here to this channeling behavior right here. We have the potential now to find a low here and maybe rotate back up within the channeling behavior. Such an important spot right here. The other thing is against market structure 75k market structure right here.

[00:22:20]It found a month's worth of acceptance above the level and is now trading just one day below it. This could be a bear trap. a one day trade or maybe a two-day whatever trade below and as soon as it pops back above 75 we have a shot to make a move right so this is I don't see this as a transition day just yet but it's clearly testing significant market structure from multiple multiple perspectives do we get a bit of a rotation up within this channel this is the spot to do it. And this is also the spot to fail and kind of open up some lower levels. So, watching this zone very very closely. We're right at it again. Today's low 72885 uh 729 basically.

[00:23:18]How does it play out off of this level?

[00:23:19]That's going to be something to watch.

[00:23:20]Again, Ethereum has been much more bearish against Bitcoin. Risk assets in general from the crypto side not been good. And this when it tested that line that day, we talked about the potential for another horror drop here up ahead. Does that finally get us into last year's low? Does it get us lower than that?

[00:23:48]It's coming up. Something's coming. And this is getting quite weak right now.

[00:23:52]Uh but man, you look at Tom Lee, he thinks this is the buying spree of all time. Uh in the last 30 days, 300 plus Ethereum. All the other publicly traded companies in the top 50 have a combined 15.

[00:24:08]This thing, this guy's buying 300K. So, one man support system here coming into play. Can it can it hold for a short rotation to 2400 or are we really breaking down here? So, some big things to watch there. Now, in terms of gold here, uh, one thing with regards to gold, it's giving up the 4500 level here, but we still have a rising 200, which has been big time in play. Um that one right there just in and of itself the 200 day because this thing has been so bullish could hold and keep prices just in check in here. We're we're kind of in this range right now right there and we've been a little above it, a little below it, but that's the range. So we pretty much have support at 44 up to about 48 and that's the range. Do we bounce it back up here and hold? This one has been a little different here lately. So, um 4500 will continue to be the level.

[00:25:13]That's the level we started the week with. So, continue to watch that 4500 level here. You can see the precision moving off of it lately. If we're squeezing right now, 4500 could become a magnet then for price, thus also become a sell once it gets there. So, watching this how it develops right now, but showing early strength and get off at the moment, which could open that thing up back to a return to 4500 above. So, let's go back down here as we look back.

[00:25:49]That's right, Peter. He He's going to take some uh some shots every now and then.

[00:25:55]U All right, let's look right here. I did see somewhere where Elon made a Bitcoin prediction that was pretty astronomical here. I need to go back and and see what that is. Uh because it's crazy what the what all the predictions can be. It can be anywhere from zero to a billion a coin. Who knows? Uh crazy stuff here.

[00:26:19]Still compressed, still hanging around the 91 level for crude oil. Again, there's can be a lot of chop around here. So, be careful. Be cautious with the chop. Avoid the chop. If price gets to an edge, fade it back to the middle.

[00:26:35]To the edge, fade it back to the middle.

[00:26:38]Right now, when we do get an actual breakout, though, one where we break down through S3, for example, and then it can't recover S3, that's when you're looking for that six-point breakout move. So, keep that in mind for crude oil. But, uh, with that, I'm going to go ahead and leave it there for the morning. Thank you very much for joining me here. We're going to jump back into our trading room in the Discord room here soon. Again, these markets could be mostly digestive today, trading within range until proven otherwise, but building energy for a move to come.

[00:27:13]Everyone, have a fantastic rest of your morning. We'll see you soon. Take care.