Who Overperformed & Who Failed in the Premier League

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]we can cover off some of the amazing stories like Sunderland, my former club, making Europe in their first season back in the Premier League, absolutely fantastic achievement. Um, and and one which has been like consistently achieved throughout the season. Very very few clubs make Europe in their first season in the in the Premier League.

[00:00:17]>> Um, and and obviously we've covered before the Brighton, Brenford, Bournemouth achievements in terms of being really competitive top 10 Premier League sides when not spending all that much money. Earlier a couple of days ago, I sent you a table um which took club's wage bills, amortized transfer spend, agency fee spend, chuck >> total cost, >> chuck them all together, compared effectively compared them against the amount of points that you would expect to receive for that amount of total spending and compared it against the actual points and I thought it was absolutely fascinating. I thought it threw up some really interesting sort of counternarratives in terms of who who actually has done well this season as in outperformed or underperformed what might have been expected because you know we can get caught into this thing and saying well you know West Ham went down and Tottenham didn't quite go down but you know let's not pretend that West Ham and Tottenham are in the same place right I mean that is actually that twopoint difference between West Ham and Tottenham is a significantly bigger underperformance than Tottenham than it is from West Ham But there are other examples in there as well. Do do you want to read a couple out?

[00:01:25]>> Well, Sunderland >> performing top of the table with Arsenal. Basically a points difference of 18 points more than they were expected to get. That's how we'll talk about them.

[00:01:34]>> And just let's talk about the total spend of Sunderland on those three things, right? So wage bill, amotized, transfer fee, and agency spend. The total spend >> was 120. So wages 85, amotization 24, agents fees 11. So, a hugely and by the way, just and we'll throw this table up or we probably will have already done.

[00:01:55]I'll put this on the screen so those of you watching will be able to see this.

[00:01:59]Those of you listening, just just keep track if you can. But that is the lowest in this table 120 million >> lowest total spend. So, when you take into account wages, transfer fee spend amortized and agency spend, Sunderland had the lowest spend in the whole division. And yet they have qualified for the Europa League.

[00:02:21]>> Yeah.

[00:02:22]>> Absolutely massive outperformance.

[00:02:24]>> Incredible. And you know the similar outperformance as Arsenal from a points perspective. So again on this metric but Arsenal's ambitions obviously are very different to Sunderland's ambitions. So again coming back to this you know you look at the top kind of half of this table and it's very much predictable to the ways that we've talked about the success stories before. You have Brenford at three, Bournemouth at four.

[00:02:46]Um, you know, Brenford actually just missing out on European football, but still continuing to perform exceptionally. Bournemouth getting Europa League. Aston Villa.

[00:02:54]>> I think we got to highlight Aston Villa.

[00:02:55]>> Really interesting one. Yeah. Why?

[00:02:57]>> Well, because the other clubs we've been talking about have achieved this outperformance in the Premier League while not playing European football. And I think one of the big challenges for middle to upper middlesiz clubs trying to outperform in the Premier League is if they're also having to play European fixtures as well with a squad that generally speaking isn't quite as deep as Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool and so on and so forth. And that actually if you look at Newcastle for example has gradually ground them down over time.

[00:03:24]You know, having have a a really good period of success in the Premier League this season, frankly, they were pretty they were really pretty poor and one of the biggest underperformers on the chart. Villa, albeit that they have been poking their heads up into the top six spending bracket for them to get to and win in fact a European final at the same time as finishing in the Champions League places in the Premier League.

[00:03:47]This really suggests to me that we are now looking at in as much as there ever was such thing as the big six looks like a big seven now because Villa's persistent achievement of being in that top echelon persistently qualifying for Europe either for the Champions League or if in Europa League winning the Europa League means that their revenues are constantly ramping and ramping and that's what enabled them to spend more on wages this year than Spurs >> but the lowest transfer spend last summer because of how close they were to financial fair play um or whatever whatever we were on last year and sustainability problem sustainability and that's been a challenge for them for Newcastles. You've had a lot of complaining about the ability of some of those clubs to be able to spend in accordance with those teams that you class in the big six, but this table really and the success again this season and what we were talking about last week just breaks a little bit of that linkage between performance and spend. And it shows how well, you know, you may not necessarily be chasing that Premier League title if you're doing and operating like Villa are properly behind the scenes in the management, great players on the pitch who want to be there >> except when they play Spurs at home.

[00:04:48]>> Apart from when they play Spurs at home.

[00:04:50]Yeah. Yeah, >> I was I was on a good run there and I just broke it down.

[00:04:54]>> So, I guess the question question to ask of Villa next season is, >> you know, they're going to be in the Champions League with various of the other supposed big teams in transition with Arsenal maybe not quite having the same edge having won it this year. Is this a season where Villa potentially could look at it and go title?

[00:05:12]>> Is there any reason why not?

[00:05:14]>> No.

[00:05:14]>> Other than what's in the mind, we're not really a big six side. All we want to do is qualify for the Champions League. So, it's it's just going to be interesting to see what they're able to do during the summer and what frame of mind they come back in um in the new season because I think for the last five or six years, it's very much been a case of can we exploit the weakness of one or two of the other big clubs to get into the Champions League and then earn that money and increase our revenue to the point where we can keep on pushing our wages up and keep on pushing forward.

[00:05:40]Okay, you've now got your wage bill up to Charlie uh 273 million to >> 273 million against let's say Spurs.

[00:05:49]>> Uh oh, you have to go right down the bottom. 256 million.

[00:05:52]>> Right. So this season they've spent more on wages than Spurs. Liverpool.

[00:05:56]>> Liverpool 418 million, the highest wage bill in the Premier League.

[00:05:59]>> That's So So if you think about 400 being the biggest and Villa pushing towards 300, right? Those types of things. Yeah. Can they close the gap that little bit more but also keep their underdog performance you know edge in there in terms of saying right well actually you know we can we can start turning over some of these guys because we've said before in recent weeks that Liverpool Chelsea not in a great place right now so there is just that opportunity there Man City obviously since we since we've last been speaking Pep's departure from Man City has been confirmed um this isn't a football performance podcast so I don't sort of want to talk talk about it too broadly but there's obviously a question mark there over what will happen under new management. Just a question mark. It's a very strong squad. It's actually not it's no longer an aging squad. It's a really strong quite young squad, but there just a little bit of a question mark there in terms of what will happen without Pep.

[00:06:48]>> But your piece on the value of a manager being let's say 5 to 10%. Is actually played out in this table here because Man City sit pretty mid-table in their performance this season versus expectation. They are six points >> ahead of where the expected points for them was. Yeah.

[00:07:04]>> So that would fit your 5 to 10% impact of a top manager operating in a football club. That's the difference.

[00:07:12]>> But you know, nothing hugely surprising in there. All their numbers are pretty big. Total cost 615 million second um in the league, but they generate good revenues and they've got a pretty consistent model around the the rest of their business. So it's where you'd expect it to be. Man United was an outlier. Well, Man United, I think, is another really interesting mini narrative within this performance table, which is, you know, the the popular narrative is Man United are doing much better. Man United are on their way back. Man United is ceasing to be the show it has been in recent years.

[00:07:43]So, there's just a general sense of positivity around the whole thing. But if you actually look at it straight on, and this is in a season where they have not had European football, so they've been able to focus solely on the Premier League. Where are they in the in the performance table? 11th. So they're in the bottom half in the performance table still. They are still significantly underperforming their budget and their overall spend despite the fact that that budget actually has been significantly cut in in the last couple of years by Jim Ratcliffe since he went in there. So they've still got quite a long way to go. You know the the downward spiral might have been halted. The disaster might have been averted. But you know overall in a season where they didn't have European football is where they finished really a significant achievement on the amount they've been spending probably not. So next season with European football back and with a bit bit more pressure of expectation on >> Yeah. It be going to be really interesting to see >> with Man United the thing that stands out is actually the amortization number of 196. So near on 200 million. I think this is an interesting one because if you're Arsenal and your amotization is 172 million. You go okay fine that's a lot of spend but you've won the league.

[00:08:48]So you can justify your expend.

[00:08:52]United's recruitment has been well publicized over the last few years as being pretty ineffective with some high profile calamities in there from from a financial perspective. You know, you just think of things like Anthony at 85 million. So that amotization fee number still being very high just reminds you that there's been a lot of that kind of mismanagement they need to still get over in the past that's carrying into some of these current numbers.

[00:09:18]And there are some sort of there are some sort of sleepers in there as well, aren't they Charlie? If you look at things like signing Mason Mount from your club for 60 million and his total contribution in the three years that he's been at Man United has been very very very very low. You know, it's signings like that which even in a quiet way just drag the entire thing down.

[00:09:35]>> You got for about 50 million.

[00:09:37]>> Yeah, that was quite I mean off the top of my head there are a few and it's unfortunate for poor Anthony because he's the one that stands out at such a gross um inflation. However, four points above where they were expected to be, you could very easily have been a long way south if they hadn't have had such a good push towards the end of the season.

[00:09:54]So, it'll be interesting to see. Now, Carrick has also been confirmed as permanent manager since we last recorded how that goes out because we know that there's a history of caretaker managers taking the job full-time, especially if they've been club legends or icons, not necessarily playing out. I hope for his sake it does. I think >> you're referring particularly to Solar >> Solar Deater Chelsea thing but at Man United Solar was almost in exactly this situation you know came in for you know legend of the club came in studied the ship did an okay job got given the full-time role and wasn't really >> up to it albeit as I've said before when things aren't right behind the scenes manager is magician it's just not a thing you know so it you know if you're looking at a sort of you know end of year report card for manu you know sort it you'd come away with a sort of six, five and a half, six out of 10 if you were being really honest. It might feel to some Man United fans more like a seven or an eight because they have that got back into the Champions League might feel that way, but it's still not there.

[00:10:52]And as I said, when the pressure comes on of playing European football every week this, you know, ne next season be interesting to see what happens.

[00:10:59]>> I'll give him a seven.

[00:11:01]>> I'll give him a seven.

[00:11:02]>> I'm not going to argue with you.

[00:11:03]>> Um >> that's a shame. That's not like you. Um, however, there are a couple of clubs as we get towards the bottom. Big clubs.

[00:11:10]>> Yeah, >> Newcastle we haven't spoken about a huge amount on this show. We've given airtime to Liverpool. We've given air time to Tottenham of course. And of course, we've given air time to Chelsea who I'm actually not going to bore you all with it. I think we all know that, you know, this is a disaster from a business perspective. It won't surprise Well, it may surprise you to know Chelsea are bottom of this table. Wolves are bottom of this table on minus 27 points from where they were expected to be. Chelsea a second bottom minus 22 with one of the highest wage bills at 359 million the highest amotization at 212 million the highest agents fees as we've discussed before at 65 million 20 million south of Sunderland's total wage bill and I mean sorry can we just repeat that Chelsea's spend on player agents is not far off what Sunderland have been playing on their entire player wages okay because don't forget the total wage bill you've got there is not it doesn't it's not just players is others as well. So Chelsea are spending the same as agents same on agents as Sunderland are on players look and we know and and the highest total costs in this whole table. So >> the highest total costs in the entire table.

[00:12:16]>> I would love to go into this even some of your comments previously have been my god is there anything more we can really say. I think the point there is very clear no European football next season.

[00:12:24]>> Yeah. So I think just just summarize that situation Charlie. Um so in other words the the the view is not there is a view um of various people that Chelsea will benefit next season from not having Europa League or Europa Conference League football. It will enable them to hopefully >> do a manu >> to to build a more consistent starting lineup, although that will require a slight change of approach in general and to get more of their best players on the pitch more often in Premier League games and also very often be playing on the weekend as Manu have had this season against clubs who have been playing European football which always, as we said earlier on with Villa playing against Spurs, always just gives you just a significant advantage when the other side three or four days ago was traveling away to some part of Europe and not really in a position to prepare properly for the Premier League game. So next season, in as much as there has been any excuse to date, >> my goodness me, next season there are no excuses for Chelsea.

[00:13:15]>> No. Right.

[00:13:16]>> It feels like the pivotal season in lots of ways, doesn't it?

[00:13:18]>> Um anyway, >> having said we don't want to spend too much time on that, the one thing I did just want to spend a few minutes on because we've had a huge amount of requests for it and because it's it it seems like a pretty interesting time for them as well is Newcastle.

[00:13:31]>> Yeah, >> Newcastle 14th place in this table. 243 million in wages, 100 million in amortization, 20 million in agents fees, and C 363 million total costs, minus five points from their expected points at the start of the season.

[00:13:47]>> A team that was playing Champions League football this year, >> y >> a team that has been on the rise in lots of ways over the last, you know, four or five years.

[00:13:55]>> Yeah.

[00:13:55]>> But this season has just seemed like a step backwards.

[00:13:59]>> Yeah. that sometimes there's a rhythm to cycles that clubs go through in terms of a project that a head coach embarks upon the setup around them. That's all we had. We we said this was at Liverpool the other day, didn't we? Where the Fenway project of we've been ma Liverpool's been massively underachchieving. We want to put in place a long-term manager and a long-term data analytic structure because we want to move towards winning the Prem League and winning the Champions League. And over six, seven years, they they achieved that. And then the question is okay what what where are we now and what are we doing now? Klopp then leaves, various other people leave and say, "Okay, well, how do we reset?"

[00:14:35]And I think in in Newcastle's case, it just feels like that sort of surge of energy that came into the club when Amander and Murdad took it over from Mike Ashley and their very swift appointment of Eddie How and the normalization of the club and getting the fan base back on side supporting the team. All of that positivity and the sort of the hopes and the dreams of what Saudi ownership could potentially do to the club. All of those things came together in a sort of two, three, fouryear sort of build towards kind of like this season or so. We're in the Champions League, had a good season last season and then this season's seen a a tailing off, right? Quite quite clearly seen a tailing off. There's no doubt about that. the first time you're seeing some question marks over Eddie how's future which is not surprising when a manager has been there that long because you know only the managerial greats like Guardiola and Ferguson and Wenger are able to constantly reinvent themselves and keep on coming up with a new a new idea a new squad a new team for most even very very good managers one and one and a half cycles is about as much as they can do before things do start to tail off um so it's going to be interesting yeah it's going to be really interesting to see that I sort of look back over the last couple of years and think did they manage their PNS situation as well as might be you know when when you're looking at the progress of Elliot Anderson and you're thinking about some of the players who were left in Newcastle you know good players big foreign players who bought in on lots of money and that type of stuff and you think when you've got a generational English talent in Elliot Anderson who you could build pretty much everything around like Arsenal are building everything around Rice.

[00:16:19]>> Anderson could have been that player for Newcastle. And it almost felt like that was the easy move. You know, he probably wouldn't complain much. He'd go quietly.

[00:16:26]Another club would mop him up because he's a young English player and a lot of clubs need that in their squads for various different reasons because to be clear, the narrative has been that they can't spend again as near to the top teams as they would want to be. So, they've had to generate that money in other ways. And a homegrown player, as those of you, you know, who who knowit pure profit. So selling him means 40 million goes straight into the club. Now they then go and sign Jacob Ramsey for about the same amount of money. And >> I I just get the feeling now, rightly or wrongly, for whatever reason, there needs to just be a bit of a freshening up. A reset of some kind.

[00:17:02]>> It feels like it's got a bit stale.

[00:17:04]>> Agreed.

[00:17:04]>> They did so well to climb up to where they were, but now >> being out of the Champions League and European football alto together this year. Well, plus plus one big additional factor to that which having lived in that part of the world that will be painful. Watching Sunderland play European football will be devastating.

[00:17:25]It's very hard unless you've lived up there. It's very hard to explain the superiority complex that Newcastle has to Sunderland. It's an absolute assumption that they will be bigger and better than Sunderland. Obviously, they recognize Sunderland's a big club, a historic club, but Newcastle fans carry a let's not call it arrogance, let's call it a self-confidence that they are the big dogs of Northeast football. To see Sunderland in in, you know, in a in a really good, it's not even the Conference League, they're in the Europa League and be playing against some quite big clubs and big European nights at the Stadium of Light. When Newcastle has weeks off >> during that time, that's going to be tough. And if we're being really honest, in the competition in Europe at the moment, it's not going to be surprising if Sunderland go deep in that competition. Any European football would have been welcome, I'd imagine, at clubs like Newcastle. It's all very well saying some of the clubs are are better off without it, but that's some of the biggest ones if they're really looking in need of a proper reset. Newcastle aren't. They're just in need of continual development and competition and a trophy as we've seen from Villa, an opportunity to win the Europa League.

[00:18:24]>> Yeah.

[00:18:24]>> Is huge. A way into the Champions League as well. Anyway, >> great season. Love the fact. It's been a great season. Love the fact that lots of it was, as you said, on the line at the end. It felt like there was, you know, we've we've had such damp squibs at the end of seasons with relegated clubs, you know, being confirmed so long before the end of the season. City have been winning um, you know, pretty consistently until Liverpool last year.

[00:18:45]So now having two different winners in two, well, three different winners in three different >> I'm going to guess that the gap between the highest ranked relegated club and the side that actually won is probably smaller than it generally is. I haven't done the research on this, but I'm going to I'm going to guess that that gap was not as as big a gap as it normally would.

[00:19:01]>> 39 points to 85ish, I think.

[00:19:03]>> I mean, we've seen other other um seasons where that's been 30 points against 95 points. And so it's it all goes to show just the competitiveness of the Premier League and how deep the level is because as you say when it comes to European competition whilst there are some countries whose clubs can and do compete against the very biggest Premier League clubs in the Champions League when it comes to the Europa League and the Conference League, you're starting to see absolute domination. I mean real domination by those upper mid um Premier League clubs. Anyhow, >> Forest most likely would have won the Europa League had Villa not been in it.

[00:19:37]Yes.