MSA: Steady as She Goes

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:06]Good morning.

[00:00:08]Michael Hartnett says the next secular bull market may belong to commodities, miners, and material stocks as AI infrastructure, geopolitics, and fiscal excess drive a late cycle nominal home boom that increasingly resembles past bubble errors. That's in Hartnett new trade it says on basic materials and miners.

[00:00:31]Second, from a prior post that's gotten some uh interest again. Uh from 2 weeks ago, Deutsche Bank says the return of history is accelerating a global reserve asset with central banks dumping dollars for gold as geopolitical fragmentation deepens. And if the trend continues, the bank says gold could surge towards 8,000 and 40% gold reserves. That's in DB 8,000 gold and 40% gold reserves.

[00:00:59]And the third item, uh Michael Oliver in his 360 report uh updates subscribers on monetary metals. We'll be discussing that in brief, in summary, uh in the uh in the uh premium section. So, stay with us.

[00:01:18]Let's start with markets. There's the homepage.

[00:01:21]10-year yields are up three, the dollar is up 17, the S&P 500 is down five.

[00:01:26]The Nasdaq is up 17, the VIX is up almost 1% at this point.

[00:01:31]Gold is down $51 on the lows of the evening at 466 4662 4662.

[00:01:40]Silver is on the lows of the evening but significantly higher uh at 8024 down a nickel. It was up 20 30 cents while gold was down last night.

[00:01:50]So, the two metals are diverging uh significantly now.

[00:01:54]Uh Shanghai silver is firm relative to the US.

[00:01:59]Copper is up percentage point and that's one of the reasons silver is being firm.

[00:02:03]That's just 26.

[00:02:05]WTI is up 250, 260.

[00:02:08]Natural gas is up about a nickel.

[00:02:11]Platinum is down 20, palladium is down 15. Gold silver weaker again.

[00:02:16]Gold silver very weak despite the market not going anywhere. Uh, we are uh, loading up for something.

[00:02:24]What? I don't know, but it it would appear to be higher.

[00:02:29]I'm not predicting that yet though.

[00:02:31]Uh, Bitcoin is down a thousand 81,000 and grains are all firmer with soybeans leading the charge.

[00:02:42]Okay, Hartnett.

[00:02:44]Hartnett's report this weekend basically says there's a new trade and it says own basic materials and miners. He doesn't focus on miners, but miners are in that group and the last time he did that miners did rally. So, Hartnett sees a broadening late cycle nominal boom led by commodities, emerging markets, materials, and AI infrastructure spending.

[00:03:06]Markets are simultaneously pricing growth, inflation, and geopolitical fragmentation. AI remains the hubris trade while unloved cyclicals become humiliation beneficiaries. The key risk is rising bond yields, which historically end speculative booms and concentrated equity leadership. So, his trade right now is what he calls a barbell trade.

[00:03:27]Own AI because it's going up and that's your hubris and own um, materials and miners uh, because they're not going up yet and that they should rotate from the rotation should go from AI into those stocks uh, very soon.

[00:03:44]Second story out a couple weeks ago.

[00:03:47]Uh, we put a special contextual intro voice note into it. Deutsche Bank argues a return of history is driving central banks, led by emerging markets, to shift reserves from dollars to gold amid rising geopolitical fragmentation.

[00:04:01]With gold share targeting around 40% of reserves, sustained official buying could push prices towards $8,000 within 5 years.

[00:04:08]Shorter, actually. They have a higher number, even under declining effects reserves scenarios.

[00:04:14]And that story was sent out a couple weeks ago. We would put it out again last night.

[00:04:18]All right.

[00:04:21]Over the weekend, late stories over the weekend, we have the founders World Cup fever hits North America. Actually, very interesting piece, if you are at all curious about the World Cup, but it's an economy within an economy, and we believe in it and in the voice note we put there that it will stoke inflation to levels that nobody is expecting.

[00:04:44]WGC's Iran's transitory war and gold's next catalyst argues, makes the case that people are pricing the Iran war as transitory, and that that will be the next catalyst. If the war turns out to not be transitory, the stagflation scenario will factor in more, and gold will be stronger on the back of the fact that oil is chronically higher. You can't have chronically higher oil and gold continually to continually selling off.

[00:05:14]And when gold trades with equities.

[00:05:17]On deck this week, CPI and PPI.

[00:05:20]Monday's existing home sales, that's today.

[00:05:23]Tuesday, CPI year-over-year and PPI as well on Wednesday. Thursday's US retail sales, and Friday is Empire State manufacturing. So, relatively busy calendar.

[00:05:34]GoldFix members, exclusive bullion pricing now available. GoldFix has partnered with Kitco Metals to give our community direct access to institutional grade physical bullion at exclusive member pricing. Through this partnership, GoldFix members can purchase gold and silver products at prices typically about 100 basis points below prevailing dealer rates.

[00:05:55]And we're going to go to the premium section here and I want to touch on just just give a broad outline of Michael Hartnett's latest. There's nothing compellingly new in terms of the rhetoric, but the the levels are new and the uh and he's updated and showing the due diligence that one should show when they have a strong opinion on the market and there's nothing wavering in his tone.

[00:06:21]Stay with us for that in a second. As well always the charts.

[00:06:26]Okay, so Michael Oliver's latest report is MSA 360 weekend report argues the macro backdrop remain