Iran Says "Ignore Trump" as S&P Hits Record Highs—Watch Tomorrow

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]S&P futures surged their highest level on record as the US Iran peace deal is still very much a work in progress.

[00:00:08]Trump says the stock market can do much better while Iran says the US told them to ignore Trump's public statements as it's only for domestic media purposes.

[00:00:18]US gas prices are now expected to drop back down to $2.80 this year. Two sources close to Trump's negotiation team say Trump may be backing away from the US Iran deal under extreme internal pressure from Israel and its US domestic allies. Today we cover why stocks are rising, what to know, and where the action is right now.

[00:00:45]S&P 500 futures were ripping on Sunday night and they still are today and it all comes down to Iran. So here's where things stand right now. According to US officials and reporting from the New York Times and Axios, the US and Iran have agreed in principle to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, extend the ceasefire by 60 days, ease the US blockade on Iranian ports, and begin a phased unfreezing of Iranian assets. The framework also includes Iran committing to discuss the diluting or handing over of its highly enriched uranium and the US is issuing some sanction waivers on Iranian oil. That's the American version of events. On the Iranian side, the foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in quotes, "A consensus was reached on many topics discussed but no one can claim the signing of an agreement as imminent."

[00:01:36]And Trump told his representatives not to rush into a deal with Iran he announced Sunday on Truth Social saying both sides must take their time and get it right. He also said the US naval blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. So it really seems like both sides are pretty far apart still.

[00:01:57]Yeah, and Iran says the US told them to ignore President Trump's public statements as it's only for domestic media purposes. This story originates exclusively from Iran's Fars News Agency, which reported it citing anonymous sources close to the Iranian negotiating team. So, no official US sources confirmed or acknowledged this specific claim, but Trump did post an image of a bomb on a fighter jet on Twitter social with the signature, "Thank you for your attention to this matter." Catchphrase stenciled directly into the bomb. Uh two sources close to Trump's negotiating team say Trump may be backing away from the US-Iran deal under extreme internal pressure from Israel and its US domestic allies urging him not to accept Iran's terms, but this also relies on anonymous sourcing, which uh you know, of course can be influenced by people looking to influence the narrative um publicly or even with Trump.

[00:02:57]And at the same time, Iran said it's actually ready to remove highly enriched uranium from its territory, but it's requiring that it be actually transferred to China.

[00:03:06]Um and all of this ended up making Brent crude oil fall by 5% as the US is negotiating this deal to reopen the strait and eventually end the war. Now, this is also helping US oil prices, which fell down to $92 per barrel, now down over 5%, and as we look at gas prices, uh they're actually forecasted to drop down to $2.80 within 2026. That is a 37% drop from the national average of $4.50 a gallon right now, and I would bet consumers would be jumping up and down for joy if we get back to $2.80.

[00:03:44]Um but then there's also this CPI data point that I think is really worth keeping on the radar right now. The last three major market crashes all coincided with CPI crossing above 3.8%. The dot-com bubble saw a 49% drawdown after this. The global financial crisis saw a 57% drop, and the 2022 rate hike sell-off was down 25%. This is awfully concerning. And right now, CPI is approaching that level again while the S&P 500 is sitting right near all-time highs. So, that doesn't mean that it has to turn over like it did last time, but it is a historical pattern that you might want to be aware of. And if we do start seeing CPI break through, that's when I really think you might want to start tightening up risk management.

[00:04:32]SPXS is a 3x leveraged inverse ETF to the market. So, if there ever is a big concern or sell-off, look at this ETF.

[00:04:42]In 2022, it popped up by nearly 100%.

[00:04:46]This can be great during times of panic, but it also falls a lot when the market is just ripping like it is now. As we're starting to see CPI rise and inflation take hold, it's obviously hurting consumers and consumer sentiment actually just dropped to its lowest level on record in data going back to 1952.

[00:05:04]It's down another 10% just in the last month alone, and it's now down 21% since February of 2026, right whenever the Iran war started. Consumers are now expecting inflation to rise to 4.8% over the next 12 months. So, that's a pretty significant data point. And speaking about inflation, we are going to be getting the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which is PCE data, releasing 1 hour before open on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. So, be ready as this data can influence the market in a huge way, and there will also be GDP data thrown into the mix there as well.

[00:05:39]But also, as we go through and we look at the overall market right now, the spy itself is essentially at all-time highs.

[00:05:47]And with futures ripping up to all time highs, we're set we're essentially set to see the spy gap up to 752.50, at least based off of where futures were at the time of this recording. The previous all time high was at 749.53.

[00:06:02]So, if we do break out past the 749 50 to 750 area, we're going to need to use that as support then. That will be a huge support if the spy does attempt to fill the gap back to the downside. But now at the same time, if we do just see the spy continue to rip and it breaks out in a significant way, watch each $5 level to the upside. 755 and then 760 will be the main areas of resistance that I watch for. Of course, be adaptable as resistances will start to establish intraday and you're going to have to identify those and adapt accordingly.

[00:06:37]And Tom, it's worth keeping in mind the stock market is still on a truly historic win streak in multiple different ways. It is on an 8-week win streak and it just barely missed being the best 8-week rally since 1950. We can see the 8-week win streak return came in at 17.3%.

[00:06:58]The next best reading was a 17.4% return that happened in 1997. So, it was almost the best 8-week rally ever. But either way, during past rallies like this, of course, there's a lot of strength in the short term, but historically speaking, the bullish momentum has continued throughout the rest of the year and even over the next like 12 weeks and 26 weeks. Yeah, as we get to that 52-week column, the markets went green 100% of the time. But what I think is especially awesome is the average percent return being 16.9% and actually in three of those six readings, we saw the spy pop up over 20% that year. So, it would be nice to see a 20% rise on spy over the next 52 weeks from this point. But as we go through the rest of the week, there are going to be some earnings that come out. Although I will say this, they're not as huge as the past few weeks and earning season is dying down a bit. I think in my opinion Costco's going to be the biggest stock to watch on Thursday just for the state of consumers. Other than that, we will get some chip stocks like MRVL and even CRM reporting on Wednesday. And I think some of those software stocks will be interesting. Like ticker symbol CRM, you could say Snowflake as well, maybe Zscaler.

[00:08:16]Software stocks have been beaten down quite a bit. So it will be nice to see how these companies react as well. But Tom, let's jump right into the good stuff, which are some setups and predictions. A stock that is close on my radar is NASA to the upside. This is a rapidly growing actively managed fund that focuses on the commercial space economy. It's the largest space ETF on the market. It's ripping up right now.

[00:08:41]And of course, there's a lot of hype building around this upcoming SpaceX IPO.

[00:08:46]This ETF has some exposure to SpaceX as we can see on the holdings right here, but it also has exposure to a lot of other space stocks. So as hype builds around this, I think it's a ticker certainly worth keeping close on watch.

[00:09:00]It's doing pretty well so far and the momentum's great. So it's definitely on the radar. Yeah, NASA's been ripping. I will keep watching it. The space industry continues to blow up in the short term. It's been one of the hottest sectors in 2026. And with my first play, I'm going to talk about a stock that probably isn't the hottest and that's going to be Ford.

[00:09:19]As we look at Ford though, their stock did start to pop up over the past few weeks and on Friday they had a 9.2% move and tested their recent high closer to $15. And what I'm looking for over the next few days is an eventual break of that $15 resistance. This was already tested back on May 14th, and it's going to be a huge level to break through.

[00:09:40]But, the reason why they're moving up so much is essentially surrounding their Ford energy subsidiary, which aims to supply high-margin battery storage systems to power-hungry AI data centers and utilities. This is a pretty strategic pivot into AI into the AI energy infrastructure game from a legacy automaker like Ford, and I think it's actually really smart of Ford to attempt to do this, right? Um as we look at Ford, obviously they're a car maker, but they can use their factories and production to get into so many other things. And looking at their stock, shareholders obviously love this. So, if the hype continues uh early into this week, watch for a breakout past 15. As we've seen, Ford has definitely had some pretty good movement from this, and this is a stock that normally moves pretty slowly with the average percent rise being only the options tend to pop off a lot more than like, let's say a very volatile stock. Yeah, when Ford's up 9% in a day, it's definitely something worth paying attention to. And like you said, um it's the AI news that's really getting it to move. Ford, in my opinion, really hasn't done anything for like 30 years, but when it has some nice AI news, that uh that can certainly change things. Uh another stock that's close on the radar is, of course, XLE. You know, this weekend's news uh does pose a risk to that thesis, um but more in a shorter-term sense, I'm looking at Etsy, ticker symbol ETSY, to the upside. There was a recent $870,000 big money trade with this one, and it's with um some pretty deep in the money call options at the 50 strike with a relatively short a relatively soon expiration date for July 17th. Uh basically, the big money trade is already up 50%. The stock has some good momentum over the past few days, and because these options are deep in the money and have a relatively short expiration date, it shows that the trader here is expecting a move pretty soon. It's definitely close on the radar and it is more of like a shorter to medium-term setup. Wow, the big money really sniped the trade here with Etsy.

[00:11:45]Literally May 13th was the bottom candle on the sell-off and it's done nothing but rip up since then. I'll be watching it very closely, Mike, especially as we get towards the end of this play. Um but with my next play, I'm looking at UMAC or Unusual Machines. Back to the upside.

[00:12:01]Now, I've noticed Unusual Machines has actually pulled back quite a bit recently. From the peak to its recent low, it actually dropped 54%, which is pretty mind-blowing, but as you zoom out, you can still see it's it's significantly higher over the past few years. But whenever I look at it in the in the immediate short term, it's testing a big resistance right around $17.17 to 17.20. And I'm actually looking for a breakout past that double top here into this week. Now, I do think that it could end up gapping up early on this morning.

[00:12:30]And if it does gap up above there, of course, we're going to have to be a little careful and gauge the opening momentum. But if that momentum does continue, keep watching it up. Keep in mind, Donald Trump Jr. is the third largest shareholder of this company and it's a drone stock. As we know, drones have been kind of transforming over the past few years, especially in the war and defense landscape. So, continue watching this one. I think it could be interesting over the next few years, but especially in the short term as this momentum potentially continues.

[00:13:00]Sounds great. We'll keep it close on watch and let's jump right into today's momentum plays. With the first one we have Intuitive Machines, ticker symbol LUNR, to the upside. Yeah, if LUNR can actually break above recent resistance right around 38.50, watch it to the upside. With the next one we have Redwire Corp, ticker symbol RDW, also to the upside. RDW has been mind-blowing to me. If it breaks out above $18 this week, also watch them to the upside. And then we have Affirm, ticker symbol AFRM, to the downside. Yeah, Affirm had a pretty bad move on Friday, and if it breaks under the $64 support, continue watching it down. All right. So, let's keep these three stocks on the radar.

[00:13:42]They are volatile. If they break past the levels listed, they can open up potential continuation-style opportunities, but always protect yourself above all else. Use stop losses, only enter trades that you know why you're entering and you feel good about, and focus on making smart, disciplined trading decisions above all else. If you need help with that or just want to learn more, check out all the free information in the Stock Up Discord group. The link for that is in the description down below. Let's also jump right into today's insane, big-money trade. Today, we are looking at ticker symbol TTWO.

[00:14:19]The trader here bought the 270 strike call options that expire on September 18th of 2026. They put $12.6 million into this trade, and for our more advanced traders, this is technically a call debit spread, where they also shorted the 310 strike call options.

[00:14:38]They are risking $12.65 million to make $87.35 million.

[00:14:46]TTWO is Take-Two Interactive Software.

[00:14:50]They're a leading game publisher, creating games through its labels like Rockstar Games, 2K, Private Division, and others.

[00:14:58]They own the popular Grand Theft Auto franchise that is scheduled to release on November 19th of 2026. The trader here is, you know, highly bullish on this stock, and they have a lot to make if it does move up. But, it's worth keeping in mind that they bought the 270 strike call options, so they are uh themselves for a large move, and they also have an expiration that is before uh GTA 6 actually launches. So, this trade is essentially trying to take advantage of like the pre-launch hype cycle. Uh very interesting setup. I love the highly asymmetric risk-reward, but it's also one of those trades where at this stock needs a big move in order for this trade to be profitable. So, super interesting.

[00:15:50]Yeah, this trade is insane, and I don't know what's going to happen with GTA 6.

[00:15:54]It keeps getting delayed, and that is one of the biggest risks I think to this trade. At the end of the day, you never know what kind of news might come out before the actual release date. But, I think it's interesting that they're trying to play this run-up. Since GTA 5 released uh this stock's actually up 1,100% up to this point, but in the 6 months before GTA 5 released, the stock only rose up 10%. Now, of course, there's a lot of differences between what happened when GTA 5 released and whenever GTA 6 is releasing now. Uh you could argue that right now GTA 6 has a lot more hype, and it's been delayed for so long that, you know, it has that huge anticipation factor to it. Either way, this company uh can move up in a pretty big way into this hype. Something that I would look for here is like a buy the rumor situation. So, as we start to see investors get excited for the release, we could see it rise up like throughout this summer, of course, into September.

[00:16:50]I find this play also interesting because of how they're entering off of a big red candle like we saw Friday. This stock just had a big drop down 4.42%, and it seems like they're trying to snipe up one of these dips on this overall uptrend. Either way, very interesting. I do think it's risky, but at the end of the day, there is a real catalyst affecting this stock. Yep, and the risk-reward is highly asymmetric as well. So, So, keep it close on the radar, but let's also give a giant shout out to today's member of the day, March Flyer in the Stocked Up Discord with some beautiful profits on Friday. As you can see right here, we had some nice gains of just under $500 and 53%. So, huge shout out to you. Keep up the great work going forward. And if you guys are into short-term trading, check out that first link in the description and comments down below to get access to the Stocked Up Trading Floor at the best price possible. Coupon code autotrends will take $150 off the yearly plan. This is the lowest price you could possibly get, and it is the place to be if you're into short-term trading. You get full access to our surge alerts every single day, weekly live events. You can chat with Tom and myself all day long. You can access the big money trades. You can use commands to see which big money trades are doing the best. You can see which traders are still in which big money trades. You can look at all of our past replays and educational live events, all of the future releases that we have set for this year. Definitely check it out. It's a great time to get in. Coupon code autotrends will get you the lowest price possible. I think we're set for a very exciting week. The stock market is flying, so there should be a lot of great opportunity. Thank you guys so much for watching, and let's crush it in the market tomorrow.