The Real Reason Russia Is Still Standing (Follow the Oil) - Trisha Curtis

追加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]To understand a nation, you need to understand their energy. If you want to understand their economy, you understand their war machine, everything, you have to understand energy. I mean, Russia is uh doing quite well. Like, their economy is doing quite well. Who knows that who has paid attention to Russia's fuel consumption as of late. Their natural gas consumption is up. Their oil consumption is up. They are fueling their wartime machine with their own energy production. And it's helping fuel their economy as well. It's helping offset all these sanctions and the decline they're actually doing. And I'm not not I'm not defending Russia by any means. Just saying that if if you're not paying attention to that, you're missing the big picture. America, the US, the United States of America, we are the largest producer in the world. And that's not televised enough, right?

[00:00:40]That's not talked about enough in the world is that we're the largest producer of crude oil in the word world by a pretty wide margin.

[00:00:46]>> So we we're number one. We're actually literally number one. We're not just like doing better than we used to. We're the best.

[00:00:53]>> We're the best. Yeah. 100%.

[00:00:54]>> Who's number two? So, uh, number two is basically, uh, Saudi Arabia and and Russia are tied for number two. So, they're they're right around when you include crude oil and like other liquids, they're right around 11 million barrels per day roughly. Um, so we are we're not a little bit more. We are, you know, over 13 million barrels a day. At the end of last year, we nearly touched 14 million barrels a day of production.

[00:01:16]And then you think about, okay, well, how much do we consume, right, as a nation, right? Are we are we self-sufficient? Are we energy independent? energy independent. We're not energy independent, but we're pretty damn close and we are definitely energy dominant. Uh we consume about 20 million barrels a day as a nation. Okay? So about 10 a little under 10 n between 9 and 10 million barrels a day of gasoline. And so that's why right now you're feeling this like this is the 9 to 10 million barrels a day is what America consumes for gasoline. Um and then you have diesel and propane and everything else that's all included in that 20 million barrels a day. So that's the number 20 million barrels a day that we consume. We're producing you know 13 and change right now almost 14 million barrels a day at the end of last year and the global market is producing and consuming 100 million barrels a day. So it's game changed. So it's game changed US energy um dominance and independence and security and global actually energy security. Um we no longer have you know the strangle hold on the natural gas produced like Russia because of our natural gas like we've we we're checking it by every extra molecule we put on the water. Are we How do we even know how much oil is on this planet? We hear these things, you know, man, Trump is going haywire in the world. It's kind of crazy to watch, but you know, it was it was early this year that he executed this sort of extraction of Nicholas Maduro >> January 3rd. Yep.

[00:02:38]>> And uh yeah, it's like happy new year.

[00:02:42]We're doing this.

[00:02:45]It's generally a good idea, I think. I mean, he would like the Biden administration, I think, issued like a warrant for his arrest. This wasn't like out of nowhere.

[00:02:53]>> No, every everyone hates hated Maduro, even illegitimate, stole the election, not a just a thug.

[00:02:59]>> Um, >> so you hear this thing said that Venezuela has the largest oil um oil deposits on in the world, maybe even up to a trillion barrels of oil. How do we know that? How do we know how much we have here? Where do these numbers from around the world come from? Is it like geological scanning things that let us see into the ground a like ultrasound something? Like how do you how do we know? Cuz it's like you're drilling down miles, 10 miles, and then you're going in directions. How do you know? How do you know what's there? It's not like you can send a camera down and know anything.

[00:03:41]>> No. And if you knew that perfectly, then you would never drill a dry hole, which, you know, in the US, we haven't drilled, you know, we we typically don't drill dry holes anymore, but if you've been around the oil and gas industry long enough, you did drill dry holes. So those are estimates. And I would say, you know, I'll caveat a lot of this of like typically th those reserves are estimates. And I call them I think they're hor um you know, it's like and I'm not that I'm not bull on that Venezuela has a lot of oil. They absolutely do. So does Canada. Um so does the US. Like we have more oil than we estimate, but it's economic estimates. And I used to tell people when I'd be in when I was in Bahrain or I was in Saudi Arabia or I was in Oxford and this was like 2010s when oil's booming and they would ask me, you know, like, well, how much do you have? And I'm like, you know what people in the oil and gas industry in the US are not doing? They're not sitting around talking about how much oil is in the ground. They're drilling it and they're just getting it out and making money. We are not concerned about that because our recovery factor in the US is so low because we're cracking this tight rock.

[00:04:36]>> What does that mean recovery factor?

[00:04:37]>> It's the the percentage of oil that we think we've recovered, right? there's we know there's more oil in that rock in that like sponge. Um and so we're fracking it and we're we're getting less than 10% out. So if we were able to get more we know there's more oil down there, right? High oil prices would help higher oil prices, you know, say if you sustain at 90 or something, but lots of things, right? So we they're estimates on and usually based on economics. So I'm it's not that I'm against I think there's a lot of opportunity for Venezuela. Absolutely. They do have a lot of oil, but those estimates got thrown out. You know, that was there was a lot of talk on like, oh, they have more oil than anyone in the world.

[00:05:13]Maybe, but like this is thick gooby oil.

[00:05:16]Um, it's viscous and um and I don't know intimately. I do know the Canadian oil sands very well. Um, it's and it's so incredible because it's like the Canadian oil sand. It's this thick, heavy crude. And so, your extraction process is different than if you're obviously what we're doing here in the US. Um, but it's it's oil and gas. So the optimism is real, right? And you can be optimistic on that. But in terms of when you hear these estimates, they're just estimates. Um, and the oil and gas industry, you know, the thing I often hear is that, and I get this question a lot from executives, is how much spare capacity does the world do we have, right? How much more oil could say Saudi Arabia produce if they want to turn the taps on? And it's amazing because I just pulled I was just looking up the latest figures. Like as of December, Saudi Arabia was producing almost 12 million barrels a day and of crude and liquids, right? That's a lot of damn crude oil.

[00:06:05]They had ramped up oil production last year. And everybody says, "Oh, they don't have the spare capacity. They can't do it." And I'm thinking they already were doing it. Like you just were asleep and not looking at the numbers. And so they have uh it's they don't frack oil. Like I mean maybe little fracts but like I say when they stick a straw on the ground they get oil out almost literally their their break even costs are under $10 a barrel to produce oil in Saudi Arabia and very similarly in Russia in some cases. So it's very very cheap and so for us we're talking about $65 oil and are we making money and so we have to work harder. We don't have as good of you know reservoirs and everything and it's it's easier over there. For Venezuela, you've got this thick goopy oil. You were producing about a million barrels per day. Um I think at their height they were producing around three million barrels per day. So >> then they nationalized it all. And then everybody that didn't want to live in a hell hole left and now it's all a derelict mess from what I understand.

[00:07:00]>> So uh this why I say when you get energy right, you get your economy right, you get everything right. But you have to have institutions and rule of law. And I would say if the London School of Economics taught me anything, it is that in like we spent a lot institutions. you you have to have the foundations that let this work. And that's why America, we can have crappier Iraq and we can do it better because we do have rule of law and we have institutions and we don't nationalize assets and people have property rights and they can go do something and they can make a profit. If you can't do that, you can't get it right. And so the opportunity for, you know, for Venezuela is if they get if you get the contract structure right. Uh it's the, you know, this could be an amazing win for Venezuela and and really a amazing win for for Latin America would be huge. So, um I think the the removal of Maduro, I mean, one of the many uh one of the many impressive feats a lot of people, you know, I'm I'm actually a Trump supporter and and like a lot of his policies, but I think it was we've actually seen and we hear a lot of criticism of our military right now, but really from a military standpoint, the feats that this military has done is is very impressive. I mean, that was such a effective seizure of Maduro. Um the Chinese were there uh you know hours before with this big delegation and I I love that we just slapped him in the face and we're like we'll just grab that guy. Um you know like you know and can >> I we need to have like a button that where the eagle sound happens in this you know America.

[00:08:25]>> Um so just kind of like and and no we just like grabbed him and you know we didn't we didn't mess with anything. and we just like grabbed him and took him in like now he'll have a trial like a few years from now or something like so he's gone and and that was very effective and that was a really nice check to uh to to Russia and Saudi or to Russia sorry not Saudi Arabia to Russia and China to say okay you know like you're in our backyard we'll just we'll just show you that we can do that. So there was I think there was a multi-prong thing, but from an oil standpoint, absolutely. They have a lot of reserves. I don't know if they the numbers that are thrown out are ridiculous.

[00:08:55]The reserves are kind of like um it's like saying my house is worth X. Your house is worth whatever, somebody's going to pay for it, right? Um so it is literally whatever like the market's going to do. Like if you can get people in and you can produce it, that's what you have. So we have to think about it more like that. And I would say the oil and gas industry, we don't talk about reserves as much anymore because we went from producing 4.8 8 million barrels a day as a nation under the uh when Obama came into office, you know, under Obama to now producing almost 14 million barrels a day at the end of 2025.

[00:09:24]That's, you know, >> more than pushing 4x.

[00:09:28]>> Exactly. You're you're three or yeah >> three and a half, let's say.

[00:09:31]>> Like so so 4.8 to to 14 million barrels a day. You're 3x. That's really impressive. And so when when you're doing that as a country that has rule of law and is exporting this crude oil, we have helped increase energy security globally because you're not having to go to these countries that they might work one day but doesn't work the next. So when we think about the reserves in Saudi Arabia, yes, they I think they have more spare capacity than than we realize if they want to increase output, they could. Uh back to our 100 million barrel day figure. Have we ever asked them to? This why I always ask the oil and gas industry. They say, "Oh, could they produce that?" And I thought the only time we ever did this was in 2020 when we were producing over 12 million barrels or we we were raising output and Saudi Arabia went to 12 million barrels a day and so did Russia to flood the market and um that's the only time it happened but the global demand wasn't there right so the global demand has never said hey we need you all guys to be producing 12 million barrels a day all of you and it just hasn't been there and so the other thing is you have to realize is that when oil prices are high production comes with it so the longer we have these oil price is up here.

[00:10:34]Everybody in their dog is going to be producing oil and they there you have every incentive to increase this output.

[00:10:39]So the straight of hormones I don't care if it's open for a week or 10 days or 3 weeks every moment that it's opened everybody's rushing to get their product out there because they need that revenue. And so you will get you will get the stuff coming out and the same incentive for for how we worked around the straight over is that I think that um that analyst that I'm blinking on this the the the equity firm or whatever the sent analyst out there a few weeks ago and said that the um there were 15 ships moving a day versus a couple. And I thought okay well 15 ships moving a day means there's more crude flowing. But what happened was actually the the pipeline, the east west pipeline that Saudi Arabia has. Yeah. Um wasn't full, right? It was running two and a half million barrels a day and then the straight of Hamuz closes and they're like, "Hey, we're going to fill that puppy up." And now it's running 7 million barrels a day. And so that's what the oil gas industry does is they obviously have to have the pipeline to make this work, but they move around obstacles much much quicker than people think.

[00:11:37]>> Um I want to shift gears and talk about geopolitics. one story that is being told and maybe even not mostly from the Trump administration itself but is is that this is all boxing in Chinese proxies >> in each case like Venezuela >> probably Cuba you know the the soon to be US territory of Cuba I'm laughing I hope I kind of hope it happens that way um but uh and then this Iran this Iran situation it's it's complete basically like frontal assault on these proxies that we have allowed particularly with Venezuela in our hemisphere have allowed like actual stated like like geopolitical adversaries to mess around in do you think that that's what's do you think that that's like how big of a percentage of that is because you know just to be mchavelian it's horrible to see tens of thousands of people killed by their government but there's all kinds government's doing horrible stuff that we don't do anything about all the time.

[00:12:43]>> Absolutely. Including China.

[00:12:45]>> So, it's like we don't So, it's like it's a little bit of like a convenient motivation where you can claim there's a moral reason, but the reality is like that's just selective and it's really about other stuff. And that maybe is that creates reasons why now's the right time and moral cover, but it's not the whole picture because if it was, we'd be everywhere.

[00:13:07]>> No, absolutely. And you can't be everywhere, right? We only have so many spheres. And that's the thing of like and I think China would love to see us push off the sphere. So there's an argument to be made that you've got all these like different things going on and and so Venezuela. So you you have you know too much too much influence from Russia and China within the southern hemisphere within Latin America and it would be nice to not have as much of that right with Cuban missile crisis type of stuff like we would like to we we know we're going to have future conflict with China like in if you're not aware it's going to happen right we will have future conflict with China it's happening um when it happens exactly like I don't know but um >> it'd be great if it didn't happen >> it'd be great if it didn't happen but if you they are planning for it so you have to plan for it So >> maybe we'll team up against the AI overlord robot war and maybe maybe we'll be on the same side. Maybe there'll be like there'll be a moment where it's like oh remember we thought we were going to kill each other but now we're fighting together against the Terminator. Um, so there's but there's this like and so if you think about that of just like and I know people don't like everybody being China hawkish and I think it's okay to be a China hawk but you have like okay you have Iran and you have Venezuela and you've got and you've got Russia and you and you've got little things kind of everywhere and all those would be nice to like wipe off the chessboard when you're dealing with the big one. So you you can't have everything going on at the same time and and because those are all connected with China and Russia that they could flare those up and and make those a problem to where you are occupied over there and and I mean China's been actually open about saying they're happy that we are occupied in everyone's occupied with with Ukraine because they're not paying attention to what's going on in the Indoacific and so they're not dealing with China. And this is real, right?

[00:14:46]They're buying all the stuff like Europe is buying all the stuff from China.

[00:14:49]They're not dealing with them on serious stuff because they're preoccupied with their green policies and their dev devastation of their economy. And we don't talk about how much money the oil and gas industry lost chasing lower carbon bull and um I mean chasing this stuff that was so expensive like you weren't making money in 2014 when you had $100 oil um or 20 2008 when you had $100 oil or $150 oil, but you're making money on solar and wind. No, you need to stay in your lane and drill for oil and gas. And I think the pride in it is really important, but like executing and doing well. And so we had this short period where people kind of lost their minds and did this whole net zero thing which is very geopolitical. It's I mean that was the international energy agency that said we're going to do this net zero push. Everyone's going to go we're not going to demand oil anymore. It's going to decline and so we won't need this.

[00:15:36]>> Wasn't the entire premise of the International Energy Agency to not do that but to actually like >> Well, didn't that get created after the oil shock?

[00:15:46]>> Yep. to basically try to help coordinate energy security. Yep. Am I misremembering?

[00:15:51]>> No, it's right. And International Energy Agency was founded in the in the 70s during the oil price shocks of I believe it was 73 could have it second first shock to basically make sure everybody had strategic oil supplies and that we had enough in the world and that we would be be able to do this. So super ironic when COVID happens and literally the quote is they said we're gonna we are we're going to make sure we're gonna um use this moment in time this COVID period to move past traditional fuel I call them traditional fuels not fossil but moves past fossil fuels and move to these other forms of energy and nobody was like well this is crazy and this doesn't make sense and the oil and gas industry they had all this pressure and you saw this with you know engine number one that got board seats on Exxon and it was the same day Exxon Chevron, Shell was all the same day, the board day where they lost seats and and they had to they it was State Street Vanguard and Black Rockck all bent the knee um to do all this ESG stuff and I mean the engine number one I've seen the woman on TV and she says Konokco Phillips it's called Kono and the fact that you're on TV and you can even say that no one has no one's corrected you all this time but like so we they allowed this to happen right and I say this because good leaders and stuff like Chris Wright is now our secretary of energy. He was a service company, so he could do this.

[00:17:07]But, you know, he was okay being a publicly traded company that would say no and say absolutely not. We are not going green. This is not an energy transition. Here's what's what's actually happening. He actually went out and bought billboards in Denver and um thanked Northace for supporting the industry. Um because that there was a whole Northace debacle with jackets not selling to the industry.

[00:17:26]>> It's a lot of social signaling. It's a lot of I mean >> virtues are going in >> at the most basic level to as I've tried to understand this with your help you're battling physics. So you've got these things in oil, gas, coal, all the the that are physical and and that also move turbines. And there's this other part that when the um when the freeze happened in here in Austin in in in Texas and when uh when Spain went through that blackout about this time last year, >> both in both instances, I I sort of went to school a little bit on this. I learned this thing that nobody teaches you unless you happen to stumble across it, which is those turbines that move to get the electrons going so that all this stuff works and babies don't die in an incubator in a hospital that needs to be have reliable power 24/7.

[00:18:18]>> Is that that movement creates this thing called momentum and that when there's disruptions, they keep moving because momentum because physics and the turbines on the um the turbines on a windmill don't move at a consistent rate. So that's not helpful. That's not and and also they don't move when the wind's not blowing.

[00:18:43]>> And the solar panels have no movement whatsoever. They're solid state technologies.

[00:18:49]So you have this kind of fundamental thing about like the way reality works and physics and motion and momentum that all this energy talk all this liy dah unicorn stuff it's like they're literally betting against physics >> and not just betting against physics.

[00:19:06]What frustrates me is that so drive through Wyoming with all these wind turbines that they have them right and Wyoming is windy except there are times where the wind doesn't blow right when it's really cold the wind doesn't blow in extreme temperatures which is arguably what the far left and the green movement and everything and this ESG craze and net zero that's what they're doing it for right we're all going to go to hell in a hand basket the world's going to end in 10 years we're burning up and so we've got to lower CO2 emissions aggressively if you believe in extreme climate you are building the wrong things with wind solar batteries cuz they don't work in extreme temperatures because that's >> such a good point. I never thought of that.

[00:19:41]>> Like the wind doesn't blow when it's really hot. So when I'm driving in the summer in Wyoming, it's 90°. It the wind is not blowing. It doesn't blow when it's really cold. And so those are extreme temperatures. That's what I'm told by the climate crazies that that's what's going to happen. We're all dying.

[00:19:53]And so you're not that the wind doesn't work. And then the solar panels don't work when it's obviously when it's nighttime, but they don't work when it gets snowed on. So if you're banking on climate change, then we're banking where we're gonna have snow all the time. So that doesn't work. And then the batteries also don't work. Like electric vehicles don't work in extreme temperatures because they lose their, you know, they lose that uh they lose energy, right? So when it's really cold, I I can't turn on the heater on my in the Tesla, right? Um or it doesn't work as well. And so I lose my range.

[00:20:21]>> They're less efficient for sure.

[00:20:22]>> Sorry. Less efficiency. And over time, and I actually was just having this conversation this morning with someone, over time, your your um wind turbines, they degrade, as we know. There's no ability to recycle them. You can literally fly over Oklahoma and I you look out the window and you see all these like piles of stuff, it's just it's just win turbines stacked up. So they die and when you're driving through Wyoming and all parts where you see these winter turbines and I'm disgusted with how much renewables the Texas has in the grid because it's it's cost it's it's cost Texans a lot of money but it's just it's irresponsible energy policy.

[00:20:53]Um so you have all this wind but then the solar and by the way both these come from China which I can't stand but the solar degrades over time too right its efficiency you lose it. It does degrade over time and so you are think about all the energy. It's kind of like where we're talking about ethanol. How much work are you making, you know, from farming and and processing and everything to get it into your gasoline pool. I mean, how much work how much energy is going to making a solar panel?

[00:21:15]It is a crap ton. It is forced labor in China. The solar ingot wafer that every you basically 99% of it comes from the province of Xening Jang, which is where the forced labor and all the surveillance and control is. That's where the solar ingot wafer comes from.

[00:21:28]So even if you're making the solar panel here, the ingot wafer is probably coming from the province of Jing Jang, which is coming from coal fired power generation because you need heavy processed heat to to make this stuff. Right.

[00:21:38]>> It's you strip mine, then you pour mass amounts of energy to produce this piece of uh photovotayic technology >> that then degrades over time.

[00:21:48]>> Exactly.

[00:21:49]>> And there's no world in which the math on the ROI allin possibly works. like take that money and put it in an index fund and >> or or put a complete carbon capture. You all the money you spent on this greenwashing, you probably could have captured the CO2 from every coal fired power plant and just we kept burning. I mean, >> we shouldn't even I mean I don't want to go we don't need to even go in this this is not the conversation to like have a debate about um climate change first of all because we're both in agreement. So people who are watching are like what about climate change? Sorry. Like change the change the channel. Also >> geopolitics is so much geopolitics and military like the reality of the world is so much more important right now.

[00:22:25]>> I mean here's what I'll say to to just like kick the can on the climate thing.

[00:22:30]>> Um the IPCC and I'm sure you've read about all this stuff like crazy. Well well you you I mean >> here's how I understand it. you round it out and then we'll talk about wars and and oil oil >> oil on the international stage.

[00:22:46]>> Um, if you just accept that the IPC is not a scam, but that it's actually composed of at least some well-intended non-corrupt scientists who aren't doing like cook the books hockey hockey hockey stick nonsense.

[00:23:03]Their actual reports say that in 2100 the planet will be many multiples richer than we are today, >> right?

[00:23:12]>> Like that's what the actual underlying report says by the so-called like experts in climate that all the the green types say we should be trusting the science. So if you trust the science and actually look at the the people who are doing the actual research, even though I think a lot of that's deeply flawed and trying to predict complex systems that can't be predicted, period, under any circumstances at all, they project the world's going to be better in in 2100. So what are we talking about?

[00:23:39]>> Right. Right. I think that's the So it's, you know, the IPCC and I do think it's a bunch of I think maybe some of the work that went into it wasn't entirely corrupt, but probably most of it was. the international panel for climate change which is part of the United Nations which is heavily influenced by China. Uh China has an un like an like an undue influence and like a massive influence within the United Nations. It is no longer the entity that it was when we came out of World War II and put this together. So it is bias and it is corrupt and so you have to realize that like if you have an incentive to sell your product well then maybe you would incentivize all this stuff. So I think it's really important to just keep that in context. But >> and you said you said earlier that they h they have a bunch of coal but no oil and natural gas. So China China has very little incentive to have this product be promoted.

[00:24:25]>> Well, we can talk about that a little bit in this this geopolitical of like how much they have and what they're actually doing. But when we're thinking about just to to round off the the reason I have a fundamental problem with that, you know, and now people like pretending that the net zero thing didn't happen. It's like well how much money you made investments on this, right? And that really frustrates me that was people's good hardworking dollars, you know, invested into this stuff. And for companies, if you know, I'm you invested in X company that produced oil and gas, but they went crazy on some net zero stuff to pander to their investors as opposed to just standing up to them and saying, "No, this is stupid. Here's what we're going to do." I think they would have they would have ruled the day, but they didn't have the initiative and the gumption to stand up for themselves. And so that frustrates me. And the oil and gas industry needed to do a better job and needs to remember that for when the next battle comes around. But that net zero thing all comes from the IPCC. So it all comes from this panel on climate change and this you know we're burning up in in in 10 years or whatever. And so actually when you look at those figures from the IPCC what I don't like is the hyperbole that so if you look read the documents you see where the ranges are massive right so even if you actually >> the error band is huge like it's we could be it could be total devastation or everything is like perfectly wonderful and it's like well then how is this what is this is this science what are we talking about? more importantly is that if you do everything to the net zero 2050, if you do all of that, you are not guaranteed to fix the pro the supposed problem. So for me, it's like you're going to tank your economies, you're going to go from 100 million barrels of oil demand to 75 million barrels of demand by 2030. So with a handful of years, you're going to take 25% of oil demand off. And then you're not even guaranteed you're going to fix the damn problem that you think we have.

[00:26:00]Holy moly. That's the problem with that I have is that you are it's economic devastation. And that's what's happening in Europe is that they are committed to that. And the only country in the world that's tied themselves legally bound is the UK to net zero. And so they are I mean it's asinine. This is ridiculous.

[00:26:16]But they're losing like not just economic growth, but their capacity to power their nations. Their capacity to turn their lights on, their capacity to make ammunition. And obviously we've seen that literally in this war where um partly the UK says we don't believe in this. But it's also partly is they have no capacity to actually help us.

[00:26:31]>> Yeah. The Israelis had more jets than the than than the UK, I think.

[00:26:35]>> Yes.

[00:26:36]>> It's like, okay, so country with like 10 million people has more fighter jets than the United Kingdom, the former empire of the world. That is just so insane.

[00:26:45]>> When you study nations and you study their energy and their economy, if they don't have the energy, they don't have an economy.

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