CLARITY Crash Incoming?📉Mark Yusko INTERVIEW

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Let's dive into the retail market trap.

[00:00:02]Is there a trap brewing here? Guys, we're going to break it down for you.

[00:00:05]I've got a really good guest, of course, which is going to lead us into where the market trends are heading. Before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor, and that is BTCC, where you guys can go out there and do some trading. Whether you're doing copy trading, all sorts of different abilities over there, and you get a 10% bonus on your first-time deposit. Check out btcc.com, use our link down below. Lots of other goodies uh that they have for you. I want to bring in Mark Yusco from Morgan Creek Capitol. He's been on our show before, but nice to see you again, Mark.

[00:00:35]How are you?

[00:00:36]>> Great to see you. Doing well. Happy spring.

[00:00:38]>> Yeah, finally. I can tell cuz my uh sinuses get going in the springtime.

[00:00:43]Magnolia trees in Florida are beautiful things, but uh not beautiful to the sinuses in some cases.

[00:00:49]>> Hey, Mark.

[00:00:51]>> Yeah, exactly. Listen, we're we're looking at a couple of issues right now with the Clarity Act. Uh big banks some people say are quietly killing uh this by simply stalling the market uh the markups into May if that occurs because we've had several out there including uh Chairman Scott talking about the issues of not getting the markup fast enough.

[00:01:13]What's your opinion right now on clarity? Do you think we are at the risk stage of not getting it at all?

[00:01:21]>> Sure. But but I I I mean definitely there's a risk, Paul. I I just don't think that's going to happen, unfortunately. I think Clarity in its current form is a horrible bill, right?

[00:01:33]It's it's been written by the usual suspects, the incumbents who are backed by, you know, big money in in uh the incumbents, big banks, and you know, they they've said it out loud, like they've said the quiet part out loud, right? you had, you know, Moyahan at Bank of America say, "Well, you know, we'd we'd lose trillions of dollars of deposits." Yeah. Yes, you would because if you don't pay people for their capital and they can get paid somewhere else, they will move. And you know, it's it's just interesting. I think the genius act and clarity together I believe were written in such a way to try to forstall the inevitable which is the transition to a better form of of money and and and where we can be our own bank. Yeah, >> but um you know, but I do think that uh there's enough people on the other side pushing for real regulatory change and regulatory clarity that, you know, we're at that that funny divide that ends up with no action, which you know, maybe that's good for us long term.

[00:02:48]>> Okay. So, Okay. So, you're would you give it, you know, an over 50% chance right now of getting through?

[00:02:57]>> I I think most legislation eventually passes. It's just the timing that's hard. So, I I think it will definitely pass in some form. So, greater than 50% chance, >> but but I think the current form >> is is bad enough that enough people are still fighting it. Now, if you can nudge Brian Armstrong, which it appears they have, into their camp, you know, he went from public enemy number one in the Wall Street Journal to like lobbying a little bit for for clarity. You know, I still don't understand how Senator Lumis completely flipped from, you know, an open bill supporting Trump strategic Bitcoin reserve to now regulatory capture in the form of of clarity.

[00:03:45]So, in your opinion, it's a bad bill.

[00:03:48]You if you had your, you know, your wishes, you would let this die.

[00:03:52]>> You know, again, today is today is the uh the birthday of of the Roman Empire, so I do this, right?

[00:03:59]>> Okay. All right. Yeah. Uh All right.

[00:04:02]Well, there you go. Um well, let's move on to a little bit around what's happening in the war because obviously we we are dealing with issues right now that you it's interesting too because everything that happens in Iran and the strait seems to have a direct impact on what's happening in crypto. Where do you think do you think Trump and this play has been bad for crypto in general or do you think this is just global macro doing global macro stuff?

[00:04:29]>> Again, such a great a great point, Paul.

[00:04:32]Look, crypto, Bitcoin, crypto broadly, it is just a giant macro trade, right?

[00:04:39]What it is is, >> you know, crypto per se, stable coins and and cryptocurrency are better rails for doing finance of the future. So, the financial services market will eventually all be on crypto.

[00:04:56]Now, some say it'll all be on Bitcoin, some say it'll all be on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few others. At the end of the day, we'll find that out. But ultimately, everything, right? Every stock, every bond, every currency, every commodity, every everything is going to be digitized. You know, we backed a company figure that is helping uh put, you know, real world assets on chain uh for the first time and and basically competing against DTCC.

[00:05:22]>> So, I I do think this is all going to happen. I just think, look, the president said whatever it took to get elected. That's what politicians do, right? And so he made a bunch of promises.

[00:05:40]You know, I'm a big Maverick fan. Son, your your ego is writing checks. Your body can't cash, right? Top Gun. So he he can't do the things that he promised unilaterally, you know? So he needed Congress. Well, Congress, most of them are funded by the people that crypto is trying to displace, >> right?

[00:06:00]>> Miss Warren, for example. So, it he I'm not saying he's good, bad, or indifferent other than he's been ineffective at pushing the legislation he promised because well, one, presidents don't make legislation. They they sign it after Congress does. and two, he's his team is good at certain things, but they're certainly what it appears uh so far we've seen, not really good at at affecting much change of any time. And then this this gambit in the Middle East, >> you know, we go we could spend all afternoon talking about it. I I think complete disaster on on every front. We got 800 ships stranded in the straits still despite it, you know, being the blockade and then the blockade of the blockade and then we're open but then we're not open then and at the end of the day you can't I don't believe right and history would be on my side. You can't win conflicts halfway around the world.

[00:07:04]We've tried dozens of times pretty much lost them all. And you know, if it escalates to a world war, you know, we're undefeated there. But, um, I I think the skirmishes tend to be just long funding acts for for military spending, and that's not really good for everything else.

[00:07:27]>> Sure.

[00:07:27]>> Except for money supply. Global money supply, Paul, is is on an extreme ramp, >> which is partly why since the shooting started, the best performing asset has been Bitcoin.

[00:07:40]>> Yeah.

[00:07:40]>> And it's not close, right? Gold is actually down since the shooting started, and stocks are basically flat, bonds are basically flat, Bitcoin's up.

[00:07:50]So, it's interesting.

[00:07:52]>> So, you look at the S&P 500 hitting all-time high now again. Uh here we go into the end of the year. I want to play a clip for you. This is Tom Lee talking about what could fuel this next phase.

[00:08:05]Take a look.

[00:08:07]>> So I think investors viewed the war and the start of the war as a time to take risk off the table which was very different than what we saw a year ago when investors were buying into the tariff flows. And now I think that the downside tail risks have been removed for the war. uh hedge funds have been early and have they've been adding risk and that we can confirm that from talking to our clients and I think now it's retail investors that are now beginning to take money off the sidelines and buy stocks.

[00:08:35]>> Not just tariffs but anything else politically that's happened. I mean buy the dips has become a well-known catchphrase. So it's surprising that they were you think kind of going the other way this time?

[00:08:45]>> It is surprising. I was quite surprised because I would have assumed if someone asked me in 2026 a war is going to start, what will retail do? I would assume that they'd buy the dip. I think the state of the consumer is one thing versus maybe how they might hear in a radio commercial or the surveys, but I do think the consumer is in better shape. So, I think the retail investor will end up chasing this.

[00:09:07]>> Wow. So, retail chasing this. You look at the fear and greed index. I don't know. Mark, do you buy this right now? I I don't even buy it a I mean I I don't actually don't agree with anything and I like Tom, but I I don't agree with anything you just said. The data actually doesn't support it. Um you know, and and there's this this confluence of or I'm not not confluence, there's a conflation of terms. Everyone talks about retail money, but they don't take out essentially the institutionalized retail, which is every two weeks people's 401ks and 403bs, right, >> go into the market. That's not retail speculation. That is your pension fund that went from defined benefit to defined contribution back in 1986. So that money just goes in and it's dumb, meaning it's rules-based. It's passive.

[00:10:05]It doesn't get to think. It has to buy whatever has the highest market cap. And so that just continues to buy. The other thing that doesn't jive with with what he's saying is, you know, retail going to the sidelines. Options activity and single day options are the highest they've ever been. And so, yes, there's speculation. My view is >> the speculation is small. It's kind of like when people talk about Robin Hood versus Schwab or Vanguard or Fidelity. Yeah, it's growing really fast, but the average account is $4,000.

[00:10:42]>> It doesn't really matter. Now, it can matter for a single stock like what's happening with Avis Budget. You can engineer a short squeeze like what happened with GameStop, but for the overall market, it's just not enough money compared to what >> the boomers, right, my brethren and sister out there that own all the assets. Look at the difference between the top 10% and the bottom 50% in terms of ownership of assets.

[00:11:07]>> Huge difference.

[00:11:07]>> All at the top. And those people, what are they buying?

[00:11:11]>> They're buying bonds. They're not buying green bananas and they're buying bonds.

[00:11:15]And that's a very different dynamic and it's partly why we see more deflationary forces than than inflationary forces. We see devaluation forces and we see oil price increases. And that's the last one where I I don't agree with with the consumer being in good shape. The consumer was expecting the largest tax refunds I think in history. That's just large law of large numbers. But most of it is going to be totally erased by the fact that gasoline prices almost doubled.

[00:11:45]>> Yeah, >> that was the worst decision I think in terms of of the incumbents wanting to win midterm elections. If gasoline prices are still over $4 by fall, they're going to get slaughtered.

[00:11:59]>> I mean, it's not coming close.

[00:12:01]>> Yeah, I think this is the issue. We are at the line I think the the line in the sand right now from a macro standpoint and I am to your point I just don't buy this market recovery right now. I'm still super skeptical. I'm I'm very cautious right now in terms of what plays are out there. And uh you look at this and then you kind of consider what's happening with the Fed. You've got Walsh getting ready to jump in the nominee. uh he's gonna potentially right now keep monetary policy somewhat independent and he claims that he is >> but do you what do you think right now I mean the >> poly not independent I mean worsh is is like part of the family I mean it it's it's an engineered system so now they'll have treasury secretary and uh um head of the fed both in the club steering in a certain direction and look ultimately this is the only way out, right? What what this group of people is trying to engineer is something that mathematically shouldn't occur. A market can't really be worth much more than the GDP that produces the market. In fact, it should be worth about 70 cents on the dollar because remember it costs money to make money, >> right?

[00:13:25]>> Right. When we run a factory, we we have to spend for electricity. That that that's the the crazy thing about Open AI. They take in a dollar of revenue and they spend $3.58.

[00:13:36]You can't make that up on volume.

[00:13:37]>> I can't say believe I'm saying this. I'm thinking you might actually be agreeing with Senator Warren on this. So, I want to play a clip of Senator >> First time for everything.

[00:13:48]>> Let's play it.

[00:13:49]>> Trump has made clear that he does not want an independent Fed. In fact, he has said, and I quote, "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be Fed chairman." And he's made clear that you are his sock puppet, saying last week that interest rates will drop, quote, "when Kevin gets in." Yeah, I think they do. Not when economic conditions change, we'll get lower rates. Not when the economy needs it. Nope. He said, "When my guy Kevin Walsh is in there, we'll get the interest rates that I, Donald Trump, wants." So independence takes courage. Let's check out your independence and your courage. We'll start easy. Mr. Wars, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?

[00:14:33]>> Um uh we try to keep politics, if I'm confirmed, out of the federal >> I'm just asking a factual question. I need to know. I need to measure your independence and your courage.

[00:14:44]>> Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago.

[00:14:48]>> That's not the question I'm asking. I'm asking, did Donald Trump lose in 2020?

[00:14:52]Man, I'm suggesting you in 2020 the Fed.

[00:14:56]>> Wow, man. I you know, as much as I dislike Warren, she knows how to cut to the bone on these questions and Worsh was unable to answer that for her implication is that there's a reason for that. Do you agree with that? Do you think he is a sock puppet?

[00:15:17]>> Um, so yeah, but not of Trump. Okay. So, I do believe >> tell me more.

[00:15:24]>> Look, I I I don't think Trump or or any president that we've had for the last I don't know 100 plus years is is in charge, right? There's a different group of people that that make the decisions and and get the people appointed that they want appointed and get the people elected that they want elected. That's how our system works, right? The people with the money pull the strings. Uh, so I don't I don't think the Donald is is the puppet master. I think he is a puppet himself.

[00:15:58]Trump didn't pick Kevin Worsh. Someone else said, "This is the person you're going to put in."

[00:16:04]>> Same thing with Jerome Powell. I mean, >> I'm not saying Donald Trump isn't um the person that that could make that type of decision. But he's not an economist. He doesn't hobnob with people in the economic industry or the financial services industry. He's a real estate guy. And so his ability to say, "Oh yeah, that's the most qualified person for this job." It's not how it works, right? You >> get some people to help you identify.

[00:16:35]>> I would argue that there's another group of people behind those people that, you know, sets these things in motion. And that's interesting.

[00:16:42]>> If you look at different cabinets, they look the way they do. So you're in agreement no rate cuts with war or or with poly market I see right now at least no rate cuts this year.

[00:16:53]>> I think what we know about wars is he actually is pretty wellqualified like maybe the most well-qualified person we've had in a long time. I mean, whether he is beholden to a whole bunch of people who got him to where he is, I you know, we'll find out.

[00:17:15]>> Yeah, we're going to find out this summer, uh, for sure of how this plays out for a Fed rate cut, especially if if Tom Lee is even incrementally right on a market that continues to move. Uh, but if we do see a market pullback, then, you know, it all starts to get into one thing I think is going to be clarity. I want to go to our lightning round with you and uh short answers. Clarity breaks the four-year cycle for Ethereum. Do you think that if if clarity goes through it breaks the the four-year cycle for Ethereum this year?

[00:17:48]>> No, I I I think the four-year cycle exists because of Bitcoin code and therefore an Ethereum follows Bitcoin and just it's a liquidity, you know, waterfall. So, I don't no I don't think so. I think it's good for Ethereum, don't get me wrong, but I don't think it breaks the cycle. Humans are going to human.

[00:18:07]>> Let's go for it. If clarity doesn't pass, we crash to a new yearly low on crypto in general.

[00:18:15]>> No, I'll actually go the other way. If if >> if clarity does pass, uh we probably we probably extend the bare market longer.

[00:18:24]I think if clarity passes, maybe instead of being September, October to get the the ultimate kind of break into crypto spring out of winter, maybe that that advances.

[00:18:36]>> All right. So, I'm going to say if it doesn't pass, >> if clarity does if clarity doesn't pass, we crash to No, I don't think so.

[00:18:45]>> No. All right. Okay. Uh, let's move on to this one right here. Circle learned their lesson on not freezing hacked funds. Uh, do you agree on that one?

[00:18:55]>> Hacked funds.

[00:18:56]>> So, Circle will not freeze hacked funds.

[00:18:59]>> Yeah. Okay. So, yeah, that's Yeah, that's the question. Do you think they on because they did not freeze hacked funds and they had THE CHANCE?

[00:19:07]>> OH, OKAY. I MISUNDERSTOOD. I I thought this said that they did. Um, >> no, no, no, no. Okay, so you agree. All right. Okay. So, you would >> Yeah, I agree, actually. Yeah.

[00:19:17]>> Okay. All right. So, Okay, then we went down the wrong time. Tether Yeah. Yeah.

[00:19:22]Right. Tether flips Bitcoin after a successful audit. Do you think that would happen?

[00:19:29]>> Oh, Tether's market cap versus Bitcoin.

[00:19:31]No.

[00:19:31]>> No.

[00:19:32]>> No. All right, let's go on to this one right here. Uh, Trump term will be less chaotic on markets after the midterms when he loses.

[00:19:42]>> Oh, for sure. I mean, okay. Because the third year is always amazing because the incumbents trying to, you know, keep their party in power. So they will pull out. I mean, >> whether it's putting pressure on the Fed, whether it's passing fiscal stimulus, whether it's, you know, he's already promising the biggest tax cut in history, which never delivers, but he's promising it again. So third year of presidential cycles are always, you know, the best. Okay. All right. What would be the bigger catnip for institutional investors? Would it be revenue share tokens or token buybacks? Do you think?

[00:20:24]>> Oh, it's a great question. Um, I'd give a maybe just a slight nudge to revenue share, although I like the token buyback, you know.

[00:20:32]>> Okay. Well, you're institutional, so you >> I think I think they're both both attractive, but I give a little nudge to revenue share.

[00:20:40]>> Okay. Uh, what will be the more successful new bank launch, Ripple and Circle or if Robin Hood gets their banking off the ground?

[00:20:50]>> Um, I don't think Ripple's ever going to get what they promised. So, I'll go with Robin Hood.

[00:20:58]>> Okay, Robin Hood.

[00:21:00]>> Okay, let's go. Man, Mark Yusco, this is you're coming in hot today with some good tags here. Uh what's politically worse for crypto industry uh sentiment right now, World Liberty Fi or what happened with FTX?

[00:21:14]>> Um definitely FTX. I mean, people are trying to make World Liberty out to be some big scandal, but you know, it pales in comparison in terms of dollars. Um look, presidents have taken donations from world powers. You know, they did it through their foundations.

[00:21:39]>> Sure. It's Yeah. This is just a creative crypto way.

[00:21:43]>> And you know, I it >> Why is it okay for the Clinton Foundation to accept a big giant donation from the Saudi government? I I've never understood that. Right.

[00:21:54]because if they're still in power, why should they be allowed to do that? But they were and you know, all the other presidents have foundations. So, um I just think it's it's a new age version of the same bad actor >> and >> activity. What about this one? Uh is Boomer Capital actually worried about Bitcoin quantum risk? Do you think that's a concern right now?

[00:22:17]Um, I I I just I just just on the verge of no. I think the FUD is really active.

[00:22:27]Um, I think there are some people that are worried about it, but I think generally speaking, those of us, and because I'm a boomer, those of us who who know anything about Bitcoin are not are not really worried about it. You know, quantum is is one of these things that the idea is interesting in practice. We're still a long long way away. And and I still contend that if I if I, you know, were gifted a quantum machine, the first thing I'm attacking is not Bitcoin that's worth, you know, Satoshi's coins are worth >> tens of billions. You know, the nuclear codes are worth way more than that.

[00:23:09]>> Yeah. JP Morgan's bank accounts are worth way more than that. So, I >> I just don't I don't see it. But >> here's the last question. Poly market becomes the biggest insurance marketplace for investors. What do you think?

[00:23:24]you know, so I I I'm on record saying that the uh rebranding of gambling to prediction markets is the greatest rebrand in the history of rebrands. I mean, it's like, you know, it's it's like trying to upgrade the, you know, the world's oldest profession to, you know, the escort service. I mean, it it it sounds a little better, but it's the same thing. And so I now trying to brand it as as an insurance marketplace.

[00:23:58]No, I mean it's still it's still speculation and gambling. Now can you say insurance is a form of speculation?

[00:24:05]No, it's a form of hedging and insurance is about spreading risk. So So I guess I'll circle all the way back to say it's certainly possible >> that if I'm put you in the middle. No, it's certainly possible that if people are willing to accept that this marketplace is a place to pull risk.

[00:24:32]Now, history has shown that these marketplaces don't actually develop and and the reason mostly is because regulators don't like it. Right? If you think about it for it now, >> we should have nationalized health insurance. Oh, no. No, we don't. No, of course you do. We don't want each state to be a separate risk pool. We don't want each company to be like I have, you know, 25 people in my company and I'm a risk pool. Well, that means if I have one person who has to buy an expensive drug, my premiums go crazy. That's just silly. I should pull with dozens of other groups. Yeah.

[00:25:12]>> And the more you pull your risk, the better. So I I can see the efficacy of broader faster real time updated markets being you know used for insurance.

[00:25:30]>> Yeah. Yeah. I think it I think it I think it will be I I'm kind of on the other side in the sense that >> I think polyarket is is going to go that direction with these prediction markets.

[00:25:40]Well, but hey, listen. We're going to we're going to find out how these markets come down, especially if we get some regulation built around this. Mark Yusco, always fun having you on the show. Thank you so much for coming in today. We appreciate it.

[00:25:52]>> Enjoyed it. Have a good one, Paul. We'll talk to you soon.

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