Did We Just Avoid A Stock Market Crash?

Added: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00][applause] >> Our country is winning again. In fact, we're winning so much that we really don't know what to do about it.

[00:00:09]People are asking me, "Please, please, please, Mr. President, we're winning too much. We can't take it anymore. We're not used to winning in our country until you came along we're just always losing, but now we're winning too much."

[00:00:23]And I say, "No, no, no, you're going to win again. You're going to win big.

[00:00:28]You're going to win bigger than ever."

[00:00:30]And to prove that point, TO PROVE THAT POINT, HERE WITH US TONIGHT IS A GROUP OF WINNERS.

[00:00:36]>> Welcome everybody to the Daily Recap Show where we talk about stocks and the financial markets. My name is Chase. If you like this video, please subscribe, hit that notification bell as well as the like button, and leave a comment for the algorithm. Let's get into it. This is the daily heat map of the S&P 500 and US stocks edged higher on Thursday amid a report that US and Iranian negotiators reached a breakthrough on a peace deal following a second wave of military strikes on Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. And stocks were actually broadly green, specifically AI stocks, software stocks. We'll talk about why that is.

[00:01:09]This part of the market really, really rallying, outperforming Microsoft, Nvidia, ABG, or even software participating hardware. You could see right here Oracle, Palantir, Nvidia all catching a bid. We did also see some slight gains in Amazon, Tesla. Google and Meta didn't quite participate, and it really was just like tech and software that led the rally here today.

[00:01:32]Now, don't get me wrong, there were other green sectors as well, but you could see that software and tech up 2.94. IGV software nearly up 3%, uh and at one point it was 3.5% right. XLK up folder as well, up 1.35% and then you saw the RTY and the S&P 500 up 0.58 and 0.76% respectively. Other green sectors include materials, communication and discretionary. And then the remaining sectors were red with the worst performer being the XLF financials and utilities. So, all in all, a very solid day for the equity markets. It really was a day for growth, large cap growth, and mid cap growth really took it took the lead, took the baton. And then the red sectors were like sort of the core and value components of the market. But ultimately, yeah, we just saw a big rotation into the market as a whole, yes, but particularly growth stocks. You didn't see small caps growth outperform their smaller counterparts. It really was just a day for US equities. US equities did really, really well. But American equities for the most part, European stocks were red.

[00:02:35]Asian stocks were deep, deep in the red along with Middle Eastern stocks, South Africa. Yeah, just all in all, it was a day for US equity markets. And that's because US economic data came in really, really good. Now, depends how you define good. For example, if you look at the nominal figure here of durable good orders, 7.9% versus the consensus you get like, yeah, people are buying more durable goods. But could this just be inflationary pressures since this is the second derivative as a growth rate? I don't know. We'll see how that points up because when we actually look at the PCE numbers, that came in slightly lower than expected.

[00:03:09]So, can you say it's inflation? No, you can't. You see 0.2 versus 0.3% in the core PCE price index. When you look at the year-over-year figures, that came roughly in line. The month-over-month figures also down 0.4. If you look at the headline figures, right? 0.4 versus 0.5. So, inflation coming in cooler than expected, right? When we still have durable goods coming in very, very strong. We have new home sales not coming in super strong and actually below the expectation as you can see right there. But that has to do with the housing market. When we look at initial jobless claims, they came in at 215 telling us the labor market is still tight. GDP coming in at 3.5%. The consensus was 4.5%, but we're largely looking through this as it pertains to the Iran situation. And then durable goods ex-transport, we're looking at 1.1% versus 0.5%. So, really, really good economic data, especially when you look at the spending figures right here that came in at 0.5%. So, solid, solid economic data that helped the markets rally. At the same time, the United States and Iran have reportedly reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Under the agreement, Iran would be required to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days. The US would lift naval blockades in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping through the strait. President Trump is currently reviewing the agreement. The markets really, really like this and that helped boost the markets. At the same time, Claude released its newest model, Claude Opus 4.8, and it's stellar. Its benchmarks are great, but the key thing right here, I think, is knowledge work, right? This is a cut above the rest. A gentle computer use at 83% right? That means we're going to need more GPUs, more CPUs, more memory, [music] and more storage. At the same time, Anthropic raised $65 billion in its H series funding round at a $965 billion valuation. And again, that really helped the markets rally as well, particularly the tech stocks. And then, for everything we saw today, what really helped the uh um uh software stocks was Snowflake's earnings. Now, Snowflake was up nearly 40% today, guys. Absolutely insane move after its earnings, and it was just a beat across the board.

[00:05:16]Revenue, EPS, product revenue, RPO, they signed a $6 billion multi-year agreement with Amazon Web Services. The market really likes that, and product revenue uh guide for the year, which is essentially their big guidance number they give, came in at 5.8 billion. The street was expecting 5.6. Just insane numbers here from Snowflake. At the same time, Salesforce dropped one of the craziest earnings I've ever seen in my life. Now, revenue came in at 11.13, roughly in line. EPS came in at 3.88, smashing expectations. CRPO, or current remaining came in at 33.6, slightly below the estimates right there, and I think that's why we're seeing a little bit of weakness. But, the crazy thing to take away from all of Salesforce's earnings was the fact that they bought back $27 billion in stock, guys. That's about 10% of the company diluted, right? On a non-diluted basis, they bought back 16% of the shares outstanding. Absolutely insane.

[00:06:11]Just insane. And, you know, they have a $50 uh buyback in in process at the moment. They spent $27 billion. The remaining they'll probably spend this quarter. So, you can assume that another, I would say, 8 to 10% of the of the float will be reduced uh this quarter. Just insane stuff that we're seeing in the market uh right now. But, the stock not really doing much of anything, if you ask me. And, it probably has to do with that CRPO figure right there, coming in slightly below uh consensus expectations. And then, for everything we saw today here, guys, there was 3,600 advances. There was 2,700 decliners. We saw outflows in the majors. The Nasdaq 100 was up 0.91%.

[00:06:47]Market momentum remains solid at the top of the charts. Now, guys, um looking at the charts right here, today was a fairly green day across the board from the the majors even to the equal weight small caps. It was just a green day through and through. But, the large caps really taking the the lead here today and leading the rally, particularly the Nasdaq 100. We saw international stocks participate up 0.36%. Crypto continues to not look that good, if you ask me.

[00:07:11]Bitcoin down 1%. Ethereum pretty much flat right there. And, yeah, you know, I think all of the money that would be going to crypto is probably going to the AI trade. You can see the DRUM ETF up 3%, IGV up 2%, 3% there on the day. Uh semiconductors up a lot. Now, looking at the macro, the 10-year yield actually fell. Probably has to do with the Iran deal, same with the dollar, as you can see right there. Gold and silver up 1%.

[00:07:31]Crude still below $90. Really, really good. We want it below sort of that mid-90 level. And then, that gas was up 6% here on the day. And guys, the S&P 500 continues to notch all-time highs.

[00:07:41]It was at all time high here today that we made. You could see right there at the 7,500 level. I think we're going to see 8,000 sometime this year. I would really love a pullback, but I think all pullbacks are about to be extremely extremely shallow and all dips will be bought relentlessly if you ask me. I think that's going to continue especially with how earnings are growing in this market. Earnings are looking so so solid for the S&P 500. That makes the multiple really really attractive and especially when you look at uh where momentum is. Momentum is in stuff like the DRAM names, Micron like literally trading at 10 times earnings next year's earnings. When you look at Sandisk trading at like 11 times next year's earnings. When you look at uh Western Digital, right? Um >> [music] >> trading again a slightly higher multiple, but still very very attractive valuations. And then you go to the software space, right? You look at something like Reddit trading at 21 times earnings. Really really solid stuff, right? You look at something like ServiceNow trading at 20 times earnings.

[00:08:30]Really really solid stuff. You look at something like AppLovin which I bought yesterday by the way. Um and I'm actually 5.66% here today. Absolutely crazy. And it's it's broken the 200 moving average. It's going to go higher.

[00:08:41]Stocks will trade at like 23 times forward earnings. You're looking at 50 to 60% earnings growth revenue growth, sorry, um over the next year. This These stocks look cheap. Maybe getting a little bit frothy right here. Maybe a pullback sort of to this level right here and then we can go from there. I would love that. Something to add to this position. But yeah, software looking really really cheap. The mega caps are not looking expensive as well.

[00:09:01]Google looks expensive, but Nvidia trading at 23 times earnings and you're just getting immense growth in market leader, a monopolistic name. It's just all of these stocks look really really cheap if you ask me and I think that means momentum will continue in this market. You can see here that Nvidia was up just shy of 1% here today. Absolutely insane numbers coming from everywhere right now in the market. Even European stocks are putting up stuff. The only thing that isn't really performing is uh crypto. Bitcoin back in the our buy zone right here. I really was looking for a bounce sort of at this like 73,000 level. We did not get it. Uh that is It's Um but we will continue to accumulate Bitcoin in this area right here.

[00:09:39]Ethereum looking like it's going after its lows. It is bouncing right here. I mean, if we go to the one-day chart, we can see it did come up significantly. If we look at a percentage return basis, it went from like -2.8% now pretty much, you know, flat on the day. We'll see what happens. That probably means BM and Alf is probably performing really, really well. Yes, up 2.23% as you can see right there on the day. Very, very solid stuff here from the market as a whole. But yeah, I really, really like where equities are at the current moment, guys. I think equities are looking really, really solid. There is a little bit of concerning stuff. The US yields you know, yields are coming down. Don't get me wrong, but they're still at like this you know, above the four range right here. Hopefully, we continue to move lower in yields and that would help. But what we are seeing is strong economic data and I think that's partly what yields and the bond market is doing.

[00:10:25]They're pricing in stronger economic growth and that's why we're seeing yields rise. That's generally what happens. When you look at gold, I think this is probably where you want to add gold if you're looking for a position right at the 200 moving average. The same is true with silver. It could go a little bit lower, but maybe you want to front run silver. I think now is a great time to add to these commodity names, gold, silver. Guys, keep these positions small. 1%, 2%, 3% in your portfolio. The bulk of your portfolio should be in stuff like the S&P 500 and the stocks we talked about earlier. Also, do keep some cash, right? I do think we are going to see some form of a pullback, right? I think we are going to see some form of a pullback. It's going to be shallow, but it's going to be, you know, big enough that it might cause a little bit of fear in the market and then from there, we can then move to the upside especially in the back half or the back quarter of the year. But things are looking good.

[00:11:10]Earnings are growing. I don't see how you're not long this market right now especially with everything that's happening, the tailwinds we have with AI. There's only one place this resolves and that is higher in the shorter term, higher in the medium term. Longer term, yet to be decided. But guys, like I always say, buy the dip. Now guys, let's talk about sentiment and despite the wobbles, despite all of the news, despite Iran, despite everything, we continue to remain in greed, not extreme greed, despite trading at all-time highs. And again, this is just fuel for the upside. And I think the upside right now is simply earnings. Stocks are making so much money. Companies are making so much money. S&P 500 earnings are $390 a share. I think I quoted $370 close to $400 in earnings per share year for 2027 estimates, right? If you slap a 22 multiple on that, right, you're looking at S&P 500 8,560.

[00:12:00]If you slap a 20 multiple on that, you're looking at close to 8,000, right, for the S&P 500. And this is where the multiple is right now. So, if earning continue to grow this year, multiple doesn't expand, you're looking at 8,000 plus in the S&P 500. And I think that's why we're seeing revisions to the upside as it pertains to S&P 500 price targets.

[00:12:18]And I think that's going to boost the the market and continue with rallying to the upside. When we look at the macro, things are looking good. 4% GDP plus for Q2. The odds of recession are down at its lowest level in the year. But we do have to be aware of the risk. There's some very very strong data that could impact the market coming [clears throat] out tomorrow. Core PCE, durable goods, GDP, and then personal income outlays.

[00:12:40]So, we got to pay attention to the economic data here tomorrow. In terms of earnings, right, we have Best Buy, Dell, UiPath, and Costco, Autodesk, SentinelOne, and Okta. They're all reporting after the close. Particularly Okta and SentinelOne, right? These are um cybersecurity names. After what Zscaler did, we'll see what happens for the most part. But again, still a big big day tomorrow, guys. But if you've made it up until here, thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, please subscribe. Hit the notification bell as well as the like button and leave a comment for the algorithm.

[00:13:07]Cheers.