XRP: The Unthinkable...

Added: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Hello, this is Matt on the Moon Lambo channel. A popular chart analyst says, "This is crazy. It's the unthinkable. Is this a moment where we have all the stars aligning, the macro conditions are exactly what have driven outrageous alt seasons, pure euphoric moments, but this time the unthinkable happens and just nothing. That's it. And we're just going to keep going down." And maybe the four-year cycler guys, the bears out there, they're right. and we're going to see the crypto market plummet and uh bottom in late Q4 of this year, 2026.

[00:00:30]And then we can start to build an accumulation base and maybe start to eek out here and see some new all-time highs what in the year 2030.

[00:00:39]I'm not so confident we're going to have to wait that long. I think that this is just a regular extremely volatile crypto and it doesn't mean that everything is now broken. It does not mean that this time is different, but I want to talk about it. uh pullbacks like this. I've just I've lived through too much of this stuff to be phased by this. Frankly, when crypto acts like crypto, that does not then mean that it's time to be scared. But before going further, I do want to be clear. I do not have a financial background of any kind. I am not offering financial advice and you definitely should not buy or sell anything because of anything I say or right. I'm just an enthusiast who enjoys making YouTube videos about cryptorelated topics, but just as a hobby and just for fun. Now, as I record this video, XRP is at $121. Bitcoin at $66,349.

[00:01:27]So, markets down a fair bit here. So, not surprisingly, everybody gets hit in the fields. Everybody's very scared. Oh, Bowie scoured out there. Look at this.

[00:01:36]Here's the crypto fear and greed index.

[00:01:38]Updates once every 24 hours. Currently at 11 out of 100, indicating the market is in extreme fear. So, uh, mark my words. At some unknown point in the future, the market will be back. back.

[00:01:50]I'm going to highlight the screen and the market will be back into extreme greed. We will get there again. The idea that we will never be back into extreme greed is silly nonsense. And when we get there, I will warn you that at unknown point in the future, we will be back as we're in extreme greed, I will warn you, we'll be back into extreme fear at some point in the future.

[00:02:10]Things things are never static here. The good news is in crypto, if we just look at the chart for the entire crypto asset class, it's just going to keep trending up and to the right despite tremendous volatility because there's real utility here. Traditional finance is here and it's coming in at scale. So over the years and decades that follow, this is going to get bigger and bigger. This is a baby asset class currently worth $2.18 trillion. That's it. So one day that's going to be 10 trillion dollars and it'll be tens of trillions of dollars.

[00:02:42]And I believe anyway without a time parameter attached it just at some point it's going to be over hundred trillion dollars.

[00:02:48]If that's the case then we're about 2% of the way there. So we're still super early and everybody's afraid. Okay. But we're in a riskone environment. I mean take a look at this from uh Charlie Blo.

[00:03:00]He's a chief market strategist at Creative Planning. He shared this data table and he said S&P 500 is up nine days in a row and nine weeks in a row.

[00:03:10]one of the strongest, most unrelenting rallies in history. Now, think about that, folks. Liquid, global liquidity is through the roof here. We're clearly in a risk-on environment. We're shifting away from riskoff. Gold is almost certainly already hit its new al it's its uh its highs at this point when a couple months or so ago, I guess it was late January, I think, it peaked closer to $5,400 per ounce. I think now it's around $4,500 per ounce. Uh that was a riskoff moment and it did have a historic run the likes of which I mean it frankly was decades in the making. It it it it truly was here. Um but look at this freaking run in the stock market.

[00:03:46]You don't think that some of this is eventually going to rotate into crypto this this risk on appetite. Humans just like they they always did it throughout history. Uh the entire crypto asset class throughout it ever since in it its inception. But but but now they're not going to do it. Yeah. I don't buy that.

[00:03:59]Here's a post from Ryan Dietrich. He's the chief market strategist at Carson Group. And this is fascinating. He wrote, "This is turning into a record no one reading this will ever see broken in their lifetime.

[00:04:14]Stocks have gained a record first seven days in a row since WASH was confirmed.

[00:04:20]The previous record was Miller with five. And I'll note that that was in the year 1978.

[00:04:28]That has been beaten.

[00:04:31]and and the win streak as noted at the bottom left here, it's still active. So, it could get even more ridiculous. I I don't know if it will. Um, do you see what's happening here?

[00:04:44]We are in a risk-on environment. To think that it's not going to rotate is silly. And I talked about this in the last video, so I don't want to rehash everything, but I think the fact that um AI is sucking a good bit of money out of the uh out of the crypto space right now is is a reason. Also, it's a lengthened cycle. very obviously. So things are going to be a little bit slower anyway.

[00:05:03]But um if that's the case, still money is going to rotate. It's not like one asset class, even if it's taking the air out of the room and you know taking the thunder from another asset class for some period of time, it doesn't mean that happens in perpetuity forever.

[00:05:16]That's not how this works. There will still be a rotation, which is why I'm just going to sit here being patient.

[00:05:22]This doesn't change my investment strategy. Whatever. I have the most simplistic, unsophisticated, unsexy investment strategy when it comes to crypto, which is I buy stuff and then I do nothing. That's it. I have no course to sell you. Unfortunately for me, I wish I could be like all the the quot, you know, the the fake gurus on the internet so I could just be like, "Here's my course and here's a it's $300." And that's what you see from these fly by night analysts here. Um, I just I don't have anything to sell you.

[00:05:52]I'm just being honest. And this is why you don't hear the message I'm delivering from too many people. It's because there's not really any money in it. But I'm running this this this channel because it's fun and I'm not here to sell you a bunch of products.

[00:06:05]And of course, I reserve the right to maybe have sponsors one day. But in terms of like shilling stuff pertaining to crypto or selling a course uh so that I have a bias and I have an incentive to craft my opinion and what's happening in the market around that, uh, no, I'm not going to do that. I have no interest in doing that.

[00:06:22]That wouldn't be fun if I look this it would no longer be fun for me to run this channel if I can't be intellectually honest because that's a huge part of the appeal is to engage in critical thinking, share thoughts and ideas with you uh other XRP community members and just kind of learn from one another. If I can no longer do that then it would no longer be fun anyway. So I'm just telling you folks the unsophisticated approach it actually really does work.

[00:06:46]Here's a post from chart analyst Crypto Patel and he shared this Monday, June 1st before the most recent drop.

[00:06:52]Although we were already kind of heading down, XRP was already at a buck 30. Um, but he's been warning like you could go a lot lower, but he's actually really bullish on the higher time frame. And so there are a handful of analysts um who have been screaming this and they very well may be right. And so I I like to share diverse perspectives on this channel. I never know for sure exactly what's going to come to pass. Of course that nobody does. Uh but I I like to have a reasonable discourse on the channel. And so here's an example of that. And just now that we are at some of these lower levels, it's like, oh, okay. Now, it doesn't mean it's going to necessarily go as low as he's saying, though, you know, you know, we'll see.

[00:07:27]But he wrote here, first accumulation zone on XRP delivered 835%.

[00:07:34]You can see what he's talking about.

[00:07:35]He's uh 2024.

[00:07:39]and he said, uh, now the two-week chart is showing a second opportunity after a 66% pullback. XRP dropped to 15week low near $126.

[00:07:50]Current accumulation $110, I'm sorry, $110 to $1.30. And he wrote, add small quantity here. That's his perspective.

[00:07:58]He says, if this support breaks, then 65 cents to 85 could be the generational entry in my opinion. So notice what he's saying.

[00:08:06]He's not promising that the price of XRP goes down to that range down to 65 cents or 85 cents, but he's saying if it does, hot damn, that would be the time to back up the truck and get greedy and start purchasing. And that is the type of mentality that I see from people who are the most successful investing in crypto.

[00:08:25]They buy the fear when it's when it feels uncomfortable to make the purchases and then they wait for really long periods of time. It turns out most people are terrible at that. It's it sounds very simple what I just said. You can say it in a sentence, but in in terms of actual execution, no, people in practice are just terrible at this. So, if you're one of the people that can pull it off, well, data shows that you're more likely to have a better outcome then. Anyway, then he says long-term targets though, and this is what matters for XRP, $5, $10, and also $15. He says the last time XRP sat in an accumulation zone like this, 835% followed. Accumulate smart. Don't call go all in at one level. Scale in. Okay, that last bit to me is is sage wisdom as far as I'm concerned. It's just the old dollar cost average approach. Get exposure to an asset. If you want to hold the asset, you get exposure to it at at various prices. Some are higher than you'd like, some are um lower than you thought you'd get. And um then just kind of comes out in the wash. Just kind of averages out to whatever. And then you just go on with life and that's it.

[00:09:30]So the general approach makes sense.

[00:09:32]dollar cost averaging is totally legit here and you just don't worry about the various levels because it is going to be all over the place especially in crypto with as volatile as it is. And I know this firsthand because I started well I first purchased XRP late 2017 uh but then after the peak the bubble burst around $3.30 early January 2018 and then I I got exposure at XRP at all sorts of different prices. I started buying at 55 cents and then it went down. I bought at 50 cents and 45 cents 30 cents, you know, so on and so forth. The lowest I ever was able to purchase it was 15 cents. So think about that range from 15 cents to 55 cents. I was buying in there and for me it ended up averaging out to about 25 cents. That's my average buy price for XRP. But you know, you just you just get exposure and you don't worry about it. And for me, I will tell you the first few years that I was an XRP holder, uh I was down on my investment or maybe close to break even for most of the first few years. Most I do think like most of the time I really actually was down and I just didn't worry about it because I understood like I was in a range and then eventually the range would break and then we'd be at a higher plateau if I was right on my investment thesis. And so here we are and obviously I mean to me it seems very clear I was right about that utility matters and we'll win the day. That's why XRP is still in the top 10 coins by market cap. It's not a fluke. Um I mean that's just that's it. That's the game.

[00:10:47]That's that's in a nutshell like how this works. There's more to say about it but if you just want to get like the bare bones like how does this whole thing work? That's it. I wish I had a course that I could sell. I'd be a richer man.

[00:10:59]Um, here's a post from Chart Nerd and he wrote, "Uh, we have been monitoring this XRP structure since late April. Price lost support before the apex, the 27th of May, and has now confirmed the structural break to the downside. $120 remain support. Lose it. The $111 low awaits a retest." So that would be uh the February low that we that he's talking about there. Could happen. I don't know. Either way, I'm just telling you it's not the end of the world. And and he's been warning this type of thing could happen for some time. I've been highlighting it consistently on my channel. And uh he'll tell you though, even if that happens, he still firmly believes you're going to see double digit prices for XRP. He thinks that it's going to peak likely closer to $27.

[00:11:44]He's been saying that consistently.

[00:11:46]Here's a post from chart analyst Great Crypto. So far, June delivered -12%.

[00:11:52]And he wrote, "XRP historical June performance, June 2014 down 17%, June 2018 down 39%, June 2022 down 32%, June 2026 so far down 12%."

[00:12:06]Says XRP plus June plus midterm years equals historically bearish structure.

[00:12:11]Yeah. Well, um, and it's fair enough to point that out. That is true. Now, I personally don't believe that we're in a four-year cycle thing. So, um I don't believe that just because 2022 is down that 2026 has to be a down year on the whole. Um I because and the reason I say that is because I believe that this time is not different. It's the same macro factors as ever that um that that drive the markets that are still driving the market. And actually, we should talk a little bit about some of those. So, I'm going to in a second, but first I wanted to highlight this. This is from onchain analytics firmament. And this is posted Monday, June 1st, late until the evening, my time anyway, 11:30 p.m.

[00:12:49]Central time. They wrote, "As Bitcoin dipped as low as $70,000, our onchain data indicates the network saw the most transactions valued at $100,000 or more since April 22nd. This is historically a strong sign of whale accumulation." So, think about that. The market hadn't bottomed and this is the smart money and they were purchasing a boatload of of Bitcoin. That's what they were doing.

[00:13:12]And even though they're the smart money, that doesn't mean that they know literally where the bottom will be. Of course, nobody does. But they saw Bitcoin down to 70,000. And even though as of the time of recording this, it got closer to $65,000. They saw it as a good buy. And that's why you're seeing the type of volume that you were seeing or that's why you're seeing these transactions.

[00:13:31]There's a lesson in that.

[00:13:34]When it gets scary out there, that's when the smart money accumulates that it just it's very uncomfortable. I understand that. But there's a lesson in that. when it feels uncomfortable to buy. Like that's probably a good time to buy just it just as a general concept.

[00:13:48]Here's a post from chart analyst psychedelic and he wrote this is crazy.

[00:13:55]So he's got copper gold up top and that's important because uh it's clearly breaking out right now. These are two weak candles. Look at this. Clearly copper is breaking out against gold.

[00:14:06]That's important because copper increases in value uh when you see when you're in economic expansion, it's used in more manufacturing. So that drives the demand. So it increases in value against the dollar. And here it is also against gold. Uh then the middle or well the second line here that's that's Bitcoin. And the third line here, although he didn't label it, that has to be MACD for Bitcoin. So that's the momentum indicator. So green bars uh tell you we're heading the way that we'd prefer. Red bars heading the way we not prefer because we don't want the price to go down. And then the fourth line here, uh, he didn't label that either, but that's definitely PMI. Oh, I I know that chart. I've seen it too many times here. And so, anything above that dash line right at 50 would be economic expansion. That's what that indicates.

[00:14:46]Anything below the dash line would be economic contraction. So, you can see for several years, we've actually been in economic contraction. We only just now started to break out over the last 5 months.

[00:14:58]And and when that happens, that's when you see copper rise precipitously against gold. That's also when you see Bitcoin break out. And that's also when you ultimately after that see alt season every single time without fail. And it's kind of hard to see it on the Bitcoin chart here because he used a linear chart rather than a logarithmic chart, but it is still true. I know. Like it's just like you're so zoomed out you can't even see. This would have been mountainous back in the day. Now looks like there's no volatility for Bitcoin because it's a linear chart for like years and years. Obviously, we know that's not true. Um, but anyway, so we wrote, "This is crazy. The copper/ gold ratio just flipped bullish on the twoe super trend. This is an extremely high beta macro signal. We can see here that everything on this chart is a key macro signal and everything always aligns. the two-week super trend flip, the MACD bullish cross. Uh bullish, I'm sorry, rather business cycle hit 54. He's calling it business cycle. Uh it's technically it's the PMI. It's just he's using that term because people in crypto do that. Uh this is the PMI. That's what he's referencing. It hit 54. That is true economic expansion. No question about it. This is a real trend. And and that's a really big deal because there's never been a moment in history where you get that breakout and then you don't get an alt season. That's never happened.

[00:16:14]So, I don't think this time is different. And he says, "But as I've been saying a lot today, Bitcoin is yet to respond, and we are waiting for that final piece.

[00:16:24]These combined conditions are very uncommon, and they have only ever happened at the start of every single bull cycle in Bitcoin's life." And folks, that's the exciting part. Anytime, He's right. This is what I keep saying, too. Anytime you've seen the stars align like this, all these metrics, you have gotten the crazy euphoria. It doesn't mean it happens immediately, but it does mean it happens. So, we're closer than ever to the next serious bull run here.

[00:16:53]And then he says that is literally the only time these occur together, and they have happened every single time. How long will Bitcoin resist these forces?

[00:17:04]Will this be the first time it doesn't respond? I think that is highly unlikely.

[00:17:11]Um, but who knows how long it could hold off. Yeah. And that then that's fair enough point. But like that to me that would be the unthinkable. The unthinkable would be the stars align here and for the first time in history uh crypto no longer acts like it's a macro asset class, like it doesn't respond to macro factors because reasons. Yeah, I don't buy that, folks.

[00:17:32]I I just I do not buy that. To me, it just seems super obvious the best is yet ahead. In fact, there is this post from Cantonese Cat. He's noticing the same thing. This is a copper/go chart, the same uh that Psychedelic was showing.

[00:17:44]And it's clear, again, it's clearly breaking out here. Um these are one month candles on his chart, though. He says, "At the risk of sounding like a complete the copper/go ratio doesn't want to stop. Everything else is a fake out or noise and things will find support and go up." And there you go.

[00:18:01]Isn't that in line with what I always say? Markets find bottoms. That's the way I always word it. And here he's saying things will find support and go up. Correct? They eventually find support and they go up from some level.

[00:18:15]They can fall through various support levels, but eventually again markets find bottoms and then they go. This very much looks like that moment. This is why I keep saying the best is yet ahead. I'm not a financial adviser. You should not buy or sell anything because of anything I say or write. That would be a very very very bad idea. Until next time, to the moon Lambo.