The Rally Accelerates, Narrows, and Shows New Warning Signs

本站添加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Welcome back to the trading apologist.

[00:00:01]My name is Tom and this is your daily market recap for Tuesday, May 26, 2026.

[00:00:06]I hope you all had a lovely holiday weekend and what a day it was in markets to start the short trading week. Indices at fresh all-time highs. Micron absolutely flying on upgrades to its multiples. So, we have to look at that sector of the market. There was a little bit of weakness in software. People are thinking that the software trade might be over. were just hitting resistance to be quite honest and a lot of money was rotating out of things like software and even Photonix's names that have been quite hot to go back into the memory trade on the upgrades that we saw for Micron. So, we'll look at those charts.

[00:00:43]We'll see how money is flowing broadly speaking. We didn't see the same expansion in breadth that we saw Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week. The market was a bit more concentrated today, but RSP still closed the day overall positive from where we were on Friday. So, let's get right into it. Start on the indices, look at some of the volatility reads, some of the sectors, and then the key names that are moving because some things like RDW with the overnight price action were up 41% on the day, which this is not normal everybody in terms of seeing those kinds of returns in a day. It reminds me of 2021 or trading crypto in 2017, but here we are playing in equities. And just a reminder because that intro was probably a bit boring just looking at the S&P chart. We will be back to a normal webcam soon. My face is still healing up a little bit. Not quite there, but give it another few days. Maybe by the end of the week, for sure next week I'll be back on camera. So, let's start on the S&P 500. So, we gapped up over the weekend. Fresh all-time highs for the indices. The S&P 500 underperformed the NASDAQ today because so much money was rotating into the tech side of things.

[00:01:52]The one thing we have to discuss is that we're seeing the first bearish divergence now, which we talked about in the weekend video where we have lower highs in the RSI and higher highs in the prices. Now, as we discussed this weekend, a daily bearish divergence can play out for weeks, weekly bearish divergences can play out for months, so on and so forth. So, we don't need to worry about this tomorrow, but we have to be aware that we are starting to see that. And if we go over to the 4our just to see where we ended the day, you can see that we also have that divergence forming on the 4 hour. But the 4 hour has already been forming since the 17th of April. So, quite a bit longer than the daily chart. I don't know why I just brought that up. So, if we go to the RSP for the equal weight, this is what I wanted to look at. And if we look at the daily candle in contrast, still had that jump up from our breakout to close last week, but we underperformed the S&P 500 actually with a slightly negative candle on the day. Positive overall in terms of an up bar, but uh not as much breadth in the market as we saw to end last week.

[00:03:02]Now, if we do go to the NASDAQ, you can see that the NASDAQ was quite a bit more positive on the day. Really pushing into the close. And one thing we can do is actually let's just go to the NQ to see how things are doing after hours. Still pushing after hours. And much of that is on the back of Micron really continuing to push. And let's go into the 1 hour candles or something of that sort here just so we can see it in detail. So, uh, the last two hours we've stalled out, but still broadly positive in the overnight price action. Now, because not everything was moving in unison, we did see the VIX actually jump a little bit on the day compared to where we were on Friday. So, because not all players in the market came along for the ride.

[00:03:48]Volatility jumped up a little bit. And then if we go to move, just to get our read on bonds insurance, move continued to drop. Now we are getting into the 20weekly 200 day moving average. Uh really compressing into this one level here on move. Again, I don't pay attention to moving averages much on something like move since it's not price action, but it's there on the charts.

[00:04:12]This is most likely going to bode well for tomorrow. So let's see if we do get that follow through. All right, so let's start on Micron. The story of the day.

[00:04:21]the stock really jumped up almost $200.

[00:04:24]If we take into account the overnight price action on the day in percentage terms, I believe we were at roughly about 18%. So for a stock of this size, oh 22%, excuse me, from the close on Friday, um I think 18% on the day and then a little bit more after hours. So massive moves for a stock like this. Why did this happen? Well, Micron got a lot of longer term commitments. there were shorterterm commitments and this is making their earnings more durable over the long run which is causing a bit of rerating and rericing as we're seeing here. Now we talked about this most likely when we broke past the 100% extension and this was on the Samsung strike which was a bit of a tailwind for Micron then we pulled back. We were saying that 975 is our next target because that's where we have the 1618 extension. Now, many analysts are repricing this with targets around 1,600 or so. And if we get to the 2618 extension, that would be roughly around 1,400. And beyond that, the 3618 would be around 1,800. So, Micron continues to run. I have to say this was one of my bad sales last year. I sold it just under $200 after getting in in the 70s.

[00:05:42]Thought I did great and I missed a 10x on this. So, you're not going to catch them all, but it has really run. But there are other names that are moving and are moving by greater percentages than this. And we'll come back to the other memory names, but one of the standouts of the day that we've been in for quite some time now is RDW. And that was up 41% if we're taking into account the overnight price action. So, sorry I have so many lines on my screen when we're looking at the fib levels, but this is absolutely going vertical after breaking out of this symmetrical triangle. And let's bring this over onto logarithmic because that's how we've been viewing this. So, after finally breaking out on the 14th of May, we jumped from that breakout at around $12 to in the after hours price action getting almost to 25. If we're just looking from the Friday close right here to where we move to, that is 43%. Really unbelievable uh that we're getting to our near-term price target this quickly.

[00:06:46]So, we have a near-term price target of 33 and our full breakout price target of that uh symmetrical triangle up at 40.

[00:06:54]So, like I said in the intro, I haven't seen the market move like this. We've already seen really fast rotation, but just in terms of percentage moves, this is really speaking to a frothy market.

[00:07:06]I'm not saying it's over now. It's actually probably going to run a bit longer than most people suspect, even if we do get some pullbacks along the way, but uh we do have to be aware that this is not going to last forever. There's plenty of opportunity right now. So, please take advantage of the opportunity. you can really make some life-changing gains at the moment, but we also have to be careful and realize that these market conditions aren't going to last forever. And the last thing I will say before I get off of my soap box, even as you're making big gains, remember to keep risk management in mind. I think it's human nature that when we see these kinds of moves in our portfolio, we can get addicted to the thrill and you start taking on more and more risk that you might not in other market conditions which can work for a while but eventually that is going to hurt you. So just be careful of that.

[00:07:55]All right, so let's just check in with the other memory names and micron is a little bit different than SanDisk and what have you. I think the best way I can describe it is that Micron is more short-term memory and then SanDisk is more like the vault where things are stored long-term in terms of what they're providing for data centers. So SanDisk broke out to fresh all-time highs today as well at 1,600. I did not move as much as Micron, but this is another one that continues to defy expectations. And if we are looking at this say on the weekly, it has shot past all of our extension targets. Uh so I don't even know how to map this out anymore outside of going to this last little consolidation zone. And we could perhaps say that we're getting some kind of fivewave structure with a wave 1 2 3 4 5. And sometimes the fifth wave can be the longest and strongest of these waves. Let's just go back to the weekly because it's the easier way to do it.

[00:09:01]And we'll now map out an extension just based off of this area here on SanDisk.

[00:09:08]So we'll take the swing low in this correction to the high right there and then to the low. Really the 4 hour would be better to sharpen this up. So we just blew past the 1618. And if we're taking it from here, this would suggest that maybe we could get to 2,800.

[00:09:23]Unbelievable how much um these names have moved just in a matter of months. So if we're taking the September lows or the July lows here to where we are now, this is going to make you sad. Almost 4,000%.

[00:09:39]3900%.

[00:09:41]All right. Now, I haven't looked at the rest of these, but let's just check in with WDC and the others. So WDC up on the week as well. Again, a very similar move off that low last April. And let's just see how far this one has moved up.

[00:10:00]We're not really charting anything useful here outside of saying, will you look at it? Look how far that thing's moved. 1,700%. Oh my god. All right, let's keep going. And last one, we'll just check in with Seagate STX. And there we are for Seagate. And same thing. It's like where are you going to if you're not in these or you're not day trading them maybe these pullbacks will give you a little bit of an opportunity but you really have to monitor your position if you are going to get in with these names and I would suggest that there are safer plays 1300% for Seagate.

[00:10:36]So still momentum coming into this space and that means that we saw some of the foc names pull back but I think they will soon see inflows again. You know what? And before I get into the stocks from our watch list and our active trades, I'm just going to check in with IGV because certain corners of the software market did stall out a little bit. The indicy itself was flat on the day, but certain names pulled back a good bit. I would suggest that's just rotation, but we have to realize that we are getting into a bit of resistance on IGV after this breakout. Now, we do have higher price expectations for IGV, but we are getting into the confluence model center band, the top of it right here, which normally provides a bit of resistance, and we have the 200 day moving average overhead at $98. So, between this level here at 95 to 98, I imagine we are going to chop around a little bit. Maybe we'll even pull back to test our breakout zone at just under $90. But we also have a swing low here from the 21st of January. So we could see a little bit of struggle here. And if we can get above the 200 day moving average, then we might be a little bit more free to run and could head back into a longer term and more durable uptrend. All right, for the meat of the video, I'm just going to do a rapid fire round today through our watch list and my personal open trades just to see what's worth talking about. There a few other names that I'm watching for potential entries. I'm trying to limit my positions, but I won't get into those just for sake of time today. Uh, and we'll talk about the things we've been tracking here. So, first one on the list, AVGO, just opened a position today. I've been watching it in this consolidation range, it looked a little bit weak last week, and when we got this pop today, that caught my interest uh that we're starting to see volume pick up that perhaps this could actually be a flag that breaks to the upside. Now, I got in once price dropped. Uh, so I was paying less for options. Got the January 15th, 2027 450 calls because we're assuming this is going to head up to about 550 to 565 for AVGO. So, that is a new entry there. We're just below the 50% extension level. A bit of resistance overhead, but this looks like it's going to attempt to push higher now. It could correct all the way down to, you know, 395 and the flag could still be in play.

[00:13:05]So, watch those levels to the downside.

[00:13:08]Okay, Baba, not much to say. Just holding support now. Not much to say. A lot of these software names just hanging out today. AAM trying to push higher.

[00:13:17]We've almost closed the gap here, but it is still struggling a little bit. If you look at the 4 hour, it's just been riding the confluence model center band and now is getting inside. I have a feeling this might not hit the 175 target that we had for it and may pull back more before it finds a base and it could drop all the way to 120. So, I'm inclined to take some more profits on AKM, but I'm going to give it a couple more days. All right, speaking of photonics and weakness, uh, we saw a little bit of a pullback in Poet today, down, I think over 12% at one point, 13%, closed the day down just under 12%.

[00:13:53]So, this has been very volatile since breaking out of its trading range. And if you've been here for a while, you know that we got into it way back here at about $5 for the first entry and then it broke out of this multi- Give me one second. Well, let's look at this on log just because the moves have been crazy.

[00:14:14]So, this multi-year range, we got that breakout and volatility has really picked up now. Now we are holding the golden pocket right now and we are on daily RSI support. So if I go back to the daily chart, yes we have deviated back underneath this range but this was our overhead RSI resistance broke out came back in and now have back tested it twice for support. We are making higher lows. If we can hold this golden pocket I think this could still go on a very meaningful move higher and I am still positioned for that. I've taken a decent bit of profit, but I still have a lot active in this particular position and have just accepted that it's going to be volatile. And the thing that's letting me hold on is getting in early. If you got in once we popped to 25 in the overnight price action and then saw the position quickly pull back to 11, that is a scary ride indeed. So volatility, uh, I would say expect that to remain elevated. But if we can hold a higher low, I'm optimistic that this can have another meaningful push higher. All right, Nvidia, we almost got to my reload level today after we took some profits on the initial position. We're playing this longer into the fall. We retested the previous all-time high pretty much to the dollar at 212, just under 212. I thought we would maybe get a little bit lower into this 210 level. Between 200 and 210 is where I would love to get back into Nvidia, but the optimized trend held as a bit of support. That previous high held as support. We're still elevated in terms of mean reversion and RSI, but if we do go to the smaller time frames, uh we are starting to get close to getting a mean reversion dot. The thing that has me thinking we're going to head a little bit lower is actually this RSI uptrend on the 4 hour that has failed which is suggesting that we could drop just a little bit lower. And if we look at Nvidia on the 1 hour, we are in the confluence model lower band which suggests we could move down to this range around 209. So we're getting close to an interesting re-entry. We're already oversold on the 1 hour, but I'd love to see the 4 hour get reset a little bit more on Nvidia. All right, Apple was positive for most of the day, sold off into the end of the day a little bit, and we're getting really close to our near-term price target, that 318. So, it's almost time to take profits. We're starting to get a bearish divergence on the 4hour RSI. And I don't know why I have that trend line turned on for the other time frames, but that is something to be aware of. But this can still run higher for a few days. So I've got my alert set. Just waiting for that to happen. Uh decent day for Tesla.

[00:17:02]Closed back above 430 confluence model upper band. So we're bouncing from this RSI breakout zone. Assuming we are going to head a little bit higher into that uh I'm hoping the 475 range to close our daily gap. All right, Qualcomm very positive day. 52- week highs on Qualcomm. It does look like we're now in striking distance of the $290 price target that we've been discussing for quite some time now. So, uh, as a reminder, we got in back here and it has been quite the ride on Qualcomm. AET also a strong day. It did pull back a little bit into the close, but nice gap up. We've almost hit our near-term price target at 160. I think we could extend higher to hit that 170. Chop around a little bit and our eventual price target is up here at 190. So nothing to say there. All right. If we look at LES, really positive day it at the start of the day and then a good bit of selling rejecting off the 200 day moving average. So this got us our gap close from the 13th of March and then we sold off fairly aggressively from that point after that pop up. Uh that was not exact, but let's say roughly a 9% sell-off, but we still have more to run in terms of daily mean reversion and RSI. And if we are looking at things on the 4 hour. We are now expanding into the upper band, we're getting pretty extended, but this could easily hit our breakout price target of $4.60 in this golden pocket before pulling back on the 4 hour. All right, ENTG nice recovery, too, after a breakdown. It actually almost hit its downside price target from this little tightening range, which we can delete that now. So, ENTG seems to be recovering. Just a little bit of deviation on the RSI breakdown. Not much to say because we have much higher price targets. Just going back to it. Give me a second. There we are. Much higher price targets on ENTG up in the 350 range from this multi-year breakout. Um, so all right, Axon just chopping around. ODS pretty good day.

[00:19:10]Pulled back a little bit. Kind of closed middle of the range, but it's bouncing where we're hoping it would bounce from.

[00:19:15]We're still in this compressing range on the RSI and since we're coming from oversold conditions on the daily, I'm assuming this is going to lead to a break to the upside and we have our positive pattern break pointing up here to about $18. We're that's almost a doubling from where we are right now.

[00:19:33]So, let's see if we can do that. RDW, we already covered really strong today. LAC just hanging out. Um, but decent recovery from last week. US really nice move. didn't quite make a fresh swing high, but I would love to see this get above that $30 mark. We're still targeting 45 for US. All right, UMY decent recovery as well. I'm almost neutral on the position again after this breakdown, but I do think this is one that I am going to sell if we get into that mid9 range because there is a good chance we could reject from this trend line and from our RSI trend lines as well. and I want to slim down my positions. CLF also great breakout today. So, we broke out of this downtrend last week, got above the 200 day moving average. Really strong and actually in overnight hours, this was up even higher, I believe. Yeah, we pushed all the way past $12 in the overnight price action. So, great day for CLF, for RDW and others. And for CLF, we're targeting way up here at $32.

[00:20:40]And sorry, I think I just touched the mic. That would still almost be a 3x from here. Not quite, but um still not too late to get in. We're extended right now. So, you know, time your entries, but doing well. All right. Uh iron little pop today on a partnership announcement uh and some new data center capacity that is supposed to increase their revenue. Hopefully, that can get us to the price targets we have mapped out up here at 86. I'm going to get out of this one. This isn't a long-term hold for me. I don't like their delilution and their debt, but it is what it is.

[00:21:12]All right. Uh TAC also attempted a breakout today. Actually kind of closed right on the breakout line. So this is putting a secondary target in play of about $17, which aligns with this falling wedge. We're finally going back into an uptrend. So seems like more positive momentum ahead for TAC. This one again is just a trade for me. Um but I will look at getting out of it if we get up there. NE strong day, but it rejected from the 200 day moving average. And just in terms of multi-time frame analysis, I think this is an interesting one because we broke out from our daily RSI downtrend and we that happened as we were breaking out of this falling wedge. Now, we saw this pop above resistance, but we're rejecting from the 200 day moving average. So, higher swing high. We're on our way to this short-term price target at 37. We have a higher ter price target at almost 55. This rejection happened right as we were into weekly RSI resistance. So you can't see it here because it's pulled back, but when we were touching the 200 day moving average, we were right on this trend line. So now the question is, are we going to break through this trend line? I think we can because it technically is our fourth time retest, but it stalled there a little bit today.

[00:22:25]And a breakout from the weekly RSI then would set us up on the daily to hit these higher price targets. So using multi-time frame analysis when you are looking at price action is very helpful.

[00:22:40]All right, plug positive day as well. No fresh swing high, but I do think we're still going to get to that 430. I have about 30% of my position left from entering down here. Um, but I'm slowly scaling out of it. All right, ENVX, another positive day. Didn't quite get to the 200 day moving average, but we're making higher swing highs, so we're maintaining that positive price structure. Not too much to say there. TE really positive day today as well. I took 10% profits at just under $10, but this I believe is also Yep. up in overnight price action to almost $1130.

[00:23:18]So just on the day today from where we were last week, which again was a pretty volatile pullback, but let's just Is this Tuesday as well? Yeah, that's all Tuesday. That's Friday. All right, here's our Tuesday candle. Today we also did 40% on TE. So two stocks gaining 40% in a day. It's quite something. Uh and this is in the energy space. So we're looking at $13.80 roughly. And then that would be from this symmetrical triangle pattern, but that activates a multi-week cup and handle which is pointing up here to $18.80 almost. So, I would imagine we could get up here, maybe pull back a little bit to reset the charts and then move higher.

[00:24:07]All right, Adobe pretty weak. Still under resistance, trying to flip the trend. Not doing it. Unity finding a bit of strength today. Sorry, I have way too many lines going on. I thought Unity would continue to pull back a little bit more, but it's it's trying it's trying to hold the the uptrend. Um, I still could see us getting all the way back down here to about 21 $22 and I would maybe add a little bit to the position there. Who knows? Uh, all right, Deckers. Very strong day today, I believe. Did we get all the way to the 786 and after hours? No, we didn't quite. We got to 11137. So, uh, we got in last week after earnings and this is continuing to run. So, Decker's doing well. Celsius not coming back to life yet. I'm keen to add to this position if we do get a resolution in Iran, but uh we're not seeing that yet. It is very beaten up, but um it doesn't seem like it's quite time for it to move yet. And I can delete this little pattern we were tracking there on the 4 hour. Billy Billy also still very beaten up, but starting to find some support. JD was weak today, which was surprising to see Billy Billy have strength and JD be weak, but um you know, the position's still profitable and we're holding for some of these higher price target. It's just been a choppy road and we are still making higher lows as of right now. And actually, we should connect the dots here just to see if we have Oh, that is one little concerning thing right there on JD that we have to be aware of. This little local uptrend does seem to be breaking down a little bit. So, if we can't hold 4hour support, we're pretty oversold on the 4 hour. So, if we can't bounce from this point, uh we should be just slightly cautious on JD. All right.

[00:25:59]Uh Joby breakout today. So, nice to see on Joby. We can take our lower time frame price target off that was up here at $12. And now we have a 4hour cup and handle. This isn't the line because we mapped this out on the 4 hour which is pointing up here at $14. So Joby doing well and ACR was doing well up almost 10% at one point on the day. I know it doesn't look like it from these candles, but moving from $637 up to $6.77.

[00:26:29]Settling with a fairly neutral candle, but we did make a slightly higher swing high and we still have our price target in play of $10.38.

[00:26:40]So, lots of opportunity out there. Solar sector is still moving, continuing that breakout from Friday. And I think that's about it. So far, I saw a little pop and a pullback. Yeah, not too much to say there. And you know what? I don't want to get into all the other charts because we could spend a lot of time talking about quantum and other things, but I hope that's a helpful overview. I would say stay sharp, stay nimble. Money is rotating quickly. There are lots of opportunities out there, but that cuts both ways. So, risk management, position sizing, all that good stuff, very important. Hope you have a good night, and I'll see you uh probably tomorrow for another daily market recap. Bye for now.

[00:27:25]This isn't financial advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Do your own research.