Bank of America raises red flag on summer gas prices

Ajouté : 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]Bank of America warns summer gasoline prices may stay near $4 per gallon with California above $6, national average around $4.54 per gallon as of May 6th. The bank's model suggests little near-term relief, citing geopolitical tensions and reduced US refinery capacity. Brent crude forecast raised to about $77.50 for 2026 with Q2 around $80.

[00:00:28]In a more severe scenario, brand could average about $100 and spike to $130 if Middle East disruptions persist into late 2026.

[00:00:39]US refining capacity has declined.

[00:00:41]Philips 66 Los Angeles refinery closed in 2025. Lionelbasel Houston plant closed, tightening supply and amplifying price sensitivity.

[00:00:52]For households, higher pump costs translate to meaningful budget pressure.

[00:00:56]Roughly $25 more per week per car at current usage. Two car families could face $30 to $50 more per month before summer trips. Diesel and food costs could rise as well with potential Fed policy implications.

[00:01:10]Practical guidance. Enroll in fuel reward programs. Consolidate errands.

[00:01:15]Watch for state gas tax holidays.

[00:01:17]Geopolitical tensions around the straight of Hormuz remain a key risk.